Who votes alone? The impact of voting by mail on political discussion

Critics of voting by mail express concern over its impact on civil society. For example, Thompson (2004) posits that voting by mail limits electoral civic engagement by preventing the temporal norm of simultaneity on Election Day. I, however, find that the open ballot system of voting by mail promotes deliberation, which encourages civic engagement. This study tests if voting by mail increases political discussion by creating a Poisson regression model of American National Election Survey data. The findings show that voting by mail leads to more political discussion. This evidence supports the theory that voting by mail offers voters a more open and deliberatory system and does not necessarily limit civic engagement.     

Confidence in paper-based and electronic voting channels: evidence from Australia

Various electronic voting channels have been introduced across a range of countries. In some countries these new channels have proved uncontroversial, while in others, they remain contentious and have even been abandoned. Relatively little is known about whether and why voters have confidence in new and old voting channels. Australia provides a useful case for researching these issues, since it is a mature democracy in which election processes and outcomes are widely accepted. The 2013 Australian Election Study results show that in this context, voters have most confidence in paper-based voting and least in voting via smartphones. Positive political attachments, ease of voting and familiarity with technology are all associated with higher levels of confidence in voting channels.     

Policies and performance in the 2019 Australian federal election

ABSTRACT

The Liberal–National Coalition success in the 2019 Australian federal election surprised many observers, with the opinion polls consistently predicting a Labor victory. The election was notable for Labor’s proposals for wide-ranging tax changes, a historically unpopular Labor leader, and the fourth change of prime minister outside an election since 2010. Using the 2019 Australian Election Study, we test the influence of two models of voting, the first based on ideology together with an emphasis on policy, and the second on performance. The results show that performance was the dominant explanation for the result, with evaluations of party competence and leader popularity playing a major role in explaining voting behaviour in the election, both of which benefitted the Coalition.     

The Electoral Politics of Economic Reform in Australia: The 1998 Election

Like many other advanced industrial democracies, Australia has experienced major and ongoing economic reform over the last two decades, the pace of which has, if anything, increased since the election of the Liberal‐National government in 1996. These developments have led to a growing sense of economic insecurity among many voters. Many of these concerns were focused on the 1998 election, when the Liberal‐National Coalition advocated the introduction of a goods and services tax. This paper uses the 1998 Australian Election Study (AES) survey to examine the impact of economic evaluations, economic insecurity and economic issues on voting in the election. The results demonstrate the existence of widespread economic concerns across the electorate, but that the Coalition gained a marginal electoral advantage on the tax reform issue. Economic issues were also a cause of defection to the new One Nation Party, although further analysis reveals that its support was motivated more by race and ethnic concerns than by economic discontent.     

Some approaches to election night forecasting in Australia

We outline the history of election night forecasting in Australia. We first identify the major structural features of the Australian voting system which determine how the problem must be approached: single‐member constituencies; preferential voting; the counting on election night, in polling booths, of first preference votes only: and the existence of a two‐party system. We note that the major statistical difficulty associated with election night forecasting in Australia is that progressive counts in a seat, far from being random samples of the votes cast, are non‐random and systematically biased samples. We finally outline the increasingly sophisticated computer models which have been used to correct for this bias, culminating in the ‘matched polling places’ model implemented by the Australian Electoral Commission at the 1990 election, which has effectively eliminated the problem of bias.     

Protest or Error? Informal Voting and Compulsory Voting

Some opponents of compulsory voting claim that rising rates of informal voting point to growing antipathy towards the institution. In order to test this claim we examine recent trends in informal voting, focusing upon some recent figures, particularly those of the 2004 Federal election when there was a sharp rise in informal votes. We suggest that it is not compulsion that is leading to informal voting but rather complexity and its interactions with sociological factors that are brought into play by near-universal turnout.     

National Uniformity,and State and Local Effects on Australian Voting: A Multilevel Approach

The existence and extent of influences arising within spatial contexts is an important issue in the study of voting behaviour. This paper extends previous Australian research by using the relatively new technique of multilevel analysis to draw together individual survey data from the 1993 Australian Election Study and ecological census data to investigate the question. The results show that, once individual voter characteristics are taken into account, influences on first preference voting for the ALP at the 1993 election were quite uniform nationally, with relatively small spatial variations. Moreover, those spatial variations which were present were at the divisional, not the state, level and can be almost completely explained by a very small number of sociotropic factors, especially a local economic prosperity influence and the well-known rural-urban cleavage. As far as influences on voting at the 1993 election at the level of individual voters are concerned, these multilevel analyses provide some new insights, as well as confirming some previous results.     

