Testing for Local Spatial Autocorrelation in the Presence of Global Autocorrelation

A fundamental concern of spatial analysts is to find patterns in spatial data that lead to the identification of spatial autocorrelation or association. Further, they seek to identify peculiarities in the data set that signify that something out of the ordinary has occurred in one or more regions. In this paper we provide a statistic that tests for local spatial autocorrelation in the presence of the global autocorrelation that is characteristic of heterogeneous spatial data. After identifying the structure of global autocorrelation, we introduce a new measure that may be used to test for local structure. This new statistic Oi is asymptotically normally distributed and allows for straightforward tests of hypotheses. We provide several numerical examples that illustrate the performance of this statistic and compare it with another measure that does not account for global structure.     

"The Problem of Spatial Autocorrelation" and Local Spatial Statistics

This article examines the relationship between spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity, two properties unique to spatial data. The property of spatial dependence has led to a large body of research into spatial autocorrelation and also, largely independently, into geostatistics. The property of spatial heterogeneity has led to a growing awareness of the limitation of global statistics and the value of local statistics and local statistical models. The article concludes with a discussion of how the two properties can be accommodated within the same modelling framework.     

Understanding Local Policymaking: Policy Elites' Perceptions of Local Agenda Setting and Alternative Policy Selection

Despite the increasing interest in policy agenda research in recent years, very few studies have focused their attention on the relevant processes at the local level. Drawing on agenda-setting research, particularly Kingdon's multiple-streams framework, this study examines the key forces and factors, as well as their relative importance, in local agenda setting, problem identification, and alternative policy selection. Data are collected from 271 in-depth interviews with local policy stakeholders in three U.S. Gulf Coast areas. Interview materials are coded using a protocol focused on capturing stakeholders' perceptions of the key elements and forces in local policy dynamics. Our interview data indicate that (i) governmental actors and various interest groups have relatively more influence in shaping local agendas than the general public, experts, and election-related actors, while the mass media are found to have little agenda-setting power in local policy processes; (ii) budgetary consideration and various forms of feedback to local government are more important than objective problem indicators and focusing events in setting local policy priorities; (iii) policy alternatives that are deemed compatible with existing policies and regulations are more likely to be selected than those relying on other criteria such as technical feasibility, value acceptability, and future constraints; and (iv) consensus and coalition building is perceived as the most important political factor in local policy processes. Limitations of our study and recommendations for future research are discussed in the concluding section.     

The Lösch System of Market Areas: Derivation and Extension

Certain aspects of Lösch's classic work on the network of markets and the system of networks have not yet been clearly explained in the literature. Lösch did not describe his derivation procedures in full, and apparent printing errors in certain förmulae confuse the issue further, with the result that several recent texts reproduce Lösch's diagrams but offer no explanation of how they are constructed. Accepting the network of hexagonal market areas for a continuous system of markets, given an even but discrete distribution of population, the derivation from first principles of the complete system of different market areas is presented. Apparent errors in the translated text of Lösch's work are corrected. Limitations in some other authors' work and accordance with earlier empirically derived formulae are mentioned. The production of “city-rich” and “city-poor” sectors is shown to be a constraint on, rather than a result of, the system, and Lösch's statement that the coincidence of centers is maximized is clarified. The extension of the Lösch system to the internal tertiary structure of the city is presented and attention drawn to the empirical attractiveness of this approach.     

Association between Population Density and The Market Areas of Towns

This paper examines the relationship between population density and town spacing in four kinds of environment. These are: (1) linear curves of demand, transport and production costs and an even population distribution; (2) nonlinear transport cost curves over space; (3) variable population density within hinterlands; and (4) variation of transport costs with population density. Previously, it has been shown that the criterion of free entry does not uniquely determine town spacing. The implications of four stronger criteria are therefore examined in this paper. These location criteria are: (a) the number of towns is maximized; (b) the number of towns in minimized, subject to all consumers' being served; (c) the towns are all owned by one profit-maximizing monopolist; and (d) the average of some consumer utility function is maximized. In cases (a), (c), and (d) spacing decreases with density; in (b) spacing is an increasing function of density. Actual data are presented on the spacing of towns in Iowa and shopping centers in Chicago which indicate that spacing and population density are not associated. These results are consistent with the notion that entry is free but are not consistent with the stronger constraints employed in this paper.     

Surviving in a Competitive Spatial Market: The Threshold Capture Model

Many facility location decision models ignore the fact that for a facility to survive it needs a minimum demand level to cover costs. In this paper we present a decision model for a firm that wishes to enter a spatial market where there are several competitors already located. This market is such that for each outlet there is a demand threshold level that has to be achieved in order to survive. The firm wishes to know where to locate its outlets so as to maximize its market share taking into account the threshold level. It may happen that due to this new entrance, some competitors will not be able to meet the threshold and therefore will disappear. A formulation is presented together with a heuristic solution method and computational experience.     

