RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND NEIGHBORHOOD QUALITY*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents evidence on the factors causing residential mobility within inner-city neighborhoods. A theoretical model is presented which posits that intraurban mobility is a response to housing consumption disequilibrium. Our data and methodology permitted more accurate measurement of disequilibrium than in previous studies, including the disequilibrium arising from neighborhood change. The major conclusion we draw from our results is that households' perceptions of the level of neighborhood quality and its change influence the mobility decisions of both renters and homeowners residing within central cities. Also, in comparison to other measured factors, neighborhood variables were found to be strong mobility predictors regardless of housing tenure. Our results imply that neighborhood improvement policies may succeed in stabilizing inner-city neighborhoods.     

HOUSING CONSTRUCTION, VACANCY CHAINS, AND RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY IN WINDSOR

R esidential m obility is one of the most important forces underlying changes in the social composition and physical characteristics of urban areas (Rossi 1955, p. 2). Consequently, numerous studies on residential migration have been carried out in order to comprehend this process better and thereby aid in the assessment of migration theories and in the development of appropriate models. Mobility studies have examined the characteristics of outmigration areas and households, motivations to move, satisfaction achieved through relocation, and the impact of residential changes. However, as Maher (1974) points out, previous analyses are incomplete in that they tend to focus on the demand characteristics of residential relocation and to omit the supply side of the process, the available housing stock. This study attempts to rectify this omission by considering the provision of newly constructed single-family detached housing in Windsor and the resultant migration patterns and processes through vacancy chain analysis. The demand and supply concepts of residential mobility are examined with regard to the housing multiplier generated by different locations and values of new homes, the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households at various positions in the turnover process, the reasons for moving, and the spatial patterns of residential moves originating from new housing. In addition, by focusing on a specific form of housing the study avoids problems which may arise from aggregate level analyses of households adjusting to new housing opportunities.     

MODELING RESIDENTIAL CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a new approach in the modeling of residential choices for simulation purpose. The originality of the approach resides in the way recent developments in stochastic choice models are combined with deterministic mathematical programming which allows to define an equilibration process for simulation. In that respect, ex ante probabilities of housing choice based on random utility maximization under perceived constraints are distinguished from ex post probabilities of choice that respect supply constraints. The proposed model is tested on the Montreal Metropolitan Region, and a few simulation results based on a scenario of population aging and decrease in household size are analyzed.     

UNCERTAIN INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE AND LOCATION CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we adapt recent developments in uncertainty modeling to the location choice paradigm. In particular, we analyze the impact of income and housing price uncertainty on housing demand and location demand characteristics in a partial equilibrium framework. We begin by recognizing that housing consumption cannot readily be altered in response to changes in income and price. We find that income and house price risk affect housing and location demands in different ways. Additionally, the spatial characteristics of price risk also affect consumer housing and location demands. For example, if housing price risk is lower farther from the central city, housing demand can be greater in those locations even with the higher transportation cost. Thus, over some locations, the expected price gradient could be positive.     

LIFETIME MOBILITY: INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF LABOUR MOBILITY, RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND HOUSEHOLD CYCLE

The existence of interrelations between different mobility forms is generally recognized, but they are not often studied. This article attempts to disentangle the complicated ways in which mobility decisions regarding labour, the house, and home-work travelling are related to each other and to phases in the life cycle. An empirical analysis is carried out from the perspective of individual life histories of employees in the medical sector. Their mobility careers are followed while their biographies unfold through a succession of socio-economic and demographic stages. It is shown how motives and patterns of mobility create and change the composition of certain social life-stage groups and determines who belongs to them.
L'existence d'interrelations entre formes de mobilité différentes est, en général, acceptée mais elle n'est pas souvent investiguée. Cet article vise à décrire d'une manière plus simple les décisions par rapport à la mobilité de travail, au logement et aux dieAplacements logement-travail, ainsi que leurs associations et leurs relations avec les étapes dans le cycle de vie. Une analyse empirique est menée dans la perspective des histoires de vie individuelle des employés du secteur médical. L'his-toire de leur mobilité est tracée et les biographies dévoilées selon une succession d'étapes socio-écono-mique et démographique. II est démontré comment les motifs et modèles de mobilité sont créés et comment ils changent la composition et l'appartenance à certains groupes sociaux durant leur vie.     

