PSHA for Broad-Band Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in the Saronikos Gulf,Greece, from Potential Earthquake with Synthetic Ground Motions

We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for broad-band strong ground motion within the Saronikos Gulf region, Greece, from potential earthquakes along the 30 km long Aigina fault in the northern part of the Gulf. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) merged with synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard “attenuation relations.” Our approach considers all significant magnitudes for PSHA and full broadband ground motion simulations. Calculations are source and site specific, and could reduce uncertainties in estimating standard engineering parameters. We use a range of rupture scenarios for all significant magnitude earthquakes along the fault. The hazard calculation is for frequencies 0.0– 15.0 Hz. Recordings of small earthquakes from an onshore/offshore local seismic array were used as EGFs for frequencies of 1.5–15.0 Hz, the finite difference code E3D was utilized to synthesize SGFs for frequencies 0.0–1.5 Hz, and an algorithm for merging the EGFs with SGFs was developed. The full-waveform calculations are important for non-linear dynamic analysis of structures in the coastal zone and potential hazard to long period structures. Results of proposed PSHA identify 2%, 10%, and 50% hazard at the selected sites of Saronikos Gulf.

Finally, we compare our PSHA results to those obtained by standard practice which involves prediction equations (GMPEs) recently developed in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project and empirical predictive attenuation relations proposed for Greece. We believe that differences with the NGA results are due to site- and source-specific information utilized in this study, and incorporation of this information may significantly reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations.     

Unconditional Reliability-Based Design of Tuned Liquid Column Dampers Under Stochastic Earthquake Load Considering System Parameters Uncertainties

The reliability-based design of tuned mass damper considering system parameters uncertainties is noteworthy. However, the same is not the case for liquid dampers. The present study deals with the reliability-based design of tuned liquid column dampers under random earthquake considering system parameters uncertainties. Using the conditional second-order information of response quantities, the total probability concept is applied to evaluate the unconditional failure probability which is subsequently used as the objective function to obtain the damping parameters. A numerical study elucidates the effect of system parameters uncertainties on the damper parameters optimization and safety of the structure.     

Beyond the Mirrored Horizon: Modern Ontology and Amodern Possibilities in the Anthropocene

Early talk of the Anthropocene has been prompted by material evidence of the incoherence of ontological divisions between humanity and the rest of Earth. Yet, ironically, it has also been dominated by modern narratives about human distinction, autonomy, and dominion. Along with recrimination about the death of nature, the modern Anthropocene carries hope of human redemption through natural evolution or technological progress. The resulting narratives of enlightened planetary stewardship reduce earthly multitudes to a common denominator, shoring up the mirrored horizons within which modern humans encounter only themselves. In response, I explore amodern possibilities for action in an Anthropocene beyond modern referents of nature and culture. These possibilities open up choices within planetary dynamics that are inherently human but not reducible to human agency. This is a politics of sustenance attuned to difference and relation and directed to the multitude of human‐other‐than‐human collectives, to the specific shared projects of existence, in which human interests are composed.     

Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief

Although it is widely acknowledged that our understanding of environmental systems cannot be reduced to single predictions and unique explanations, determinism remains a common strategy in physical geography. This paper argues for explicit assessments of uncertainty in environmental data and models as a necessary, although not a sufficient, condition for balancing uncertain scientific arguments against uncertain social, ethical, moral and legal arguments in managing environmental systems. In particular, this paper aims to: (1) demonstrate the importance of assessing uncertainty within a realist research framework; (2) consider the nature of scientific uncertainty as the basis for developing methodologies that question belief; and (3) explore some important aspects of a methodology for evaluating uncertainties in environmental research.     

Economic Transition and Demographic Change in Russia, 1989-1995

A World Bank demographer reviews recent population changes in Russia, relating trends in fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration to the social and economic effects of the transition to a market economy. Significant trends (a precipitous drop in fertility, an extraordinary increase in mortality—especially among middle-aged males—and a consequent decline in natural increase) are identified and analyzed, with dislocations caused by the uncertainties of economic and political transition suggested as the principal causes. The effect of net in-migration to Russia (probably mainly ethnic Russians from the Near Abroad countries) in partially offsetting the natural population decrease is examined as well. 5 tables, 16 references.     

