A Reexamination of Output Convergence in the U.S. States: Toward Which Level(s) are they Converging?

Abstract.  This paper reexamines the issue of output convergence among the 48 states in the continental United States. Implementing multiple panel data techniques to state per capita output during the period 1929–2001 reveals little evidence of stochastic convergence in all 48 states, but some evidence among collections of states at the regional level. This observation may suggest that output convergence in the United States has proceeded among geographically neighboring states rather than among distant states, notwithstanding the nearly complete integration of product and factor markets. Our findings appear to be robust to a subsample analysis, although the intensity of convergence varies with the choice of output measure and deflator. Industrial structures and geographic proximity are considered as potential explanations for the regional pattern of output growth dynamics.     

Mind the Gaps: The Evolution of Regional Earnings Inequalities in the U.K., 1982–1997

In this paper we apply earnings equations for U.K. regions over 1982–1997. We find evidence of rapid convergence across regions regarding the determinants of individual wages (i.e., regional fixed-effects, gender gaps, and returns to education and experience). In contrast, data on average regional earnings point to a worsening of U.K. regional inequalities and a rise in the North-South gap. Education accounts for most of the discrepancy between aggregate divergence and disaggregated convergence. First, London gained because its workforce became relatively more educated over the period. Second, returns to education increased nationwide, which favored the most educated regions (i.e., London). Third, returns to education were initially lower in London but they (partially) caught up with the rest of the country. Had returns to education and their distribution across U.K. regions remained stable over the period, the U.K. North-South divide would have decreased.     

中国互联网与区域经济

文章运用指数定律分析了中国互联网的域名地区分布、地区人均国内生产总值分布和地区人口分布,得出的结论是:中国互联网分布是地区人均国内生产总值的反映,与地区人口分布联系不大。这证实了互联网与区域经济的紧密相关性。研究中还发现,中国互联网仍然处于高速增长期;最后给出了中国互联网增长的速度,以及到达成熟稳定时期所需的时间。     

TheConvergence of the Italian Regions and Unemployment: Theory and Evidence

We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output.     

湖南省区域趋同分析

根据区域趋同基本理论,采用新古典方法分析了湖南省区域趋同状况.结果表明,自我国实施社会主义市场经济体制以来,湖南省区域经济增长总体表现为条件趋同,趋同速度约为每年1.93%.受地理区位的影响,湖南省内部区域差异较大,国家发展政策对湖南省区域趋同的影响相当显著,例如,湘西自治州纳入西部大开发增强了湖南省区域增长的收敛性.而产业结构和投资状况对于区域经济增长的作用不强.在此基础上,提出几点促进湖南省区域趋同的对策.     

The Impact of Public Capital Stock on Regional Convergence in Turkey

The effect of public capital on regional output and private sector productivity has been the subject of considerable research in the field of regional development literature. However, there have been only a few studies that develop linkages between public capital and regional economic convergence. This study examines the dynamic effects of public capital and transportation capital stocks on output per capita in terms of regional convergence in Turkey at NUTS 2 level. A conditional convergence model based on per capita gross domestic product and per capita public capital and transportation capital stocks is estimated using the panel data set for the Turkish regions for the time period of 1980–2001. The results reveal that public capital has a positive and significant effect on output per capita and thus on regional convergence in some of the models in the Turkish regions,. However, the transportation component of public capital stock has a negative effect on regional convergence in all models employed in the study. This implies that transportation capital stock leads to larger regional disparities between the Turkish regions.     

Is there Really Divergence Across Turkish Provinces? Evidence From the Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Tests

Using data on per capita income among 67 provinces in Turkey over the period 1975–2001, regional stochastic convergence is evaluated. This study employees the LM unit root test to endogenously determine the number and location of structural breaks for each province. On the contrary, convergence literature on Turkish provinces, both univariate and panel LM tests provide strong evidence for convergence except for the provinces of Bitlis and Erzurum when structural breaks are taken into account. Our empirical results are in accordance with the neoclassical model.     

