Peculiar chauvinism or strategic calculation? Explaining the negotiating strategy of a rising India

India is finally on the rise. It is increasingly recognized as an 'emerging power' and a 'pivotal state', and receives invitations to the major fora for international negotiations (such as the G8, or small group consultations within the WTO) that are commensurate with this recognition. Interesting, however, belying all predictions and often at considerable cost to itself, even the rising India continues to adhere to features of its old, Third Worldist, defensive style of diplomacy. This article examines the reasons why Indian negotiators show such willingness to 'Just Say No' across international negotiations. It focuses on India's negotiation strategies in the regimes of trade and nuclear non-proliferation. The article argues that the sources of India's nay-saying have deeper roots than accounts of bureaucratic politics and domestic interest groups would suggest. It also analyzes some recent changes in India's negotiating positions, and argues that it is still too early to speculate on how meaningful or longlasting these changes might be. Finally, the article identifies the conditions under which India's negotiating strategies might change from its traditional nay-saying to a more proactive and easier engagement with the developed world.     

Principled pragmatism in climate policy? The EU and changing practices of climate justice

Climate change constitutes one of the most pressing political problems of our time and has profound implications for global justice. However, despite the recent progress of the international negotiations embodied in the Paris Agreement, most scientists and activists agree that the adopted measures are not adequate or ‘just’ considering the magnitude of the problem. Thus, there is a pressing need for political forerunners that could push the regime towards a more just handling of the problem. The European Union for most of the time has presented itself as a strong advocate for progressive climate action and has been called a climate vanguard or ‘green normative power’. This paper critically assesses the EU's role concerning climate change from a perspective of global political justice, which builds on a tripartite theoretical conception, consisting of ‘non-domination’, ‘impartiality’ and ‘mutual recognition’. It inquires to which conceptions of justice the EU's climate strategy and approach to the international negotiations have corresponded, how and why changes have come about, and whether the EU was able to influence the international regime. The paper finds that while the EU started out from a focus on political measures linked to impartiality, after the failed negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009 it has become more open towards policies and instruments in line with mutual recognition and non-domination. Thus, the emphasis moved away from top-down, legally binding measures, towards voluntary bottom-up procedures, a recognition of difference and diplomatic outreach activities. While this shift was necessary to reinstate the EU's influence and secure the Paris Agreement, it could hamper the quest for robust climate abatement measures and global climate justice.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of linkage strategies in Arab-Israeli water negotiations

Water issues are inherently multi-faceted and therefore water policy often involves linkages to other issues. By providing opportunities for bargaining, use of policy linkages in transboundary water negotiations can increase the possibilities of reaching agreements; however, they also involve potential political costs. While there is ample theoretical literature on the potential benefits and risks of linkages in transboundary water negotiations, there is little empirical work exploring if, how, and why linkages are implemented in practice, especially in areas of conflict, in which they have perhaps the largest potential impact. This study evaluates the rationales behind decisions to adopt or refrain from linkage strategies by examining their actual use in Arab-Israeli water negotiations. The study finds that the likelihood, scale, and scope of linkages change over time, and they depend on factors such as the political climate, the level of trust between the parties, the degree of power asymmetry between parties, and political affiliation. Other variables such as size of negotiating parties were weakly correlated with likelihood of linkages. Knowing the opportunities and limits afforded by such linkages is crucial for negotiators and policymakers who are often drawn to linkage strategies without considering their inherent risks.     

COP‐6 Collapse or ‘to be Continued?’

In November 2000 the Sixth Conference of Parties in The Hague was suspended without reaching agreement. Before the start of the meeting, Executive Secretary Michael Zammit Cutajar described the conference as 'a make or break opportunity for the climate change treaties'. However, the collapse of this meeting does not mean a total breakdown of the climate negotiations. Only 10 days after the collapse, leading developed country negotiators gathered again to revive the talks. Four articles in the April 2001 issue of International Affairs will analyse in much more detail the meeting in The Hague, the revived negotiations and the implications for further climate policy. Four distinguished authors will shed light on the climate change issue from four different perspectives: Europe, the United States, developing countries and the non-governmental organizations.     

