基于方式—目的理论的民族旅游者目的地选择研究——以临夏回族旅游者为例

作为旅游者决策行为研究的重要组成部分,旅游者目的地选择研究对于旅游目的地营销有着十分重要的作用。本文采用方式—目的理论,以临夏回族旅游者作为调查对象,探讨了民族旅游者旅游目的地选择的过程与影响因素。研究表明,回族旅游者首先考虑的因素是旅游目的地文化因素,即清真食品和回族氛围等因素。其次是旅游目的地的景观因素。在最终的旅游目的地选择时,距离因素起到了十分重要的作用。同时,研究表明回族旅游者对于旅游目的地的选择上具有自身独特的特点。最后提出了研究结论对于旅游业营销、市场定位和产品开发的意义。     

旅游者目的地选择的TPB模型与分析

本文借鉴消费者计划行为理论——Theory of Planned Behavior（TPB）,构建了一个旅游目的地选择的TPB模型,并对各层次构成要素的作用进行分析,试图通过模型研究揭示旅游者目的地选择的心理及行为特征。本文认为,意向、情境、旅游群体是旅游者目的地选择的基本影响要素,而态度、主观规则和主观感知对意向产生重要影响;目的地形象、旅游经历、动机等9个因素是最直接的影响要素。     

城市旅游地生命周期的系统动态模型

对城市旅游和旅游地生命周期的概念进行了分析和界定,在评述国内外相关研究成果的基础上,提出了一般城市旅游地生命周期的研究框架,并论述了系统动力学方法对于旅游地生命周期研究的适用性和有效性,构建了一般城市旅游地旅游发展的系统动态模型,解释了旅游地发展的系统内部结构和各要素的作用机制。     

Joint Effects of Personal Factors and Ecological Variables on the Interprovincial Migration Pattern of Young Adults in Canada: A Nested Logit Analysis

This paper applies a nested logit model to the 1981 census micro data to study the joint effects of personal factors (sex, mother tongue, nativity, education, and marital status) and ecological variables on the 1976–1981 interprovincial migration pattern of young adults in Canada. In multivariate contexts, personal factors not only are of paramount importance in explaining the departure process but also have significant interactions with ecological variables in determining the destination choice pattern.     

国外旅游线路空间模式研究进展

旅游线路空间模式实质上是游客在目的地区域对停留空间和消费空间的理性选择与线性组合,是具有典型空间属性的社会文化地理现象和经济地理现象,涉及了作为旅游景点和旅游目的地的点状地理要素和作为旅游线路的线状地理要素以及旅游目的地体系构成的区域等面状地理要素。从文献综述的角度对不同尺度旅游线路模式的空间模型、目的地类型、游客旅行行为特征、模式选择影响因素以及理论基础进行了总结,在此基础上结合国内研究对旅游线路模式今后的研究方向提出了建议。     

A Selection Bias Approach to Destination Choice

Research on consumer search behavior commonly envisages destination choice as a two-step process: (1) delineate the search set, and (2) evaluate choices therein. However, much of the empirical work in destination choice—including logit and nested logit formulations—models only the latter, and not the set delineation itself. In the presence of correlation between error terms in set delineation and choice selection, statistical estimators are biased, a problem that Heckman and others have called selection bias. In this paper, an alternative two-stage method is proposed to estimate the parameters of models of set delineation and choice selection. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the properties of these two-stage estimators, and to show the magnitude of bias inherent in traditional methods of estimation.     

旅游目的地选择行为的收入群体差异——以北京、武汉、西安城镇居民为例

以北京、武汉、西安城镇居民为例,探究旅游目的地选择行为的收入群体差异。研究发现,不同收入群体的旅游目的地选择行为存在明显差异,具体表现在：①不同收入群体的景区到访率均随距离的增加呈e指数衰减,但衰减速率存在收入群体差异,收入越高的群体,到访率距离衰减速率相对越小。②中国城镇居民的国内旅游目的地选择行为具有“距离择近,景点择高,经济择富”的“三择”倾向,但不同收入群体的“三择”程度不同,收入越低的群体,“距离择近,经济择富”的倾向越明显。③不同收入群体到访率空间分异趋势一致,但高到访率空间大小不同,收入越高的群体,高到访率空间越大。④目的地亲景度存在收入群体差异,收入越高的群体,目的地亲景度越高。     

