Scaling‐Up,Scaling‐Down,and Scaling‐Out: Local Planning Strategies for Sea‐Level Rise in New South Wales,Australia

Globally, sea‐level rise is expected to impact on many coastal regions and settlements. While mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions remains an important task, adaptation is now seen as a critical component of the policy equation. Local government is a key player in adaptation planning and managing risk through their mandated role in land use planning and development control. Yet, managing the predicted impacts of climate change is proving to be a complex and difficult task for planners and policy makers. This paper reports on a case of local government deliberation on possible planning responses to address future sea‐level rise impacts in New South Wales, Australia. Using structured, expert opinion of planners and other technical experts engaged in a collaborative network in the Sydney region, we explore the feasibility of implementing planning and policy measures at the local and regional scales to respond to inundation risk as a result of sea‐level rise and storm surge events. Our research shows how local governments employ specific scale‐oriented strategies to engage private and public actors at different scales to manage legal, financial, and technical risks in coastal adaptation.     

Planning for Climate Change Adaptation in a Multi-level Context: The Gothenburg Metropolitan Area

Individual local governments are key players in Sweden's strategy for climate adaptation but their authority does not match the scale of climate change and its impacts. Competences are divided among local, regional and national authorities. Climate adaptation thus requires cooperation, particularly in metropolitan regions. This raises issues of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of adaptation measures recommended in local Master Plans. The focus here is on how the 13 municipalities in the Gothenburg Metropolitan Area—expected to be the part of Sweden most affected by impacts of climate change—address and act upon issues of climate change adaptation within the framework of Sweden's Planning and Building Act, which places responsibility for the “common interest” of climate adaptation with local governments. Analysing municipal Master Plans, as well as the comments on these plans from the regional County Administrative Board and from Göteborg Region Association of Local Authorities, the inter-municipal association charged with infrastructural planning, I identify patterns in terms of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of planning for climate change adaptation. Results are discussed in relation to propositions from recent research on planning for climate adaptation in multi-level contexts.     

“Sometimes Climate Adaptation is Politically Correct”: A Case Study of Planners and Politicians Negotiating Climate Adaptation in Waterfront Spatial Planning

Today, spatial planning is expected to deliver climate adaptation and to manage, merge and balance various societal interests and priorities. To what extent proactive shaping of change is enabled by spatial planning practice is less explored. This paper illustrates how the ideals and ambitions of climate adaptation are manifested in waterfront spatial planning via a case study of Norrköping, Sweden. Based on interviews with spatial planners and politicians responsible for strategic urban development planning, our study identifies a divergence in ambitions, approaches and positions. In local development plans, the position taken has less to do with climate risk severity than with an area's perceived political and economic attractiveness. When perceived attractiveness is low, precautionary climate adaptation serves as a pretext not to develop, whereas high perceived attractiveness leads to negotiated pragmatism allowing continued waterfront exploitation. We also identify a fragmentation in spatial planning, with weak interplay between municipal comprehensive planning and local development plans, resulting in ad hoc, case-by-case planning. Furthermore, different planning actors are organizationally compartmentalized, creating unfortunate intra-sectoral silos. We conclude that the integrative, proactive and reflexive potentials of spatial planning to deliver climate adaptation have yet to be realized.     

Development in Nunavik: How Regional and Local Initiatives Redefine Sustainable Development in Nunavik

ABSTRACT

For more than 50 years, the Inuit of Nunavik have been subjected to development plans devised in the south by the Government of Canada and Quebec that has a profound impact on Inuit people and their culture. The latest plan, known as Plan Nord, proposes sustainable development for the North based on the protection of 50 percent of the territory. However, the Inuit of Nunavik face many social challenges and this is reflected in the socioeconomic indicators of the region. In order to alleviate these social circumstances, numerous regional and local initiatives are attempting to establish programs better suited to the culture and needs of Nunavimmiut. Examples at the regional level include childcare and midwifery services supported by Quebec. At the local level, initiatives such as the Unaaq Men’s Association and the Innavik Project are making an effort to address local needs. In this paper, following a presentation of the Nunavik governance architecture, we will analyze how local (Unaaq, Innavik) and regional initiatives (Midwifery Program, Childcare, Preparation for Post-Secondary Education, Nunavik Parks) contribute to the sustainable development of Nunavik.     

