A general equilibrium analysis of rural-urban migration under uncertainty

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes the implications of an exogenous shift in relative prices for an economy that suffers from urban unemployment, as well as uncertainty, in the agricultural sector. Among other things, we show that with agricultural uncertainty, an exogenous shift in relative prices will lower agricultural profit. This result is in sharp contrast with the conventional case of risk-neutrality or certainty where agricultural profit is unaffected by changes in the terms of trade.     

The Service Sector in the Chinese Economy: A Geographic Appraisal

A U.S.-based economic geographer and observer of China's economy examines the rapid expansion of the country's largely overlooked service sector, at both the national and regional levels. A particular focus of the author's research is on identifying regional variations in the development of services within the country and exploring some of the more important contributing factors. Based on the findings, the paper also discusses structural shifts that occurred in China's regional economies, disclosing inter alia that inequality in the contribution of services to GDP did not follow the same trajectory as that of employment in services. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L800, O180, P230. 6 figures, 4 tables, 82 references.     

生态系统服务对区域经济增长的影响研究——以黑龙江省为例

以净初级生产力作为生态系统服务的综合测量指标,在经典柯布道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,运用协整与误差修正模型对1986-2010年黑龙江省生态系统服务对区域经济增长的影响进行了分析,并评估了净初级生产力的边际价格。结果表明,黑龙江省生态系统服务对区域经济增长具有明显的促进作用,净初级生产力每提高1%促进真实GDP增长0.0257%;在生态系统服务的影响下,黑龙江省经济系统以每年1.8%的速率将系统波动产生的非均衡状态向长期均衡状态调整,说明生态系统服务在促进经济增长的同时也保障了经济体系的稳定运行;在误差修正模型基础上得到的黑龙江省净初级生产力的边际价格为255.1元/106kgC(以1952年价格为基准),此价格主要受净初级生产力产出弹性的影响。     

MEASURING CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO INTERREGIONAL AGRICULTURAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENTIALS: A JOINT PROFIT FORMULATION*

ABSTRACT Using Taylor series approximations of joint profit functions, a methodology is outlined to quantify interregional differentials in the Canadian agriculture sector by region and to quantify the contributing factors to regional labor productivity differences. These contributing factors are output price differentials–both crop and livestock, differentials in “land and buildings” capital deepening, “other” capital deepening, energy prices, other material prices, and efficiency. The joint profit formulation permits the analysis of effects of regional specific output price and output mix differentials.     

A NEOCLASSICAL ANATOMY OF THE ECONOMIC BASE MULTIPLIER*

ABSTRACT Keynesian export base theory ignores the supply side of the economy, while trade models may overemphasize resource constraints. A general equilibrium model which stakes out a position between those extremes is developed and used to define rigorously the components of an economic base (EB) multiplier. Capital moves freely in and out of the regional economy, but the factor land is fixed. Interregional labor movements are caused by wage differentials. Factor and relative commodity prices are determined endogenously. Demand and supply sides of a small regional economy are included. The relationship between average and marginal EB multipliers, and between key parameters (regional size, several elasticities, etc.) and the marginal multiplier are discussed. The Keynesian constant EB multiplier can be derived from a special case of the model.     

‘IT'S ALL A QUESTION OF BUSINESS’: INVESTMENT IDENTITIES,NETWORKS AND DECISION‐MAKING IN THE CLEANTECH ECONOMY

Cleantech has emerged in the last decade as a major new investment sector at the forefront of the green economy. It responds to the need for innovative technologies to combat the impact of global environmental, climate and resource trends. Focusing on the cleantech sector, this article explores the central importance of relationality within the financial domain of the green economy. The central aim of this article is to deepen understandings of the operation of cleantech investment by examining the decision‐making processes of cleantech actors, how these are influenced by (and influence) cleantech investment networks, and the relationships between these factors and the macro‐level drivers and discourses focused on the cleantech sector. A relational economic geography approach is used in conjunction with other frameworks (spanning the cultural, structural and actor‐network dimensions of cleantech investment) to investigate: how cleantech investors define the sector; the macro‐ and micro‐level drivers of cleantech investment; and how cleantech networks form and operate to create and disseminate cleantech discourses and to generate the mutual trust and information sharing needed to secure cleantech investments. In so doing, the article seeks to shed greater light on the micro‐level processes contributing to the creation and growth of cleantech investment markets as an essential catalyst and component of the green economy.     

