Anomalies in Red and Blue II: Towards an understanding of the roles of setting, values, and demography in the 2004 and 2008 U.S. presidential elections

Counties identified as anomalous in the 2004 US presidential election - large metropolitan counties and majority-minority counties that voted Republican and non and small-metropolitan counties that voted Democratic, are the subject of a qualitative analysis to assess why they were exceptions to the conventional wisdom of a Red and Blue America polarized along metropolitan-non-metropolitan and modern versus traditional dimensions. Contacts with professional colleagues, and with media and partisan representatives, and visits to selected counties provided valuable insights and helped us to assess the extent to which the county votes in 2008 reinforced or changed the broad Red and Blue dimensions derived from 2000 to 2004.     

School quality and rural in-migration: Can better rural schools attract new residents?

Studies in the nonmetropolitan population change literature have largely focused on the role of natural amenities and economic restructuring, but few have focused on the role of public services. This paper addresses the question of whether public services in nonmetropolitan counties, specifically the outcomes of public schools, could attract migrants. We use a Poisson regression technique little-used in the migration literature to control for push and pull factors driving migration patterns and control for school quality. Results show that better schools can draw migrants to nonmetropolitan areas. Marginal effects are larger for nonmetropolitan counties not adjacent to metropolitan areas.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES*

ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single‐purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general‐purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.     

The Causes of Regional Variations in U.S. Poverty: A Cross-County Analysis

The persistence of poverty in the modern American economy, with rates of poverty in some areas approaching those of less advanced economies, remains a central concern among policy makers. Therefore, in this study we use U.S. county-level data to explore potential explanations for the observed regional variation in the rates of poverty. The use of counties allows examination of both nonmetropolitan area and metropolitan area poverty. Factors considered include those that relate to both area economic performance and area demographic composition. Specific county economic factors examined include economic growth, industry restructuring, and labor market skills mismatches.     

Partisan sorting in the United States, 1972–2012: New evidence from a dynamic analysis

Whether Americans have “sorted” into politically like-minded counties and to what extent is hotly debated by academic and journalists. This paper examines whether or not geographic sorting has occurred and why it has occurred using a novel, dynamic analysis. Our findings indicate that geographic sorting is on the rise, but that it is a very recent phenomenon. In the 1970s and 1980s, counties tended to become more competitive, but by 1996 a pattern of partisan sorting had emerged and continued through the present. Results suggest this pattern is driven by Southern re-alignment and voting behavior in partisan stronghold counties. Lastly, we find evidence that migration can drive partisan sorting, but only accounts for a small portion of the change.     

Are Spells of Unemployment Longer in Nonmetropolitan Areas? Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence

I use nonparametric and semiparametric proportional hazard models to examine whether individuals resident in nonmetropolitan areas experience lower per period rates of exit from unemployment following job loss than metropolitan area residents. Results show that between 1989 and 1993 per period cumulative rates of exit from unemployment were slightly higher in nonmetropolitan areas, mainly due to nonmetropolitan–metropolitan differences in individual characteristics and local economic conditions. Employment density is found to have a positive association with rates of exit of unemployment in metropolitan areas but not in nonmetropolitan areas.     

SPREAD AND BACKWASH EFFECTS FOR NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES IN THE U.S.

Few studies empirically estimate the effects of metropolitan growth on nonmetropolitan communities at a national scale. This paper estimates the growth effects of 276 MSAs on population in 1,988 nonmetropolitan communities in the United States from 2000 to 2007. We estimate the distance for growth spillovers from MSAs to nonmetropolitan communities and test the assumption that a single MSA influences growth. We compare three methods of weighting cities’ influence: nearest city only, inverse‐distance, and relative commuting flow to multiple cities. We find the inverse‐distance approach provides slightly more reliable and theoretically supportable results than the traditional nearest city approach.     

A NOTE ON THE DIFFERENTIAL REGIONAL EFFECTS OF INCOME INEQUALITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING U.S. COUNTY‐LEVEL DATA

This note examines the correlation between income inequality and economic growth using a panel of income distribution data for 3,109 counties of the U.S. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, we find that for the entire sample of 3,109 counties, an increase in a county's level of inequality has a significant negative relationship with future economic growth. In reality, however, the magnitude, sign, and significance of this relationship is not necessarily uniform across all regions of the U.S., motivating the need to examine regional differentials in the relationship between inequality and growth. Consequently, we split our dataset into metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties, into the eight Bureau of Economic Analysis regions, and into regions of different political affiliation and economic‐dependence typology. Our results show considerable heterogeneity in the relationship between inequality and growth across these regions.     

