A Statistical Method for Analyzing the Spatial Relationship between the Distribution of Activity Points and the Distribution of Activity Continuously Distributed over a Region

This paper shows a statistical method for analyzing the spatial relationship between the distributions of two different kinds of activity in a region. One kind of activity is discretely distributed as points in a region (such as the distribution of retail stores), and the other kind of activity is continuously distributed over the region (such as the distribution of population). First, three models representing the relationship between the above two distributions are formulated. Second, statistical methods for fitting these models to data are developed and the measures of fitness are proposed. Third, using these measures, the relationship between the distributions of thirty-seven kinds of retail stores and the distribution of population is examined in a suburb of Osaka in Japan.     

THE EFFECT OF RETAIL FIRM OWNERSHIP ON PRICE EQUILIBRIUM*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines the effect of retail firm ownership on price equilibrium using a simple linear-city model. It is shown that price divergence emerges due to the differences in retail firm ownership, because retail firms under different ownership internalize shopping externalities differently. It is also shown that if a commercial center has two specialized retail firms, these stores charge the same markup for different goods at the equilibrium.     

LOCALIZATION AND INDUSTRY CLUSTERING ECONOMETRICS: AN ASSESSMENT OF GIBBS MODELS FOR SPATIAL POINT PROCESSES

The objective of this paper is to assess an approach to statistical modeling of point referenced establishment data that permit inclusion of “environmental” or establishment‐specific covariates and specific forms of interestablishment interaction. Gibbs models are used to decompose the conditional intensity of the spatial point process into trend and interaction components. The trend is composed of access measures (primarily different classes of roads) and three different interaction processes are tested: Geyer, area interaction, and Strauss hard core. While the models used have proved to be useful in ecology, we are unaware of any applications to establishment or firm data. In empirical application, the models yield intuitively appealing results for the trend component, and the ability to specify the interaction component gives deeper insights into interestablishment spatial dynamics than any previously published methods.     

Competitive Location and Pricing on Networks

In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market tvhere a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firm seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximize profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presented to solve the model together with computational experience and an example.     

Competitive Location and Pricing on Networks

In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market where a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firm seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximize profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presented to solve the model together with computational experience and an example.     

Spatial Competition and Bounded Rationality: Retailing at the Edge of Chaos

The spatial dimension of competition among retail outlets is well researched and typically captured with spatial interaction models. A stream of theoretical research has studied the consequences of incorporating various types of dynamics into these models. We build on this research by incorporating a behavioral decision process based on bounded rationality, and by allowing for unexpected adversity in the environment in the form of exogenous shocks. Given these characteristics—spatial competition, boundedly rational decision making, and environmental adversity—we study the long-run dynamics of a model retail industry. The model reaches a stochastic steady state which is “poised,” in the sense that a shock may—or may not—trigger a wave of innovation which sweeps the entire system. Detailed investigation of this steady state shows that it has the characteristics of a general type of organization, known as self-organized criti-cality, that has been described in both theoretical biology and statistical physics.     

A NON-GAUSSIAN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF RURAL RETAIL BUSINESS COUNTS*

ABSTRACT. Determinants of the number of retail firms serving a rural area have been investigated by drawing on demand threshold analysis to analyze cross-sectional data. The relevance of such studies to an individual community may be limited if it is characterized by differential levels or unique types of economic activity. Alternatively, conducting the analysis using time-series data on an individual community may lead to problems associated with non-normal and nonstationary data. These problems are addressed by formulating a state-space model of time-series count data. The discrete, nonnegative nature of count data is accommodated by using a conjugate prior for the Poisson location parameter. A guide function is used to link the prior to the state vector and Bayes rules are used for updating.     

