NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

改革开放初期河北省高阳县社队企业转型和农村私营企业兴起的考察

20世纪70年代末80年代初,在国家政策扶持下,社队企业在集体所有制下实现了较快发展。农业实行包干到户之后,社队企业迅速转型,或直接转化为个体、私营企业,或实行了各种形式的责任制。社队企业转型与农村私营企业兴起之间有着密不可分的关联,前者成为后者的起点。社队企业向农村私营企业的转型为以后城镇中小型企业转型积累了宝贵的经验和教训。     

The political economy of maize production and poverty reduction in Zambia: analysis of the last 50 years

Poverty and food security are endemic issues in much of sub-Saharan Africa. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in the region remains a key Millennium Development Goal. Many African governments have pursued economic reforms and agricultural policy interventions in order to accelerate economic growth that reduces poverty faster. Agricultural policy regimes in Zambia in the last 50 years (1964–2008) are examined here to better understand their likely impact on food security and poverty, with an emphasis on the political economy of maize subsidy policies. The empirical work draws on secondary sources and an evaluation of farm household data from three villages in the Kasama District of Zambia from 1986/87 and 1992/93 to estimate a two-period econometric model to examine the impact on household welfare in a pre- and post-reform period. The analysis shows that past interventions had mixed effects on enhancing the production of food crops such as maize. While such reforms were politically popular, it did not necessarily translate into household-level productivity or welfare gains in the short term. The political economy of reforms needs to respond to the inherent diversity among the poor rural and urban households. The potential of agriculture to generate a more pro-poor growth process depends on the creation of new market opportunities that most benefit the rural poor. The state should encourage private sector investments for addressing infrastructure constraints to improve market access and accelerate more pro-poor growth through renewed investments in agriculture, rural infrastructure, gender inclusion, smarter subsidies and regional food trade. However, the financing of such investments poses significant challenges. There is a need to address impediments to the effective participation of public private investors to generate more effective poverty reduction and hunger eradication programmes. This article also explores the opportunities for new public–private investments through South–South cooperation and Asia-driven growth for reducing poverty in Zambia.     

Regional Differences in High and Technical School Demand in Melbourne, 1951–1985

Over half of all young people in Australian government schools do not complete secondary education and leave school without any formal qualification. This paper uses a regional framework to examine long-term trends in retention rates in different areas of Melbourne and concludes that in both older established and newly urbanized parts of the city the post-war transformation of government high schools into a mass system has failed to break down barriers based on social area. Marked regional differences were found in demand for high school, as well as a long downward trend during the 1970s (despite recession). Technical schools have displayed comparatively minor regional differences and retention rates grew during the 1970s. This suggests that the academic curriculum of high schools continues to be culturally selective. In addition to residential differentiation, important structural features, such as the relative over-supply of technical school places, were identified as contributing to regional trends.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

Youthful Creativity in Regional Australia: Panacea for Unemployment and Out‐Migration?

This paper addresses the theme of youth out‐migration from rural Australia, in the context of recent policy discussions about creativity and its role in regional development. Ethnographic fieldwork in one rural location – the New South Wales Far North Coast – is drawn upon to highlight how creative industries are being cast as a potential way of promoting cultural activities and jobs for young people, and in turn, how they might be imagined as a means to mitigate youth out‐migration. Yet, creative industries have contradictory employment and social outcomes. Creative industries are likely to generate higher rates of youth participation in economic activities than public data reveal. However, strategies for future job growth should also consider the limitations and instabilities of creative industry employment. Second, and more broadly, the paper discusses those socio‐cultural dimensions of nascent creative industries that may have a more substantial impact when conceived as part of strategies to stem youth exodus from rural areas. Creative activities may contribute to rural development in indirect ways, especially if linked to policy goals of increased tolerance of youth activities, better provision of cultural services, and improved well‐being for young people. While formal job‐creation may be limited, creative industries could mitigate some of the impacts of youth migration to cities by enriching regional social life and mediating perceptions of the advantages and drawbacks of rural versus urban life. This kind of policy imagination requires a shift in attitudes towards young people and a more genuine commitment to encourage young people to feel that they belong in non‐metropolitan areas.     

The role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions

The paper studies the role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions. Particularly, employing a nonparametric analysis, the paper demonstrates that historical adjustments of EU regions materialized by productivity improvements, primarily in the manufacturing sector and incidentally in the sectors of construction, financial and non-market services, during the period 1995–2008 secured high(er) levels of regional resilience during the economic crisis period 2008–2013. Such a finding provides implications not only for theory but also for policy. Policies aiming at boosting regional productivity and competitiveness, which through a positive regional performance of high growth rates is concealed, a well-structured and robust production restructuring, might affect regional resilience in a way that shields regional economies not only from current imbalances but also from any future downturns.     

