县域城乡关联度评价指标体系构建与应用——以大西安为例

在总结城乡一体评价指标体系研究进展的基础上,从城乡一体化过程中城市和乡村这两个子系统出发,选取城市发展水平、乡村发展水平和城乡协调水平三个功能目标层构建县域城乡关联度评价指标体系。以大西安地区各区县为例进行应用研究发现,不同地区的城乡关联度、城市发展水平、乡村发展水平和城乡协调水平相互之间存在一致性和差异性,其中城市发展水平对城乡关联度影响最大。     

干旱区内陆河流域城乡聚落体系空间结构及影响模式研究——以石羊河流域为例

本研究以石羊河流域为研究区,选取2000、2006、2010年三期遥感影像为数据源,采用成本加权距离和城乡聚落体系潜能指数对传统的场强模型进行改进,综合利用扩张强度指数、扩张速度指数等分析研究石羊河流域内部城乡聚落体系空间结构分异。在此基础上,基于GIS技术并结合道路等级和长度计算流域内城乡聚落体系间最短时间距离来分析城乡聚落体系空间联系与空间相互作用,据此分析石羊河流域城乡聚落体系空间结构变化及影响模式。     

Urban-rural demographic contrasts in Highland Ecuador: town recession in a period of catastrophe 1778–1841

An investigation of three Andean towns in their regional setting forms the basis for an assessment of urban-rural demographic differences. The towns are found to have been ethnically distinct, with a larger proportion of whites than the mainly Indian rural areas. The urban populations also had a larger surplus of women, lower average marriage ages for women but lower proportions married, a higher illegitimacy rate and a slightly older age structure. Trends in urban districts differed from those in rural areas. The towns suffered major population losses, and their share of the regional population fell from nearly 10% in 1778 to around 5% in 1841. The factors affecting population trends are examined in order to identify those which had a differential urban-rural impact. Earthquake and warfare were of key significance. In a regional context of economic depression and population stagnation, these two catastrophes instigated a major urban recession. The three towns shared in the urban decline experienced in many parts of Latin America, but their recession was particularly pronounced owing to the impact of catastrophes.     

Elderly widowhood in China

As population ageing accelerates in China, the number of elderly widowed individuals are expected to increase. Using 2010 census data we estimate widowhood indices for rural and urban areas, and for men and women in China. The indices show that the probability of elderly widowhood to be higher for females (0.68) than males (0.32)—with no rural and urban difference. An average marriage in China lasts about 47 years. After the death of a spouse, the average duration of widowhood is about 11 years for males and about 15 years for females. Spousal age difference has a significant impact on widowhood indices. Rural populations have the shortest marriage duration and the youngest widowhood age, and longer widowhood duration.     

Enamel hypoplasia in Danish and Lithuanian Late Medieval/Early Modern samples: a possible reflection of child morbidity and mortality patterns

Numerous studies and various interpretations of the prevalence of linear enamel hypoplasias (LEH) based on populations living in different cultural and economic conditions are causing some confusion and raising doubts about whether or not such LEH are reliable indicators of life conditions. An analysis of LEH prevalence patterns was performed on the adults of three populations: Tirup—a Danish Medieval rural population of the 12–14th centuries (131 individuals), Subačiaus str. in Vilnius—a Lithuanian Late Medieval urban population of the 16–17th centuries (88 individuals), and the aristocracy—a Lithuanian pooled sample population from several churches of the 15–18th centuries (66 individuals). Statistical testing of the influence of population affinity, sex and age at death was also performed. Since the same investigator scored all the samples, possible inter‐observer error bias was minimized. In all the populations, LEH formation ages were similar. Statistically significant sex differences were found only in the aristocratic sample (with higher male frequency). It was found that the town population was characterized by the highest frequency of affected individuals, with the highest severity and highest number of stress episodes per individual. A reliable relationship with age at death was found only in the town sample: individuals with more numerous and more marked LEH had shorter life expectancies in adulthood. Different “most vulnerable years” for subsequent life expectancies were noted for different populations. A tentative explanation of these differences could be the pooled effect of differential morbidity and mortality. It seems that the rural population experienced the highest morbidity and nutrition deficiency as well as the highest child mortality whereas, in the urban sample, high morbidity was accompanied by a lower child mortality. Both lower morbidity and mortality seem to be characteristic for the aristocracy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends and Sub-National Disparities in Neonatal Mortality in India from 1981 to 2011

Despite progress made in recent decades, infant and neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) in India have remained high compared to neighbouring developing countries. This study aims at establishing quantitative links between the relatively slow progress in fight against neonatal death at national level and strikingly varying mortality patterns at sub-national level. It appears that the tempo and quantum of reductions in neonatal mortality have been inconsistent across time, states, and urban and rural sub-populations. Decompositions have shown that the total NMR decrease in India, since the early 1980s has been largely driven by mortality changes in poorer states and rural areas, whereas compositional changes had negligible impact. The disparity in NMRs across the sub-populations which had been declining earlier stabilised in the 2000s. These disparities produce a heavy burden of avoidable death. While the mortality excess in poorer states and rural areas constitutes the core of bulk of excess deaths, some richer states, and urban areas, also show unexpected slower mortality decreases. However, the experience of the two states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu highlights the potential for declines in NMRs in low-income settings with sensible health and social policies.     