Spatial Variations,Contextual and Social Structural Influences on Voting for the ALP at the 1996 Federal Election: Conclusions from Multilevel Analyses

Multilevel modelling of individual survey data from the 1996 Australian Election Study and aggregate contextual Census data is used to investigate the extent of spatial variations in voting at the 1996 election, and to examine potential explanations for the variations. The size of the variations was about the same as at the 1993 election, and was again mainly at the divisional rather than the state level. However, unlike in 1993, only a small amount of the variations could be explained by differences in the individual sociodemographic compositions of the areas, suggesting that local influences were more important in 1996 than 1993. The most significant change in the effect of the individual-level variables between the two elections was that the influence of being personally unemployed completely changed direction (working against the ALP in 1996, whereas it had favoured it in 1993), although the estimated strengths of several others also changed. I suggest that the concentration of the 1993 election on the 'Fightback' package might be the main cause of many of these differences. The nature of the main contextual influences is similar to those at the 1993 election, involving an urban-rural effect, a local economic effect and an ethnic effect, confirming that these are more than short-term factors. However, there also remain somewhat larger unexplained local influences than in 1993. Detailed investigation of the ethnic contextual effect suggests the presence of a specifically anti-Asian influence.     

Children and families: Relationships between family attitudes,household composition and voting in Australia

In the light of ongoing demographic trends (such as low fertility rates and growth of single-person households), some of the features of the 2004 Australian federal election outcomes and campaign raise the possibility that we might have seen the beginnings of a divide in voting behaviour based on family structure, particularly those aspects related to the presence of children. Relevant data from the 2004 Australian Election Study (AES) are quite limited, so I use data from both the 2004 AES and the 2003 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes to explore the relationships between federal voting and family structure, and attitudes towards children, parenting and families of different types. The results show effects on voting that apparently result from financial considerations related to the presence of children and others that are related to differences of values.     

Strategic voting and constituency context: Modelling party preference and vote in multiparty elections

We examine the role of strategic motivations in mediating the relationship between underlying political preferences and vote choice, in a multiparty, single member, simple plurality system, and examine the role of constituency context in determining the scope for strategic voting. Political preference data from the British Election Panel Survey, 1997–2001, were modelled with mixed multinomial logit models. Latent variables were used to model the stable party political traits underlying observed preferences, allowing correlation between choices and so avoiding the restrictive assumption of independence from irrelevant alternatives. Ranked approval ratings were used to characterize the underlying political preferences in the presence of insincere voting. From these models we estimate that approximately 9% of votes cast may have been affected by strategic factors. In keeping with ‘Duvergers law’, the smallest of the three main parties, the Liberal Democrats, were found to be most affected by strategic voting.     

The evaluation of electoral redistributions: the case of Western Australia*

Electoral boundaries may be delimited by electoral commissioners who are explicitly non-partisan but the consequences of their decisions are generally highly partisan. An evaluation of the State redistribution in Western Australia reveals that the Liberal Party was given a significant initial advantage for the 1983 State Election. Indicators used in the evaluation procedure include political party competition, shape, the integrity of political units, predictors of voting behaviour, as well as the re-aggregation of the 1983 election results by the pre-redistribution boundaries.     

The 1949 federal election: A reinterpretation

The 1949 federal election in Australia is widely regarded as one of Australia's most significant elections. This election ended eight years of ALP government and began a long period of unbroken rule by Liberal‐Country Party governments. Surprisingly, very little has been written about the 1949 election although various authors have addressed themselves to the question of why the Chifley government lost in December 1949. The orthodox interpretation is that Chifley's defeat in 1949 was to do with the issues of ‘bank nationalisation’ and ‘communism’. In this article, I offer a reinterpretation of the connection between political issues and voting behaviour in the 1949 election. Following the theory of Fiorina that voters tend to make their decision on the basis of how a party fares in handling problems in the past, I argue that the Australian electorate in 1949 responded negatively to Chifley's handling of the general economy and his policies on two crises in 1949 — the national coal strike and the dollar crisis.     