The role of aviation networks for urban development

City officials are continuously working to attract airlines willing to fly to new destinations. The inherent expectation is that a more extensive aviation network stimulates economic growth. This paper investigates empirically the causal implication of this hypothesis. Using data on nonstop flights by origin and destination over the period 1984–2013, we propose a new measure for a metropolitan area's connectivity to the national aviation network. We then use this measure to investigate its contribution to local economic development, as captured by the growth in population, in total employment, in per-capita income, and new firm entry. To ensure causality, we use instrumental variable methods that exploit geography and destination airports growth as a way to capture the exogenous variation in the likelihood to add new travel routes. Our results suggest that a metropolitan area's air connectivity, resulting from an expansive local aviation network, has a positive effect on population, on employment and on the number of businesses established in that location.     

近期内未出游城镇居民的旅游障碍与目的地选择偏好研究

通过与近3年内有过国内旅游经验的城镇居民进行对比分析,本文对近3年内未出游城镇居民的旅游障碍和目的地选择偏好进行了研究。文章以城镇居民为调查对象,采用问卷调查、统计分析的方法进行实证研究,在全国15个城市发放2500份问卷,共收回有效问卷2296份,其中近期内未出游城镇居民问卷639份,然后以近期内出游者样本作为对照组,利用对比分析和非参数Ridit分析等方法分析近期内未出游者,并得出如下主要结论：（1）时间因素、经济因素、心理因素和旅游意识因素构成近期内未出游者的主要旅游障碍;（2）相比近期内出游者,近期内未出游者的经济因素、身体因素和旅游意识因素的障碍性更强;（3）近期内未出游者的目的地选择因素按偏好程度可以划分为6个层次,其中旅游安全和目的地环境是最重要的因素,但相比于近期内出游者,旅游的总费用和目的地环境条件（包括餐饮、交通等）对该群体影响更大,而核心吸引物的优劣影响则较小。在此基础上,本文还针对性地提出了市场拓展策略。     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。     

季节性退休移民的日常行为与身心健康关系——候鸟老人的绿色空间暴露分析

在中国人口老龄化背景下,退休老年群体出于追求身心健康的动机向环境更好的地方季节性流动的现象越来越普遍,这类季节性退休移民被称之为"候鸟老人".本文运用时空行为的环境暴露测量,采用混合研究方法探讨候鸟老人日常行为中对迁入地绿色空间的实际使用与身心健康的关系.研究发现:候鸟老人在迁入地的日常活动范围主要集中在以家为中心的1...     

THE JOINT CHOICE OF AN INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION AND DESTINATION*

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between an individual's occupation choice and destination choice. It portrays the relationship as an interaction between the supply of occupational skills by individuals and demand by different labor‐market regions. The unusual merger of a multinomial logit model of occupational choice and the conditional logit model of destination choice in a simultaneous equation framework requires derivation of a unique variance–covariance matrix. Results indicate strong association between supply of (migration) and demand for (industry mix) an individual's occupational skills. These effects are especially strong for destinations experiencing slow economic growth, while relatively unimportant for high‐growth locations.     

景区形象与游客感知价值、满意和忠诚的关系的实证研究

游客忠诚是景区赢得竞争优势的重要保证。景区形象对旅游者出游前的目的地选择、游中的体验评价和游后行为倾向都有影响。本文在问卷调查的基础上,利用结构方程模型对景区形象与游客感知价值、满意和游客忠诚的关系展开实证研究。研究发现,景区形象对游客感知价值、满意和游客忠诚有着显著的正向影响,感知价值正向影响满意,但是对游客忠诚正向影响不显著,满意正向影响游客忠诚。利用因子分析揭示出景区形象存在功能形象、可达形象和情感形象三个维度。引入时间维度将景区游客忠诚重新界定为近期忠诚、中期忠诚、远期忠诚和态度忠诚四个维度。利用回归分析,发现景区形象各维度与游客忠诚各维度之间存在一定的因果关系。     

信息过载情境下旅游者目的地选择决策研究——热门形象与长尾形象的差异化作用分析

借助网络,旅游者能够获得丰富的目的地属性信息,形成的引致形象更为丰满。本文采用情境实验法,检验了信息过载情境下引致形象发生的结构性变化对旅游者目的地选择决策的影响。研究发现：①属性信息过载主要表现为旅游者对目的地长尾形象信息的选择性记忆,而目的地热门形象仍能被普遍记住;②在旅游者目的地选择决策过程中,目的地的热门形象依旧起着决定性作用,即USP依然是有效的营销策略;③在网络信息环境中新生成的引致形象长尾部分对旅游者决策的影响受到引致形象热门部分的调节,即引致形象长尾只有在特定的条件下才对旅游者决策有所影响。该研究结论有助于深化旅游者目的地选择决策理论、指导DMO目的地营销工作的开展。     

ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,KNOWLEDGE FLOWS,AND INNOVATION IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS

High growth and progressive regions possess a culture that promotes innovation. Innovation depends on a region's ability to use its own existing knowledge and knowledge generated elsewhere. This paper demonstrates the importance of the ability to absorb external knowledge in explaining innovation productivity for 106 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using a spatial interaction model of patent citation flows with origin and destination dependence, the destination fixed‐effects coefficients provides a measure of a region's absorptive capacity. We identify local conditions that shape a region's absorptive capacity and demonstrate it has a positive and significant impact on innovation productivity.     

Environmental Externalities,Median Voters,and the Multicentric City*

Abstract. This paper presents a new theory of the formation of a multicentric city and shows an example where median voters prevail in the social choice of land use patterns. To be specific, environmental externalities of work zones give an incentive to voters to form multiple subcenters in a city even in the absence of agglomeration economies. In addition, the land use pattern chosen closely follows the median voter's preferences under appropriately structured choice process. In this demonstration, zoning is as much the mechanism by which the internal structure of a city is organized as it is the one used to organize the metropolitan fabric of local governments in the Tiebout‐Oates‐Hamilton system.     

The Location Choice of Employment‐based Immigrants among U.S. Metro Areas*

Abstract. This paper examines the initial location choice of legal employment‐based immigrants to the United States using Immigration and Naturalization Service data on individual immigrants, as well as economic, demographic, and social data to characterize the 298 metropolitan areas we define as the universal choice set. Focusing on interactions between place characteristics and immigrant characteristics, we provide multinomial logit model estimates for the location choices of about 38,000 employment‐based immigrants to the United States in 1995, focusing on the top 10 source countries. We find that, as groups, immigrants from nearly all countries are attracted to large cities with superior climates, and to cities with relatively well‐educated adults and high wages. We also find evidence that employment‐based immigrants tend to choose cities where there are relatively few immigrants of nationalities other than their own. However, when we introduce interaction terms to account for the sociodemographic characteristics of the individual immigrants, we find that the estimated effects of location destination factors can reverse as one takes account of the age, gender, marital status, and previous occupation of the immigrants.     

大城市居民对城郊乡村旅游地的感知研究——以南京市为例

本文依据第一手调查数据资料,运用基于现代统计软件SPSS的统计分析法,以南京市为例,研究了大城市居民对城郊乡村旅游地的感知情况,并进一步探讨了感知在人口学特征方面的差异性、总体印象与各要素评价之间的相关关系,在此基础上,对总体印象进行了回归分析,以探寻它与各要素评价之间的具体关系。结果表明,有关城郊乡村旅游地的感知与评价水平不高,在人口学特征方面的差异性不尽相同,总体印象与各具体要素评价之间存在着显著的正相关关系,其中,乡村风光、餐饮、旅游服务和住宿四个方面的感知评价对总体印象影响较大。     

北美大都市区规划及其对珠江三角洲的启示

本文简要回顾了北美大都市区及大都市区规划的发展历程,重点讨论了当今大都市区规划的影响因素和力求解决的热点问题,并比较了未来大都市区规划的两种主要模式,最后提出了对于珠江三角洲大都市区规划的几点启示。     

基于居民出行大数据的我国都市圈识别及其分布格局

都市圈是大城市发展到一定阶段的产物,当前都市圈空间范围界定还存在争议,本文梳理了都市圈的概念和内涵,采用手机信令出行数据识别了全国都市圈的空间分布格局。分析发现,我国大部分都市圈仍处于发育阶段,当出行率阈值为 1% 时全国识别出 27个都市圈。都市圈的分布格局与经济发展水平密切相关,经济发达地区的都市圈数量多、分布密集,如东部沿海和城市群地区。中心城市的人口和经济规模,以及圈域出行距离影响了都市圈的空间范围和圈内联系程度,圈域出行规模与中心城市人口规模呈正相关,外围城市向中心城市的出行率与中心城市经济首位度呈正相关,且符合距离衰减规律。