让历史告知未来--评《漳州市志·漳台关系》卷

1999年12月,<漳州市志>出版发行.阅读<漳州市志>,令笔者印象最深的要属<漳台关系>卷,它使这部鸿篇巨著更能体现自己独特而又鲜明的个性.<漳台关系>卷位于全书5册中的第4册卷47,该卷分6章26节,计8.85万字,除了用一章记述对台工作的情况外,全卷用大量篇幅反映漳州与台湾之间在地理、历史、经济、文化、风俗、语言之间的渊源关系,展示了漳台之间地缘相近、血缘相关、文化相同、习俗相近、经济相关的密切关系,它不仅是漳台关系的历史记录,而且是一部台湾早期开发史.     

A History of the Future

Does history have to be only about the past? “History” refers to both a subject matter and a thought process. That thought process involves raising questions, marshalling evidence, discerning patterns in the evidence, writing narratives, and critiquing the narratives written by others. Whatever subject matter they study, all historians employ the thought process of historical thinking. What if historians were to extend the process of historical thinking into the subject matter domain of the future? Historians would breach one of our profession’s most rigid disciplinary barriers. Very few historians venture predictions about the future, and those who do are viewed with skepticism by the profession at large. On methodological grounds, most historians reject as either impractical, quixotic, hubristic, or dangerous any effort to examine the past as a way to make predictions about the future. However, where at one time thinking about the future did mean making a scientifically–based prediction, futurists today are just as likely to think in terms of scenarios. Where a prediction is a definitive statement about what will be, scenarios are heuristic narratives that explore alternative plausibilities of what might be. Scenario writers, like historians, understand that surprise, contingency, and deviations from the trend line are the rule, not the exception; among scenario writers, context matters. The thought process of the scenario method shares many features with historical thinking. With only minimal intellectual adjustment, then, most professionally trained historians possess the necessary skills to write methodologically rigorous “histories of the future.”     

我国城市化发展的历史、现状与未来

中华人民共和国成立以来,中国的城市化与其经济、社会发展一样,走过半个多世纪的艰难曲折的道路。从发展阶段来看,1978年改革开放为重要的“分水岭”,我国的城市化历程明显可以分为两个不同的历史阶段:1978年以前为城市化的徘徊起伏阶段,1978年以后为城市化的迅速推进阶段。我国城市化发展具有发展水平非典型性、地区发展不平衡、公共服务水平低的特点。实现城市化是新世纪中国经济社会发展的宏观目标和各级政府面临的重大使命。     

The History of Knowledge and the Future of Knowledge Societies

The new field of the history of knowledge is often presented as a mere expansion of the history of science. We argue that it has a greater ambition. The re‐definition of the historiographical domain of the history of knowledge urges us to ask new questions about the boundaries, hierarchies, and mutual constitution of different types of knowledge as well as the role and assessment of failure and ignorance in making knowledge. These issues have pertinence in the current climate where expertise is increasingly questioned and authority seems to lose its ground. Illustrated with examples from recent historiography of the sixteenth to twentieth centuries, we indicate some fruitful new avenues for research in the history of knowledge. Taken together, we hope that they will show that the history of knowledge could build the expertise required by the challenges of twenty‐first century knowledge societies, just like the history of science, throughout its development as a discipline in the twentieth century, responded to the demands posed by science and society.     

总结历史 开创未未

江泽民同志在十六大报告中,从中华民族伟大复兴的高度回顾了党的发展历程,指出:"在新民主主义革命时期,我们党团结和带领全国各族人民完成民族独立和人民解放的历史任务,为实现中华民族伟大复兴创造了前提.     

History of Psychology in China: Contributions,Challenges, and Future

The history of psychology makes three major contributions:(1) promoting the development of psychology in China;(2) establishing the history of Chinese psychology as an academic discipline;(3) playing an important role in training the next generation of Chinese psychologists.This effort faces numerous challenges,including the reduction in undergraduate teaching hours,declining enrolments at the postgraduate level,limited innovation in research,and a lack of financial support.These challenges stem largely from changes in the Chinese academic assessing system,the greater weight placed on experimental psychology,and a fewer opportunities for researchers.To address these concerns the history of psychology in China should make the history of Chinese psychology its research priority,while also presenting its findings to the public,and developing innovative teaching and research approaches.     

《近代史研究》三十年之路与未来走向

<近代史研究>杂志创刊于1979年10月,迄今已整整30年.它是中国社会科学院近代史研究所主办的专业学术刊物,国内外学者发表中国近代史研究成果的共同园地.30年来,它以发表坚持唯物主义、尊重辩证法、充分体现实事求是精神研究历史实例的成果为根本任务,不邀宠,不媚俗,努力走实践时代使命、坚持学术本位、维护良好学风、奖掖学术新秀的办刊之路.希望它未来一如既往,办成一个更加理性的学术刊物,团聚众多冷静研究和思考历史问题的学者为一个理性学派,为国家学术事业的健康、长远发展做出贡献.     

The Future of Utopia

The widespread notion that the city is secular and that therefore society’s future is secular is in need of serious reconsideration. This paper argues that religion does not melt away but rather morphs into modern forms of aspiration, speculation, and contention. Religion is therefore crucial to social inquiry into the nature of the urban. The paper argues that in Asia the Christian modern is close to the secular modern with fragments of rational planning and calculation in constant interplay with fragments of the magic of speculative modernity. Both communism and market capitalism are ideological cousins of Christian millenarianism. In a comparison of India, China, and Singapore it argues that the Christian form of modernity has been much better able to penetrate and coalesce with Sinic civilizational traditions than with Indic civilizational traditions.