POPULATION DISPERSION VS. CONCENTRATION IN A TWO‐REGION MIGRATION MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS NATURAL AMENITIES*

ABSTRACT Contrary to the predictions of the basic spatial equilibrium model, the long‐run distribution of population across rural U.S. counties with high‐valued natural amenities has become relatively more concentrated versus dispersed. We provide an explanation by developing a two‐region model with mobile labor, production externalities and endogenous natural amenities. We find that strong preferences for natural amenities generally foster population dispersion. However, such preferences can also lead to population concentration when ecological degradation is low and man‐made capital is a relatively scarce input into natural amenity production. Investments that enhance natural amenities are found to reduce the divergence between the steady state and optimal outcomes.     

CONCENTRATION AND DISPERSION OF IMMIGRANTS IN SWEDEN, 1973–1992

Immigrants play a substantial role in the overall population redistribution in Sweden today. Due to the tendencies of immigrants to concentrate in the major metropolitan areas, a policy of dispersal has been implemented. The purpose of this article is to analyze the redistribution of immigrants within Sweden, using different-sized groups of people, who entered under different immigration policy regimes and with different reasons to immigrate. Our results indicate that the rate of deconcentration depends not only on the size of the groups and the time spent in the country, but also on the settlement policy practised at the time of arrival.
Les immigrants jouent à présent un rôle important dans la redistribution globale de la population en Suède. À cause de leurs tendances à se concentrer dans les principales régions urbaines, une politique visant à les disperser a été mise en oeuvre. Dans cet article on fait l'analyse de la redistribution des immigrants à l'intérieur de la Suède en examinant des groupes de taille variable, qui ont immigré dans différentes circonstances politiques et pour des raisons différentes. Nos résultats indiquent que la vitesse de déconcentration dépend de la taille du groupe et du temps passé dans le pays, ainsi que de la politique de localisation qui était en vigueur lorsque les immigrants sont arrivés.     

俄罗斯西伯利亚人口状况及其地理分析

西伯利亚人口问题一直非常尖锐,20世纪90年代以来更有不断恶化趋势。基于1989年和2002年俄罗斯人口普查资料,对西伯利亚人口状况及其动态变化进行了分析,得出了一些重要结论:1989-2002年间西伯利亚人口减少了95.9万,减少幅度达3.7%,远高于全俄1.5%的平均减幅;出生率降低、死亡率提高和人口大量迁移导致多数城市和区域人口持续减少,劳动力短缺问题日趋严重,制约了地区经济的发展;实现人口自然增长、调节人口迁移、引进合法移民乃西伯利亚人口和经济社会发展的当务之急。     

上海城市功能与人口郊区迁移的特征和影响分析

随着我国进入城市化发展高峰期,城市产业功能和人口的郊区化趋势日益显著,速度不断加快。在我国特有的城乡二元化管理体制下,郊区化过程中城市人口与产业功能的郊区迁移对城市结构转型以及郊区城市化具有怎样的影响仍需要进一步探讨分析。本文根据区县一级的城市建设与人口等相关统计数据,总结近十年来上海城市功能和人口郊区迁移过程中城市空间结构转型的主要特征,分析郊区化对郊区人口城市化、城镇建设与产业发展的影响作用,辨明其中存在的主要问题,并从城市功能布局合理化和促进郊区发展的角度出发提出对策建议。     

伊洛地区裴李岗至二里头文化时期复杂社会的演变——地理信息系统基础上的人口和农业可耕地分析

The Yiluo basin is the heartland of the origin of early states in China.Based on the archaeological data from the undergoing Yiluo Project,as well as theories and methods of population estimation,carrying capacity,and catchment productivity developed during the past decades in the West,this paper constructs a GIS based study detailing population fluctuation and development of social complexity in the surveyed region from the Peiligang to Erlitou period.The basic framework of this paper's study consists of t...     

CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.     

江苏省县域经济集聚和收敛的空间计量分析

通过探索性空间数据分析和空间计量分析方法,以实际人均GDP为测度指标,对江苏省65个县市的经济空间集聚、增长收敛性以及收敛机制进行讨论。研究发现1993-2009年实际人均GDP显示出越来越高的全局正相关,局部空间相关性也有增强的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明江苏省县域经济存在着β收敛,分时段研究为不同研究时段选择恰当的空间收敛模型后,收敛速度加快。技术扩散收敛机制和资本收敛机制分别在研究区间的前期和后期占主导作用,收敛机制的转变与江苏省在20世纪90年代末开始实行的区域协调发展政策密切相关。     

建国以来新疆人口时空动态变化特征及其成因分析

分析得出,建国以来,新疆人口年均增长率2.79%,明显高于全国平均水平1.54%,属于人口快速增长地区。各族人口增长率有很大的差距,汉族、回族和满族人口的年均增长率远高于全疆和全国同期的增长水平;维吾尔族、哈萨克族、柯尔克孜族、蒙古族、锡伯族、塔吉克族、乌孜别克族、达斡尔族人口的年均增长率,高于全国平均水平,而低于全疆平均水平;俄罗斯族和塔塔尔族人口逐年减少。新疆人口分布的空间变化规律总体分布趋势为西密东疏,北多南少;冲洪积扇缘绿洲地带多,盆地中心稀少。新疆人口密度明显增加,高值区的范围在不断扩大,低值区的范围在缩小。     

TERRITORIAL CONCENTRATION OF ECONOMY AND POPULATION IN THE EUROPEAN PART OF THE USSR (GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS,SPATIAL FORMS AND NATURE-CONSERVATION ISSUES)

A review article of Soviet research in the 1970s and early 1980s focuses on the factors that continue to make the European part of the USSR the leading macroregion of the Soviet Union. The review assumes particular timeliness under the new administration of Mikhail S. Gorbachev, whose spatial policies, such as intensification of the economy, recycling of resources, applications of science and technology, appear to favor continued development of the existing economic, science and technology potential of the European USSR. The article reviews the geographic factors that continue to keep the focus on the European part of the country, the spatial forms of economy and population that distinguish this development, and some of the environmental protection issues of such development. (The responsible editor of the article on the Soviet side is O. A. Kibal'chich of the Institute of Geography in Moscow.)     

POPULATION ANALYSIS ON THE MICROCOMPUTER: A SYSTEM OF SOFTWARE PACKAGES

This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes.