上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China

Two noted academic specialists on labor economics and population statistics of China examine the impacts of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the job security of urban workers, and the ensuing repercussions for the Chinese society and economy. More specifically, they probe and determine the magnitude of urban unemployment in China in 2008 and 2009 as it appears to be reported in different segments of the country's immense labor market. A particular focus of the paper is on differences in unemployment among two groups of workers (those with urban hukou vis-à-vis rural migrant workers) with significantly different sets of rights and privileges, as well as levels of job security. The authors also provide an estimate of the urban unemployment rate in 2009 that differs from the official rate. They argue that measures toward further integration of rural and urban labor markets and reducing natural unemployment are ultimately more beneficial than short-term interventions to adjust cyclical joblessness stemming from the global economic crisis and recession.     

REGIONAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NETHERLANDS: EVIDENCE OF AGGLOMERATION AND CONGESTION EFFECTS*

ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labor productivity levels and growth. We find substantial effects, accounting for roughly half of the explained variation in the labor productivity differences within the Netherlands in the 1990s. Diversification, urbanization, and localization effects are significant and positive for productivity levels. These levels appear cointegrated. The error correction specification of productivity growth surprisingly reflects negative agglomeration effects. From the theoretical model it follows that congestion effects must have taken precedence over agglomeration effects during this period. Both agglomeration and congestion effects are dampened by job density in neighboring regions. Finally, policy simulations with the estimated model show that spatial concentration is more harmful to national productivity growth than spatial dispersion.     

THE EFFECT OF URBANIZATION ON LABOR TURNOVER*

ABSTRACT The paper empirically examines labor market matching as a source of urban agglomeration economies. We work from the hypothesis that job turnover leads to tighter labor matches and estimate the relationship between urbanization and the job mobility of young men. Using a panel from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we find evidence that young men change jobs more frequently in their early career if they live in larger or in more educated urban areas. The sensitivity of the results to whether the young men were “movers” or “stayers” suggests the possible endogeneity of location.     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

新疆墨玉县农村劳动力转移调查及动力机制研究

近年来,南疆少数民族农村劳动力转移的规模不断扩大,外出务工收入成为当地农民收入的主要来源之一。本文在分析墨玉县农村劳动力转移现状的基础上根据2007年的抽样调查数据和2002年以来墨玉县经济社会发展的相关数据,采用多层次多因素灰色关联分析和Logistic回归分析,从宏观和微观两个层面上探讨劳动力转移的动力机制。宏观层面上,农村基本经济指标与劳动力转移的关系密切;微观层面影响农村劳动力转移的驱动力按强弱依次为家庭人口数、是否为低收入户、在读学生数、户均可耕地面积等。最后得出结论,新疆少数民族农村劳动力转移的主要驱动力来自农村内部,来自城镇的拉力作用不明显,而受自然条件、经济发展水平和民族观念等因素的影响,劳动力转移的摩擦力较大。     

DISGUISED,URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT This paper integrates the theory of segmented labor markets with the Ranis-Fei model of dualism to analyze two types of unemployment; disguised unemployment in the rural sector and urban unemployment. The major results obtained are (1) sector-specific accumulation in the urban area may raise unemployment and lower welfare and (2) sector-specific accumulation in the rural sector always raises welfare but increases disguised unemployment. These results highlight the importance of regional resource allocation and the role of the agricultural sector in reducing urban unemployment.     

Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows

In this paper we study the economic determinants of Spanish interregional labor force flows from an aggregate perspective. The study is based on a matching model of the labor market applied to migration, and uses gross rather than net flows as other studies do. Among the main results, we find that unemployment increases out-migration because unemployed people search more actively, but when the unemployment rate is above a certain level this effect is reduced. We also find that the rate of change of relative wages is a significant determinant of migration in Spain.     