Indian Water Settlements: The Prerequisites of Successful Negotiation

Beginning in the late 1970s, the federal government adopted a policy of negotiating, rather than litigating, conflicts over Indian water claims. In the ensuing years numerous settlements have been authorized by Congress. According to the literature on dispute resolution, successful negotiations are usually characterized by a specific set of conditions. This paper assesses the extent to which Indian water settlements are characterized by these conditions.     

Introduction and Overview

The international negotiations on climate change in November 2000 in The Hague collapsed amid broad media coverage. Getting the talks rapidly back on track failed and they will now resume in Bonn in July 2001. In the meantime, however, the political landscape has changed: there is a new US administration, and new scientific conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been released. The introduction and overview to this issue of International Affairs introduces five articles, all of which agree that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change can be saved. The rescue can be made either through fundamental changes to the Protocol itself or by learning the lessons of the failed round of negotiations in The Hague. On the basis of an assessment of the five articles, the author proposes his own solution-to un-bundle the issues that had accumulated in the three years since Kyoto. The author believes that some of the key developing-country Articles, dealing with issues such as adaptation, capacity-building, and financial and technology transfer, can be dealt with outside the pressure of the targets and timetables. Decisions on Kyoto's emission targets, mechanisms and some aspects of 'sinks' would be made easier without the 'inter- connectedness' with the 'developing-country issues'. It might even be possible, he suggests, to negotiate some deals on targets within smaller groups of countries such as the EU, or those countries that have targets, the Annex B countries.     

Flogging a Dead Horse? Neo-Marxism and Indigenous Mining Negotiations

Historically, Indigenous Australians have been marginalised, both economically and politically, in mineral development processes in Australia. The Australian state structures the interaction between Indigenous people and mining companies through general legislation and policies, and is therefore a key determinant of the mineral negotiating environment. This paper examines the state's role in the negotiations for the Century Mine in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and argues that recent neo-Marxist theories offer the most cogent theoretical explanation of the state's behaviour. It contends that, despite a noted tendency to consign Marxist theorising to the history books, analysis of the behaviour of the state in the Century negotiations provides critical evidence of the continued relevance of neo-Marxist theories of the state.     

USES OF GAME THEORY TO EXPLAIN THE SALT PROCESS

Negotiations in international relations must be analyzed not only in terms of the substance of policy which is of relevance to the negotiating process, but also with regard to the negotiating process itself. This paper focuses on the negotiating process leading up to the SALT I agreements of 1972. Through the insights of game theory we can better understand the difficulties inherent in reaching accords in nuclear arms negotiations.     

Australia's flawed approach to trade negotiations: and where do we sign?

Economists have warned for many years that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) will not necessarily increase economic welfare in Australia given the relatively small size of the economy and the country’s lack of negotiating coin. The Productivity Commission cautioned in its major report on PTAs that there seemed to be a mindset of ‘agreements for agreement’s sake’, in part because of fears of missing out on a bandwagon that has attracted Australia’s major trading partners. Political and security considerations have played an important role in shaping Australia’s approach to PTAs. When politics trumps economics in negotiations of PTAs there is a risk of a rush to premature agreement that produces sub-optimal outcomes, that undermines broader plurilateral and global negotiations, and that introduces new and undesirable distortions in trade and public policies. Various theoretical approaches to trade policymaking provide insights into why Australian governments have been willing to conclude these sub-optimal deals.     

Historical Climatology and coastal change associated with the ‘Great Storm’ of January 2005, South Uist and Benbecula,Scottish Outer Hebrides

Abstract

This paper describes some of the changes that affected the coastlines of South Uist and Benbecula following the ‘Great Storm’ of 11 January 2005. The paper considers historical changes in patterns of winter storminess and addresses the issue of whether or not there has been a recent increase in regional storminess, manifested partly by this particular storm. The paper concludes on the basis of available Greenland ice core chemistry data and historical climate data, together with recent meteorological data, that no such increase has taken place. This surprising conclusion is further discussed in relation to current thinking on the nature of recent climate change.     

Living with anthropogenic climate change: Learning from environmental history to question narratives of doom,hope, and crisis

We are living with anthropogenic climate change and must address the causes and reduce the negative impacts on our planet, humans, and other species. This commentary offers a brief review of environmental history from deep time to recent waves of environmentalism demonstrating that climate change has occurred before; that people have faced perceived end times; and that predictions of doom have helped us to act to avoid that potential scenario. These are important lessons for how we may live today and into the future, given the shift from climate change denial to narratives of impending doom because we have already failed to act. The commentary presents a matrix of positions adopted in relation to climate change and environmentalism more generally, highlighting narratives of hope, doom, and urgency. While not exhaustive, these summarised positions alert us to possibilities and are intended to generate wider discussion about how we may live with anthropogenic climate change. We have to learn to live with anthropogenic climate change while addressing the causes and reducing the negative impacts on our planet, humans and on other species.     