Following the caterpillar fungus: nature,commodity chains,and the place of Tibet in China's uneven geographies

Following caterpillar fungus as it travels from the Tibetan Plateau to wealthy Chinese consumers, this article makes several interventions into geographical studies of commodity chains. First, it argues for an expansion beyond the usual call to connect the political economy of production with cultures of consumption; the cultural politics of production and political economies of consumption must also be considered. Second, it argues for bringing together political economy and more-than-human analytical approaches to commodity chains, showing how nature and the nonhuman play a key role in an assemblage that has allowed Tibetans to navigate livelihoods in a rapidly changing economy. This challenges a tendency to assume a universal figure of ‘the human’ in more-than-human geographies. Third, by connecting the erasure of Tibetans from representations of various natures used to sell caterpillar fungus with the broader politics of Tibetans within the People's Republic of China, we show that commodity fetishism can conceal not just labor relations, but also political struggles not reducible to class. Finally, we show that following a small fungus can shed light on the unevenness of China's capitalist development obscured in monolithic narratives of China's rise, demonstrating the value of expanding commodity chain studies beyond those that end with Western consumers.     

Innovations in teaching Australian foreign policy: trust,simulations, and study tours

ABSTRACT

More than ever as the uncertainties of a digitalised world are upon us and where power shifts to and within the region disrupt the familiar patterns of engagement, the acquisition of the knowledge and competencies necessary for Australia to be a trusted international partner are pressing matters. So too, in the development of both personal and professional skills, our pedagogic remit to students guides us to assist them in learning more about themselves in the process. How, then, should we teach Australian foreign policy and in doing so grow the conjunctive tissue of student self-learning in order to prepare students for the world of diplomacy necessitated by Australia's international workspace? Here, experiential learning can have a powerful effect in the teaching of Australian foreign policy and in the development of students' life and professional skills. Both in-person simulations situated within the context of a thoughtful curriculum, and short-term international mobility study tours can contribute to an effective mix of learning experiences and assist us in moving closer toward effective practice in the current uncertainties and an era of digital transformation.     

Strategic Environmental Planning and Uncertainty: A Cross-National Comparison of Green Plans in Industrialized Countries

Uncertainty is a distinct feature of environmental policy and environmental issues. This article explores the potential of strategic and comprehensive environmental planning for dealing with these uncertainties. First, four types of uncertainty and their specific impacts on environmental policy are distinguished. Strategic environmental planning could be a promising approach for dealing with these uncertainties. Based on an empirical analysis of national environmental policy plans and sustainability strategies in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, this article comes to the conclusion that although only few of the existing green plans fully explore the theoretical potential of this new approach to environmental policymaking, it has proven an effective mechanism to deal with and reduce at least some of the uncertainties with which environmental policymakers are confronted. The greatest potential of strategic planning lies in increasing the political system's capacity to deal with those problems of long-term environmental degradation, which in spite of the past successes of environmental protection remain largely unsolved.     

The Structure of Significant Lives*

A human life is not made up of measurable equal increments. There are crises, setbacks and advances, obstacles and pathways, highs and lows. The prevailing methods for the study of significant lives, insofar as there is any interest at all in the subject, are hampered by scientism and materialism. The means for understanding how we progress as individuals in relation to society and to the future of humankind cannot be found in the standard disciplines of psychology or sociology, which are looking for measurable results and are dominated by the quest for objectivity. Guided primarily by the thought of Eugen Rosenstock-Huessy, we observe here the patterns in the life of two pioneering physicians, centuries apart, Theophrastus von Hohenheim, known as Paracelsus, and Sigmund Freud. Inspiration, revelation, conversion, orientation, grace are at the center, but none of these terms is reducible to material measurement. A new approach is suggested that better informs us about what makes the world go ‘round, the grammatical imperative, which subsumes even love.     

MODELS OF CONTINUITY

Summary. Recent discussions of continuity between Roman and Saxon Britain have not considered in detail the bases of dating, or the model which is being used to explain the transition from one state to the other. This builds considerable dangers and uncertainties into any future work. The problems inherent in late Roman and Early Saxon chronology are aired, the two most obvious current models of transition are considered, rejected, and replaced by a model involving minimal population movement but total change in fashions.     

