Climate security,risk assessment and military planning

Climate and environmental changes pose emerging and unique challenges to international security—as the global community experiences issues of food insecurity, severe droughts and floods—and have cascading impacts on energy supplies and infrastructure. Environmental hazards may shift abruptly, posing new risks to vulnerable systems and critical nodes in ways that diverge from historical experience. Effective risk assessments and planning will require understanding of how climate change will affect natural disasters and disaster response, and how hazards may be more extreme or unique from past experiences. This article discusses the role of climate change in affecting security planning from a military perspective, and how integration of scientific data and intelligence methods can foster assessment and effective response.     

Climate and energy security policies and measures: synergies and conflicts

Concerns about climate and energy security are leading to increased government intervention in the energy sector, in particular as they relate to the choice of energy supply options. While many of these options will improve both energy and climate security, many measures will benefit one while harming the other. This raises an important question for governments and energy planners: how can conflicts between climate and energy security be resolved? This article outlines some of the barriers and problems that may arise as governments and companies try to address climate and energy security concerns simultaneously in various energy supply areas. It concludes by arguing against choosing one objective over the other, and by outlining steps that can be taken to help resolve conflicts between the two agendas.     

The military covenant and the civil–military contract in Britain

Is the British civil–military contract strained to breaking point? The contemporary portrayal of British civil–military relations is bleak, with academics, politicians, the media and military charities arguing that military–societal relations are in urgent need of repair. Through assessing the extent to which the reciprocal expectations of the armed forces and the British public are realized, this article will argue that the moral contract, although under stress, is not breaking. Underlying social trends and the use of doctrinal concepts such as the military covenant have, combined with recent operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, altered the expectations of both sides causing tensions within military–societal relations. Yet, while the armed forces do harbour unrealized expectations of the British public who are unwilling or unable to support the use of the military in recent conflicts, neither the public nor the military is so disillusioned with the performance of the other for the relationship to be described as breaking or broken.     

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举,以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析,发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过,空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择,这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的,但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关,包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担,由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。     

Perilous shipwreck, misery and unhappiness: the British military at Tristan da Cunha, 1816–1817

After losing the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, Napoleon was exiled to St Helena. As part of the arrangements to keep him secure, the British annexed the island of Tristan da Cunha to deny its possible use to French rescue forces. The military remained on the island for fifteen months, an unpleasant experience, especially given the loss of 55 people in the wreck of H.M.S. Julia in 1817. Using evidence from holdings in the National Maritime Museum in Greenwich, this paper studies the experiences of the British on the island during 1816 and 1817, illuminating the chaotic military operation and also the difficulties of habitation on Tristan da Cunha. However, the present population of the island traces its origin back to one of the garrison who remained there after 1817.     

From security blanket to security risk: scientists in the decade after Hiroshima

Aside from a number of early prophesies of abundant and cheap nuclear power, and increased supplies of isotopes for medical research, diagnosis and therapy, visions of the Atomic Age were overwhelmingly troublesome in the aftermath of Hiroshima. Not only did nuclear Armageddon seem likely to many observers, the steps taken to enhance national security in the United States cast classes of citizens into the doleful category of “security risk.” Scientists were among those feared—a stunning (and almost instantaneous) change from their perception in August 1945 as the nuclear wizards who brought World War II to an end. National security was the dominant factor in this transformation, but there were nuances to it. This article attempts a taxonomy of the ways in which scientists were viewed in the United States.     

British civil–military relations and the problem of risk

Drawing primarily on the experience of the UK since 2001, this article examines the increasing prevalence of risk as an organizing concept for western defence and security planning and its implications for civil–military relations and strategy‐making. It argues that there may be tensions between such approaches and the principles of good strategy‐making, which aim to link means and resources to ends in a coherent manner. Not only does risk potentially blur the relationship between means and ends in the strategy‐making process, it also exposes it to contestation, with multiple interpretations of what the risks actually are and the strategic priority (and commitment) which should be attached to them. The article examines these tensions at three levels of risk contestation for British defence: institutions, operations and military–society relations. In the case of the UK, it contends that the logic of risk has not been able to provide the same national motivation and sense of strategic purpose as the logic of threat. In this context, calls for a reinvigoration of traditional strategy‐making or a renewed conception of national interest may be missing a more fundamental dissonance between defence policy, civil–military relations and the wider security context. More widely, the strategic ennui that some western states have been accused of may not simply be a product of somehow falling out of the habit of strategy‐making or an absence of ‘political will’. Instead, it may reflect deeper social and geostrategic trends which constrain and complicate the use of military force and obscure its utility in the public imagination.     