Planning for Climate Change Adaptation in a Multi-level Context: The Gothenburg Metropolitan Area

Individual local governments are key players in Sweden's strategy for climate adaptation but their authority does not match the scale of climate change and its impacts. Competences are divided among local, regional and national authorities. Climate adaptation thus requires cooperation, particularly in metropolitan regions. This raises issues of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of adaptation measures recommended in local Master Plans. The focus here is on how the 13 municipalities in the Gothenburg Metropolitan Area—expected to be the part of Sweden most affected by impacts of climate change—address and act upon issues of climate change adaptation within the framework of Sweden's Planning and Building Act, which places responsibility for the “common interest” of climate adaptation with local governments. Analysing municipal Master Plans, as well as the comments on these plans from the regional County Administrative Board and from Göteborg Region Association of Local Authorities, the inter-municipal association charged with infrastructural planning, I identify patterns in terms of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of planning for climate change adaptation. Results are discussed in relation to propositions from recent research on planning for climate adaptation in multi-level contexts.     

Getting Climate Policy on Track after The Hague

In November 2000, the Sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-6) ended in disarray and recrimination. The objective of the meeting was to agree on the details of the definitions and rules underlying the Kyoto Protocol negotiated in 1997. Unfortunately, the issues at stake were not small ones but points of principle and substance on which agreement had previously proved impossible, not only in Kyoto but in the negotiating sessions that followed. COP-6 is to be reconvened in July 2001 in the hope of resolving the differences, but the outlook is not favourable because positions appear to remain far apart. As a result, it is not clear what directions the international negotiations might take next. This article explores various paths, and draws the conclusion that several years may be required before a necessary revision of the Kyoto rules and targets can be undertaken. In the interim, progress on climate issues should not stop, and the authors suggest a set of efforts to be pursued, even while the search for a common global response continues. These efforts include pursuing domestic action to reduce emissions, maintaining activities already begun under the Framework Convention, and, in as much as possible, seeking agreement on consistent accounting rules.     

An exploration of regional climate change scenarios for Scotland

Based on a high resolution regional climate model (RCM) experiment, a climate change scenario for Scotland for the end of this century is constructed with the aim of exploring the added value of utilising a regional rather than a global model (GCM) for climate change scenario construction. Spatial variations in regional seasonal average temperature and precipitation change are analysed and the local response of ‘extreme’ weather events to climate warming is assessed using daily model output. The analyses suggest that in comparison with the GCM, the RCM does not provide fundamentally different patterns of seasonal climate change and daily weather response over Scotland, although it does capture more subtle spatial variations in these changes. The RCM also simulates more realistic daily weather events than the GCM, although the relative changes in the frequencies of daily extremes are not greatly different. However, with the limited length of the single model simulation analysed here, it is not easy to establish how robust and significant are the sub‐national patterns of climate response across Scotland. To improve the quality and comprehensiveness of regional climate change scenario information, a number of research issues remain to be addressed.     

Global Change and Southern Africa

The developing nations of southern Africa have previously been identified as vulnerable to the vagaries of global change, particularly in terms of future climate change. This paper explores recent climate change scenarios for the region in terms of some representative sectors of the environment‐society interface, namely biodiversity, agriculture and related land uses, water resources and health issues. It is concluded that the impacts of predicted climate changes over the next century are likely to be very marked indeed. Biome distribution, agriculture, rangelands and water resources are highlighted as being negatively impacted in ways that will increase the vulnerability of the great majority of the region's population to natural hazards. The potential impact of these changes on the prolific biodiversity of southern Africa is clear. Holistic policy responses, incorporating both environmental and human development concerns, are required in the near future if a crisis is to be averted.     