国际油价波动对日本经济均衡的影响

2005年以来,国际原油价格剧烈震荡,除实体经济层面的供求因素外,能源作为金融商品的虚拟经济属性被放大,预期、投机、突发事件、汇率波动因素等都可能成为引燃油价波动的导火索。新的油价变动特点,使日本更加难以保持经济的内外均衡。从内部看,企业、行业间的收入分配效应分散了油价上涨的通货膨胀效果,具有技术垄断优势、善于利用金融工具避险及有效采取能源分散化和节能措施的企业与行业受油价波动的冲击更小。从外部看,进口成本增加和出口成本转嫁不完全引起了日本贸易条件恶化;石油美元通过贸易渠道和资本渠道的回流,对日本的国际收支产生一定影响;日元升值因素一定程度上缓和了高油价的冲击。日本政府、企业、居民的不懈努力创造了日本经济超低能耗的奇迹,这个奇迹将日本抵御油价波动的能力变成现实。．     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY WITH A FINANCIAL SECTOR–PART I: AN ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK WITH BUDGET AND BALANCE SHEET LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. An accounting framework is presented that can be used as a basis for a regional general equilibrium economic model that meaningfully incorporates both real and financial activity. The accounting framework describes a circular flow from regional income to credit base, and back to regional income, including the balance of payments identity. Both real market transactions and capital stock changes are explicitly recognized. Linkages between real activity flows and sectoral balance sheets are highlighted. Financial activity is recognized as a service, and all assets are assumed to be valued at market prices.     

‘Milking The Elephant’: Financial Markets as Real Markets in Kenya

Financial liberalization policies in the 1990s were intended to raise formal sector interest rates, enhance competition and expand access for users. This article investigates patterns of provision and use in a local financial market in Karatina, Kenya, at the end of the 1990s after a period of financial and economic liberalization. It takes a holistic approach, examining both formal and informal financial arrangements and microfinance interventions. This is because the role of the informal financial sector is particularly important for poor people and has received relatively little attention in the discussion of the consequences of reform. The author does this using a ‘real’ markets approach that sees markets as socially regulated and structured. Significant provision by the mutual sector (formal and informal), and poor lending performance by the banking sector is explained through an examination of the characteristics of the services on offer and their embeddedness in social relations, culture and politics.     

金融集聚研究进展与展望

金融业集聚属于服务业集聚范畴,既与制造业集聚有共性,又有其独特性。金融集聚的研究主要依托于区位理论、集群理论和金融地理学。区位理论是金融集聚的理论基础,集群理论为金融集聚提供了研究范式,金融地理学的发展为金融集聚研究带来新的动向。金融集聚的现有研究内容主要集中于对集聚的动因、类型、效应、模式的探讨,以及金融中心的构建等几个方面。随着全球化、信息化对金融业的发展布局影响越来越大,未来应重点加强对金融分支行业和微观区域方面的研究。     

Information without frontiers: Financial services,EC regulation and European cities