JOB CHAINS AND WAGE CURVES: WORKER MOBILITY AND MARSHALLIAN SURPLUSES IN EVALUATING REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH*

ABSTRACT In theory, new regional jobs yield two distinct sources of welfare gains to workers: (1) mobility gains achieved by workers as they move up job chains and (2) traditional Marshallian surpluses enjoyed by all workers as labor markets tighten. In the past, we have argued that the second channel is likely to be small relative to the first. This paper integrates a chain model (using PSID job change data) with a modified‐Marshallian model based on “wage curves” (estimated from CPS data) to formalize and test that argument. High wage jobs with modest wage–unemployment elasticities show Marshallian effects only 10 percent to 20 percent the size of mobility effects. Low wage jobs with somewhat higher elasticities show Marshallian effects from 40 percent to 70 percent the size of mobility effects.     

陕西劳动力转移与城镇化发展关系研究

从陕西劳动力结构变化及劳动力转移与城镇化相对速度的比较入手,提出了陕西劳动力转移与城镇化进程中存在的问题,并对影响陕西劳动力转移与城镇化的机制进行了实证分析,最后作出总结,得出了加快陕西城镇化良性发展和劳动力合理转移的启示。     

Concentration Effects,Spatial Mismatch,or Neighborhood Selection? Exploring Labor Market and Neighborhood Variations in Male Unemployment Risk Using Census Microdata from Great Britain

A classification of census enumeration districts has recently been added to the 1991 British Census 2% Sample of Anonymised Records (SAR). Through the use of multilevel modeling techniques, the area classification information on the SAR is used to investigate geographical differences in unemployment. Previous research has indicated that where a person lives can affect their propensity to unemployment. However, the understanding of these relationships are confounded by the reciprocal nature of the relationship between unemployment, housing, and geographical location. This paper examines the relative importance of the individual, the type of neighborhood of residence, and the local labor market in which one lives in explaining variations in unemployment risk. It also examines the role of housing tenure at an individual and contextual level in mediating this relationship. Two competing hypotheses are evaluated. The first is that local concentrations of unemployment are the result of the process of neighborhood selection. The other suggests there are contextual affects on unemployment risk, which may include access to job opportunities and “concentration effects.” The paper concludes that most neighborhood level variation in unemployment is due to housing market effects, particularly neighborhood selection. As well as offering insights into the relationship between unemployment and geographical location, this paper aims to demonstrate methodological innovations in the analysis of census microdata. In particular it shows how area classifications can be used in conjunction with microdata in a multilevel modeling framework, to get a better understanding of the role of individual and contextual factors in social processes.     

拉萨八廓街旅游劳工移民地方融入研究

地方融入是地方理论的延展和应用领域,其本土化实践与理论研究还有待推进.本文以拉萨八廓街的旅游劳工移民为研究对象,采用关键词网络分析和扎根理论,结合四层一体分析框架,探索该群体的地方融入现状和过程.研究表明:①拉萨八廓街旅游劳工移民地方融入过程可划分为自评、动机、实践和依恋4个阶段;②拉萨的社会氛围体现在对外的高度包容性...     

SECTORAL CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT DURING THE GREAT RECESSION,IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

I examine the effect of sectoral change on U.S. state unemployment during the Great Recession. Of the 4.1 percentage point increase in mean state unemployment between 2007 and 2009, increased structural change explains 0.6–1.18 percentage points, and increased estimated effects of structural change 0.8–2.7 percentage points. Despite the role of housing in the recession, neither construction nor any other one sector can account for the results. Although the pace and role of structural change had returned to normal levels after the Great Recession, their effects persisted, raising mean state unemployment by 0.9–2.3 percentage points in 2011.     

Iranian Youth in Times of Economic Crisis

Young people play an important role in shaping Iran's politics but have only a marginal role in its economy. Youth (ages 15–29) are more than one-third of the country's population and are better educated than the generation they are replacing, while accounting for more than two-thirds of the unemployed. Demographics have thrown the marriage market out of balance, with a “shortage of men” of about 25 percent, while economic pressures have reduced the ability of youth to get married and form families. The higher education system has expanded to absorb ever greater numbers of youth but because education quality is low this has not helped in reducing unemployment. The demographic pressures have amplified since 2008 when the economy entered a period of stagnation. The economic crisis has hit Iran's youth particularly hard, especially those from lower economic backgrounds because the country's rigid formal labor market preserves jobs for older workers. The record number of youth entering the labor market has to wait longer for a regular job or has to take up part-time and informal jobs. In either case, their difficulties in marriage and family formation are intensified.     

