A Review of “Presidential Leadership in Political Time: Reprise and Reappraisal”

Abstract

Existing scholarship on the electoral careers of U.S. Senate appointees has made progress toward identifying the determinants of appointee success and failure in the electoral arena. This study builds on these analyses by considering the universe of Senate appointees and examining each stage of the electoral process, including the decision to run. In addition, appointee personal characteristics, including gender and dynastic familial relationships, which have not been investigated in past work are examined here. The results demonstrate the centrality of personal attributes, specifically previous elective office and familial connections, to the electoral fate of appointees. These findings have implications for governors who make appointments, the role of family dynasties in elections, and the elements of incumbency that help to create electoral advantage.     

The 1983 change in surplus vote transfer procedures for the Australian senate and its consequences for the single transferable vote

Among the 1983 changes to the electoral rules for Australian Senate elections using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) was a new procedure for determining the transfer of vote surpluses. The adoption of this modified (‘inclusive’) Gregory method has tended to be overlooked in the literature, yet as this article shows—using both hypothetical and real-world examples—it incorporates an anomaly that could have significance for electoral outcomes. This has important implications not only with regard to whether the ‘correct’ candidate is elected, but also for wider social choice debates over the quasi-chaotic nature of STV.     

A Review of “Decision Points”

Abstract

A large body scholarship demonstrates that the population size of an electoral district affects elections in important ways, yet little is known about the implications of population size for campaigning and fundraising. I posit that the challenges of running a campaign in a populous electorate require candidates to focus their fundraising efforts on the wealthy. I analyze campaign finance records published by the Federal Election Commission during the 2006–2014 Senate elections and find that Senate candidates running in large states receive fewer donations per capita from in-state donors, but they tend to receive larger donations on average and more money from contributions of $1,500 and above. In sum, candidates running in populous states appear to rely upon comparably smaller pools of wealthy constituents writing larger checks to finance their campaigns. In the context of rising campaign costs, these findings suggest that constituency population growth may exacerbate representational inequalities between citizens and contribute to the growing influence of the wealthy in U.S. politics.     

Tempus Fugit,Incumbency Stays: Measuring the Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. Senate

This article evaluates the incumbency advantage in the U.S. Senate. We argue that existing methods utilized to measure this advantage are suboptimal to gauge the concept in the Senate. After testing and highlighting the weaknesses of some of these methods, we present an alternative way to measure the incumbency advantage based on the number of electoral victories or terms spent in office. We test the impact of this new measure on candidates’ reelection prospects and their vote share by analyzing senatorial elections from 1948 to 2008. We find that the share of the vote obtained by incumbents increases linearly with time spend in office.     

Multi‐member electorates and the development of Australian party politics

Australian political scientists have paid little attention to voting in multi‐member electorates apart from the working of Proportional Representation in Tasmania and the Senate. Yet the existence of such electorates and the methods of voting therein probably helped Labor parties gain their first representation in the colonial parliaments.

The strength of their organisations meant that those parties often fared well in the state‐wide electorates for the Senate after federation. From 1902 the prohibition of plumping in Senate elections fostered ticket voting. It not only introduced the first coercive element into the electoral system, but, by establishing a ‘winner‐take‐all’ method of voting, encouraged a two‐party system at federal level.     

E. J. Nanson,Social Choice and Electoral Reform

The most distinctive Australian contribution to institutional design is the construction of electoral systems. This paper locates the work of E. J. Nanson 1850-1936; Professor of Mathematics, University of Melbourne, 1875-1922 in its intellectual context. After setting out the puzzle of the frequent discoveries and disappearances of axiomatic social choice, and its awkward relationship with electoral reform, the paper explores Nanson's arguments in both social choice and electoral reform. The first were good; the second disappointingly weak. Nanson's failure to influence Australian institutional design at the foundation of the Commonwealth and the subsequent adoption of Nanson's recommendations for Senate elections are analysed.     

Shock troops: The emerging role of Senators in House of representatives campaigns

Since the 1949 introduction of proportional representation for the Senate there have only been two elections (1983 and 84) at which the ALP has gained more Senators in the chamber than the Coalition. The Coalition has held more seats than the ALP since 1987. The decline in Senate fortunes for the Labor Party has occurred despite (or, perhaps, because of) consecutive ALP Governments from 1972–75 and, more conspicuously, 1983–96. The professionalisation of politics through the 1980s and 1990s has dramatically changed the role major parties expect of their Senate teams. The Coalition and Labor Parties each use their Senators and Senatorial office resources as ‘shock troops’ in marginal seats, as well as points of constituency contact for electors in marginal seats or seats held by the opposition. Given that major party Senators are increasingly being used by the party machines as campaign tools, and are increasingly locating their offices and staffers in marginal seats, the numerical advantage the Coalition enjoys in the Senate is worthy of consideration. The additional campaign resources that Senators provide translates potentially into an electoral advantage in the House of Representatives for the Coalition. The Coalition's majority in the Senate may therefore be of as much interest outside the chamber as it is within it.     

