REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INSTABILITY*

ABSTRACT. National and regional employment patterns are subject to growth-instability tradeoffs. This paper applies the portfolio selection model to detailed employment data for the U.S. economy and selected states. Empirical results indicate that growth-instability trade-offs exist in a form not previously understood. The paper also identifies growth and stabilization potential by identifying stabilizing sectors.     

INDUSTRIAL CENTERS AND REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCAL INPUTS*

ABSTRACT. A large proportion of regional production takes place in nontraded goods and services. In addition, significant productivity increases can be observed in some segments of this sector. Starting from these two empirical observations we construct a model of growth in a two-region setting with factor mobility. The growth process is based on endogenous technological change in the nontraded input sector, whose output serves as an input in the production of one of the two final goods, the so-called industrial good. We consider two extreme cases, one with locally limited, the other with interregional knowledge spillovers. Conditions are established under which interior solutions with production of local inputs and steady-state growth in both regions result, and others under which we find a core-periphery pattern with growth concentrated in one region only. The stability of the equilibria is discussed by considering the transition processes. Finally, it is shown that catching-up as well as leapfrogging may occur, if new technologies become available.     

SPATIAL MOBILITY AND RETURNS TO EDUCATION: SOME EVIDENCE FROM A SAMPLE OF FRENCH YOUTH*

ABSTRACT This study re‐evaluates the returns to geographic mobility and to the level of education taking into account the interaction between these two variables, and using the distance covered as a proxy for migration costs. We have at our disposal an original French database that permits precise calculation of the distance between the place of education and the location of first employment. For men, we find decreasing returns to spatial mobility as the distance covered rises and increasing returns to mobility with higher levels of education. The marginal returns to spatial mobility for women are lower across the board.     

CASH TRANSFERS AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN CHILE*

ABSTRACT The headcount ratio in Chile has declined from 40 percent to 14 percent since 1987. However, most analysis of this reduction uses national and regional poverty statistics. In contrast, we employ poverty mapping methodologies to find heterogeneity in the effectiveness of transfers across counties. To better understand this variation, we explore the roles of characteristics of the local population, structural features of the county, and geography. The greatest reductions in poverty occur in rural households, yet population characteristics and geography are also important. These findings suggest that targeting at low levels of aggregation can deliver further reductions in poverty.     

COMPENSATION FOR COMMUTES IN THE LAND AND LABOR MARKETS: SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA*

ABSTRACT. Recent research suggests that in nonmonocentric cities compensation for commutes takes the form of both lower housing prices and higher wages. This paper develops a random utility model that predicts the probability of an actor choosing to commute between each residence and job in a metropolitan area conditional on the observed location of housing units and job sites. The model allows commuting time, origin-specific amenities, land prices, destination-specific amenities and wages to influence actors' choices. We estimate the model using maximum likelihood and generalized least squares techniques and data on commuting between each of 38 origin and 15 destination jurisdictions in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The empirical results show that, all else equal, a one percent increase in commuting time reduces the probability that a route (origin-destination combination) will be chosen by almost five percent. Origin-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into land prices and destination-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into wages. Desirable residential amenities include school quality and a low ratio of day to night population. Desirable workplace amenities include a large share of white collar jobs and a high density of employment.     

IMMIGRATION AND HOUSING BOOMS: EVIDENCE FROM SPAIN*

ABSTRACT We provide causal estimates of the effect of immigration on house prices and construction activity in Spain over the period 2000–2010. During this period Spain experienced spectacular swings in both immigration and the housing market. Our instrumental‐variables estimates suggest that between 2000 and 2010, immigration led to an average 1.5 percent annual increase in the working‐age population. This was responsible for an annual increase in housing prices of about 2 percent, and for a 1.2–1.5 percent increase in housing units. Overall, immigration was responsible for one quarter of the increase in prices and about half of the construction activity over the decade.     

DISTANCE FROM URBAN AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AND RURAL POVERTY*

ABSTRACT Despite strong national economic growth and significant poverty reduction during the late 1990s, high poverty persisted in remote rural areas. This study uses a geographical information system county database to examine the nexus between rural U.S. poverty and remoteness. We find that poverty rates increase with greater rural distances from successively larger metropolitan areas (MAs). We explain this outcome as arising from the attenuation of urban agglomeration effects at greater distances and incomplete commuting and migration responses to lower labor demand in rural areas. One implication is that remote areas may particularly experience greater reductions in poverty from place‐based economic development policies.     

VEHICLE ACCESS AND EXPOSURE TO NEIGHBORHOOD POVERTY: EVIDENCE FROM THE MOVING TO OPPORTUNITY PROGRAM

The geographic determinants of social and economic opportunity have received much scholarly attention. A missing link in this body of research is an emphasis on the range of factors influencing low‐income households’ exposure to neighborhood poverty over time. This paper examines the dynamics of exposure to neighborhood poverty for Moving to Opportunity (MTO) program participants. Our paper is unique in its emphasis on the role of vehicle access as it shapes exposure to neighborhood poverty. We find that vehicle access is an important factor shaping residential spells and transitions to low‐poverty neighborhoods over time. We also find that the combined influence of a geographically‐targeted residential mobility requirement and vehicle access substantially elevates a household's likelihood of accessing and staying in a low‐poverty neighborhood. These findings suggest that residential mobility programs and similar efforts to spatially deconcentrate poverty should pay particular attention to the transportation needs of low‐income households.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.