Women and Guilds: Corporations and Female Labour Market Participation in Early Modern Holland

Recently, historians have suggested that the economic role of Dutch women and the remarkable economic development of the Dutch Republic are related. Guilds are said to have played an important role. This article analyses the female admission to guilds in early modern Holland in order to assess how guilds affected female labour participation. A classification of guilds according to their admittance of women reveals significant variations in the extent of incorporation of women. Gender norms were not rigid and were applied with flexibility. Thus, guilds formed no obstacle for women in contributing to the flourishing economy of the Dutch Republic.     

The Misappropriation of Malaitan Labour:

During the ‘crisis years’ in Solomon Islands from 1998–2003, Guadalcanal militants and the Guadalcanal provincial government showed resentment to the ‘foreign’ Solomon Islanders, mainly Malaitans, who lived there and forcefully claimed that the indigenous people of Guadalcanal suffered economic disadvantage on their own island. Malaitan counter-justification related to the need to protect their families in Honiara and stabilise the crumbling central government. This paper looks at the historical reasons why Malaitans left their island in the first place. The answer involves complex causes going back to the 1870s. Because Malaita has always been heavily populated, it drew labour recruiters from Queensland, Fiji and within the Protectorate, but for various reasons never attracted traders or planters. Unthinkingly encouraged by the British Protectorate administration and all post-independence governments, a pattern developed of ‘Malaitan muscle for hire’. Malaitan males became primarily a labour force for development projects elsewhere, and little attempt was made to introduce similar projects on Malaita. The paper also explores issues relating to resource development in Malaita Province and concludes that the problems there are no more difficult than on other large Melanesian islands.     

Models of Policy Discourse: insights versus Prediction

Policy researchers traditionally have adhered to the quantitative: (or positivist) approach. Recently, some policy analysts have emphasized a more qualitative (or postpositivist) approach. Little, if any, of the latter has been considered by proponents of the former as serious policy (i.e., "objective") analysis. This tension has produced some conflicts as to which camp is more attuned to a policy version of "truth."
This essay attempts to demonstrate the strong and weak points of both paradigms, and argues that either by itself has serious debilitations. For instance, positivists deny the subjective nature of values that denigrate the putatively "objective" orientations of their analyses, perhaps even rendering it "undemocratic." On the other hand, postpositivists have a difficult time operationalizing their preferred research methodologies with the necessary rigor.
The essay concludes that the research problem—rather than a favorite methodology—should determine the research approach, and that both the quantitative and qualitative aspects can be used in a consonant manner.     

Local Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics: Distributional Issues and an Application

The statistics G_i(d) and G_i*(d), introduced in Getis and Ord (1992) for the study of local pattern in spatial data, are extended and their properties further explored. In particular, nonbinary weights are allowed and the statistics are related to Moran's autocorrelation statistic, I. The correlations between nearby values of the statistics are derived and verified by simulation. A Bonferroni criterion is used to approximate significance levels when testing extreme values from the set of statistics. An example of the use of the statistics is given using spatial-temporal data on the AIDS epidemic centering on San Francisco. Results indicate that in recent years the disease is intensifying in the counties surrounding the city.     

当代美国大都市区的空间结构特征与交通困境

第二次世界大战后美国大都市区的交通拥堵现象越来越严重,而且从20世纪70年代以来出现了新的发展趋势,即交通拥堵由原来的中心城市不断向郊区延伸.美国大都市区交通拥堵的原因深深地植根于大都市区的空间结构之中,其中包括郊区的低密度蔓延、住宅和就业的失衡、社区土地利用模式的单一性、郊区社区的空间设计和道路系统等.由于这些结构性问题十分难以克服,美国大都市区的交通陷于困境之中.     

Participation in Policy Streams: Testing the Separation of Problems and Solutions in Subnational Policy Systems

The multiple streams theory of national policymaking has been influential in the study of public administration and public policy—if not without a fair bit of controversy. While some laud the model for its openness to the important role of policy entrepreneurs and the irrationalities of the decision‐making processes, others criticize the model for its lack of readily testable propositions. This article identifies a series of testable propositions in the multiple streams model (particularly that discussed by Kingdon). We assess whether participation in local policymaking (focusing on school district policymaking related to violence prevention) is characterized by “separate streams” of participants or is dominated by organized participants like interest groups or policy specialists. We found evidence of unity (rather than separation) in the policymaking process and scant evidence of elite, organized interests dominating the policymaking process. The results call into question a key assumption of the multiple streams model.     

Angels versus Devils: The Portrayal of Characters in the Gun Policy Debate

This research examines the role of the devil shift and angel shift in interest group rhetoric using the case of gun policy. The Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) suggests that the devil shift—whereby political actors characterize their opponents as more malicious and powerful than they actually are—is common in intractable policy debates. Through an analysis of e‐mails and press releases by two gun control organizations and two gun rights organizations, I examine how groups portray themselves and their opponents. I identify two dimensions relevant to these portrayals: (1) whether a character in a policy narrative is portrayed as good or evil, and (2) whether a character is portrayed as strong or weak. The findings indicate that while the devil shift is present, the angel shift—that is, the glorification of one's own coalition—is more common in gun policy groups' communications. Two alternative characterizations, which I call the angel in distress and the devil diminished, are also present. The use of these character portrayals varies significantly across political coalitions and as a function of communication purposes. The results suggest a need to reconceptualize character portrayals to better understand how they operate as narrative strategies in the NPF.