What Can the State Do for You?

It has been suggested that Swedish policy during the early post-war period was strongly directed towards mobility-increasing expenditures – most notably relocation allowances – aimed at moving labour from north to south. While this view has dominated the academic discussion on labour market policy, there is little direct evidence. We make three claims. First, the relocation allowances have to be evaluated against the regional policy. Second, by doing so we show that the mobility-oriented policy was predominant only for a short period of time: in the early 1970s, there was a decisive shift towards a policy directed at stimulating employment in the north. Third, drawing on this, we revaluate the previous view on policy making in Sweden. Our analysis suggests that the Social Democratic government acted in a voter-maximizing way. The relocation allowances were introduced at the behest of the Trade Union Confederation (LO). The regional subsidies were expanded when voter sentiment turned against the perceived depletion of rural regions. However, this strategy interacted with the political and institutional environment. The new election law in 1970 and political competition from the Centre Party pushed the Social Democrats to shift their policies on regional subsidies.     

THE INCIDENCE AND REGULATION OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS*

This paper analyzes the proposed plant closing legislation, together with other complementary approaches to the orderly regulation of private capital disinvestment, especially as it occurs in the form of large-scale plant or store shutdowns. The authors also provide a review of the recent data on the incidence and employment impact of shutdowns during the 1970's, in particular industries, by region and by form of ownership.     

REGIONAL POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE USSR: 1979-84

This paper examines regional redistribution and population growth rate trends in the USSR from 1979 to 1984, and compares them to preceding intercensal trends for 1959-70 and 1970-79. Total and regional rates of population change for 1979-84 were generally lower than in preceding periods. The most pronounced regional shift continues to be toward rapidly growing Central Asia, which has surpassed the Center as the most populous Soviet region. However, Central Asia now has net out-migration, and the degree of shift to Central Asia was less than during 1970-79. Between 1979 and 1984 a noticeable northward and eastward shift occurred. In particular, there appeared to be a resurgence of Siberia. After two decades of decline, the share of the Soviet population residing in Siberia increased between 1979 and 1984. Another notable development was the slowing of the rate of rural population decline, especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone of European USSR and in Siberia. It is possible that policies to promote migration to Siberia and to stem rural depopulation may be having some effect. The shift to cities in general and large cities in particular, however, continues. (The author would like to thank Robert Lewis for his useful comments and Jane Rowland for her excellent typing).     

Regional Wage Inequality in China, 1996-2010

This paper examines regional wage inequality in China between 1996 to 2010, subdividing that time span into a period of increased wage inequality during 1996-2002 and one of stable to decreasing inequality for 2003-2010. Based on the interplay between wage levels and wage growth, the authors develop a typology whereby China's provinces can be assigned to either peripheral, emerging, lagging, or leading regions. The particular characteristics associated with each type of wage region, and the factors underlying shifts of particular provinces from one category to another between the two periods, enable them to identify specific causes for the reversal (after 2002) of the trend toward increasing wage inequality (the causes especially reflect wage patterns in the mining and energy industries, information and communication technology industries, and foreign-invested enterprises). The recent wage convergence involves instances of both interior provinces advancing from the "emerging" to the "leading" wage category as well as the decline of a few "leading" coastal provinces to "lagging" status.     

Innovation System Effects on Technological Adoption in a Regional Value Chain

This paper examines the technology adoption rates of a sample of enterprises that are nominally members of the transportation equipment value chain. We utilize the regional innovation system (RIS) concept to identify and test key regional and corporate influences on technology adoption. Using data collected from a detailed survey instrument, our analysis considers adoption rates during the very period in which production equipment technologies are known to have grown very suddenly, i.e. the fourth quarter of 1994. Our findings indicate that the most important RIS factors are related to worker training and information spillover effects between proximate firms. In the main, our findings are supportive of policies that work indirectly through the market structure of regional economies and a firm's value-chain, as opposed to directly through regional technology agencies.     

BOOK REVIEW

This article examines the transition from cultural industries to creative industries policies in the English regions between 1980 and 2010. It argues that audio-visual policy in this period is best understood as a trajectory: the gradual, differentiated, contested, but overall coherent development of a policy discourse and corresponding institutional structure. This trajectory can be mapped onto the wider political economy of the period: the transition from social-democratic reformism to neo-liberalism at the end of the 1970s and up to the present. This process has resulted in audio-visual policy being determined to a large degree by the perceived needs of commercial interests, up to the point where regional cultural policy is virtually indistinguishable from economic policy. The transition from cultural to creative industries reflects the development of the neo-liberal state in which cultural policy has been instrumentalised within the larger project of the privatisation of public assets and the shift of relative power from labour to capital.     

