Net Multipliers Avoid Exaggerating Impacts: With A Bi–Regional Illustration for the Dutch Transportation Sector

Industries often promote their interests by arguing that they have a big impact on the rest of the economy. This poses the question of how to measure the importance of an activity. To answer this, the literature often uses (regional) input–output analysis. This paper critically reviews the traditional use of multipliers in such cases. To avoid double–counting impacts and to solve related conceptual problems, the net multiplier concept is introduced. This net multiplier is illustrated empirically for the Dutch transport sector using a Type II biregional input–output model for the Netherlands.     

"华北"考

“华北”用于区域专用话语,是在近代西方在华势力扩大之后,从英语“NorthChina”衍生出来的,也与日语“北支那”有关。经过传媒的传播和民众的关注,“华北”一词成为具有民众广泛认同的地理词汇,并随着日本侵华强化了时代特点和使命感。值得重视的是,华北一词通过人文和自然科学的认定,通过冠名华北的管理机构的成立,有了行政区划,虽然该区划为时不长,但其区域理念和话语一直延续至今。     

五代时期的“中国”观

在五代十国时期,北方五朝相继,都以继承唐朝而自居于正统、代表中国,对其他各国都作现况的承认,但态度并不一致,视局势的不同而有所调整,或认为天下分裂,各有其国,或认为地方政权应在臣属的地位。而其他各国有的承认北方五代为正统,屈从于臣属地位,也有认为天下分裂,北方并不能是中国的必然代表,即各有其国,各有合法的地位。"中国"代表北方中原的朝代还是代表"天下"?在表述中并不一致,当时的情形是各自的认知并不一致之故,亦即没有共识的基础。     

Spatial Interpolation and Disaggregation of Multipliers

Most non-survey methods of estimating single-region multipliers have been shown to produce a systematic upward bias, unless a considerable amount of "superior" data is added. Here it is argued that this conclusion does not need to apply to the case of a non-survey, spatial disaggregation of multipliers. The method proposed consists of four steps with two substantive formulas. The first secures the non-survey interpolation of the lacking intra-regional multipliers for the smaller regions by means of regression. The second secures the non-survey spatial disaggregation of the inter-regional spillovers by means of second-order distance decays. The method is illustrated numerically by means of the interpolation and disaggregation of the 2 × 14 Type II biregional employment multipliers for aggregate Dutch regions into one 40 × 40 inter-regional employment multiplier matrix for the Netherlands as a whole.     

关于孙中山“三大政策”概念的形成及提出

在孙中山作和国民党“一大”件中,确实没有“三大政策”这一概念,但是,这一概念所包括的三个方面的内容又确实都来源于孙中山,是在特定环境下,从特定角度对于孙中山晚年思想和主张的一个比较精炼的概括。一个哲人的身后常常有无尽的关于这一哲人的争论。“三大政策”概念的提出,发端于对戴季陶主义和西山会议派的批判。它有一个长达一年有余的熔铸、提炼过程,在此期间,跨党的中共党员沈雁冰、施存统、陈独秀、周恩来,国民党左派柳亚子等人,以及国民党上海左派组织、黄埔左派学生、中共广东区委、中共中央等都发挥过作用。     

“中国中心观”与“夷”“洋”之变

晚清之前,中国始终认为自己是世界的中心,将中国之外的其他一切民族都看作是未开化的“蛮夷”。特别是明代朝贡制度形成后,“夷”“夏”卑尊泾渭分明。晚清从鸦片战争到中日甲午战争近六十年间,实现了从“夷”到“洋”的艰难转变。本文从“中国中心观”的形成入手,对这一转变进行了分析。     

Relating Disability Policy to Broader Public Policy: Understanding the Concept of "Handicap"

While it is recognized that disability policy is a subset of broader public policy, the relationship between disability issues and other public policy issues is not well understood. Insight into this relationship can be gained through a greater understanding of the concept of "handicap," as distinguished from the concepts of "impairment" and "disability." In everyday conversation, these terms typically are used interchangeably and erroneously. However, when applied correctly, their important differences help us to focus on the appropriate level for analyzing disability and other policy issues. When ignored for reasons concerning the "political unacceptability" of handicap as a term or concept, we risk focusing on the wrong level and possibly holding individuals with disabilities responsible for circumstances beyond their control.     