Using Castells' notion of the informational mode of development, this briefing investigates the changing hierarchy and function of European cities in the light of EC policies. The EC regulatory regime is identified as an integral part of the informational mode of development, setting the parameters within which the corporate sector operates. It is argued that the purpose of information flows is mainly control. A new constellation of European cities is anticipated which depends to a large extent upon the degree to which cities, competing against one another, are able to establish central urban complexes. These are based on the agglomeration economies between corporate headquarters, financial institutions and producer services at the urban level, and information flows at a global level of communications. Among the vast array of EC policies the paper identifies those in support of innovation and telecommunications, the deregulation of financial services, and regional policy as crucial for urban development. Given the requirements of infrastructure, institutions, professional skills and regulatory competence, existing metropolitan centres will capitalize on their comparative advantage and attempt to build on these in the future. These developments are likely to foster further concentration of capital and investment in a few major centres, thus counteracting other EC policies of regional equalization and harmonization. It is argued that these and other contradictions are an amplification of those already afflicting the capitalist state at both national and local levels. The paper also offers an opportunity to reassess aspects of traditional location theory, in particular central place models, in the light of these developments and finds them wanting. The same conclusion is reached regarding the cost‐benefit calculus of the Cecchini Report.     

我国生产性服务业与经济发展关系研究

本文首先通过阐述我国经济结构的变化和目前生产性服务业的地位特征,分析我国生产性服务业发展与经济结构变化及经济发展水平的特征及关系,从而预测我国生产性服务业的发展潜力。然后针对我国经济发达地区,探讨生产性服务业对区域发展的作用。再以广州市为例,分析生产性服务业在城市发展中的地位及对区域的影响。试图从全国、区域以及城市三个层次对生产性服务业与经济发展关系进行研究。     

The Role of Economic Sectors in the Formation of Regional Production Complexes

A variety of approaches used in Soviet economic geography to define and measure the productive specialization of an economic region are reviewed. In the author's view, a regional activity qualifies as regional specialization if it helps shape the basic character of the regional economy. It is not sufficient for a regional activity merely to represent a major portion of a particular national sector of the economy. For example, the asbestos industry in the Urals represents the major portion of Soviet asbestos output, but asbestos does not shape the basic character of the Urals economy and is therefore not a principal specialization sector. Regional specialization derives from relationships among the various sectors of the regional economy, not from the significance of any particular commodity. A classification of economic sectors is proposed as an aid in analyzing the functioning of a regional economy: (1) the principal specialization sectors; (2) basic raw-material sectors; (3) associated sectors using the wastes and by-products of the principal sectors; (4) complementary specialization sectors, such as asbestos in the Urals; (5) auxiliary sectors, such as metallurgical fluxes for the iron and steel industry; (6) service sectors, including utilities, transportation, construction, trade; (7) local sectors, working for local consumption.     

What is Waste that We Should Account for it? A Look Inside Queensland's Ecological Rucksack

While most Australians are conscious of the amount of waste that they place in garbage bins, relatively few would be aware of the waste that is generated in the course of producing the goods and services that they consume. This ‘embodied waste’ makes up a large part of the ‘ecological rucksack’ of those goods and services. This study develops a waste account for Queensland, using the ecological rucksack framework to illustrate patterns of waste production in the Australian economy. It classifies wastes both by type and broad sector of production. The study finds that the Queensland economy generated more than four billion tonnes of waste during the 2006–2007 financial year. The largest waste streams are produced at the resource extraction and distribution stages, and are predominantly materials that are disposed of without being used or are lost through inefficient use. The majority of the waste is produced upstream of the point of consumption and a large part is associated with materials produced for export.     

Stabilizing neoliberalism in Bolivia: popular participation and privatization

Neoliberal theorists and development practitioners contend that economic liberalization and privatization lead to increased private sector productivity and decentralization accompanied by administrative reforms lead to greater democracy, more efficient public sector investment, and faster local development. Examination of the Bolivian case, which has been promoted as a global model for neoliberal restructuring, presents a different picture. There, economic restructuring and privatization have led to a decline in government revenues and a continuing economic crisis. Privatization of public services has led to rate hikes, which, in turn, have generated massive social protests. Political restructuring through decentralization has as often resulted in the entrenchment of local elites as in increases in truly democratic control of resources and social investments. This economic and political restructuring has also served to territorialize opposition to privatization and neoliberal economic policies and, in some areas, reinforce regional social movements. When examined together, it becomes clear how economic and administrative restructuring has sought to provide transnational firms both access to Bolivian natural resources as well as the social stability necessary in which to operate. As privatization through the Law of Capitalization further opened the country’s borders to global capital, the decentralization program through the Law of Popular Participation served to focus the attention of popular movements from national to local arenas. While foreign investment has increased, the lack of benefits for the majority of the country has led to mounting regional social protests in the face of reduced government spending on social programs and increased prices for basic services.     