当代美国大都市区交通拥堵的治理措施

20世纪70年代以来,交通拥堵已经成为美国大都市区最严重的社会问题之一,因而受到各级政府和社会各界越来越多的关注。为了解决交通拥堵及其产生的社会危害,美国各级政府、民间团体和私人企业等采取了一系列措施,比如扩建公路、发展公共交通、推行共同乘车计划、建立高密度混合开发且公交友好的社区等。然而实施这些措施并没有有效地缓解交通拥堵问题,其根本症结在于汽车、公路和城市低密度蔓延这三者间的互动关系没有得到根本的改善。     

Manufacturing and Regional Economic Growth in Turkey: A Spatial Econometric View of Kaldor's Laws

In this paper, the regional economic growth process of Turkey during the period 1990–2000 is analysed within the context of Kaldor's laws. The validity of Kaldor's three growth laws is empirically tested by spatial econometric methods as well as traditional econometric method. The empirical results reported in this paper demonstrate the validity of the laws for Turkey over the period under discussion. In testing the first law, spatial dependence is detected. The presence of spatial dependence indicates that the growth of neighbouring regions (and indirectly, the growth of their manufacturing sectors) has an effect on the growth of a region. All the empirical findings suggest that manufacturing has a key role in regional economic growth.     

The Problems of Adjusting to Slow Growth in the Niagara Region of Ontario

During the 1970s it became clear that earlier forecasts of population increase and urban expansion in the Niagara region were too great. There has been a steady decline in the national birth rate since the 1950s and a decline locally in the rate of net in-migration. Moreover, a worsening economic climate, increasing development costs, and greater planning restrictions have led to a decline in the rate of land conversion from rural to urban uses. These changing circumstances afford an opportunity to plan for more compact urban areas and thus protect the area's valuable agricultural land. However, attempts to achieve these ends have been constantly frustrated by a regional and local planning process which has been loath to recognize such a conservationist cause or the need to plan for slower growth. In this report I will review three issues: the changing trends in future urban growth in the Niagara region; the regional plan and the designation of future urban areas; and the problems that have contributed to conflict and delay in approving that plan.     

农区产业集群、网络与中部崛起

我国中部六省地区由于多种原因在全国区域经济格局中已经成为了"经济增长速度的相对塌陷地区",实施"中部崛起"战略是学术界、中央和地方政府达成的共识。本文在分析中部地区存在问题的基础上提出,实施产业集群战略、创建本地企业网络是实现中部崛起的有效途径。发展农区产业集群可以提高集群企业和区域产业的竞争力,推动农村工业化和城镇化进程,促进县域经济的发展。而企业之间的网络联系是产业集群的本质特征,培育产业集群必须从创建企业网络入手。最后,本文对如何在中部农区培育产业集群、创建企业网络作了探讨。     

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. For many years, regional scientists, economists, and geographers have been unable to clarify the influence of economic diversity on unemployment and instability in regional economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article presents plausible theory, proper units of analysis, valid measures, and more inclusive models of the diversity-stability relationship. The findings are generalizable because the sample includes most metropolitan areas in the U.S. The empirical analysis estimates the influence of diversity, employment concentrated in unstable industries, population size, growth rate, and control variables on unemployment and employment instability during the 1972–88 period. The results indicate that metropolitan areas which are more diverse experience lower unemployment rates and less instability than areas which are less diverse.     

高新技术产业布局特征分析

影响高新技术产业布局的区位因子主要是知识、技术、资金和信息。地方政府对高新技术产业的扶持因素和对外开放条件对高新技术产业区位选择的影响越来越大。高新技术产业区位具有智力密集、良好的外部发展条件、对外开放度高和交通方便、生产和生活环境质量相对较高、位于大中城市等特征。高新技术产业布局存在着区域集聚与扩散两种过程。     

行业异质性与空间黏性：企业迁移成效的差异及其解释——以英德市产业转移园为例

企业迁移成效的差异是经济区位理论和区域发展政策关注的重要科学问题。区域产业转移实践往往呈现出多个行业的产业转移到相同区域的特征,以及产业转出地和转入地之间对不同行业的空间黏性存在差异,导致区域产业转移效果存在差异和理论解释的复杂性。基于此,本文从企业迁移的微观视角出发,以珠三角地区转移到粤北地区的产业转移园为例,通过行业投产数据的比较和空间盈利边界的理论演绎,分析区域不同行业产业转移效果的差异及其成因。研究表明,企业迁移成效存在行业异质性的差异,这是由于不同行业企业的对转出地的空间黏性大小不同造成的。空间黏性较小的企业比空间黏性较大的企业有更多的空间盈利。