我国东西部地区差异的实证研究与收敛性的R/S分析

本介绍了赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB)的计算方法,分析了我国改革开放以来的东西部人均GDP的差异,试图用分形理论中的R／S分析法分析1978--1999年我国基尼系数的收敛性约分形特征,得到赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB),进而分析这个时间序列的发展特性,并预测我国区域经济发展差异的未来变化趋势,提出政策建议,为国家的宏观调控政策提供理论上的依据。     

The Dynamics of Regional Disparities in Central and Eastern Europe during Transition

This paper examines the evolution of territorial imbalances in per capita income in the Central and Eastern Europe regions between 1990 and 2001. In order to overcome the limitations of conventional convergence analysis, we have combined a non-parametric approach that allows us to study the dynamics of the entire cross-section distribution, with a series of theoretical results and measures taken from the literature on personal income distribution. The results obtained show an overall reduction in regional inequality over the study period. This process has been compatible with the simultaneous presence of between-country convergence and within-country divergence. Likewise, we have observed a reduction in the development gap between the sample regions and Western Europe. In any event, the polarization of the distribution under consideration has decreased, while the registered level of intra-distribution mobility is relatively low. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the important role played in explaining the distribution dynamics by factors such as the national component, spatial location, productive structure, agglomeration economies and the percentage of gross domestic product devoted to investment.     

KNOWLEDGE MATTERS: THE LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF STATE INCOME GROWTH*

ABSTRACT State per capita income differences narrowed considerably between 1939 and 1976. However, this convergence has been incomplete. We examined the sources of relative per capita income growth using an augmented growth model and a panel of the 48 contiguous states from 1939 to 2004. We explored the effect of tax burdens, public infrastructure, size of private financial markets, rates of business failure, industry structure, climate, educational attainment, and technology production. Our results show that a state's technology and its college attainment rates are the main factors that allow some state's per capita income to remain above those of other states.     

Trends in real wages in Denmark since the Late Middle Ages

This article constructs long-span time series indices on wages in Denmark and explores the growth in living standards in the pre-industrial era. There were several persistent upward and downward trends in real annual earnings from 1500 to 1820, but no clear upward long-term trend. This finding seems hard to reconcile with Maddison's figure for the average annual growth in real GDP per capita in Denmark (0.17%) over the same period. This is the case, even if the growth rate in pre-industrial annual earnings is underestimated by 0.05%–0.06% per annum due to an increased number of working days.     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1970-1988: PART I (PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY)

The first of two articles devoted to spatial and temporal trends in economic development and levels of living within the USSR focuses on changes in the pattern of absolute and per capita economic output—national income produced and gross value of industrial output (at the republic and economic regional level, respectively). It then investigates the question of whether divergence or convergence has occurred among republics and economic regions in terms of these indicators. Finally, it assesses patterns of change in labor and capital productivity across Soviet republics.     

A Logistic Regression Model Explaining Recent State Casino Gaming Adoptions

The scholarly literature has argued that state fiscal stress, interstate tax competition, political feasibility, and economic development goals were the main reasons underlying the adoption of casino gaming by several American states. Archival data were collected and analyzed using logistic regression in an attempt to explain why some states have adopted casino gaming and others have not. Four statistically significant predictors of state casino gaming adoptions were discovered: moderate aggregate state ideological identifications, 1990 per capita tax rankings by state, longitudinal changes in state per capita taxes, and longitudinal changes in state job growth. These results suggest that motives related to political feasibility and economic development provide the best explanation of recent state casino gaming adoptions.     

POLLUTION ABATEMENT EXPENDITURES AND REGIONAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY*

ABSTRACT. Using a sample of 63 SMSAs for the years 1974, 1978, and 1982 I find weak support for the argument that environmental regulations retard economic activity. Regression analysis of the relationship between per unit total and air pollution abatement expenditures in the manufacturing sector of these SMSAs and manufacturing employment and earnings levels reveals that these associations are negative but that the magnitudes are relatively small. For example, 10 percent higher per unit total pollution abatement costs are associated with, on average, 1064 fewer manufacturing workers (0.17 percent of total regional employment) in Sun Belt SMSAs during 1982.     