DOES AGGLOMERATION MATTER EVERYWHERE?: NEW FIRM LOCATION DECISIONS IN RURAL AND URBAN MARKETS*

We test whether commonly used measures of agglomeration economies encourage new firm entry in both urban and rural markets. Using new firm location decisions in Iowa and North Carolina, we find that measured agglomeration economies increase the probability of new firm entry in both urban and rural areas. Firms are more likely to locate in markets with an existing cluster of firms in the same industry, with greater concentrations of upstream suppliers or downstream customers, and with a larger proportion of college‐educated workers in the local labor supply. Firms are less likely to enter markets with no incumbent firms in the sector or where production is concentrated in relatively few sectors. The same factors encourage both stand‐alone start‐ups and establishments built by multiplant firms. Commuting decisions exhibit the same pattern as new firm entry with workers commuting from low to high agglomeration markets. Because agglomeration economies are important for rural firm entry also, policies encouraging new firm entry should focus on relatively few job centers rather than encouraging new firm entry in every small town.     

Measuring the Shape Distortions of Retail Market Areas

Existing measures of shape rely upon prespecifying boundaries and have little relationship to theory. Where definite shape boundaries do not exist, these problems can be overcome by use of weighted data points and statistical moments. Measures of various shape properties are identified, including compactness and the degree of distortion from the circular shape underlying central place theory and, the gravity model; a bivariate normal distribution is assumed. Examples are included of the application of the measures to suburban retail market areas, although the measures are applicable to all situations in which the statistical model is a reasonable assumption and only subjective boundaries of shape can be identified.     

Developing and Applying a Disaggregated Retail Location Model with Extended Retail Demand Estimations

The spatial interaction model (SIM) is an important tool for retail location analysis and store revenue estimation, particularly within the grocery sector. However, there are few examples of SIM development within the literature that capture the complexities of consumer behavior or discuss model developments and extensions necessary to produce models which can predict store revenues to a high degree of accuracy. This article reports a new disaggregated model with more sophisticated demand terms which reflect different types of retail consumer (by income or social class), with different shopping behaviors in terms of brand choice. We also incorporate seasonal fluctuations in demand driven by tourism, a major source of non‐residential demand, allowing us to calibrate revenue predictions against seasonal sales fluctuations experienced at individual stores. We demonstrate that such disaggregated models need empirical data for calibration purposes, without which model extensions are likely to remain theoretical only. Using data provided by a major grocery retailer, we demonstrate that statistically, spatially, and in terms of revenue estimation, models can be shown to produce extremely good forecasts and predictions concerning store patronage and store revenues, including much more realistic behavior regarding store selection. We also show that it is possible to add a tourist demand layer, which can make considerable forecasting improvements relative to models built only with residential demand.     

WHEN AND HOW DOES COMMUTING TO CITIES INFLUENCE RURAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH?

This paper estimates the influence that rural‐to‐urban commuting has on rural employment growth, and whether the strength and spatial reach of this effect depend on commuters’ levels of education. A main finding is that rural‐to‐urban commuting has a robust positive impact on rural employment growth in services and retail. There is no significant difference in how far these effects reach into rural Sweden for commuters with different levels of education. These results suggest that a viable policy for local employment growth in rural areas with reasonable commuting times to urban centers is to improve the commuting to urban centers.     

Transport Costs and Rural Development

Innovations that reduce costs of transport from rural locations may also reduce transport costs to rural areas. As transport costs fall, producers can afford to concentrate and achieve economies of scale. This paper explains an initially negative, but ultimately positive, relationship between reductions in transport costs and rural development. A two-region general equilibrium model with firm and worker spatial mobility highlights the firm and household location implications of costly transport-service use by both industry and agriculture in the context of scale economies and product differentiation. The computable general equilibrium model is initialized and verified with a bi-regional social accounting matrix and then used for simulations. Changes in relative transport costs are shown to affect relative regional wage rates, thus also determining the location of "production-cost-oriented" firms.     

The Multi Nearest Neighbor Distance Method for Analyzing the Compound Effect of Infrastructural Elements on the Distribution of Activity Points

We propose a statistical method to analyze the compound effect of infrastructural elements (such as stations, arterial streets, and lakes) on the distribution of activity points (such as retail stores) over a region. First, we formulate a function that explicitly shows the compound effect of infrastructural elements. Second, we show an efficient computational method for estimating this compound function from data. Third, we develop multivariate statistical methods for testing several hypotheses about these compound effects. Last, we examine the compound effect of arterial streets and subway stations on the distribution of “high-class” apartment buildings in Sumida-Kohto, Tokyo.     

