DISGUISED,URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT This paper integrates the theory of segmented labor markets with the Ranis-Fei model of dualism to analyze two types of unemployment; disguised unemployment in the rural sector and urban unemployment. The major results obtained are (1) sector-specific accumulation in the urban area may raise unemployment and lower welfare and (2) sector-specific accumulation in the rural sector always raises welfare but increases disguised unemployment. These results highlight the importance of regional resource allocation and the role of the agricultural sector in reducing urban unemployment.     

A STRUCTURAL EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN LABOR DEMAND*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses a large data base to study metropolitan labor demand functions. The data are disaggregated by two-digit SICs in manufacturing for SMS As, and are corrected for changing SMSA boundaries. Labor demand elasticities are estimated for factor and commodity prices, transportation costs, state and local taxes and expenditures, and production-function shifters. Estimates from different years allow one to test Le Chatelier's principle in the context of interregional change.     

COMPETITIVE AND IMPERFECTLY COMPETITIVE LABOR MARKETS IN URBAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. In this paper, I present a model incorporating two kinds of spatial labor markets: a centralized competitive market at the central business district (CBD) and dispersed local markets across economic space under imperfect competition. Wage differentials and the size of the two types of markets are endogenously determined by rational choices of workers as well as profit maximization of firms. Workers can exercise rational choices with respect to market places where they commute and supply their labor. In this model, I attempt, in effect, to integrate the Hotelling-type paradigm and the Samuelson-type paradigm in a consistent spatial setting.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF SPATIAL PRODUCT AND LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT A simple general equilibrium model relates spatial product markets and spatial labor markets. The firm is treated as being a spatial monopolist or as a Löschian competitor in the output market and as a spatial monopsonist in the labor market. Derived free spatial demand and free regional labor supply are defined, and their properties examined. The model provides the framework for analyzing the impact of a technological improvement in labor productivity on the structure of the spatial markets. The impact of entry on spatial labor supply is an important determinant of whether or not entry lowers wages and raises output prices. Unlike the spaceless competitive paradigm, zero-profit long-run equilibrium can occur in a space economy under conditions of increasing returns to scale.     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

COMPENSATION FOR COMMUTES IN THE LAND AND LABOR MARKETS: SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA*

ABSTRACT. Recent research suggests that in nonmonocentric cities compensation for commutes takes the form of both lower housing prices and higher wages. This paper develops a random utility model that predicts the probability of an actor choosing to commute between each residence and job in a metropolitan area conditional on the observed location of housing units and job sites. The model allows commuting time, origin-specific amenities, land prices, destination-specific amenities and wages to influence actors' choices. We estimate the model using maximum likelihood and generalized least squares techniques and data on commuting between each of 38 origin and 15 destination jurisdictions in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The empirical results show that, all else equal, a one percent increase in commuting time reduces the probability that a route (origin-destination combination) will be chosen by almost five percent. Origin-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into land prices and destination-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into wages. Desirable residential amenities include school quality and a low ratio of day to night population. Desirable workplace amenities include a large share of white collar jobs and a high density of employment.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES APPROACHES TO MODELING INTERSECTORAL AND INTERCOUNTY EMPLOYMET LINKAGES IN RURAL REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. The performance of five criteria for identifying significant interregional labor market linkages is compared. The criteria suggest differential model specifications based on the implicit tradeoff between parsimony and specification bias. Models were specified using: Akaike's final prediction error; Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion; an input-output model; Aoki's time series algorithm; and a combined input-outputi/time series approach. Models of the changes in monthly employment for twelve industries in six regions in northeastern Utah were specified using each criterion. Models based on Schwarz's criterion and the input-output criterion were preferred to those based on other criteria.     

PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS AND THE DISAGGREGATION OF LABOR INPUTS IN MANUFACTURING PLANTS*

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the assumption of homogeneous labor inputs underlying the production functions in many regional models. The results indicate that nonproduction and production labor within manufacturing plants are not strongly separable, and the homogeneous labor assumption is not therefore appropriate. Hence, regional models need to take this into account in order to give reliable results. Differences between industries provide useful additional insights into their labor and capital relationships.     

EMPLOYMENT CYCLES AND PROCESS INNOVATION IN REGIONAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE*

Regional employment cycles, the demand for skilled and unskilled labor, and process innovations are analyzed in the context of an industry product cycle. Employment fluctuations caused by endogenous technological change lead to spatial decentralization of production facilities through capital relocation and spatial divisions of labor. A capital investment profile suggested by the product cycle scenario is related to employment cycles. A price system for output is outlined in terms of wages and profits over the product cycle.     

SPATIAL DEPENDENCE AND SPATIAL STRUCTURAL INSTABILITY IN APPLIED REGRESSION ANALYSIS*

The stability of regression coefficients over the observation set (“regional homogeneity”) is typically assessed by means of a Chow test or within a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) framework. When spatial error autocorrelation is present in cross-sectional equations the traditional tests are no longer applicable. I evaluate this both in formal terms as well as empirically. I introduce a taxonomy of spatial effects in models for structural instability, and discuss its implication for testing. I compare the performance of traditional tests, robust approaches, maximum-likelihood procedures and pretest techniques by means of a series of simple Monte Carlo experiments.     

INDUSTRIAL CENTERS AND REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCAL INPUTS*

ABSTRACT. A large proportion of regional production takes place in nontraded goods and services. In addition, significant productivity increases can be observed in some segments of this sector. Starting from these two empirical observations we construct a model of growth in a two-region setting with factor mobility. The growth process is based on endogenous technological change in the nontraded input sector, whose output serves as an input in the production of one of the two final goods, the so-called industrial good. We consider two extreme cases, one with locally limited, the other with interregional knowledge spillovers. Conditions are established under which interior solutions with production of local inputs and steady-state growth in both regions result, and others under which we find a core-periphery pattern with growth concentrated in one region only. The stability of the equilibria is discussed by considering the transition processes. Finally, it is shown that catching-up as well as leapfrogging may occur, if new technologies become available.