Premature exit from and delayed entrance into the less developed status: An empirical appraisal of the structural funds allocation criterion

This paper investigates the impact of the main criterion employed by the European Commission for the allocation of the largest portion of Structural Funds, based on the threshold of the 75% of European Union (EU) average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We focus on the 2014–2020 programming period and on EU-15 regions to analyze if this criterion has penalized some of them, as a consequence of the 2004 EU enlargement, which has represented an exogenous shock in the allocation process, due to the economic backwardness of new member states. Through the application of Synthetic Control Methods and Difference-in-Differences estimators at different geographical scales, we show that regions that did not obtain the less developed status in both the programming period 2007–2013 and 2014–2020, but that would have obtained it in the period 2014–2020 without the 2004 EU enlargement, experienced a significantly lower GDP per capita growth between −10.5% and −5.7%. Conversely, territories that in the period 2014–2020 lost the less developed status, previously obtained in the time frame 2007–2013, were not characterized by a significantly lower economic growth, providing some evidence of the effectiveness of the safety net.     

Income Convergence across U.S. States: An Analysis Using Measures of Concordance and Discordance*

Abstract. This paper presents methods to analyze convergence in cross‐sectional data collected over time using distribution free statistics that are not sensitive to the magnitudes involved. Measures of concordance and discordance are employed in the empirical analysis of real personal income per capita for 48 U.S. States over the period 1929–2002. Although most States are converging with each other, some are converging faster than others. The methods used have the flexibility to focus on specific characteristics such as convergence in absolute differences or convergence in the ratio of rewards. The methods may also be used to consider convergence without switching and additionally be applied to other features such as the percentiles of the distributions.     

THE EVOLUTION OF HUMPHREY-HAWKINS*

Humphrey-Hawkins, enacted into law as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, is the most important step the Federal government has taken for overall economic coordination since passage of the Employment Act of 1946. The centerpiece of the new law is specific goals for unemployment and inflation. All Federal programs and policies are to work toward achieving a 3 percent adult and 4 percent overall jobless rate within five years, and inflation rates of 3 percent by 1983 and 0 percent by 1988. The present article outlines the major changes made in Humphrey-Hawkins from its introduction in June 1974 to its enactment in October 1978, the contents of the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, and the politics surrounding its passage.     

Human capital accumulation and long‐term income growth projections for European regions

We propose an econometric framework to construct projections for per capita income growth and human capital for European regions. Using Bayesian methods, our approach accounts for model uncertainty in terms of the choice of explanatory variables, the nature of spatial spillovers, as well as the potential endogeneity between output growth and human capital accumulation. This method allows us to assess the potential contribution of future educational attainment to economic growth and income convergence among European regions over the next decades. Our findings suggest that income convergence dynamics and human capital act as important drivers of income growth for the decades to come.     

THE EFFECTS OF COLLATERALIZABLE INCOME AND DEBT OVERHANG ON ENTREPRENEURIAL INVESTMENT IN AN OPEN REGIONAL ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT We use a two‐period model to analyze the contractual relationship between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists in an open regional economy. First, we describe the first best investment contract, we study the second best investment contract in the presence of private information, and then we examine the impact of an exogenous second‐period income endowment (collateralizable income) on investment by entrepreneurs. Next, we analyze the interaction between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists when the regional government (RG) must pay off a per capita debt (debt overhang) which it finances by taxing successful second‐period entrepreneurs. We show that a rise in the per capita debt has an effect on investment that is analogous to a fall in the second‐period income endowment. In addition, the overhang of the RG's debt discourages entrepreneurial investment.     

THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS. AGGREGATE INFORMATION*

ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time‐series methods for short‐run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state‐level data set from 1960–2001. We test the out‐of‐sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state‐level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in‐sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a “greener” median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.