LOCAL INPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: 1972–2002*

ABSTRACT This research analyzes manufacturing growth and decline across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions during the 1972–2002 period. We decompose real value added growth across local labor market areas in the lower 48 U.S. states into contributions from labor, capital, and total factor productivity. We then estimate a model describing the long‐run growth of labor, capital, and productivity and find that increased productivity increases the growth of labor and capital, as well as a positive correlation between labor and capital stock growth. We also find evidence that human capital investment and agglomeration economies encourage productivity growth, while unionization discourages it.     

Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations

Neoclassical theory assumes diminishing returns to capital and spatially constant exogenously-determined technological progress, although it is questionable whether these are realistic assumptions for modeling manufacturing productivity growth variations across European Union (E.U.) regions. In contrast, the model developed in this paper assumes increasing returns and spatially varying technical progress, and is linked to endogenous growth theory and particularly to 'new economic geography' theory. Simulations, involving 178 E.U.regions, show that productivity levels and growth rates are higher in all E.U. regions when the financially assisted (Objective 1) regions have faster output growth. This also reduces inequalities in levels of technology. Allowing the core regions to grow faster has a similar effect of raising productivity growth rates across the E.U., although inequality increases. Thus, the simulations are seen as an attempt to develop a type of 'computable geographical equilibrium' model which, as suggested by Fujita, Krugman, and Venables (1999), is the way theoretical economic geography needs to evolve in order to become a predictive discipline.     

Accounting for Air Pollution Emissions in Measures of State Manufacturing Productivity Growth

A Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index is employed to account for both marketed output and the output of pollution abatement activities of U.S. state manufacturing sectors for –1986. The index allows us to decompose the change in productivity into measures of change in efficiency and technical change. By accounting for the change in emissions, average annual productivity growth is 3.6 percent, whereas it is 1.7 percent when emissions are ignored. We also find adjusted productivity growth improved after 1977, and "Frost Belt" states with rapidly growing manufacturing sectors have significantly higher rates of productivity growth than "Sun Belt" states with slow growing manufacturing sectors.     

Technical Inefficiency and Public Capital in U.S. States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

This paper estimates a translog stochastic frontier production function in the analysis of all 48 contiguous U.S. states in the period 1970–1983, to attempt to measure and explain changes in technical efficiency. The model allows technical inefficiency to vary over time, and inefficiency effects to be a function of a set of explanatory variables in which the level and composition of public capital plays an important role. Results indicate that U.S. state inefficiency levels are significantly and positively correlated with the ratio of public capital to private capital. The proportion of public capital devoted to highways is negatively correlated with technical inefficiency, suggesting that not only the level but also the composition of public capital influences state efficiency.     

产业要素配置结构对生产率的影响研究——以杨凌示范区为例

本文基于要素生产率变动的视角,以杨凌示范区为例,在分析产业要素配置结构对生产率的作用路径基础上,通过估算资本存量,分析产业要素配置结构的构成,并利用偏离-份额法研究产业要素配置结构对生产率的影响作用。研究结果表明,杨凌示范区存在产业要素错配,第二产业成为杨凌示范区经济增长的核心部门,而第一产业的要素投入与发展农业现代化的目标不协调;劳动生产率的增长主要来自产业内部的增长效应,而非配置效应,其经济增长主要依赖要素投入带来的产业规模扩张;资本生产率的增长主要来源于产业内部的作用,在杨凌示范区发展初期,产业要素配置结构对资本要素生产率起到了阻碍作用,但这一情况正在逐渐改善。     

The Politics of an Emergent Global Regime for Controlling Tax Competition

This article probes what I call the emergent global regime for controlling tax competition. Since at least the early 1990s, states have perceived that competition for investment, whether through direct subsidies or tax incentives, threatens to undermine the fiscal underpinnings of the modern state, particularly in terms of its provision of social welfare programs. As states have provided financial or fiscal subsidies to capital (especially mobile capital), they have had to compensate through some combination of imposing higher levels of taxation on other actors, running higher deficits, and cutting spending. Each has shown itself to have substantial problems, and the response of states has now come full circle: to reconsider the competition for investment that causes the fiscal problems in the first place.     

Firm-level productivity growth returns of social capital: Evidence from Western Europe

We analyze the firm-level labor productivity growth returns of social capital—defined as a synthetic measure of “generalized trust,” “active participation,” and “social norms”—using a large sample of manufacturing firms in France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. We find that firms' labor productivity growth is higher in areas with a better social capital endowment. The positive returns of social capital are, nevertheless, unevenly distributed across firms, with smaller, less productive, less capital-endowed, and low-tech firms benefitting the most from operating in strong social capital ecosystems.     