闽台经济发展动能测算比较

福建作为我国海峡西岸经济区的主体,经济发展备受瞩目。闽台隔海相望,在气候、地形等自然背景和经济、文化等人文背景上具有一定的相似性。这使得台湾工业化过程的发展政策和经验能够为福建当前和未来的产业结构发展提供借鉴。本文类比物体动能,对不同工业化时期的闽台经济、三次产业和制造业发展动能进行测算比较,并结合闽台不同时期的政策进行分析,得出结论:(1)福建经济发展动能起点高、增长快。(2)目前福建第二产业明显领先第三产业,产业结构优化升级速度快。(3)闽台在经济发展重点的变化上具有一定程度的相似性且当前重点行业具有一定互补性。福建可利用闽台区域条件互补优势,借鉴台湾发展政策,制定工业化中后期产业发展政策。     

China’s services sector: the new engine of economic growth

This paper presents a review of services sector development in China. It is found that China’s services have recently emerged as the dominant contributor to economic growth and job creation. Trade in services has also increased dramatically, although China maintains a huge deficit. In comparison with economies at a similar stage of development, however, China’s services sector is lagging behind. Both GDP and employment shares of the services sector are relatively small. Services trade also accounts for a relatively small share of China’s total trade. In particular, China’s new services are underdeveloped. As per capita income rises and resultant urbanization accelerates, the country’s services sector is expected to expand further and hence play a key role in rebalancing China’s economy away from its over-reliance on manufacturing and exporting. To reach this goal, further reforms and prudent government policies are needed.     

The role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions

The paper studies the role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions. Particularly, employing a nonparametric analysis, the paper demonstrates that historical adjustments of EU regions materialized by productivity improvements, primarily in the manufacturing sector and incidentally in the sectors of construction, financial and non-market services, during the period 1995–2008 secured high(er) levels of regional resilience during the economic crisis period 2008–2013. Such a finding provides implications not only for theory but also for policy. Policies aiming at boosting regional productivity and competitiveness, which through a positive regional performance of high growth rates is concealed, a well-structured and robust production restructuring, might affect regional resilience in a way that shields regional economies not only from current imbalances but also from any future downturns.     

RISK AND INCOME TRADEOFFS IN REGIONAL POLICY: A PORTFOLIO THEORETIC APPROACH*

ABSTRACT. Policy makers often try to raise a region's income by altering its industrial mix. However, such attempts to increase local income may have an adverse effect on the stability of the region's economy. In this paper, we develop single-, aggregate-, and multiregional portfolio models that can be used by policy makers to generate frontiers of risk/income-efficient industrial mixtures for a regional economy. These portfolio models are modified for application to the tourist industry in six regions of Spain. In practice, we find that the introduction of bounds on the magnitude of sector rebalancing has a major effect on the model solutions.     

Regional innovation systems and the foundation of knowledge intensive business services. A comparative study in Bremen,Munich, and Stuttgart,Germany

Knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) are believed to be one of the main drivers of technological change, innovation, and economic progress. Although firm foundations play a crucial role among KIBS, entrepreneurship research has hardly ever investigated the sector. As firm founders in early stages of their firms' development mostly draw on regional resources, and as the provision of the services is an interactive process, “proximity” between the different actors of the particular territorial innovation and production system clearly matters. This contribution analyses the interrelationships between KIBS foundations and their respective innovation and production systems by performing qualitative and conceptual in-depth studies of three German metropolitan regions.