Overcoming legacies of foreign policy (dis)interests in the negotiation of the European Union–Australia free trade agreement*

ABSTRACT

Despite a troubled trade history dominated by disputes over agriculture, the negotiation of a European Union (EU)–Australia free trade agreement (FTA) was initiated in 2015. The initiation of these negotiations was made possible because of the shift in EU trade policy towards the negotiation of what the EU terms ‘new generation free trade agreements’. The EU has concluded FTA negotiations with South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam and Canada, and is negotiating other FTAs— notably with Japan and the USA . The EU faces many commercial challenges to its FTA negotiations that go beyond tariff reduction, including the protection of its geographical indicators, public procurement and investor–state dispute settlement. These issues are likely to be substantial features of any EU FTA with Australia. In addition to these challenges, the promotion of sustainable development interests and human rights through FTA negotiations is an important component of the EU’s approach. The EU’s position on the trade-related aspects of sustainable development and the negotiation of human rights conditionality has presented significant challenges to the EU’s trade agenda, particularly in negotiations with Canada and Singapore. This article draws lessons from the EU’s new generation trade agreement negotiations to date. It compares these negotiations with Australia’s approach to FTA negotiations, and analyses potential stumbling blocks for an EU–Australia FTA in light of past tensions in the relationship. The article argues that shifts in both EU and Australian trade policies and positive developments in the relationship mitigate past obstacles to a negotiated agreement. However, EU– Australia relations still suffer from the tyranny of distance. The resulting deficit in foreign policy salience between the EU and Australia broadens the best alternatives to a negotiated agreement.     

Policy Subsystems and Regimes: Organized Interests and Climate Change Policy

This research is an examination of the role of organized interests in international climate change policy formation. Systematic survey results are used to demonstrate that organized interests actually engage in the same activities in both the international and domestic arenas. This research demonstrates that the climate change negotiations can be characterized as both a policy subsystem and an international regime. It is further argued that these two concepts are in fact highly analogous, thereby facilitating new cross-discipline research opportunities. The research is based on a web survey of organized interests accredited by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and on interviews and field research at the 8th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in New Delhi, India.     

Climate change resilience in the Canadian Arctic: The need for collaboration in the face of a changing landscape

Human-induced changes to global climate have become increasingly difficult to ignore in recent years. As the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increases, the impacts on both natural and human systems are becoming difficult to manage with the current policies. In Canada, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change is the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at a rate two to three times that of the global average. Warmer seasonal temperatures have led to melting permafrost and increased variability in sea ice conditions, which has contributed to a rise in coastal erosion. The ongoing resilience of Arctic communities will depend heavily on their ability to implement successful long-term adaptation policies. The development and implementation of any action on climate change adaptation should involve collaboration with local stakeholders in order to reflect the views and experience of those living in the Arctic.     

The whistleblower and the canary: rhetorical constructions of climate change

This paper is concerned with the historical dimension of the current debates on climate change, and argues that the history of the understanding of climate change has itself become part of the rhetorical account. Key historic moments of disclosure and revelation have become central to the ways in which climate change is presented as a persuasive narrative today. This paper takes a discursive approach to exploring the background of these signal moments in climate change history, and aims to show how they have helped to shape the terms of the current debate.     

Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa

Once it was an environmental issue, then an energy problem, now climate change is being recast as a security threat. So far, the debate has focused on creating a security ‘hook’, illustrated by anecdote, to invest climate negotiations with a greater sense of urgency. Political momentum behind the idea of climate change as a security threat has progressed quickly, even reaching the United Nations Security Council. This article reviews the linkages between climate change and security in Africa and analyses the role of climate change adaptation policies in future conflict prevention. Africa, with its history of ethnic, resource and interstate conflict, is seen by many as particularly vulnerable to this new type of security threat, despite being the continent least responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions. Projected climatic changes for Africa suggest a future of increasingly scarce water, collapsing agricultural yields, encroaching desert and damaged coastal infrastructure. Such impacts, should they occur, would undermine the ‘carrying capacity’ of large parts of Africa, causing destabilizing population movements and raising tensions over dwindling strategic resources. In such cases, climate change could be a factor that tips fragile states into socio‐economic and political collapse. Climate change is only one of many security, environmental and developmental challenges facing Africa. Its impacts will be magnified or moderated by underlying conditions of governance, poverty and resource management, as well as the nature of climate change impacts at local and regional levels. Adaptation policies and programmes, if implemented quickly and at multiple scales, could help avert climate change and other environmental stresses becoming triggers for conflict. But, adaptation must take into account existing social, political and economic tensions and avoid exacerbating them.