Rational behaviour,economic conditions and the Australian country party, 1922–1937

This article analyses the electoral support of the candidates of the Australian Country Party at Commonwealth (Senate) elections between the First and Second World Wars. It differs markedly, in terms of its premises, method and conclusions, from ‘orthodox’ analyses of the party's electoral support. Orthodox analyses state implicitly that rational (ie. goal‐directed, income‐maximising) considerations do not underlie the behaviour of the supporters of the Country Party; in contrast, I state explicitly that these considerations do underlie this behaviour. Further, orthodox analyses do not collect the evidence or data which they require in order to corroborate their claims; in contrast, I do so. Finally, unlike the Orthodox analyses, I specify as clearly as possible the techniques which I utilise in order to confront my data and hypotheses. I conclude that the behaviour of the supporters of the Country Party between the First and Second Wars is consistent with the postulate of rational behaviour, and that it is inconsistent with the arguments of orthodox studies.     

Temp to Perm: Stacking the Electoral Deck Through U.S. Senate Appointments?

One concern with allowing governors to appoint replacements for U.S. Senate vacancies is that appointees may have an advantage over their competition in seeking election. Another is that governors may use their power to further their own political ambitions. This investigation explores whether an electoral benefit is conferred through receiving or making an appointment. The analysis provides insight into how gubernatorial appointments shape electoral outcomes for quasi-incumbents and the Senate's membership. Notably, the results reveal an electoral boost for representatives who are appointed prior to making a run for the Senate. Although the results demonstrate that some appointees gain an advantage by receiving appointments, governors who run for Senate do not experience an electoral benefit from making an appointment.     

Do reluctant voters vote less accurately? The effect of compulsory voting on party–voter congruence in Australia and Belgium

We know compulsory voting is associated with higher levels of electoral turnout. It has been suggested that this leads to a trade-off with the quality of the vote, i.e. the ideological congruence between voters and the party they vote for. In this study, this claim is investigated using data from the 2007, 2010, and 2013 elections in Australia. We also include a comparison with two recent elections in Belgium, another country with compulsory voting. The results show that reluctant voters vote less ideologically congruent, but that this effect is mediated by political knowledge and political interest. However, this does not lead to less ideologically congruent election results at the aggregate level and compulsory voting does not have an impact on electoral results. We speculate that in future studies, it is important to make a distinction between reluctant voters, and those who take a strong hostile stand on the electoral process.     

Surge and Decline: The Impact of Changes in Voter Turnout on the 2010 Senate Elections

Enthusiasm among Republican voters and a lack thereof among Democrats was cited by many post-election analyses as a contributing factor to the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections. Analysis of the aggregate county level voter turnout and results of the 2010 Senate races provides strong evidence of (1) a sharper decline in turnout from 2008 to 2010 in areas in which Barack Obama did well in 2008 and (2) a significant relationship between turnout changes from 2006–2010 and 2008–2010 and changes in the vote share of Democratic Senate candidates in 2010. In addition, a test of the referendum theory of midterm elections shows that declining presidential approval ratings, but not economic indicators, are predictive of the Democratic vote share in 2010. Despite previous findings that midterm and presidential electorates do not fundamentally differ, this analysis of the 2010 Senate elections provides evidence that differential turnout among core and peripheral voters is an important part of the explanation for the surge that occurs in presidential elections and the subsequent decline in voter participation during midterms.     

Electoral bias in Australia 1980–1993: The impact of the 1983 electoral amendments

This paper examines the amount and sources of electoral bias at federal elections in Australia from 1980 to 1993. The main conclusion reached is that the changes to electoral legislation introduced between the 1983 and 1984 elections did not, as has previously been widely accepted, merely act to neutralise the then‐existing bias towards the Liberal and National coalition parties but actually resulted in a bias towards the Australian Labor Party. Most of the bias arose from the differential geographic concentration of voters, to which a contributing influence was a ‘size effect’ caused by increasing the number of members of parliament However, the introduction of a boundary redistribution criterion which requires equality in electorate enrolments over time (rather than immediately) has also introduced an inbuilt bias arising from differential enrolment levels into the post‐1983 electoral system. This bias has favoured the ALP at every one of the four elections held under the new system.     

Managing midterm vacancies: institutional design and partisan strategy in the Australian parliament, 1901–2013

This article explores how replacement rules for midterm vacancies affect legislative turnover in the context of majoritarian and proportional electoral systems. The differing electoral rules and replacement procedures for the two chambers of the Australian parliament over more than a century permit an analysis of the complex interplay between institutional rules, party strategy, and patterns of representation between 1901 and 2013. Since 1901, the Australian House of Representatives has been committed to single member electoral systems and by-elections for filling midterm vacancies, but major changes to both the electoral system and midterm replacement rules for the Australian Senate have played a critical role in enhancing party control of Senate careers.     