论城乡关联发展与文化整合

本文对城市化的内涵进行了新的诠释,指出城市化应是城乡关联发展的过程,其实质是城乡文化的整合。在这个基础上,本文对城乡关联发展研究的理论动态作了详细的评析,并指出人们越来越重视城乡网络化关联发展研究。城乡关联发展是城市化不可回避的发展态势,这为城乡之间的文化整合创造了前提条件。城乡文化整合是城市化在城乡关联基础上的深化和拓展,体现了城市化过程中城乡居民共享文明的根本目标。本文还对城乡文化和城乡文化整合进行了分析。     

江苏省城乡公共服务发展差距及其障碍因素分析

以江苏省13个省辖市为研究样本,通过构建评价教育、卫生、环境和基础设施等公共服务指标体系,运用熵值法、协调度模型和障碍度模型等方法,对江苏各省辖市的城乡公共服务发展水平进行综合评价。结果表明:①城乡公共服务发展水平区域分异明显;②不同类型公共服务发展水平城乡差距各不相同,基础教育服务城乡差距明显,医疗卫生服务乡村远落后于城市,生态环境服务城乡差距相对较小,基础设施服务城乡差距位居中等;③城乡公共服务协调发展水平可以划分为四种类型,城乡基础教育和医疗卫生等服务领域发展水平差距是影响多数省辖市城乡公共服务协调发展的最大障碍因素。     

Modeling social interaction: Marital miscegenation in colonial Spanish America

Abstract

In this article, the author constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, he suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900–1902 rural and 1900–1902 overall death registration area life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex- and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.     

江苏省城乡公共服务区域差异的调查分析

根据江苏省样本地市的城乡公共服务水平及居民满意度调查数据,通过构建指标体系及权重,构造重要性与满意度矩阵等方法,本文从基础教育,医疗卫生,社会福利,文体服务、公共设施和生态环境及公共服务等方面对江苏省城乡公共服务水平的差异进行了分析。结果表明:江苏省城乡公共服务水平的区域差异明显,苏北地区的城乡差异较大,苏中和苏南地区较小;居民对城市公共服务满意度总体好于农村;城市与农村各类公共服务水平差距显著,尤其表现在文体服务与公共服务设施上;多数地市城乡公共服务水平协调度偏低。针对分析结果,本文提出了促进江苏省城乡公共服务协调发展的政策建议。     

山西省城乡协调度演变及其机制分析

通过建立城乡协调度评价模型对山西城乡协调度进行研究,发现:(1)1980-2006年城乡静态协调度是呈倒"U"型,1980-1985年属于严重不协调型,1995-2002年属于初级和基本协调型,2003-2006年属于严重不协调型;(2)城乡动态协调度在1980-85年属于下降型,1985-1995年属于增加型,1995年后属于下降型。分析认为城市化水平低、产业重型化、农民收入增收困难、对乡村和农户固定资产投资比例降低阻碍了城乡协调发展。本文提出了加强城市群建设、促进产业结构高级化、加强对农民技能的培训和增加对农村固定资产投资四条发展对策。     

Opportunities and competition in thick labor markets: Evidence from plant closures

Since Marshall (1890), it has been widely held in urban economic theory that cities insure workers against the risk of unemployment by offering a larger pool of potential jobs. Using a large administrative panel data set on workers displaced as a result of plant closures, we examine whether positive effects from a higher urban job density are offset by more intense competition between workers. When controlling for the sorting of workers between regions, we find robust evidence that the effect of job competition on unemployment duration exceeds that of job opportunities in absolute value. Our results put the idea of urban risk-sharing into perspective and provide an explanation for observed longer unemployment durations in cities.     

城乡耦合地域系统相互作用模型建构及应用——以南京为例

在总结国内外城乡双系统相互作用动力机制研究的基础上,本文依据现代系统科学理论引入城乡过渡地区即城乡耦合地域系统非线性动态模型,提取耦合度指标以反映整个系统演化状态以及系统内城市主关联系统与乡村主关联系统在耦合界面上相互作用的协调程度。以南京为例,运用主成分分析法从28项指标中提取经济发展水平、社会协调程度、资源设施配给率、环境负反馈机制等四项主因子对其进行耦合度实证辨析,以此了解南京城乡耦合地域系统演化规律性,为进一步深化科学规划和管理该地域的理论实践提供了借鉴。     