Persistence of birefringence and specific collagen cross-links in dentine of teeth of the ‘Nuraghi’ population living in Sardinia BC 1500–1200

Well preserved bones of the Nuraghi population, discovered in 1980, are deposited in the Department of Biomedical Sciences, Division of Human Anatomy of the University of Sassari, in Sardinia, Italy. The Giant Tomb belongs to the megalithic monuments constructed in the period BC 1500–1200. The origin, history and the fate of Nuraghi population is not well known. Many cone-shaped fortresses are found in Sicily and megalithic monuments for burial purposes were built in their proximity. Due to the good macroscopic preservation of the mineralized parts of the Nuraghi skeletons we decided to compare the histological and biochemical structure of the recovered Nuraghi teeth with contemporary ones. Crown dentine of four Nuraghi molar and four premolar teeth were analysed and compared with contemporary molars and premolars removed for orthodontic reasons from 17–40-year-old patients in the Dental School, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill USA. Evaluation of the collagen cross-links of dentine collagen was performed using a HPLC technique to analyze for hydrolysates. Nonreducible, stable cross-links pyridinoline and its lysyl analogue were quantified by fluorescence (excitation 330 nm, emission 390 nm). The concentration of reducible, labile cross-links referred to as DHLNL and HLNL (dehydro-dihydroxylisinorleucine) were identified and calculated by chromatography after the application of NaB³H₄ with integration of respective peaks and converting the numbers into a residue per mole of collagen basis. The ultrastructure of collagen was estimated by its persistent birefringence in polarized light after staining with Picrosirus Red. It was found that dentine collagen of Nuraghi teeth resisted environmental factors sufficiently well to preserve the molecular ultrastructure of collagen fibres, proved by their birefringence and by the preservation of some of the stable and reducible collagen cross-links, characteristic for skeletal tissues. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Knowledge-Based Performance Assessment of Existing RC Buildings

One of the most challenging aspects of the seismic assessment of existing buildings is the characterization of structural modeling uncertainties. Recent codes, such as Eurocode 8, seem to synthesize the effect of structural modeling uncertainties in the so-called confidence factors that are applied to mean material property estimates. The confidence factors are classified and tabulated as a function of discrete knowledge levels acquired based on the results of specific in-situ tests and inspections. In this approach, the effect of the application of the confidence factors on structural assessment is not explicitly stated. This work presents probabilistic performance-based proposals for seismic assessments of RC buildings based on the knowledge levels. These proposals take advantage of the Bayesian framework for updating the probability distributions for structural modeling parameters based on the results of tests and inspections. As structural modeling parameters, both the mechanical material properties and also the structural detailing parameters are considered. These proposals can be categorized based both on the amount of structural analysis effort required and on the type of structural analysis performed. An efficient Bayesian method is presented which relies on simplified assumptions and employs a small sample of structural model realizations and ground motion records in order to provide an estimate of structural reliability. As an alternative proposal suitable for code implementation, the simplified approach implemented in the SAC-FEMA guidelines is adapted to existing structures by employing the efficient Bayesian method. This method takes into account the effect of both ground motion uncertainty and the structural modeling uncertainties on the global performance of the structure, in a closed-form analytical safety-checking format. These alternative proposals are demonstrated for the case study structure which is an existing RC frame. In particular, it is shown how the parameters for the safety-checking format can be estimated and tabulated as a function of knowledge level, outcome of tests, and the type of structural analysis adopted.     

Regional Planning in the Catalan Pyrenees: Strategies to Deal with Actors' Expectations,Perceived Uncertainties and Conflicts

Drawing on three case studies in the Catalan Pyrenees (Spain), this paper shows how interactions between planners and stakeholders influence expectations, uncertainties and conflicts during the planning process. Therewith, it provides further understanding of performance of regional planning beyond the formality of plans and policies. The case studies illustrate how planners' actions can either generate uncertainty, conflicts and frustration, or common understanding, agreements and positive expectations. With these insights, planners can be more conscious about the effects of their communicative strategies on the multiple perceptions of the planning process. Planners need to deal with interpretations of other actors, and they have to be aware of others' expectations and uncertainties. The positive effect of interactions has limitations because of the unavoidable existence of different perceptions and interests concerning a plan. Nevertheless, planners can generate even greater conflicts themselves if the perceptions from other stakeholders are ignored.     

Climate change,environmental degradation and armed conflict

Climate change is expected to bring about major change in freshwater availability, the productive capacity of soils, and in patterns of human settlement. However, considerable uncertainties exist with regard to the extent and geographical distribution of these changes. Predicting scenarios for how climate-related environmental change may influence human societies and political systems necessarily involves an even higher degree of uncertainty. The direst predictions about the impacts of global warming warn about greatly increased risks of violent conflict over increasingly scarce resources such as freshwater and arable land. We argue that our best guess about the future has to be based on our knowledge about the relationship between demography, environment and violent conflict in the past. Previous rigorous studies in the field have mostly focused on national-level aggregates. This article represents a new approach to assess the impact of environment on internal armed conflict by using georeferenced (GIS) data and small geographical, rather than political, units of analysis. It addresses some of the most important factors assumed to be strongly influenced by global warming: land degradation, freshwater availability, and population density and change. While population growth and density are associated with increased risks, the effects of land degradation and water scarcity are weak, negligible or insignificant. The results indicate that the effects of political and economic factors far outweigh those between local level demographic/environmental factors and conflict.     