A Model to Relate the Size of the Central Business District to the Population of a City

A set of dynamic models of CBD growth are developed. They hypothesize that growth rates depend upon the population growth rate together with the increasing unwillingness of people to travel to the city center as city size increases. A prediction of the model is that absolute decreases in CBD size can occur associated simply with population growth rather than technological change as is usually postulated. The models are tested using retail sales data for the United States. Good predictions are generally found, especially when the unique CBD of New York City is removed from the data set. However, the model which has the greatest theoretical validity relative to central place theory does not have the best fit to the data. Implications of this are discussed, along with those of utilizing transformations in regression models.     

Transport Infrastructure,Agglomeration Economies,and Firm Birth: Empirical Evidence from Portugal*

Abstract. This paper uses municipality‐level data to study firm birth in Portugal from 1986 to 1997. This is a period of significant improvements to the Portuguese motorway network raising important questions as to its impact on the spatial pattern of firm birth. The paper focuses on the effect of such large‐scale road investment together with the role played by agglomeration economies for firm birth in 13 industry sectors and 9 service sectors. Motorways increase the attractiveness of locations close to the new infrastructure for most sectors. However, marked differences among sectors exist in the way transport improvements affect geographical firm‐birth concentration. The results also indicate that a more diversified local economic environment encourages firm birth, but little evidence is found for agglomeration benefits stemming from sectoral specialization at the local level.     

ON THE INEQUALITY OF RURAL SERVICES PROVISION IN THE USSR

Results of studies of inter- and intra-regional variation of rural services provision (including retail trade, cultural-educational services, and health care) are compared. Highest levels of per capita services provision were found in the Baltic republics and RSFSR, with lower levels in the southern European USSR, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia. The differences are attributed to rural depopulation (northwestern USSR), rural development priorities in areas of severe natural conditions (Siberia), and high rates of natural population increase (Central Asia). A differential approach in services planning is recommended between areas located near oblast urban centers and those which are more remote (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

上海城市功能与人口郊区迁移的特征和影响分析

随着我国进入城市化发展高峰期,城市产业功能和人口的郊区化趋势日益显著,速度不断加快。在我国特有的城乡二元化管理体制下,郊区化过程中城市人口与产业功能的郊区迁移对城市结构转型以及郊区城市化具有怎样的影响仍需要进一步探讨分析。本文根据区县一级的城市建设与人口等相关统计数据,总结近十年来上海城市功能和人口郊区迁移过程中城市空间结构转型的主要特征,分析郊区化对郊区人口城市化、城镇建设与产业发展的影响作用,辨明其中存在的主要问题,并从城市功能布局合理化和促进郊区发展的角度出发提出对策建议。     

A Partitioning Model of Urban Retail Structure

A model based on renewal theory generates the number of retail establishments in a place as the outcome of a competitive partitioning process. The available market, measured for example by population or by existing retail sales, is shared among businesses until no market potential market remains. Competing businesses obtain different shares of the market, and the number of establishments is predicted as a discrete random variable. Several alternative formulations are presented of varying generality. One version is successfully tested, using GLIM, on ten business types (SIC two-digit classes) in 232 cities of New York State for 1977 and 1987. The model correctly predicts the form and the variance structure of the relationship between number of establishments and place size. It is shown how the model may be combined with models of city-size distributions to predict aggregate frequency distributions of retail establishments across urban systems.     

大城市居民对城郊乡村旅游地的感知研究——以南京市为例

本文依据第一手调查数据资料,运用基于现代统计软件SPSS的统计分析法,以南京市为例,研究了大城市居民对城郊乡村旅游地的感知情况,并进一步探讨了感知在人口学特征方面的差异性、总体印象与各要素评价之间的相关关系,在此基础上,对总体印象进行了回归分析,以探寻它与各要素评价之间的具体关系。结果表明,有关城郊乡村旅游地的感知与评价水平不高,在人口学特征方面的差异性不尽相同,总体印象与各具体要素评价之间存在着显著的正相关关系,其中,乡村风光、餐饮、旅游服务和住宿四个方面的感知评价对总体印象影响较大。