Partisan gerrymandering and population instability: Completing the redistricting puzzle

How can partisan mapmakers enact a partisan gerrymander in the presence of risk-averse co-partisan incumbents who wish to keep most of their constituencies intact? Until now the literature on redistricting has focused on how redistricting affects the geography of partisan support, that is, the underlying partisan balance of electoral districts. We posit that this emphasis on partisanship misses half of the story. Partisan mapmakers have another tool at their disposal: the fostering of population instability that may not affect a district's partisan balance. By examining all redistricting plans enacted in 2001–2002, as well as three case studies, we show that partisan mapmakers strategically foster population instability, which poses problems for incumbents in a way that may not be apparent when looking exclusively at the effects of redistricting on partisanship. Our results show how partisan mapmakers simultaneously achieve two goals: enacting an “optimal gerrymander,” which strengthens some opposition-party incumbents, while inducing instability and reducing the personal vote of those same incumbents. We also show that so-called “neutral” redistricting plans are successful in disregarding incumbency. Finally, our results suggest another mechanism that explains why the 2002 congressional elections in the U.S. produced little competition.     

Post-socialist Sprawl: A Cross-Country Comparison

This paper presents a land-use change analysis of five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We utilize CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land-Cover and Urban Audit data for two distinct time periods: 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 aggregated at urban, suburban and non-metropolitan geographies. The literature on post-socialist cities suggests that urbanization rates and patterns in the post-socialist period are quite variable and divergent, both “inter”nationally and “intra”-nationally, and we expect to find both spatial and temporal differences. We compare and contrast urbanization patterns at the national scale, using cities and their functional urban regions as the unit of comparative analysis. Our results show that unlike other eastern European countries, metropolitan areas in the former German Democratic Republic began sprawling (defined as a decline in urban density) in the 1990s. Similar changes only became visible in other CEE countries later during the 2000s. We also demonstrate that larger cities which were better connected to the political elite and more economically integrated with global investment patterns experienced more extensive urban sprawl than their smaller and mid-sized counterparts.     

Employment Risk in U.S. Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Regions: the Influence of Industrial Specialization and Population Characteristics

Abstract.  A dynamic labor market model is used to motivate the inclusion of population characteristics and industrial structure as determinants of regional employment instability. We examine how these factors influence regional employment instability using data from both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in the United States. We find that population characteristics are important determinants of employment volatility and that increased industrial specialization (reduced diversification) increases employment volatility, but the magnitude of that influence drops substantially once population characteristics are considered. We also find that the influence of population characteristics and industrial specialization varies significantly across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions.     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.     

Friends,neighbors, and sponsors in the 2016 French primary election. Revisiting a classical hypothesis from aggregated-level data

Using the concept of “friends and neighbors”, we attempt to answer a main question: Do candidates in a primary election perform best in territories where they benefit from many supporters among local representatives and partisan networks? Therefore, we collected a unique data set during the French right and center primary election of November 2016. For all candidates, in addition to their political career and the strength of their local anchorage, we considered the sponsorships they received from parliament members and local representatives. After fleshing out these data, we included it in a multivariate analysis of mobilization and votes in French departmental elections. Particularly, we distinguished local anchorage from the ability to mobilize partisan resources. Our results show that both phenomena have an important impact on primary outcomes.     

Voting technologies and residual ballots in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections

The accurate counting of ballots is essential for a functional democracy. In recent elections, particularly the exceedingly narrow presidential one in 2000, widespread concerns surfaced that votes were not being counted accurately. This paper examines major voting technologies, their advantages and disadvantages, and the significance of residual ballots (overvotes and undervotes) across U.S. counties in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004. In the 2000 election, 1.9 million ballots were voided, as were more than 2.3 million in 2004. The analysis explores three fundamental questions: (1) Do voting technologies tend to favor one political party over its rival? (2) Do voting technologies tend to favor one ethnic group over another? (3) Do voting technologies favor urban areas over rural ones? The empirical results consistently deny the existence of any of these biases at the national level, although the possibility of local bias remains an open question. The conclusion links these issues to the on-going debate about voting technology reform.     

Population Suburbanization in American Metropolitan Areas, 1940–1970

Using census tract data, this paper shows that massive changes have occurred in density patterns of American metropolitan areas since 1950. Suburbanization of population has involved both large-scale decongestion of central parts of metropolitan areas and also large-scale outward deconcentration. Many metropolitan areas no longer have clearly distinguishable density patterns in their central and peripheral parts. At the present time, patterns of population distribution across metropolitan areas are becoming increasingly similar. Furthermore, current suburbanization patterns by census tract do not relate strongly to suburbanization patterns as measured by growth rates of crude central city and suburban rings in metropolitan areas. Finally, the paper shows that “density craters” in the center of many metropolitan areas may become more pronounced, although they may not extend outward.     

From Partisan Universal to Concrete Universal? The Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement in Pakistan

This paper explores the question of universal-particular through the anti-war Pashtun Tahaffuz (Protection) Movement in Pakistan. With its demands couched in the language of pain, rights to life and “dignity”, the PTM mobilises popular Pashtun sentiments as a “partisan universal”: a political formulation which achieves the common good even as it attends to particular interests. However, within the re-formulated urban question in post-9/11 Pakistan, PTM also attempts to make common cause with other ethnic-spatial communities through shared—but situated and differentiated—experiences of dispossession. Thus, the PTM’s “dialectic of experience” is a partisan universal in search of a “concrete universal”: a non-totalising but encompassing and open universality, a universal politics which works through the particularity of specific groups’ experiences. It is in this terrain of political practice, and its attendant theoretical articulations, that we will find the—contingent and processual—resolution of the transition from particularity to universality.     

江西省县域经济差异特征及其成因分析

县域经济作为我国国民经济的基本单元,是构造地带经济、经济区、省区、城市等区域经济的基础。我国当前社会经济运行中的主要矛盾如城乡二元结构、区域差异扩大、"三农"问题都集中反映在县域尺度上。因此,对县域经济差异进行剖析,揭示差异形成的机理,对县域经济发展有重要意义。2000年以来,江西省县域绝对差异呈持续扩大趋势,相对差异呈相对稳定趋势,总体差异呈扩大趋势;县域经济在空间上表现为经济发达型、较发达型县市主要分布在中部地区、交通干线和长江沿线地区;欠发达型和不发达型县市呈不规则的环状分布于经济发达、较发达型县市的外围地区;从整体上来看,江西省各县市的发展水平呈现北高南低的分布格局;从县市数量上看,呈现出城市规模"金字塔"结构等特征。     

CENTRALIZATION AND URBAN SERVICES: THE AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE

The effect on the distribution of urban services of the “geographical fragmentation” of American metropolitan areas into many local government jurisdictions, each with important service responsibilities, is often overlooked. Comparison with Australia, where services are generally administered and financed at the State level, is instructive. Australian centralism tends to have an equalizing effect, largely due to bureaucratic patterns of service delivery, but has also produced both an insensitivity to specialized local factors and an “organizational fragmentation.” Developments in the 1970s suggest improvements in these areas of deficiency.     

Rising Inequality in an Era of Austerity: The Case of the US

US inequality has rapidly increased since the early 1970s. For advanced economies, inequality is linked to stronger incentives that enhance growth, education, innovation and entrepreneurship. However, the rise in US inequality is concentrated in the top 1%. Hence it is increasingly possible that economic rewards may be too uncertain to promote effort, suggesting the US has crossed a tipping point in which inequality reduces growth. Other costs include more social and political instability, making inequality the next potential “crisis” facing America. This study first examines trends in inequality and then reviews arguments that suggest that it is both good and bad for growth in America's cities. We then provide evidence that there has been a reversal in the effects of inequality after 2000 with it now being associated with less income and job growth in US metropolitan areas. We conclude by arguing that no general solution is possible without significant political reforms that equalize political influence.     

Framing the High North: Public Discourses in Norway after 2000

Abstract

The article presents an overview of the main public debates in Norway that can be said to have framed and defined the High North since the turn of the Millennium. It is based on a qualitative study of over 3000 articles published in four Norwegian newspapers issued between 2000 and 2006. Our discussion is structured around three overarching, interconnected narratives that we think capture the essence of the Norwegian public discourses on the High North between 2000 and 2006. These are “Fragments from the 1990s”; “The great narrative of the High North”; and “Mixing cold water with hot blood”. The first half of the 2000s is characterised by an almost total absence of the High North as a discursive and politically coherent concept. From 2004, however, usage grew fivefold, alongside an extensive, dynamic discursive mobilisation. When the Russians decided in 2006 to shelve the Shtokman project and critical voices were heard condemning Norway's environmental performance in northwest Russia, public opinion swung back again. A feeling of cold reality replaced the sense of optimism towards the energy potential of the north, and an exercise in collective soul-searching commenced – similar to that of the early years of the decade. We believe the type of discursive change we document in this article constitutes policy trends in connection both with the High North and with other sectors where policy is subject to intense public debate and appraisal. We hope that discourse analysis has enabled us to investigate and share how Norwegian public discourses on the High North are socially produced, framed and maintained but at the same time are always in flux and open to “new” directions which should be possible – at least in theory – to trace by going back in time.