Small Parties and the Senate Revisited: The Consequences of the Enlargement of the Senate in 1984

An intriguing feature of electoral systems is that apparently insignificant modifications of their constituent rules can have important consequences. One such potentially important change, following the increase in the size of the Senate in 1984, was the shift from five to six places for each state to be filled at each half Senate election. Attention has been drawn, most notably by Sharman \[1986. 'The Senate, Small Parties and the Balance of Power.' Politics 21(2): 20-3], to the capacity of this change to reduce the representation of small parties, with adverse consequences for the role of the Senate in national government. A decline in Labor's share of the vote and growth in support for minor parties are identified as the primary reasons why the predicted outcomes have not eventuated. The paper speculates about the possible future relevance of Sharman's argument.     

Race-based districting: does it help or hinder legislative representation?

This paper assesses the impact of using race-based districts on membership diversity of the US Congress and state legislative chambers as well as on electoral competition and voter participation in US Congressional and state legislative elections. In the 1990s membership diversity has increased in the US House of Representatives and state legislative chambers due to increased reliance on the use of race and ethnicity in drawing Congressional and legislative districts. But anecdotal evidence suggests that the creation of more homogeneous districts may lead to a decline in electoral competition, and thus a decline in voter participation in elections held within those districts. Uncompetitive Congressional or state legislative districts are posited to reduce the incentives for candidates or parties to mobilize voters and to restrict the electorate to habitual voters only. A lack of incentives to vote in district elections may diminish overall participation and have consequences in elections for statewide offices. I examine electoral competition and voter participation in recent Congressional and state legislative elections to determine whether electoral competition and voter participation have decreased, and whether that decrease can be linked to changes in the homogeneity of districts. I conclude by suggesting that bodies who adopt districting plans as well as those charged with a review of such plans take into account how line drawing affects electoral competition and voter participation as well as membership diversity.     

Issue Salience and Bill Introduction in the House and Senate

I propose that many if not most bills introduced in the House and Senate represent electoral position taking on the part of members. Thousands of bills are introduced every year, only a fraction of which are passed into law, much less seriously considered in the chamber. Moreover, bills are very good position-taking devices in that they can appear to voters to be a credible step in the electoral process. I search for electoral motivations by examining the content of the bills members introduce. For five different policy areas, and in both the House and the Senate, I find strong correlations between indicators of issue salience in members’ districts and the number of bills the member introduces within the policy area. In addition, in the House the relationship between salience and bill introduction is strongest among vulnerable members, although in the Senate vulnerability does not influence the relationship.     

Dilemmas in the Construction of a Socialist Law-based State in Vietnam: Electoral Integrity and Reform

Abstract

The Vietnamese party-state has been seeking to develop the concept of a socialist law-based state in an effort to provide a legal-rational justification for its rule. One of the key pillars in the construction of a socialist law-based state has been electoral governance. Unlike the popular understanding proliferated by the Western media about the meaning of elections in authoritarian countries, I argue that elections are of significance to the political life of the Vietnamese party-state even without pressure from any political opposition. This is because there is a growing need for the party-state to make the elections work more effectively to bolster its legitimacy. Along with the process of promoting the concept of a Vietnamese socialist law-based state, continuous reforms of the electoral integrity system have been considered and cautiously implemented. An important aspect of the reform is to ensure the values, purposes and duties for which power is entrusted to or held by electoral institutions are honoured. It is argued that the process of building a more integrated national system of rules and values has been set in motion but many setbacks have occurred from time to time, making it a dynamic process.     

Sources of electoral support for the Australian democrats in the house of representatives and Senate elections of 1990 and 1993: A comparative analysis

Election to the Australian Senate under proportional voting and statewide quotas gives to minor parties of the political centre a chance to win parliamentary representation otherwise denied them in the single member constituency‐based House of Representatives. Focusing on the Australian Democrats, vote splitting in the context of ? consistently higher levels of support for the Democrats in the upper house provides some evidence of differences among sources of electoral support between House and Senate, but within a context of general similarity of voter behaviour. Findings support a view that, as a party of ‘concerns’ rather than ideology, with a highly unstable support base, the future of the Democrats as other than a focus for protest must remain in doubt.     

The Representation of Small Parties and Independents in the Senate

Minor party and independent senators have played a critical role in supporting procedural changes which have given the Australian Senate the ability to play an independent role in the legislative process, and to scrutinise the executive branch effectively. This article examines how this situation has followed from the adoption of proportional representation (PR) for Senate elections since 1949. In looking at the evidence available in 1948, it is argued that the current symbiotic relationship between minor parties and the Senate could not have been foreseen. Whether intended or not, the adoption of PR and the representation of minor parties has done more to enhance the operation of parliamentary democracy in Australia than any institutional change since federation.