Enduring Rivals: Presidential Success and Support in the House of Representatives

We compare presidents' legislative support and success at the vote level of analysis. In so doing, we remind readers that these two outcomes measures, collected by Congressional Quarterly, Inc., may or may not reflect presidential agenda preferences. Success refers to a victory for the president on his vote positions, while support refers to margin of legislators taking the same position on the vote as the president. The vote level provides numerous characteristics of the legislation itself that serve as useful predictors of these two presidential position outcomes. These include its substantive nature, the stage of the vote on the floor, and the issue area of the vote. In addition to the characteristics of the votes themselves, we also incorporate presidential resources and environmental conditions. Virtually all of the component variables within these three concepts contribute to explaining presidents' legislative success and support in the House. We also find that, while models of overall House success and support perform similarly, controlling for party coalitional support dramatically alters the observed relationships. Therefore, without this further analysis, scholars risk misinterpreting the relationship between the president and Congress. Although we have not measured influence, we believe that these findings raise important implications for scholars of presidential-congressional relations and also suggest avenues for further research.     

Presidential Speeches Amid a More Centralized and Unified Congress

In his seminal work, Going Public, Samuel Kernell (1987 Kernell, Samuel. 1987. Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership. Washington, DC: CQ Press. [Google Scholar]) argued that changes in the congressional bargaining environment incentivized an increase in presidential speeches. Although subsequent research rejected that these changes increased speeches, Congress continues to evolve, having become more centralized and unified (by political party) since the 1970s. The purpose of this article is to revisit the changing congressional environment to assess what impact it has had on presidential speechmaking. We argue that if greater centralization and party unity are to affect speechmaking, they should decrease it, but only under unified government. We find that although congressional centralization, which should promote more bargaining between presidents and legislators, decreases speeches, the impact is not conditional on unified government. To this end, we conclude that the president's electoral not policy goals are the primary motivation for presidential speechmaking. These results have major implications for our theories of going public and our understanding of the public presidency.     

A Tale of Three Variables: Exploring the Impact of Alternative Measures of Presidential Approval On Congressional Voting

This study explores the impact of three distinct measures of public approval on congressional voting. Specifically, we test for the relative impact of a president's national approval, his partisan approval, and his district- (or state-) level approval on congressional support, measured at the level of individual members of Congress. Though we remain consistent with other arguments that hold presidential approval is likely to act as a background variable rather than a determinant of congressional voting, we maintain that theoretically more meaningful relationships between public opinion and congressional voting can be developed. Specifically, we argue that a more relevant test can be made which includes opinion measured closest to where that opinion is likely to matter to members, namely among electoral copartisans and district-level constituencies. We estimate various models (bivariate and integrated multivariate), and find strong support for our hypotheses that, to the extent members of Congress use public approval as a voting cue, they do in fact pay far more attention to partisan and constituency interests than they do to national opinion.     

Passing Nonincremental Policy: Presidential Influence in Congress,Kennedy to Carter

This article represents an important step in understanding early, modern presidents’ strategic use of signing statements by taking a sharp focus on the presidency of Dwight D. Eisenhower. In contrast to recent presidents who have used the instrument increasingly to challenge legislative provisions, Eisenhower's use of signing statements was rather complex—from political credit-claiming, explaining the provisions of bills to the American public, and reinforcing his views on the federal-state balance of power—to maintaining bipartisan relations on foreign policy, shaping implementation of congressional bills, and selectively criticizing Congress for overspending. The theoretical framework devotes particular attention to the interplay of contexts—electoral, institutional, and economic—on Eisenhower's use of signing statements by policy area across his two terms.     

Presidential Coequality: The Evolution of a Concept

The assertion that the presidency is coequal in power to the other branches in the American system of government is often heard, has been suggested by all recent presidents, and has even made its way into political science. But tracing the history of the concept demonstrates that this assertion is an invention of quite recent vintage. Those who wrote and favored the Constitution did not make such claims, nor did early presidents. Even Andrew Jackson's famous and, to his generation, shocking assertion of coequality coincident with his censure was not really a claim of equal power between branches. According to our systematic analysis of presidential rhetoric it was Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford who initiated and popularized the idea of interbranch coequality. They did so to defend themselves in two episodes of substantial presidential vulnerability: Watergate and the ensuing midterm elections. Subsequent presidents have elevated something that would have seemed wrong and absurd to any founder into a blithe truism. This belief harms governance by creating both artificially high expectations for the president and a presumption of institutional stasis. The “second constitution” based on popular beliefs about interbranch relations continues to evolve, as much a product of happenstance as of rational design.     