劳动力流动、地方感与农户参与人居环境整治行为

本文构建了"劳动力流动—地方感—人居环境整治行为"的理论分析框架,利用913户微观调研数据,采用有序Probit模型分析了劳动力流动对农户参与人居环境整治行为的影响,并进一步运用Boot-strap 方法验证了 地方感在劳动力流动影响农户参与人居环境整治过程中发挥的中介作用.研究结果表明:①家庭劳动力外流抑制了农户参与...     

TheConvergence of the Italian Regions and Unemployment: Theory and Evidence

We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output.     

PERSISTENCE OF REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT: APPLICATION OF A SPATIAL FILTERING APPROACH TO LOCAL LABOR MARKETS IN GERMANY*

ABSTRACT The geographical distribution and persistence of regional/local unemployment rates in heterogeneous economies (such as Germany) have been, in recent years, the subject of various theoretical and empirical studies. Several researchers have shown an interest in analyzing the dynamic adjustment processes of unemployment and the average degree of dependence of the current unemployment rates or gross domestic product from the ones observed in the past. In this paper, we present a new econometric approach to the study of regional unemployment persistence, in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment. First, we propose an econometric procedure suggesting the use of spatial filtering techniques as a substitute for fixed effects in a panel estimation framework. The spatial filter computed here is a proxy for spatially distributed region‐specific information (e.g., the endowment of natural resources, or the size of the “home market”) that is usually incorporated in the fixed effects coefficients. The advantages of our proposed procedure are that the spatial filter, by incorporating region‐specific information that generates spatial autocorrelation, frees up degrees of freedom, simultaneously corrects for time‐stable spatial autocorrelation in the residuals, and provides insights about the spatial patterns in regional adjustment processes. We present several experiments in order to investigate the spatial pattern of the heterogeneous autoregressive coefficients estimated for unemployment data for German NUTS‐3 regions. We find widely heterogeneous but generally high persistence in regional unemployment rates.     

东北地区劳动力国际流动的特点、影响因素与对策研究

本文分析了东北地区劳动力国际流动数量和营业额在全国的地位、去往国别、从事的行业等特点,论述和分析了影响东北地区劳动力国际流动的有利和不利因素。针对存在的问题,提出了发展东北地区劳动力国际流动的基本对策。     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN LABOR DEMAND ELASTICITY: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES

We use a large panel dataset covering the period 1988–2010 to estimate county specific own‐wage elasticity of labor demand in the U.S. for four highly aggregated industries: construction, finance/insurance/real‐estate/service, manufacturing, and retail trade. Our estimation of a random parameter panel data model yields significant evidence of spatial variations in wage elasticity of labor demand. We relate the spatial variation in elasticity to differences in county characteristics like industry specialization, industry competition, levels of natural amenity and urbanization. Using a regression discontinuity approach we also find that probusiness states have higher labor demand elasticity.     

Employment Change in Occupations in Urban India: Implications for Wage Inequality

This article analyses employment and wage change patterns in India for a period spanning almost three decades, from 1983–84 to 2011–12. Using data from the National Sample Survey Organization, the study finds evidence of job polarization (employment growth in low‐ and high‐skill jobs and decline in middle‐skill jobs) in urban India during the 1990s and 2000s, and employment upgrading in the 1980s. Consistent with the literature on job polarization, the article finds a reduction in employment share in routine task intensive occupations. The author argues that this reduction is a result of both mechanization and technological upgrading within Indian industry. On the other hand, an increase in employment share in both low‐skill and high‐skill occupations is argued to be a result of growing self‐employment and informal sector employment in urban India. The wage change patterns are largely consistent with the employment change patterns. The analysis suggests that structural change in occupation is an important factor for understanding earnings inequality in India.