THE EMPLOYMENT CREATION EFFECTS OF FACTOR SUBSIDIES: SOME ESTIMATES FOR NORTHERN IRELAND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY, 1955-1983

In this paper, I use estimates of the parameters of an industry demand function and a CES production function for Northern Ireland manufacturing in order to measure the relative impact of factor subsidies on employment, capital, and output. A simulation model is able to differentiate the output and substitution effects of subsidies. The results indicate that since manufacturing industry in the province tends to operate with a labor-intensive technology and, since its price-elasticity of demand for output is very low, the employment creating effects of capital subsidies are strongly negative.     

引进外资对中国工业化和经济结构变化的影响

本文从中国经济增长两个阶段的不同特点入手,分析了90年代中期以后中国大量引进外资的深层次原因。采用制造业增加值占GDP的比重作为衡量中国工业化进展程度的指标对整个90年代中国工业化的进程进行了实证分析,结果发现,中国的工业化从90年代中期以来实际上长期处于低速徘徊的阶段。大量引进外资导致中国工业化过程中存在两个明显的"替代效应",一是"外资替代效应",二是"弱质替代强质"现象。两个"替代效应"对中国工业化和经济结构变化的影响是极为深刻的。     

The Pace of Indian Urbanization

In contrast with conventional formulations of urban growth, Tolley proposed a simple, supply-driven model relying upon the intersectoral differential in nonlabor productivity growth as the prime motivator of urbanization in developing countries. In the present paper, we apply Tolley's model to India over the period 1951–1981 and attempt to explain its mixed performance in tracking the pace of urbanization in that country. A modified version, adjusted for inter-regional migration, is then simulated for individual Indian states; the exercise confirms actual urban growth during 1971–81 to have been generally below that predicted by Tolley's model. Tolley's assumptions then are tested through an examination of the relationship between urban growth rates and translog indexes of intertemporal productivity growth. Finally, exploratory analysis of Tolley-model deviations in the various states is used to suggest directions for extending urban growth formulations for India. We conclude with a normative examination of policy implications.     

Whose Wealth Is It Anyway? Mozambique's Outstanding Economic Growth with Worsening Rural Poverty

Despite rapid economic growth and massive inflows of aid, rural poverty in Mozambique is worsening. Agricultural production and productivity have not increased in the last decade. Use of chemical fertilizers and other modern technology is at a low level and decreasing. The present development model emphasizes that the role of government and donors is to provide human capital and infrastructure, while the private sector is responsible for economic development and ending poverty. The most recent national surveys confirm what is being seen elsewhere in Africa — that this non‐interventionist strategy does not raise agricultural productivity or reduce poverty. While 80 per cent of Mozambique's population is engaged in agriculture, this sector contributes only 20 per cent of GDP. This suggests that investments in agriculture are likely to generate pro‐poor growth, both to rural and urban dwellers. This policy failure is increasingly recognized, but donors and government have invested too much political capital in the current policy to change easily.     

Regional Efficiency in the European Union

This paper examines existing disparities in technical efficiency levels across the European regions over the period 1986–2002. The results reveal that technical efficiency is not randomly distributed across space in the European setting. On the contrary, the different tests performed highlight the presence of positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the distribution under consideration. In fact, we have detected several regional clusters characterized by similar efficiency levels distinguishing them from the rest of the sample. Nevertheless, the estimates carried out show the existence of a process of regional convergence in terms of technical efficiency during the study period. Our findings also reveal that factors such as the regional stock of capital per worker or the patterns of productive specialization are relevant in explaining the changes in technical efficiency experienced by the European regions between 1986 and 2002.     

Access to capital markets and the geography of productivity leaders and laggards

This paper examines whether access to the capital market of convertible and nonconvertible bonds affects total factor productivity (TFP) for the population of Italian joint stock manufacturing companies, based in highly segmented local financial markets, between 2007 and 2017. The hypothesis, well grounded in the literature, is that long-term capital favors investment in intangibles and other risky assets necessary for productivity growth. To identify this effect, we exploit the exogenous shock of the Italian banking deregulation of the mid-1990s as an instrument for firm-level access to capital, interacted with distance from logistic networks. These reforms changed the distribution of the type of branches at the local level, increasing the share of joint stock banks, which have high connections to international capital markets. This geographical reallocation of banking activities ultimately affected firms' financial structure, favouring their access to capital, even when based in peripheral financial areas. Firms which issued instruments of market debt achieved higher levels of productivity and a higher probability to reach top percentiles of productivity distribution.     

The Impact of Neutral and Nonneutral Productivity Growth on Creative Capital in a Trading Regional Economy. 区域经济贸易中中性和非中性生产力增长对创新资本的影响

We analyze a two‐sector model of a trading creative regional economy (TCRE) of the sort studied by Florida. Our analysis focuses on two cases. The first case concerns the impact of faster neutral, whereas the second case concerns the impact of faster nonneutral, productivity growth in the tradable sector on the employment of creative people in each of a TCRE's two sectors. In both cases, the sign of the percentage change in the steady‐state use of creative capital in the nontradable sector is ambiguous. In other words, the potential departure of creative people from the tradable to the nontradable sector does not depend upon whether the faster productivity growth being studied is neutral or nonneutral. In addition, because the effects of faster productivity growth in the tradable sector are not necessarily innocuous, a potential role exists for activist policy designed to countermand the possibly negative effects of faster productivity growth on either the tradable or the nontradable sector. This finding of possible “uneven development” is consistent with Florida's view that TCREs can give rise to externalities such as uneven regional development.     