Climate in the eastern Mediterranean,and adjacent regions,during the past 6000 years – A review

The eastern Mediterranean, with its long archaeological and historical records, provides a unique opportunity to study human responses to climate variability. We review paleoclimate data and reconstructions from the region with a focus on the last 6000 years. We aim to provide an up-to-date source of information on climate variability and to outline present limitations and future opportunities. The review work is threefold: (1) literature review, (2) spatial and temporal analysis of proxy records, and (3) statistical estimation of uncertainties in present paleoclimate reconstructions (temperature, °C). On a regional scale the review reveals a wetter situation from 6000 to 5400 yrs BP (note: all ages in this paper are in calibrated years before present (i.e. before 1950), abbreviated yrs BP, unless otherwise stated). This is followed by a less wet period leading up to one of fully-developed aridity from c. 4600 yrs BP. There is a need for more high-resolution paleoclimate records, in order to (i) better understand regional patterns and trends versus local climate variability and to (ii) fill the gap of data from some regions, such as the Near East, Greece and Egypt. Further, we evaluate the regional occurrence of a proposed widespread climate event at 4200 yrs BP. This proposed climate anomaly has been used to explain profound changes in human societies at different locations in the region around this time. We suggest that although aridity was widespread around 4200 yrs BP in the eastern Mediterranean region, there is not enough evidence to support the notion of a climate event with rapidly drying conditions in this region.     

Global change in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere region: has it already arrived?

This tutorial review describes some possible future scenarios for changes in temperature and water vapor in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region (50–100 km). The structure and dynamics of this region are controlled by physical processes, some of which are very different than in the lower atmosphere, such as gravity-wave breaking, radiative transfer in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium and airglow cooling. The couplings between the various atmospheric properties are illustrated by the use of a 2D zonally-symmetric model ranging from 16 to 120 km. The importance of temperature and water vapor for the occurrence and scattered brightness of mesospheric clouds (at a height of about 83 km) is described in terms of their influence on nucleation, growth and sedimentation of ice particles. At the cold mesopause at high latitude, IR effects would warm the region without dynamical feedbacks, which in the 2D model to be described, cause a net cooling at all latitudes and seasons. The effects of a future doubling of carbon dioxide and methane (and a past halving) are examined by means of the same 2D model. All models predict a future lowering of temperature throughout much, if not all of the MLT region, as a result of enhanced IR cooling and dynamical feedbacks. The rise of methane will lead to an enhancement of water vapor concentrations throughout the upper atmosphere. The cloud existence region, defined in terms of water-ice saturation, is predicted to extend to lower-latitude, high population areas in the future. In a glacial-era scenario, the existence region is found to be confined to a small region near the summertime polar mesopause. Over the past century, with a doubling of methane and a 30% increase in carbon dioxide, the mesospheric cloud existence region may, have advanced from near the pole to its current location inside the 50°–90° latitude zone. The uncertainties in current models and need for further studies are discussed.     

FINITE FAULT MODELLING OF NEAR-FIELD ROCK MOTIONS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

Due to lack of strong motion records, point-source and finite-fault models have been used to simulate far-field motions at Memphis and St. Louis Cities from earthquake events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, near-field rock motions and their associated uncertainties have never been studied within this zone. The objectives of this study are to develop a simple procedure to account for the uncertainty effect of earthquake source parameters, to analyze the sensitivity of near-field rock motions to input source parameters, and finally, to generate rock motions at two sites located within 11 km from the southwestern segment (strike-fault) and a third site bove the Reelfoot Rift (reverse fault) using a well-validated finite-fault simulation program; FINSIM. An equal-weight logic tree was developed to ensure that the assumed uncertainties are within physical, geological, and seismological constraints. For each site, 100 acceleration time histories with various combinations of parameter uncertainties were respectively simulated for an earthquake of M _w 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0 from each of the two faults. Their average spectral accelerations were in good agreement with those derived from the attenuation relation-ships representative to the Central and Eastern United States. Numerical simulations indicated that spectral accelerations are sensitive to the slip velocity, depth to top of fault, fault strike, slip distribution, and hypocentre location along the strike.     