中国文化核心价值观“人”的观念的近代转型

"人"的观念的现代转型是全世界思想家数百年的研究主题,也是中国社会现代转型不可回避的问题。中国古代文化从人性善,即人与至善本体(仁、天理之类)同体共在出发,在抽象的意义上把人提到万物之灵的高度,但倡言去除人的天然欲望和政治权利,造成对人的千年桎梏。由西方发源的现代人论则把物欲满足、政治权利、思想自由视为人的根本自由。在中国近代,戊戌维新和辛亥革命领导人始公开承认人的私利的合理性,倡导人的解放。但他们未能把人的解放置于理性范围,最终放弃了初衷。新文化运动激进人士在更广泛的层面提倡人的解放,也讨论了人的私欲与社会亲和的关系问题,但因时间太短和过分强调精神解放,思想的局限性仍十分明显。五四以后,大多数启蒙者转入政治革命道路,国民党大倡文化回归,少数思想家继续人的解放的讨论,但对问题的思想源头缺乏探讨,研究未能深入下去。中国近代以来"人"的观念的转型探索任务远未完成。     

从“神树”到“钱树”——兼谈“树崇拜”观念的发展与演变

“树崇拜”是世界各地早期人类一项重要的信仰习俗,在我国西南地区有广泛的影响。三星堆出土的三千年前的青铜神树和四川等地出土的东汉前后的大量青铜钱树,是“树崇拜”的珍贵遗物。它们不仅造型优美、内涵丰富,而且有其内在的联系。研究两者的特征、异同及其演变情况,有助于揭示古代先民的思想观念发展变化及其所反映的历史问题。     

近代“选举”概念的演化及其文化喻义

古代"选举"的本义是选贤任能,在不同历史时期其具体指称对象不同。晚清以来,随着西方选举概念的输入,"选举"逐渐脱离中文传统涵义,转变成与英文"elect"对应的概念。这一过程不仅仅是一个语言问题,它蕴含深刻的文化喻义,与近代中西、中日间文化权势转移的大趋势相关联。"选举"的古今词义虽迥然不同,但思想层面的联系却难以完全割裂。     

汉民族丧葬仪式中对“运”平衡观念的处理——对川中地区丧葬仪式中“找中线”环节的分析

对出生与死亡仪式的解析一直是人类学研究的经典话题。在汉族丧葬仪式的一整套程序中,“下葬”是最为受重视的一个环节,其中找准中心位置尤为关键。本文通过对川中地区的丧葬仪式的透视,分析了在这一仪式环节中民间是如何通过“找中线”这一手段来平衡处理祖先与其子孙,及各继嗣群分支之间的关系的,并对形成这一习俗背后的深层原因—汉族民间宗教的宇宙观的影响作了简要分析。     

论魏晋士人“孝先于忠”的观念

"忠"、"孝"是中国古代两种最重要的道德观念,二者都是维护封建统治的伦理基础。通常统治者往往更重视忠,但魏晋时期却由于种种原因,忠孝关系倒错,形成了"孝先于忠"的观念。     

"中商文化"概念的意义及其相关问题

所谓中商文化就是商代中期文化。将商代的考古学文化划分为早、中、晚三个时期,早在 20世纪50年代末60年代初就已开始,但那个时候的早商文化,指的是洛达庙期(即二里头期) 文化,中商文化指的是二里冈期文化,晚商文化指的是殷墟期文化。当时还将成汤居亳到盘庚迁     