ANALYSIS OF A DYNAMIC RESIDENTIAL LOCATION CHOICE MODEL WITH TRANSACTION COSTS*

ABSTRACT. This paper incorporates transaction costs in a residential location choice model. An individual's choice is assumed to be an outcome of a two-stage process: a decision to change, or to undertake a transaction and, conditional on a change occurring, a choice of a new alternative. The dynamic choice model is aggregated to yield a Markovian model of residential location patterns. It is shown that recent contributions to dynamical urban modeling correspond to special cases of the deterministic version of this model. The Markovian model is used in a theoretical analysis of the influence of transaction costs on the properties of the stationary state. The effects of residential mobility rates and of interdependencies among individuals, caused by supply-side and density-related interactions, are also analyzed. It is shown how these dynamical factors modify the stationary state, thereby demonstrating the type of errors which may occur with static models that omit them.     

HIGH-TECHNOLOGY JOBS AND WORKER MOBILITY*

ABSTRACT. The premise of this paper is that one can discover much about the location determinants of high-technology industry by examining the location (migration) decision of workers with high-technology occupations. A model of the high-technology worker migration decision is developed that permits estimation of worker response to both personal and area characteristics, the latter chosen to mirror location factors often cited by high-technology firms as important for both the attraction and retention of their specialized work force. Logit estimates of this model between 1975 and 1980 are presented. The paper is concluded with a discussion of policy implications.     

NETWORK LOADING VERSUS EQUILIBRIUM ESTIMATION OF THE STOCHASTIC ROUTE CHOICE MODEL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND LEAST SQUARES REVISITED*

Daganzo (1977, 1979), Daganzo and Sheffi (1977), Sheffi (1985), and Sheffi and Daganzo (1980) have used one assumption about traveler behavior in developing estimation techniques for the stochastic route-choice problem and another assumption in predicting flows on networks by using the same model. In estimation, they calculate the congested travel costs of the network links from observed flows on the network, and the network is loaded based on these costs. In prediction, they follow their stochastic user-equilibrium assumption by which travelers evaluate costs using the mean of the observed flows (or equilibrium flows). The travel-cost coefficient obtained from the loading method systematically overestimates the true travel-cost coefficient from which the observed flow data (which must be used in loading) is generated. The estimates of the same coefficient, obtained in this paper, by constraining the estimation results to conform to the equilibrium conditions are unbiased, and only marginally less efficient (have larger standard deviations). The average percentage error and inefficiency of the link flow predictions based on the loading method increases as the level of congestion on the network rises. In contrast, the average percentage error of link flow predictions based on the equilibrium estimation method declines and their efficiency remains very high as the level of congestion on the network rises.     

CAPITALIZATION OF URBAN TRAVEL IMPROVEMENTS INTO RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: SIMULATIONS WITH A UNIFIED MODEL OF HOUSING,TRAVEL MODE AND SHOPPING CHOICES*

ABSTRACT. An equilibrium model of multimodal travel time improvements is developed and calibrated for the New York Metropolitan Area. The model employs a unified treatment of housing type, residential location and commuting mode choices with shopping (destination, frequency and mode) choices. Benefits of halving subway headways are reflected in consumer surplus and capitalized into producer surplus, with the latter divided between housing and commercial real estate. Sensitivity tests and simulations on other modes are also presented. Unlike the subway mode, across-the-board travel time improvements for bus, auto and commuter rail reduce central area housing rents, but auto improvements yield higher total benefits and increases in commercial rents.     

HETEROGENEOUS TASTES AND RESIDENTIAL LOCATION*

ABSTRACT. In a simple urban model, where the only spatial distinction made is between center and suburb, we introduce a uniform distribution of preferences for land. Under a logarithmic utility function, we examine how the location and consumption decisions of individuals differ in consequence of their different preferences for land. Comparative statics indicate that the qualitative response of the city at equilibrium to changes in per capita income and transportation cost is not affected by the introduction of such heterogeneity. Possible extensions are also briefly discussed.     

HOUSING SUBSIDIES AND URBAN HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines how housing subsidies affect housing and location demands in a monocentric market, identifying the extent to which policies prompt targeted populations to congregate more or less intensely in the central city. Various subsidies are studied: rents based on ability to pay, lump-sum housing aid, housing vouchers, and subsidies based on percentage of rent. The demand effects are seen to hinge critically upon whether or not subsidies are tied to binding consumption restrictions. Policy impacts are shown to be identical for both CBD employed and locally employed consumers targeted for the housing policies.