比较视野下中国乡村认知的再辨析:当代价值与乡村复兴

本文首先探讨了西方社会对乡村认知转型的基本思潮,其演进脉络经历了生产主义、后生产主义和多功能乡村三个阶段。在此基础上,本文尝试建立了从主体和功能两个维度进行乡村认知的基本框架,并从历史视角对中国乡村的认知变迁进行了回溯。新中国成立以来,对于乡村的认知大致经历了牺牲型乡村和追赶型乡村两个阶段,直至城乡统筹的概念提出,才有一定的改变。本文提出了当前中国乡村的三重价值——乡村的农业价值、乡村的腹地价值和乡村的家园价值。基于这样的多元价值,尝试性地提出了"乡村复兴"的概念框架。     

城乡融合发展视野下山西乡村振兴路径探索

城乡融合发展是实现乡村振兴的基本方向。在当前推动乡村振兴发展实现农业农村现代化的重要时期,深入探究城乡融合发展与乡村振兴二者之间的关系,有助于更准确地探索乡村振兴路径。本文基于人地关系地域系统理论、人与自然之间物质变换思想以及城乡融合发展思想,结合山西乡村振兴实践面临的困境,对乡村振兴微观路径进行探索。研究结果表明:城乡融合发展是城乡地域系统人地关系协调可持续的重要驱动因素。从人才、文化、组织、产业、生态等方面探索制度和各类要素的城乡融合发展具体路径,调整乡域系统人地关系以适应经济社会发展进程,可以为当前乡村振兴战略实施提供理论参考。     

制度因素在我国城乡一体化发展过程中的作用分析

文章通过剖析改革开放前后城乡关系的巨大变化,认识到目前城乡不协调的根源在于制度因素,进而分析了城乡一体化与政策制度的关系,探讨了制度因素对城乡一体化的作用机制;之后分析了现有部分政策制度缺陷及对城乡一体化发展的阻碍作用,提出促进城乡一体化发展的相关政策制度的改革创新思路,以期对我国的城乡一体化发展有所裨益。     

城乡空间互动-整合演进中的新型农村社区规划体系设计

本文以城乡空间互动-整合演进的理念为依托,横向思考城市与乡村在社会经济发展、居民理想生活诉求层面的异同,着力探讨新型农村社区规划原理及规划体系的核心内容,指出经济空间互动、生活空间延展、社会文化空间更新、城乡交通空间链接及田园生态景观空间表征是城乡空间互动-整合演进不同阶段新型农村社区规划的基本原理,故农业生产空间规划、农村社区居住空间规划、农村社区公共空间规划、农村社区交通空间规划、农田与绿地空间规划构成了新型农村社区规划体系。新型农村社区规划体系的确立必将对城乡空间的合理规划与管理提供有益的参考。     

河南省城乡统筹发展的时空特征与定位推进

运用时序主成分分析法,分析了河南省1995-2009年城乡统筹发展动态演变规律,并结合聚类分析结果对2009年河南省18个省辖(管)市进行区域差异分析。研究表明:河南省城乡统筹发展大致分两个阶段,稳步上升阶段和波动上升阶段;2009年河南省城乡统筹发展的空间差异类型可分为高、较高、较低、低四种区域类型。根据时序特征和空间差异特征的定量评价结果,对河南省城乡统筹进行时空定位,并提出深化城乡制度改革、探索城乡协调机制、实行产业集聚发展、建立统一保障体系、营建现代化都市区、推进城乡一体化试点建设进程等推进策略。     

Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe

Events such as Brexit and the Gilet Jaunes protests have highlighted the spatial nature of populism. In particular, there has been increasing political divergence between urban and rural areas, with rural areas apparently having lost faith in national governments. We investigate this divergence using data on over 125,000 EU citizens from the European Social Survey from 2008 to 2018. We show that people in rural areas have lower political trust than urban or peri-urban residents, with this difference clear for six different forms of political institutions, including politicians, political parties, and national parliaments. There has been divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe since 2008, although this is primarily driven by Southern Europe. While these results can partly be explained by demographic differences between cities and the countryside, divergent economic experiences, differences in values, and perceptions that public services are less effective outside of urban areas, there is a residual ‘rural effect’ beyond this. We argue that the polarisation of urban-rural political trust has important implications for the functioning of European democracies.     

我国城乡关系的定量研究——基于城乡投入产出表的视角

城乡关系是地理学研究的重要议题。本文运用城乡投入产出模型,构建了"乡村支持城镇、城镇反哺乡村"的定量模型,分析了我国1987-2012年间城乡间的经济联系。结果发现,从经济联系角度看,虽然城镇对乡村的反哺作用有了较大的提升,但总体上我国城乡关系仍处于乡村支持城镇阶段。乡村对其他服务业（如教育、医疗）的消费是导致乡村支持城镇的主要来源,且其作用有增大趋势。而城镇对农业的消费、对建筑业的投资以及纺织服装业的出口是城镇反哺乡村最主要的经济活动。因此,减轻乡村居民在其他服务业领域的支出负担,刺激城镇居民对乡村农产品的消费,保持建筑业投资力度,扩大纺织服装行业的出口水平有利于提升我国城镇反哺乡村的水平。