The challenges to democracy and citizenship surrounding the vote to Italians overseas

In 2003, a presidential decree enacted legislation guaranteeing Italian voters overseas the right to postal voting as well as parliamentary representation within their respective electoral constituency. The electoral weight of the overseas-based constituent had a remarkable effect on the 2006 election results. In the tightest vote in the Republic's history, the vote of overseas Italians, which was one of the decisive features of the election, helped provide the winning centre-left coalition with a slender majority in the Senate. Election results notwithstanding, the question of whether to grant the vote to Italians overseas has faced challenges of a procedural, normative and political nature. What may have been initially seen as a democratic right may well be cast aside as it poses challenges to overseas electoral relationships with the Italian national polity, Italian citizenship and multinational allegiances, diasporic identity, electoral participation and political representation in homeland political institutions. The overseas vote for Italians may be contested further in the near future, which could translate into a radical rethink of its validity and democratic global extension.     

Postmaterialist and Economic Voting in Australia, 1990-98

Recent research in Australian sociology and political science has debated the extent to which postmaterialist values and economic self-interest shape voting in federal elections. Some researchers have argued that postmaterialist values have partly displaced materialist concerns with physical security and economic well-being in Australian public life. This displacement, coupled with the adoption by major political parties of postmaterialist 'quality of life' issues such as the environment, has meant that voting in Australia has come to be more dependent on postmaterialist values than on perceptions of economic interest. Other research, however, has found no relationship between postmaterialist values and voting behaviour, while economic evaluations remain a strong determinant of voting behaviour. Part of the disagreement reflects methodological differences in the research. But different methodological problems compromise each of the previous studies. In this paper we use data from the 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998 Australian Election Studies to investigate postmaterialist and economic voting in the Commonwealth House of Representatives and the Senate. Using various statistical methods, we first explore bivariate relationships between key variables and then use multivariate models of postmaterialist and economic voting to adjudicate between the contending positions.     

Valence politics and immigrant voting in the 2013 Australian election

Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, this article investigates voting patterns among Australian voters from non-English-speaking backgrounds (NESB). It reveals that a valence politics model – comparing images of the two major parties and their leaders, partisan attachments, and judgements about party performance on economic issues – outperforms rival models. That is, it provides a powerful explanation of the decisions NESB voters made. In deciding between competing parties in the 2013 election, NESB voters resembled Australian voters who emigrated from English-speaking backgrounds and Australian-born voters. The findings of this article offer new insights into electoral research in Australia, indicating that previous studies have underestimated the important role of the valence politics model in explaining voting patterns among Australian voters. The article also provides plausible explanations for the convergence between various cohorts of voters in the 2013 election.     

Methodology, Statistics, and Voting Error: An Exploration of 2000 Presidential Election Data in Two States

In the wake of the voting controversy of Election 2000, along with passage of a congressional measure designed to fix what many believe is an ailing voting system, research into the impact of voting equipment on residual voting error has become a crucial question as the states prepare to replace existing voting equipment through the use of matching federal funds, to adjust existing equipment, or to face yet more lawsuits. Most existent studies into the link between voting equipment and residual voting error have concentrated on voting equipment across the states rather than within the individual states, generating results that are subject to a possible aggregation bias. Using a variety of statistical techniques, data on Election 2000 U.S. presidential and U.S. senatorial races are analyzed in an attempt to determine the impact of voting equipment on the voting error levels intrastate in those races. This study presents analysis of two sets of state data, Wyoming and Pennsylvania, and is used to argue that the infamous punch-card voting equipment may not be a significant contributor to an increase in voter error when analyzing intrastate, contrary to existing research that indicates it is significant when analyzed across multiple states. This research underscores the importance of researchers' ideological perspectives in application of statistical methodology to the American policy arena.     