Kant on Hobbes,peace, and obedience

Kant's essay ‘On the common saying: “This may be true in theory, but it does not apply in practice”’ contains a chapter ‘On the relationship of theory to practice in political right’ to which he added, in brackets, ‘(Against Hobbes)’. The problem is that Kant leaves his Hobbes-criticism implicit. The main point seems to be the Hobbes's citizens are without any rights. We explore the differences and similarities between Kant's and Hobbes's political views and evaluate the effectiveness of Kant's criticism. We pay attention to Nominalism and Platonism, the idea of happiness in social life, the use and role of the Golden Rule (Categorical Imperative) in political thought, the quest for freedom, and the principle of political non-resistance. Especially freedom of speech is important for Kant as an Enlightenment thinker. This is the only right Kant's citizens may have, independently of the sovereign's will. Our conclusion is that both Kant and Hobbes emphasize peace and order under sovereign power although they do not agree on how such an ideal can be achieved.     

Luminescence geochronology and paleoenvironmental implications of coastal deposits of southeast Cyprus

Quaternary stratigraphy and sea level changes have been extensively investigated in many areas of the Mediterranean. However, numerical dating of coastal deposits and the associated paleoenvironmental information are limited for the coasts of Cyprus, principally based on radiometric and radiation-exposure geochronological techniques on fossils which bear a range of limitations and uncertainties. As such, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating techniques are deemed to be the most suitable in direct dating of the coastal sediments of Cyprus. In the southeastern Cyprus, coastal dunes (aeolianites) now forming elongated ridges appear as morphological features running parallel to the current shoreline presenting an indicator of sea level and climate changes of great paleoenvironmental significance. We present our first chronological results for the exposed aeolianites and underlying littoral deposits formed along the southeastern coastal Cyprus ranging from 78.4 ± 9.9 to 56.2 ± 7.4 ka. The post-infrared–infrared stimulated luminescence (pIR-IRSL) revealed that dune formation took place during the marine isotope stages (MISs) 3, 4, and possibly 5a. Late Holocene reworking is proposed for a distinctively isolated dune with an age of ~1.3 ka ago. This study also showed that pIR-IRSL dating of feldspars may be a reliable alternative to quartz OSL dating when the quartz luminescence characteristics are unsuitable.     

Sex,fertility and menstruation among the Beng of the Ivory Coast: a symbolic analysis

An attempt is made in this discussion to relocate the topic of menstruation in a new framework, one not directly defined by gender and not restricted to the view that menstrual blood and menstrual pollution are by definition viewed negatively. The Beng (Ivory Coast) notions of menstruation are explored as they relate to wider concepts of pollution and fertility. The analysis demonstrates how menstrual pollution among the Beng forms part of another type of pollution--the spatio symbolic pollution of human fertility when it is removed from its proper place--and how, rather than debasing women, menstruation serves to have added value to a major aspect of women's labor--that of cooking. There are 3 rules which Beng observe concerning menstruation: no initiated, married, or previously married woman who is menstruating may set foot in the forest for any reason other than to defecate; a menstruating woman may not touch a corpse; and a man may not eat food cooked by his wife during the days she is menstruating, nor may a Master of the Earth eat food cooked by any menstruating woman. At first, these taboos appear to be another case of the pollution of women through menstruation and another instance of women's oppression. When explored, the Master of Earth explained that menstrual blood is considered as special because it carries in it a living being and that menstrual blood is like the flower which must emerge before the fruit--the baby--can be born. No answer was provided to the question of pollution. There seemed to be no other rules specifying what activities a woman should or should not pursue during menstruation. She is not isolated from the flux of social life, and sexual activiity during menstruation, though not commonly done, is not taboo. The fact that it is only working in the forest, and not other activities, that is prohibited to menstruating women reveals that menstruation is not regarded as dangerous to men or as polluting in general. Rather, menstrual blood is seen as a symbol of human fertility, and for this reason is not allowed to touch the forest/fields, which are viewed as a form of Earth fertility. Forest/field fertility and village fertility must be conceptually kept apart, according to the Beng view of the world. Similarly, Beng husbands may not eat food cooked by their menstruating wives for a related reason. Menstruating women who cook are handling crops produced in the forest/fields, and their husbands, with whom they produce (village) children, must therefore avoid contact with such food, lest the 2 realms of village and forest fertility be mixed. Food cooked by menstruating women is agreed by all Beng to be the most delicious of all Beng food, thus giving positive value to an activity of menstruating women.