Split parties finish last: Preferences,pluralities and the 1957 Queensland election

The 1957 election is a watershed in Queensland politics. Coming after the Labor split, the election saw the end of over 40 years of almost uninterrupted Labor rule in Queensland. Often overlooked in discussions of this key period is that the 1957 election was conducted under plurality rule, or as it is more commonly known, ‘first‐past‐the‐post’. Had the 1957 election been held under preferential voting, preferences would have been distributed in 46 of the 71 contested seats. Through simulations of distributions of hypothetical second preferences I assess the effects of the Labor split on the fates of the respective parties. Contrary to some interpretations of the 1957 election I find that plurality rule saved Labor from even greater electoral losses than those they would have sustained under preferential voting. Single‐member constituency electoral systems deal harsh punishment to small parties, or, as in 1957, split parties: a point well known by astute political leaders. Preferential voting may have given Labor leaders even more powerful incentives to heal the split of 1957, and perhaps even avoid it in the first place.     

Changes in Chilean identity: thirty years after the military coup

ABSTRACT. The objective of this article is to explore whether events, starting with the 1973 military coup and ocurring during the seventeen‐year‐long dictatorship, have caused or influenced important changes in the Chilean national identity. After a brief theoretical discussion, an analysis is made of the upheavals that occurred in Chile during the last thirty years seeking to assess what tensions they have introduced within Chilean identity. As a consequence some changes are detected which can be seen at the level of public discourses on Chilean identity with the emergence or rekindling of military‐racial, Catholic and entrepreneurial narratives. But the most important change that Chilean identity has suffered has to do with the development of an internal fracture stemming from the division introduced by the military regime. In so far as the contents of identity are concerned, the article focuses on the decline in acknowledgement of shared symbols of the nation, the persistence of a pervasive collective anxiety, a recurrence of belief in Chilean exceptionalism, and fading respect for politicians and democracy. These aspects are oddly coupled with rising belief in voluntarism and the possibility of sustained economic growth, increased resort to the market rather than political life as the site of recognition, acceptance of malaise as the price of economic progress and a remarkable centrality of human rights issues.     

Improving the global environment: policies,principles and institutions

Recent surveys in Australia show that improving the global environment rates high as a public policy concern. Responding to these challenges at a global level requires more than finding the best or most appropriate scientific, economic and technical approaches. It also requires that global environmental governance be based on sound normative principles. Two of the most important principles respond to the challenge that, while humanity is outstripping its ecological footprint, contributions to global environmental change are uneven and the experience of environmental harm is being displaced across time and space. Improving the global environment should therefore take into account the precautionary principle and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Improving the global environment also requires a more robust institutional framework. The model favoured here is to build on UNEP to establish a more coherent, more authoritative and more independent environmental organization.     

Border protection,the 2001 Australian election and the coalition victory

While the issue of refugees and asylum-seekers has preoccupied many European countries, until the November 2001 federal election Australia had largely been immune from the problem. In the election, border protection—combining the Tampa crisis with the ‘war against terrorism’—were central electoral issues. Analysis of the 2001 Australian Election Study shows that border protection cost Labor the election. Labor suffered defections to the Democrats and Greens over its position on refugees and asylum-seekers, and defections to the Coalition on terrorism. Negative public attitudes towards asylum-seekers rested on oppo sition to immigration, but also on a particular dislike of arrivals from the Middle East. By contrast, support for the ‘war on terrorism’ was based mainly on notions of fairness and democracy. Of the two border protection issues— asylum-seekers and terrorism—terrorism was the more important of the two in shaping the election outcome. If 11 September had occurred but the Tampa crisis had not, the Coalition would in all probability still have won the election.