A Comparative Analysis of Twenty-Eight Transition Economies in Europe and Asia

Two senior World Bank economists provide a broad comparative overview of transition economies, covering the former Soviet Union, East Central Europe, China, and Vietnam. In the process, they assess the experience of each of the 20 European and 8 Asian countries up to 1996, focusing on the wide variation in exposure to economic and political liberalization and distinguishing growing and recovering economies from the lagging. Based on recent measures of key macroeconomic indicators, the authors' classification and analysis embrace the impact of specific factors (e.g., different duration and intensity of reforms; exposure to regional tensions) on economic growth and inflation. Also included in the study is a comparison of inter-industry linkages and macroeconomic feedback in Russia and China. 9 figures, 8 tables, 25 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P21, P41, P51, P52.     

中日俄在东北亚地区的能源博弈

国际能源消耗与日俱增,原油价格不断飙升,“能源安全”问题日趋凸显。比邻而居的中日两国都是世界能源消耗大国和能源进口大国,在能源领域有着“共同的弱点”。近些年中日在东北亚地区围绕俄罗斯西伯利亚·远东输油管线建设问题展开了激烈的博弈。作为能源供应国的俄罗斯,大搞能源外交,有意在东北亚能源市场中引入竞争机制,谋求本国利益最大化,这在客观上进一步加剧了中日在输油管线问题上的恶性竞争。在能源领域,如何协调和缓解对抗式、排他式的恶性竞争,避免传统的“零和博弈”是摆在中日俄面前的重要课题。     

日俄战争后日俄美的东北亚政策

2005年作为日俄建交150周年的纪念,在日俄关系及东北亚国际关系中都将具有重要意义。同样,重新研究一百年前的日俄战争结束后东北亚地区主要国际势力的对策,对于认清国际外交舞台上瞬息骤变的政治风云,及各国纵横捭阖以采取符合本国利益的积极对策是有一定借鉴意义的。本文即对日、俄、美三个对东北亚地区有重要影响的国家在日俄战争后的外交对策进行了简要的论述。     

Europe,the rise of Asia and the future of the transatlantic relationship

This article examines how, in a global strategic context presided by the rise of Asia and the US rebalance towards that region, Europeans are contributing to transatlantic burden‐sharing—whether individually or through the EU/NATO. As Asian powers reach westward and the US shifts its strategic priorities eastward, classical geostrategic delimitations become gradually tenuous. Particularly important are the ‘middle spaces’ of the Indian Ocean, central Asia and the Arctic, in that they constitute the main avenues of communication between the Asia–Pacific and the European neighbourhood. The article seeks to understand how evolving geostrategic dynamics in Europe, the ‘middle spaces’ and the Asia–Pacific relate to each other, and how they might impinge on discussions on transatlantic burden‐sharing. It is argued that the ability of Europeans to contribute to a more equitable transatlantic burden‐sharing revolves around two main tenets. First, by engaging in the ‘middle spaces’, Europe's key powers and institutions are helping to underpin a balance of power in these regions. Second, by stepping up their diplomatic and economic role in the Asia–Pacific, strengthening their security ties to (US) regional allies and maintaining an EU‐wide arms embargo on China, Europeans are broadly complementing US efforts in that key region. There are a number of factors that stand in the way of a meaningful European engagement in the ‘middle spaces’ and the Asia–Pacific, including divergent security priorities among Europeans, the impact of budgetary austerity on European defence capabilities and a tendency to confine foreign policy to the immediate neighbourhood. The article discusses the implications of those obstacles and outlines some ways in which they might be overcome.     

The European miracle. Environment,economies and geopolitics in the history of Europe and Asia

This article analyses the 1936 “Wotan” essay by Swiss psychologist Carl Gustav Jung in light of one of its reigning motifs, Ergriffenheit. First, this term is examined within the works of Protestant theologian Rudolf Otto and Indologist Jakob Wilhelm Hauer, who used it to describe what they claimed to be the original religious experience, a state of being deeply stirred or even seized by the “the holy” or by “the ultimate reality.” The article then examines antecedents in Jung's theory of states of psychic seizure, in which two halves of the psyche come into conflict, the resolution of which leads to an increased capacity to create the arts of culture. The analysis then moves to the “Wotan” essay itself, where Jung brings together his own theory of psychic seizure with the theory of the original religious experience as proposed by the above-named scholars of religion in order to suggest that, under National Socialism, the Germans were in the midst of a collective confrontation with their own inner divinity, which should lead to a national spiritual rebirth. The article then investigates the works of several of the men Jung mentions in the essay, as well as his use of ancient Germanic mythology, to support his claim. Through his portrait of the Germanic archetype Wotan, Jung psychologizes and thereby essentializes the Romantic image of the Germans as “a people of poets and philosophers” as well as that of a Nietzschean “master-race.” In conclusion, the article argues that, at least in 1936, Jung's attitude towards Hitler and National Socialism was much more favorable than has previously been recognized.     

Assessing the danger of war: parallels and differences between Europe in 1914 and East Asia in 2014

The article looks at structural analogies between the strategic situation in Europe in the summer of 1914 and in East Asia today, with particular emphasis on the probability of the outbreak of a major war. The author examines analogies regarding the nature of the international system, i.e. is the international system characterized by outright anarchy or by a more or less developed and institutionalized understanding among the main actors about the way to preserve peace and to organize economic exchange? The article addresses domestic factors (nationalism, democratic, authoritarian or semi‐democratic regimes) and investigates military dynamics against the backdrop of geography and the availability of military equipment and technologies. Possible routes of military escalation are also discussed. Special attention is paid to states that have isolated themselves and that dispose of military means that might promise swift victory. The article comes to the conclusion that there are very few similarities between Europe in 1914 and East Asia today, but that both the high degree of militarization of the Korean peninsula and the evolving military competition between the US and China in the region do imply the possibility of a major armed conflict in a not too distant future.     

亚洲溢价--中日能源的共同困境

由于中东石油输出国对同一时间出口到不同地区的同种原油采用不同的计价公式,使亚洲原油进口价格高于欧美等国的进口价格,形成亚洲溢价。进入21世纪以来,亚洲溢价程度加深,范围扩展。本文在介绍亚洲溢价基础上着重分析了亚洲溢价对中日两国的不利影响以及亚洲溢价的产生原因,提出通过培育亚洲原油定价中心、中日联合采购等途径削减亚洲溢价,能维护亚洲能源进口国的利益。     

动物纹艺术与欧亚草原之路

我国北方长城沿线出土了大量含有动物纹饰的器物。从已知考古资料入手分析,发现其产生与商周时期黄河流域高度发达的青铜文化有关,而在其发展过程中又受到了以斯基泰类型为代表的欧亚草原动物纹的极大影响,这一切背后的推动力则是欧亚大草原上持续了数个世纪之久的民族迁徙浪潮。