快速城市化地区应对气候变化的城市规划探讨——以南京市为例

全球气候变化是人类历史上对文明生存的最大挑战。近年来,世界各国出现了几百年来历史上最极端的天气,它的出现与人类活动密不可分。为此,世界各国展开了包括行政手段和技术手段等在内的应对气候变化的方法,城市规划也是一个关注和讨论的重点领域。但是,目前这些方法仍旧延续了原有城市规划的原则和方法,现实指导作用较为有限。特别是对于快速城市化地区,如何通过调整规划原则和方法,编制能应对气候变化的城市或区域规划,仍是亟待探索和实践的问题。因此,本文就快速城市化地区如何应对气候变化提出了一系列的城市规划原则与方法,并将其深入落实在南京新一轮城市规划中。     

Developing Climate Adaptation: The Intersection of Climate Research and Development Programmes in Index Insurance

Using a case study from Ethiopia, this article examines the ways in which climate information and economic development interact in climate adaptation programmes. Microinsurance programmes have become very popular as an adaptation strategy but there has been little attention paid to the social, economic and political aspects of implementation. Examining one case in relation to the broader literature on climate adaptation projects suggests that greater attention needs to be paid to existing coping strategies, introduction of additional market risks, local capacity building and the socio‐political context of implementation. Climate change cannot be viewed as a technical problem only; it has a social dimension as well.     

Has it become warmer in Alberta? Mapping temperature changes for the period 1950–2010 across Alberta,Canada

When a Canada‐wide daily climate time series, covering the period 1950–2010, became available, an opportunity arose to analyze the time series for trends of a variety of temperature indices. The 6,833 climate grid cells covering Alberta, each with an area of 10 km by 10 km, allowed the detailed mapping of 30 temperature indices across the province. From each time series, an annual series was computed, which then enabled trend analyses using the non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall and Sen Slope tests. New maps could be created at an unprecedented spatial resolution, and an associated website was developed to access all trends and changes between 1950 and 2010 for all grid cells at albertaclimaterecords.com . The confidence levels of some temperature trends exceed 99%, while others are below 80%. In Alberta's south, annual average temperatures have increased by 1°C to 2°C since the 1950s, but in Alberta's north the increase is 2°C to 4°C. The growing season has lengthened by between one and five weeks since the 1950s, while the number of frost days has declined. The most significant trends observed were increases in mean annual and winter temperatures, and declines in the number of days below ?20°C and heating degree days.     

The impacts of spatial planning on the sustainable territorial development of the Rhine-Danube Trans-European Transport Corridor through Serbia

The Danube River is both the international waterway E-80 and the Rhine-Danube Core Network Corridor of nine European corridors in the trans-European transport network, and it is the core area of the most significant Danubian development axis in the Republic of Serbia. The present research focus of this paper is the integrated impact of spatial planning on achieving the sustainable territorial development of the Rhine-Danube Corridor through Serbia and its potential transboundary impact. Integrated assessment (environmental and social), based on the combined application of the standard strategic environmental assessment (SEA) method and the newly presented adapted strategic environmental assessment (ASEA) method, has made it possible to predict the effects of future activities on the sustainable territorial development of the waterway corridor, not only in Serbia, but also in other Danubian countries. The applied combination of the SEA and ASEA methods is presented in the form of key planning solutions in three selected sectors: international inland waterway, water management infrastructure and tourism. The results indicate that the negative impacts of potential conflicts between the planning solutions are far greater than the negative impacts of individual planning solutions, and that it is more difficult to control and mitigate or neutralize them.     

Archaeometric study of medieval pottery excavated at Stari (Old) Ras,Serbia

A combined study of a series of polychromatic and monochromatic glazed medieval pottery shards excavated from the archaeological area of Stari (Old) Ras in southern Serbia, including petrographic and chemical analysis, powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, allowed us to clearly distinguish between two groups of ceramics. Ras pottery, made of fine-grained well-cleaned clay and characterised by a rich mineral assemblage, was produced by firing in a temperature range between 800 and 900 °C. Reljina Gradina ceramics were produced at similar temperatures from materials which, with regard to mineralogical and chemical composition, show clear similarity with local clay, suggesting that these samples are of local origin and production. This work is the first systematic archaeometric study of medieval pottery excavated on the territory of Serbia.     

A Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Archaeological Sites to Climate Change: Theory,Development, and Application

Abstract

The predicted impacts of climate change on cultural heritage are likely to be dynamic and complex. Understanding the potential risks at site level is vital to ensure that appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures are put in place. There is, however, a dearth of tools and methodologies suitable for use by heritage managers. In this paper the potential of vulnerability analysis for site-based assessment is explored. A six-step vulnerability framework, adapted for cultural heritage, is illustrated utilizing material from two case-study sites (Brú na Bóinne and Skellig Michael). The implementation of each step in the proposed framework is demonstrated to aid those wishing to apply the method in practice. The ‘values based’ approach taken is suitable for a wide range of cultural heritage including landscapes, monuments, and buried archaeology. The six-step framework and the utilization of indicators provide a method that allows comparison between sites and yet is sufficiently flexible to account for localized concerns. The framework will aid decision makers with planning and prioritization.     

Climate change perceptions and responses in Scotland's ski industry

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt.     

Inter- and Transdisciplinary Research for Planning Climate Change Adaptation Responses: The Example of Santiago de Chile

Abstract

This article gives insights into an inter- and transdisciplinary research approach designed to enhance the planning of climate change adaptation responses at urban-regional level. What makes interdisciplinary approaches to adaptation action unique is its ability to unravel the complexity of climate change and the interwoven processes it entails. It is the planning aspect here that makes stakeholder involvement crucial. Hence in contemporary climate change research the science-policy interface takes centre stage, generating response capacity and exchanging ‘usable’ information with decision-makers within the framework of a transdisciplinary approach. Climate action plans and climate adaptation strategies, for example, have the potential to unite sectors and levels of decision-making around an integrated planning approach. This article discusses the challenges and constraints of the inter- and transdisciplinary research approach developed for a Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile (MRS).     

Thermal range of coastal tourism resort microclimates

With considerable evidence demonstrating the intrinsic importance of weather and climate for tourist decision-making, the projected redistribution of climatic resources as a result of climate change is anticipated to have important consequences for temporal and spatial patterns of tourism demand. Some of the world's leading coastal tourism destinations (Mediterranean and Caribbean) have been identified as becoming ‘too hot’ for tourism. However, the microclimates of coastal tourism areas have not been considered by such assessments. With a focus on thermo-physiologically relevant climatic parameters, this paper examines the adaptive range of microclimatic conditions available in two coastal resort settings in the Caribbean islands of Barbados and Tobago. Recorded weather parameters include air temperature, black globe temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The microclimatic results, which are presented using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), show that hourly thermal conditions can range up to 4 °C in different outdoor areas of the resort property (beach, garden, pool, cabana). This is salient in terms of characterizing tourism destinations for climate change assessments, as the results reveal that thermal conditions can vary at the micro-scale of a coastal resort, with the ability for tourists to attain thermally comfortable conditions within a single resort property. When a location becomes thermally uncomfortable (i.e. too hot), tourists can change their location (e.g. move from the pool to the beach), providing an onsite adaptive range between 1 °C and 4 °C. The results also demonstrate that thermo-physiologically relevant climatic parameters provide a more precise estimate of the available range of thermal comfort than is inferred from ambient temperature alone. The findings are discussed in the context of tourists’ climatic preferences and reveal that the microclimatic conditions recorded in this study (UTCI 29–36 °C) are well within tourists’ preferred thermal conditions and do not exceed tourists’ thermal thresholds for coastal tourism.     

Towards lower carbon cities: urban morphology contribution in climate change adaptation strategies

Non-urbanized areas (NUAs) play an important role in reducing the effects of climate change by providing both carbon storage and sequestration. Urban areas are responsible for the emission of 60% of global greenhouse gas, 50% of which are produced by buildings. During the past decades, increasing urban growth and sprawl processes produced several urban layouts characterized by different morphological features and a common lack of sustainable energy and environmental solutions. Investigating the relationship between urban morphology, energy demand and carbon emission/sequestration represents a relevant topic for urban planning practices implemented to face urban climate change effects. This study proposes a method for a transformability assessment aimed at investigating the transformation suitability of different urban morphology types. The case study is the metropolitan area of Catania (Italy), characterized by an impressive urban growth since the 1960s. The proposed method identification of limits and options for increasing sustainability of urban areas considering the contribution of both NUAs and built-up areas. This approach allows to identify appropriate planning tools for new layouts of urban fabrics while increasing the objectivity of the decision process. In the framework of climate change mitigation and adaptation, the outcomes of this research may lead to innovative urban planning practices.     

