Policy Coalitions in the U.S. Congress: A Spatial Duration Modeling Approach

This paper applies spatial duration models to the analysis of cosponsorship coalitions in the U.S. House of Representatives. This approach provides a unique and simultaneous statistical analysis of ideological space (specifically, coalition formation) and geographical space. Typically, duration models are associated with temporal longitudinal data, but recently have been adapted to the spatial domain (Pellegrini and Reader 1996). In this paper, spatial duration models are further adapted to examine ideological space including a consideration of unobserved sources of spatial variation (or omitted variable bias). We examine two features of cosponsorship coalitions, breadth and clustering. Breadth is defined as the ideological distance between the two most extreme members of the coalition which is an important “signal” to the rest of Congress regarding the scope and broad appeal of the proposed legislation. In contrast, clustering refers to the distance between individual members of a coalition and reveals the tendency, or not, of ideologically similar members of Congress to support various bills. To examine breadth and clustering, we employ spatial duration models of cosponsorship that permit a multivariate analysis incorporating both the characteristics of members of Congress and the geographical regions they represent. Results indicate that cosponsorship coalition patterns are primarily determined by the content of the legislation, not the actions of the coalition leadership. While the leadership characteristics of sponsors have a limited effect on cosponsorship breadth, the size of the coalition is the primary determinent. Leadership characteristics also have little effect on cosponsorship clustering. Rather, clustering is due to members' policy preferences, as measured by distance to the coalition leader. In addition, the duration analysis results suggest that geographical proximity between members of Congress “overcomes” ideological distance. Finally, the spatial duration approach is noted as a fruitful methodology for examining explicitly spatial patterns in both ideological or geographical space.     

“剩余品”时代美国的对外粮食援助政策

内容自20世纪20年代起,农产品过剩问题一直困扰着美国。二战后初期,这一问题危及美国的农业安全。为处理剩余粮食,美国制定了《1954年农产品贸易开发与援助法》,即480公法,以无偿与有偿援助等方式对外提供粮食,从而开启了制度化的对外粮食援助计划。50年代末,美国将该计划命名为“以粮食换和平”计划,以突出利用粮食援助拉拢第三世界国家、遏制共产主义的功能。处理剩余农产品和为冷战遏制战略服务,成为这一时期美国对外粮食援助政策的两大目标。     

Spatial Competition and Bounded Rationality: Retailing at the Edge of Chaos

The spatial dimension of competition among retail outlets is well researched and typically captured with spatial interaction models. A stream of theoretical research has studied the consequences of incorporating various types of dynamics into these models. We build on this research by incorporating a behavioral decision process based on bounded rationality, and by allowing for unexpected adversity in the environment in the form of exogenous shocks. Given these characteristics—spatial competition, boundedly rational decision making, and environmental adversity—we study the long-run dynamics of a model retail industry. The model reaches a stochastic steady state which is “poised,” in the sense that a shock may—or may not—trigger a wave of innovation which sweeps the entire system. Detailed investigation of this steady state shows that it has the characteristics of a general type of organization, known as self-organized criti-cality, that has been described in both theoretical biology and statistical physics.     

Centralized Governance and Student Outcomes: Excellence,Equity, and Academic Achievement in the U.S. States

Are states with more centralized approaches to education governance more likely to have higher student achievement and lower achievement gaps between poor and nonpoor students? This article addresses that question by theorizing about the effects of political, administrative, and fiscal centralization on student outcomes. It tests competing hypotheses about the degree to which centralization across these three dimensions is associated with the promotion of academic excellence (higher achievement) and equity (narrower achievement gaps). The results demonstrate the virtue of studying academic performance through the lens of governance and more distal system‐level variables rather than, as has been common in the literature, more narrow policy‐oriented measures. The findings show that strong relationships exist between student outcomes and the degree of political centralization and administrative centralization in a state, yet there are no apparent associations with fiscal centralization. The results also illustrate that governing arrangements are not consistently related to the advancement of excellence and equity. In terms of administrative centralization, specifically, apparent trade‐offs may exist.     

Spatial Aspects of Capacity Change by U.S. Integrated Steel Producers

This paper examines changes in the location of ore-based steel-makingcapacity in the U.S. over the period 1974 to 1991 using data on each of the 45 ore-based mills that were in operation in 1974. We find that the geographic ddistributions of demand and of competition from minimills and imports were important in determining where capacity reductions occurred and which plants were closed. Technology in use at the plant also affected capacity adjustment. However, we find that regional variation in prices of raw materials were notimportant factors in determining where steel-making capacity was reduced.     

A Note on the Spatial Correlation Structure of County-Level Growth in the U.S.

This paper examines the spatial correlation structure of county-level growth across the contiguous United States. Estimated spatial correlograms using data on four different measures of aggregate economic activity—population, employment, income, and earnings—over the period 1984–1994 indicate that cross-county interdependence is limited to relatively short ranges of distance. For each of the measures, the average correlation between the growth rates of two counties approaches zero within a range of approximately 200 miles. Moreover, the rate at which correlations decline with distance is not uniform. Inside of roughly 40 miles correlations show only a very slow rate of decline whereas beyond this range they drop off at a substantially higher rate.     

Governance and Performance: Theory-Based Evidence from U.S. Coast Guard Inspections

Law enforcement by the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is characterized by soft penalties for safety violations, low incidence of penalties relative to the number of violations, and substantial resources devoted to inspections of vessels. Under what conditions can such an enforcement strategy be effective? And is it? This article seeks answers to these two questions. Harrington's (1988 ) model is motivated by such facts about U.S. regulation in general, and provides an answer to the first question via targeting of good and poor performers. The model generates hypotheses about optimal regulation in the context of pollution prevention activities of the USCG. In order to answer the second question, an organization‐level panel data set consisting of thousands of U.S. flag tank barges is constructed and those hypotheses tested. A count model that controls for vessel heterogeneity yields mixed evidence. If USCG inspections are considered exogenous variables (as the theory presumes), they appear to prevent pollution spills. But if inspections are endogenous and respond to previous spills, then correcting for endogeneity reverses the earlier result. In addition, violations are found to be good predictors of pollution occurrences, suggesting that inspections are not as effective as they could be. Targeting, as in Harrington's model, therefore appears to be incomplete, and the findings suggest that more complete targeting could increase performance. An interesting finding is that stronger penalties could increase performance.     

The Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the U.S. States

In this paper we use time-series techniques to examine whether monetary policy had symmetric effects across U.S. states during the 1958:1–1992:4 period. Impulse response functions from estimated structural vector autoregression models reveal differences in policy responses, which in some cases are substantial. We provide evidence on the reasons for the measured cross-state differential policy responses. The size of a state's response is significantly related to industry-mix variables, providing evidence of an interest rate channel for monetary policy, although the state-level data offer no support for recently advanced credit-channel theories.     

JFK and the U.S.-Israeli Relationship

Book reviewed:
Warren Bass. Support Any Friend: Kennedy's Middle East and the Making of the U.S.-Israel Alliance . New York: Oxford University Press, 2003. 336 pp. Notes, bibliography, index. $30.00 (hardcover).