产业联系与外资溢出效应-对浙江省制造业的实证研究

本文探讨水平联系、前向联系和后向联系对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响。利用浙江省制造业数据,通过实证分析发现,浙江省制造业外资总体上具有水平负向溢出效应,同时通过后向联系产生正向溢出效应。水平负向溢出效应主要是外资企业带来的激烈竞争所导致的,产业后向联系产生的正向溢出效应主要通过外资企业的本地采购发生。浙江省内资制造业企业并没有从购买外资企业中间投入品而显著提升效率。     

Knowledge Spillovers and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence Using a Spatial Panel Data Model

This article investigates the impact of knowledge capital stocks on total factor productivity (TFP) through the lens of the knowledge capital model proposed by Griliches (1979) , augmented with a spatially discounted cross-region knowledge spillover pool variable. The objective is to shift attention from firms and industries to regions and to estimate the impact of cross-region knowledge spillovers on TFP in Europe. The dependent variable is the region-level TFP, measured in terms of the superlative TFP index suggested by Caves, Christensen, and Diewert (1982) . This index describes how efficiently each region transforms physical capital and labor into output. The explanatory variables are internal and out-of-region stocks of knowledge, the latter capturing the contribution of cross-region knowledge spillovers. We construct patent stocks to proxy annual regional knowledge capital stocks for N =203 regions during 1997–2002. In estimating the effects, we implement a spatial panel data model that controls for spatial autocorrelation as well as individual heterogeneity across regions. The findings provide a fairly remarkable confirmation of the role of knowledge capital contributing to productivity differences among regions and add an important spatial dimension to discussions in the literature by showing that productivity effects of knowledge spillovers increase with geographic proximity.     

Growth and Convergence Profiles in the Spanish Provinces (1965–1997)*

Abstract. Economic performance in Spanish provinces has led to a considerable improvement in standard of living of their populations. Intense capital accumulation since the 1950s played a key roll in this process. Provincial inequalities may increase or decrease as a result of this growth pattern. This study analyzes the evolution of the disparities by means of distribution dynamics techniques. It explicitly considers economic size of each province and whether spatial spillovers exist. Results indicate that the convergence process has been especially intense for labor productivity, total factor productivity, and capital intensity, while for per capita income the patterns of convergence are less marked. When we weight our analysis according to economic size of each province, our conclusions do not hold. However, when we take geographic location into account, we find support for our conclusions.     

The effect of congestion and agglomeration on multifactor productivity growth in Dutch regions

It is well known that labour productivity growth in Europe isslowing down, against an increasing growth rate in the US. TheNetherlands is one of the countries in Europe with the lowestgrowth rates of productivity. This article looks at this phenomenonfrom a regional perspective and presents the results of a growthaccounting exercise applied to regional industry data of TheNetherlands between 1995 and 2002. We find that slow productivitygrowth in The Netherlands is particularly situated in the economiccore regions and is caused by slow multifactor productivity(mfp) growth. A substantial part of this slow mfp-growth canbe explained by the fact that positive agglomeration advantagesare overruled by negative congestion effects caused by trafficjams.     

Regulating the global infrastructure of film labor exploitation

Confronted by media globalization, many governments have expressed concern about the productive capacity of domestic screen media institutions that are aiming to sustain the allegiances of resident populations. Policymakers are furthermore aware that creative labor is now widely perceived as a resource worth cultivating for its perceived benefits as a catalyst to economic innovation and productivity. In fear of being left behind, countries with even modest resources have fashioned a range of subsidies, tax breaks, and other enticements that have facilitated the emergence of a global production infrastructure that favors producers and media conglomerates at the expense of screen media workers. This mounting crisis of creative labor calls for a critical reassessment of the fundamental rationales behind these film policies and encourages speculation about new directions for cultural activism. Drawing inspiration from environmental studies, this essay advances the concept of stewardship as a geographically scalable approach to the challenges of media globalization.     

Looking in the wrong direction? Reflections on Italy's most recent ‘crisis’

This paper argues that, rather than focus on Italy's well-known institutional deficits, especially vis-à-vis its larger, more prosperous European neighbours, we should examine instead the experiences of another set of countries (India, Israel, etc.) that have promoted economic reform and growth through entrepreneurship. Relying on cross-national networks to provide local firms with capital, technology, market access and managerial skills, firms in these other countries were able to supplement or even circumvent institutional deficiencies in their home countries and build successful enterprises. Perhaps a similar strategy could be pursued by Italy's small and medium-sized firms and thus help relaunch growth in the Italian economy.