Compelled to Compete: Rendering Climate Change Vulnerability Investable

The imperative for vulnerable populations to adapt to greater environmental variability is increasing in lockstep with the onset of wide-ranging climate change impacts. However, while critical adaptation research emphasizes the necessity of addressing the underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change, mainstream approaches to adaptation stress economic growth as a prerequisite for climate responses. Accordingly, capital-intensive adaptation measures promote competitiveness to spur economic growth in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, where more than 18 million people face environmental hazards such as seawater intrusion, flood, drought and cyclones. This study evaluates competitiveness as a mandate for effective climate change adaptation. It finds that adaptation can advance either competition or vulnerability reduction, but it cannot logically or pragmatically pursue both.     

Perceptions of tourism impacts and community resilience to natural disasters

Evidence since at least the 1990s suggests that global climate patterns have undergone dramatic changes, often resulting in weather-induced natural disasters that have caused widespread environmental damage. Such conditions raise serious threats to communities that are dependent on natural resources and ecosystem services for tourism development. Communities located in high-risk disaster regions face greater challenges in developing a tourism economy that is both resilient and sustainable. Residents in these communities live with a constant awareness of external threats and try to build a degree of resilience that includes traditional disaster prevention measures and a long history of post-disaster reconstruction. It is necessary to understanding the relationships between tourism and community resilience to address planning and development goals in an era of increasing climate uncertainty.

Three communities are examined that are regularly exposed to the threats of typhoons and flooding and are located within National Scenic Areas in Taiwan. In-depth interviews with community leaders and surveys of residents were undertaken. Residents with high potential to experience natural disasters generally have high degrees of awareness of various forms of tourism impacts. Their perceptions of tourism impacts are positively correlated with community resilience. The strongest relationships are between a perception of the positive economic impacts from tourism and the local capacity for undertaking adaptive responses; and between an awareness of the environmental impacts of tourism and the perceived fragility of their environment. Empowering community resilience usually requires long-term capacity building and is correlated with all three types of perceived tourism impacts. Deconstruction of the special experiences of disaster-prone tourism destinations provides a more nuanced insight into the relationships between community knowledge and awareness of resilience needs and the role and impacts of tourism. This, in turn, facilitates understanding of community tourism development in the face of contemporary changes in weather and climate.     

The role of zoning in the strategic planning of protected areas: lessons learnt from EU countries and Serbia

This paper aims to highlight the problems and possibilities for improving the nature protection zoning of protected areas (PA) in spatial planning. It analyses and compares the systems of spatial planning and the legal basis for protecting nature in PAs in selected EU countries and Serbia. It investigates and compares the role of nature protection zoning and the practice of spatial planning for selected European countries. The case study of a national park in each of the selected countries is used to analyse the nature protection zoning and its role in the coordination of spatial planning for PAs and their surroundings. The initial hypothesis is tested and confirmed that, regardless of differences in the planning systems of the selected European countries, the models of nature protection zoning established for PAs are defining for the coordination of planning instruments in achieving the protection and sustainable development of PAs. The lessons learnt concern the identification of similarities and differences in approaches to nature protection zoning, and their relationship with the spatial planning for PAs in six European countries. Based on these lessons and existing research, recommendations are given for improving the legal basis for the nature protection zoning and spatial planning of PAs in Serbia.     

Dutch and Australian Planning Regimes: Are They Ready to Face Extreme Climate Impacts?

In this study, Dutch and Australian planning regimes are examined to determine whether they are ready to face climate extremes. Five different “cultural” facets of spatial planning determine the differences between the two regimes. These planning characteristics are first confronted with current climate change. The Dutch planning regime performs better under these conditions than the Australian. Secondly, a suite of spatial scenarios is confronted with both current change and a changed risk landscape, in which climate extremes are introduced. Again, the performance of planning characteristics to deal with these new vulnerabilities is tested. For type-1 impacts, exaggerating current change, a limited number of Dutch planning characteristics still hold, where the majority of Australian planning properties is likely to lose functionality. Under type-2 impacts, surprising climate events, the Dutch approach is no longer sufficient, while some Australian characteristics suddenly imply opportunities. The sectored planning approach, together with culturally determined individual responses, might prove to offer solace, under the condition that dealing with extreme events is made priority. Overall, current regimes face difficulties in dealing with surprising climate events and a fundamentally different planning approach is required. Swarm Planning, which dynamically deals with uncertainty, is proposed as a beneficial new planning method.     

Seasonal weather sensitivity,temperature thresholds,and climate change impacts for park visitation

Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.