我国城镇化道路与"三农"问题的因果关系

我国的“三农”问题,是与我国的工业化道路以及与此相联系的城乡二元结构交织在一起,1978年以前,在城乡二元结构下,我国大中城市的发展从一开始就同农村问题的解决无关。这条城市化道路不仅没有带来农村经济的全面繁荣,还导致农村经济发展的滞缓,以及“三农”问题日趋尖锐。改革开放以来,我国政府提出的大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的城镇化道路,是同解决农村问题联系在一起的,是全面繁荣农村经济的重要环节。     

再论袁世凯与辛亥革命的成与败

1911年10月10日,武昌起义爆发。清政府重新启用袁世凯镇压革命党。袁世凯预判中国政治态势,周旋于革命派、清政府、立宪派等各派力量之间,一方面以北洋军的强势压迫革命党人;另一方面以革命党人的杀气威胁清政府,最后迫使清朝皇帝退位,促成了中华民国,实现了政治制度的转型,有利于中国社会的稳定和发展。但是,袁世凯本质上是一个封建官僚,缺乏民主共和思想,他不但没有积极推进民主进程,反而妄图坚持独裁专制,复辟帝制,又成了阻挡历史车轮的势力。结合清末民初的社会现实,对袁世凯的性格心理及其所作所为进行分析,有助于加深对于袁世凯本人以及这段历史的认识。     

《诗》、史互证:上博简《诗论》钩沉

《诗》、史互证是研究上古历史的重要途径,上博简为此提供了新的重要材料。上博简《诗论》“人之怨子”是对于《人之》一诗的评论。《左传》相关记载表明,此诗应当是为春秋后期人们比较熟知的齐国子尾、高强父子之事而作。在流传的过程中,此诗的大部分混入《瞻Mao》篇,小部分混入《小宛》篇。我们将这些内容析出整理后,可以基本看出《人之》一诗的原貌。《诗》中所佚篇章有些是其内容误入他诗因而失名的结果,上博简《诗论》所提到的《仲氏》、《人之》等就是比较典型的例子。     

有关国民党临时全国代表大会之研讨

抗日战争初期,中国国民党举行的一次临时全国代表大会,是国民党历史上一次非常重要的会议。对于这次会议过去虽有一些论作过论述,但尚有未尽意处。本拟就这次会议的一些关节点作进一步的研讨。     

Sounding Presidential: Frame Creation in the Obama Administration

Among the often-cited powers of the presidency is the power of the pulpit. Presidents attempt to influence Congress directly and indirectly through their rhetoric and its influence on national policy debates. This includes the power to shape debates through the use of frames. While much is known about framing, no past study has attempted to document all frames utilized by a policy entrepreneur in his attempt to shape the policy debate. Comprehensive understanding of frame creation is necessary to understand what frames persist and how frames are used in policymaking. This study identifies how one president, Barack Obama, framed domestic policy issues in speeches early in his administration. Identifying frames the president uses provides insights into this president's attempts to set the public agenda. The findings of this study suggest that Obama's use of specific frames is highly idiosyncratic, but that these idiosyncratic frames coalesce around identifiable policy areas, particularly macroeconomic policy. This study provides insight into how one president attempts to both frame and set his domestic policy agenda.     

谈地层学与形制学在考古学中的作用及相互关系

地层学与形制学是考古学的两种基本方法。本文对地层学和形制学的作用及相互关系 ,分别进行了论述 ,并得出两者在考古学中的功用 ,犹如车之两轮 ,鸟之两翼 ,缺一不可。只有在不断地实践中 ,运用好地层学与形制学的方法 ,才能建立起有中国特色的考古学体系。     

滇风黔雨铸金瓯:1920年非常国会迁滇及其活动述论

1920年7月,广州护法国会迁往昆明,谋求组织新的中华民国军政府,再举“护法”大旗.这是护法运动时期滇桂矛盾激化、护法军政府内部分裂的表现与发展,也是民国宪政发展史的组成部分,反映了云南在民初政治斗争中的地位和影响.非常国会在云南的活动,名不符实,受到多方面的批评与责难.     

Before the Honeymoon Ends: Presidential Leadership and Congressional Response

Academicians and journalists inevitably pass judgment on the progress of a president's major "honeymoon period" initiatives. Obviously, the success of those initiatives will depend on how Congress responds to new presidents. Data on aggregate congressional response to the "honeymoon" initiatives of the Carter and Reagan presidencies are presented in order to explore how members of Congress react as they evaluate and interact with a new president. Evidence suggests that, despite the conventional wisdom regarding Carter's limited political ability and inflexible nature, members of Congress were more inclined to emphasize organizational deficiencies. Conversely, while Reagan was perceived to be almost as inflexible as Carter, he received superlative marks for organizational efficiency and for providing access to Congress. The analysis then considers the importance of organization to future presidential effectiveness, and the importance of organizational concerns with respect to personal characteristics for overall presidential success.     

试论安福国会对巴黎和会的反应与应对

在巴黎和会开幕之前,安福国会最重要的反应是提出外交议案,内容涵盖和会筹备与中国外交目标。巴黎和会召开之后,国会关注的内容包括和会应对策略、对日外交与山东问题等。从方式来看,分为立法与行政监督两种形式。前者主要是指国会议员提出与和会外交有关的提议案、建议案,提交委员会与院会议决后咨送政府。后者则是通过质询权、弹劾权与查办权的行使,监督政府的外交活动。国会在巴黎和会期间的表现,除外来舆论压力因素之外,还与其维护派系与自身利益有关,突出表现为处理与政府的关系。从实际成效来看,国会的作用还是有限的,不过在制度形式上,其表现可以视为近代中国议会外交的初试。