The Impact of Proportional Representation on Turnout: Evidence from New Zealand

Theories of voter turnout assume that institutional arrangements can alter incentives for participation. Countries with proportional representation (PR) are assumed to increase the incentives to participate because they reduce the proportion of votes that are wasted, giving voters a stronger incentive to participate and parties a stronger incentive to mobilise voters. This paper departs from previous cross-national studies by employing individual-level data during a transition between electoral systems in one country. We used survey data collected before and after electoral reform in New Zealand to examine patterns of participation among political minorities. As a direct test of individual change, the analysis was supplemented with survey data from the last election held under first past the post (FPP) merged with validated participation data from the following election held under PR. We found that the adoption of PR in New Zealand has succeeded initially in fostering more positive attitudes about the efficacy of voting. In New Zealand's first election held under PR, voters who were on the extreme left were significantly more likely to participate than previously, leading to an overall increase in turnout.     

Do reluctant voters vote less accurately? The effect of compulsory voting on party–voter congruence in Australia and Belgium

We know compulsory voting is associated with higher levels of electoral turnout. It has been suggested that this leads to a trade-off with the quality of the vote, i.e. the ideological congruence between voters and the party they vote for. In this study, this claim is investigated using data from the 2007, 2010, and 2013 elections in Australia. We also include a comparison with two recent elections in Belgium, another country with compulsory voting. The results show that reluctant voters vote less ideologically congruent, but that this effect is mediated by political knowledge and political interest. However, this does not lead to less ideologically congruent election results at the aggregate level and compulsory voting does not have an impact on electoral results. We speculate that in future studies, it is important to make a distinction between reluctant voters, and those who take a strong hostile stand on the electoral process.     

Spatially Disaggregated Modelling of Voting Outcomes and Socio‐Economic Characteristics at the 2001 Australian Federal Election

This study uses GIS and spatial modelling to relate voting outcomes at the 2001 federal election for polling booths across Australia with the socio‐economic characteristics of polling booth catchment areas. The data and analysis used are more detailed and comprehensive than previous studies. It is conducted at a fine level of spatial disaggregation across the whole nation to examine voting outcomes for both major and minor political parties. Because the aim of the paper is to distinguish voting outcomes between political parties rather than to predict voting outcomes for particular political parties, a discriminant analysis is used rather than regression analysis. The statistical discriminant analysis identifies two main socio‐economic dimensions that are able to predict polling booth outcomes with a relatively high degree of accuracy. That analysis shows how, at the 2001 federal election, the middle ground, in terms of socio‐economic characteristics, was being claimed by the Liberal Party, Country Liberal Party, The Greens, and, to a lesser extent, by the Australian Labor Party. However, the Australian Democrats, National Party and One Nation had more distinctive constituencies, with the National Party and One Nation Party competing for areas with similar socio‐economic characteristics. Using GIS mapping tools, examples of actual and predicted polling booth voting outcomes are given, along with selected socio‐economic characteristics of booth catchments.     

Voting Technology,Political Institutions,Legal Institutions and Civil Society: A Study of the Hypothesis of Cultural Lag in Reverse

The 2000 Presidential election was plagued by butterfly ballots and ‘pregnant chads’. Electronic voting systems, lacking verifiable paper trails that are subject to possible fraud, promise to wreak havoc with the 2004 Presidential election. There is a great diversity of systems of voting technology in the 50 states: from paper ballots, lever‐operated machines and punch cards to optical scanners and electronic systems. Associated with each technology is an estimated error rate. The underlying theory of this paper was set forth by William F. Ogburn in his famous book entitled Social Change, published in 1922. Dividing culture into material and non‐material elements, Ogburn argued that non‐material elements lag behind material elements. His explanation for this lag is that technology, which underlies material culture, changes at a faster rate than elements of non‐material culture. Obgurn did not contemplate the possibility of a reverse lag, viz., technology lagging behind non‐material culture. In analyzing the anomalous relationships between voting technology, political institutions and legal institutions, a striking instance of a ‘reverse cultural lag’ is discerned. To eliminate the phenomenon of the reverse cultural lag, there is a need for a federally‐funded program of a uniform, state‐of‐the‐art voting technology, plus an amended Help America Vote Act, to implement the innovations in the 3,114 counties. The complex problems reviewed in this paper point to a vexing question: how do we educate an electorate in a democratic society—such as the United States in the twenty‐first century—to be responsible for ensuring that periodically‐elected representatives implement the will of the people?