语言与历史:清代"人丁"概念的异变

"人丁"一词在漫长的中国封建社会中曾经有着非常高的使用率,属制度性词汇,为政府财政税收的专业术语,不仅在社会管理中,而且在人们的生活中广泛流行。但是到封建社会晚期,随着社会经济的发展以及政府税收制度的变革,"人丁"概念的内涵发生本质性变化,并且逐渐在人们的语境中消失。     

卜辞所见商代宗教哲学中的“命”

殷墟卜辞中有“帝于令”,“令”指“天命”。卜辞中又有“受命”,即文献中所说的“正命”,或“考终命”。卜辞中有“不既赢”,“赢”读为“盈”,指乾阳之气,如同文献中所说的“休命”。《甲骨文合集》6928是一版武丁时代的龟腹甲,上有“帝命”,反映了古代天人相应的观念。     

道器之间:近代以来"科学"观念嬗变与博物馆智识拓展

"科学"作为近代以来中国思想与社会变迁的关键观念,不仅具有知识本位的特征,也具有社会属性.科学观念的更迭与中国近现代社会结构和思想意识的转型发展相伴始终.科学观念的演进特点也折射到同时期博物馆智识范式的形成过程中,博物馆内的"科学"并非一种扁平化的知识体系,而是存在着多线发展的智识传统,科学形态对博物馆的影响也无法绝缘于社会文化政治情境之外.中国博物馆智识的发展在一定程度上体现为科学观念在知识与社会两个维度上的相互影响.     

Interpreting Spatial Economic Structure and Spatial Multipliers: Three Perspectives

The measurement and interpretation of spatial economic structure have presented many problems for analysts. The notion of a spatial multiplier has received even less formal attention; part of the motivation for this paper is the examination of the degree to which sectoral decomposition analysis might prove useful in illuminating the paths of interaction across space that are associated with changes in exogenous activity levels. In this paper, we present three perspectives that examine spatial structure in the context of an aggregated interregional social accounting matrix for Bangladesh. These perspectives examine structure at the micro-, meso-, and macrolevels and are interpreted with the assistance of several alternative methods, including structural path analysis, the field of influence, the superposition principle, multiregional feedback loop analysis, and the Matrioshka Principle; the results are interpreted analytically and cartographically. Some attention is also devoted to the formulation of a general approach to spatial multipliers. It is shown that the structure of flows and the structure of influence reveal patterns that, taken together, provide important insights into an understanding of structure and may prove to form the basis for the eventual formal presentation of the spatial multiplier.     

Requiem for the Net Migrant

Despite recent research that has demonstrated the clear superiority of a multiregional perspective in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration flows, many scholars continue to adopt the uniregional perspective that is forced to focus on net migrants, a nonexistent category of individuals. Net migration models are misspecified because the rates that they use confound changing migration propensities with changing population stocks. Moreover, they obscure regularities in age profiles of migration and thereby further misspecify the spatial dynamics generating observed settlement patterns. Thus, the use of the net migration rate as the dependent variable in explanatory models of migration can produce a misspecification of the fundamental relationships that are the subject of inquiry. This paper considers deficiencies of the net migration concept and illustrates them with numerical examples.     

从生老病死看唐宋时期敦煌佛教的世俗化

佛教与世俗是一个对立的范畴,前者重彼岸,后者重此岸;前者重来世,后者重今生;前者重出世,后者重入世。从本质上讲,佛教与世俗体现的是神与人的关系问题,佛教是以追寻、接近、体证宇宙人生的最高真理为其职志的,即所谓“有所宗”,因此是极端超离世俗现象世界的。若就功用而言,佛教之宏旨在于救度众生、解脱苦难,即所谓“有所教”,因此又是极端贴近世俗、不离现象世界的。所以说,佛教与世俗之间,存在着既相互对立又相互依存的关系。本文所谓的“佛教世俗化”,指的就是佛教在传播过程中对世俗社会有机结构与互动原理的认同与融摄。佛教寺院通过各种佛事活动来沟通并调整寺院与世俗社会的互动关系,与信众共同来维持或建构生命存在形式的理想规范,从而维持社会的和谐,并使之正常运作。