DEVELOPMENT OF THE CASPIAN SHORELINE UNDER THE PRESENT INCREASE IN ITS LEVEL

The authors, questioning the implications for the Caspian of a conventional model of shoreline dynamics on a flat, sandy coast upon a rise in sea level, present the findings of field observations made along the Dagestan shore during the period (post-1977) of the recent rise of the Caspian Sea level. They argue that changes in coastal morphology have varied largely according to the steepness of the offshore slope and, in general, sharply accelerated erosion was observed only on more steeply sloping sections of coast and in areas previously protected by rock benches (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

发展民营经济增加吉林省就业和收入研究

当我国改革开放的历史车轮向21世纪胜利推进的时候,失业和再就业这个跨世纪难题已凸现在我们面前。在当前的形势下,国有企业本身消化失业的能力已十分有限,靠国有企业解决失业的思路难以成为现实。比较可行的选择是大力发展民营经济,以此消除国有企业冗员劳动力向民营经济转移的所有制障碍,增强吸纳国有企业存量劳动力和社会新增劳动力的能力。吉林省作为一个农业大省,农村剩余劳动力庞大;同时,作为国家老工业基地,国有企业改革所带来的下岗失业问题更为严峻。启动民营经济对缓解目前吉林省城乡就业压力、增加人民收入,进而带动消费和促进经济发展有着重要的现实意义。     

经济增长与产业结构调整下的陕西省生态压力研究

基于生态文明建设的理念,利用生态足迹的理论和方法,分析陕西省1978-2006年的经济增长、产业结构调整与生态压力变化的关系。对6个反映经济增长和产业结构调整的指标进行因子分析,根据其载荷的大小确定了经济增长和产业结构两个因子,并据此分析陕西省经济增长与产业结构调整下的生态压力的演变特征。结果显示:经济增长对生态压力的影响要大于产业结构调整的影响,经济增长使区域生态压力增大,而产业结构的调整对生态压力的变化有一定的调节作用,减缓了经济增长对生态环境的压力。     

不同类型道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率的影响——基于ZG市的实证研究

道路密度对犯罪分布存在影响已得到大多数学者的证实,但忽略了不同类型道路属性的差异对犯罪的影响。不同类型道路在社会-建成环境等各种属性方面存在较大的差异,因此明确不同类型道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率存在的影响有助于犯罪的防控。基于此,本文以派出所为单元构建多元线性回归模型进行研究。研究发现,不同类型道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率影响不同：城市次干道、城市支路和其他可通车道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率有正向影响;不可通车道路密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率有负向影响;城市主干道密度对公共空间盗窃犯罪率影响不显著。不同类型道路社会-建成环境的差异是公共空间盗窃犯罪率不同的原因。研究结果可为犯罪精准防控提供指导。     

THE ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE DISTRIBUTION IN SILEX BY AUTORADIOGRAPHY IN THE CONTEXT OF DOSE RATE DETERMINATION FOR THERMOLUMINESCENCE DATING

A combination of two autoradiography methods was applied to investigate the radionuclide distribution patterns in a range of different silices. We obtained greyscale images (β‐radiation) and α‐track patterns for qualitative assessment, and used a statistical approach to quantify the degree of uniformity of the radiation fields. It was found that almost all samples are poor in potassium, thorium and uranium, and that locally high concentrations are present only in dark‐coloured veins and inclusions. Statistical analyses reveal evidence of radionuclide clustering in more than half of the 21 specimens. Concerning thermoluminescence dating of burnt lithics, such gradients should be taken into account to improve precision and accuracy in cases where the external radiation is not strongly dominating for the sample under consideration.     

COMPOSITIONAL INHOMOGENEITY OF SEDIMENTS AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON DOSE RATE ESTIMATION FOR ELECTRON SPIN RESONANCE DATING OF TOOTH ENAMEL

We present results of particle size and radioactivity analyses of sediment samples collected from five sites with different burial environments. The uranium, thorium and potassium concentrations in the five sample sets are shown to vary with particle size. The potential effects of the observed size-dependent variations on electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of tooth enamel are assessed using two hypothetical models. Our results show that any bias to relatively fine fractions could result in a significant overestimation of the total environmental dose rate, leading to an underestimation of the calculated ESR age.     

大都市边缘住宅开发区土地价值提升动态评估——以广州市南村住宅开发区为例

大都市边缘区住宅开发是大多数开发商的可能选择。此类开发区的土地利用性质和利用强度、地域空间结构及地理景观等方面都与城市中心区有着根本的区别,其价值处于高度动态发展中,地价迅速提升成为必然。本文首先剖析大都市边缘住宅区土地价值提升的可能性,并探讨了该类型的小区土地价值提升的评价思路、方法、对象及其参评指标体系确定等问题,最后将评估方法应用于广州市南村开发区进行了实例研究。     

THE EFFECT OF PROPERTY TAX RATE DIFFERENTIALS ON SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS IN WISCONSIN, 1978–1989*

ABSTRACT. A pooled cross-section time-series approach is used to test the hypothesis that differences in property tax rates between and across regions exert an excise-tax impact on housing starts. Synthesizing the research regarding property tax incidence on housing markets and residential location with that of regional housing studies, an empirical model that allows for inter- and intraregional influences on housing starts is developed. Using county data from Wisconsin over a twelve-year span, I find that property tax rate differentials have a negative effect on the construction of single-family houses.     

BALANCED BUDGET MULTIPLIERS FOR SMALL OPEN REGIONS WITHIN A FEDERAL SYSTEM: EVIDENCE FROM THE SCOTTISH VARIABLE RATE OF INCOME TAX

This paper explores the impact on aggregate economic activity in a small, open region of an income tax funded expansion in public consumption that has no direct supply‐side effects. The conventional balanced budget multiplier produces an unambiguously positive macroeconomic stimulus, but the incorporation of negative competitiveness elements, through the operation of the local labor market, renders this positive outcome less certain. Simulation using a single‐region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland demonstrates that the creation of local amenity effects, and the extent to which these are incorporated into local wage bargaining, is central to the analysis.     

旅游发展中居民态度与社区问题研究--以江苏省无锡市(马山)太湖国家旅游度假区为例

旅游发展不可避免地会引发一些社区问题,这些社区问题与当地居民的社会经济生活密切相关,并直接或间接影响着当地居民对旅游发展所持的态度。该文以无锡市(马山)太湖国家旅游度假区为例,在详细的实地调查所得数据的基础上,运用SPSS(11.5)统计软件,衡量了马山居民对旅游发展的态度及对社区问题的重要性感知,并对两者之间的相关关系与可信度进行了分析。