The impact of bargaining delays under the threat of eminent domain

Developers seeking to assemble complementary parcels of land will likely encounter strategic behavior by landowners. Using a property‐level data set from Florida's Department of Transportation covering the period January 2000 to July 2014, I test whether bargaining delays lead to higher final transaction prices. Given the nature of the data, I can compare properties within the same roadway project to estimate the effect of delayed negotiations. My empirical estimates indicate that bargaining delays lead to increased final transaction prices. The magnitude of this effect is approximately 7 percent for the average holdout, however, the effect is nonlinear and diminishes over time.     

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreation by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the original sample's point estimate depending on the calculation method. Due to the linearity of input-output a shortcut method that estimates confidence interval endpoints from the distribution of mean expenditure profiles yields nearly identical results.     

THE EVOLUTION OF HUMPHREY-HAWKINS*

Humphrey-Hawkins, enacted into law as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, is the most important step the Federal government has taken for overall economic coordination since passage of the Employment Act of 1946. The centerpiece of the new law is specific goals for unemployment and inflation. All Federal programs and policies are to work toward achieving a 3 percent adult and 4 percent overall jobless rate within five years, and inflation rates of 3 percent by 1983 and 0 percent by 1988. The present article outlines the major changes made in Humphrey-Hawkins from its introduction in June 1974 to its enactment in October 1978, the contents of the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, and the politics surrounding its passage.     

Who Pays the Costs of Inflation?

Inflation may be looked upon as a deferred consumption tax which reduces consumer purchasing power through high prices to compensate for earlier excess expansions of credit. A portion of this excess borrowing is by government to finance deficits. The inflation cost may then be compared by family–income class with the alternative income taxes needed to avoid inflation by eliminating the deficits. By this calculation for 1965–75, the inflation cost was highly regressive, with an effective rate of 17 percent on. families below $5,000, and 17 times greater than such families would have had to pay in income taxes. Meantime, the effective inflationary tax rate for wealthy families over $50,000 in income was a bonus, or tax rebate, of one percent.     

A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING QUARTERLY LOCAL-AREA PERSONAL INCOME*

ABSTRACT A single-equation econometric approach is developed for estimating personal income on a quarterly basis for counties and county aggregates (e.g., metropolitan areas). An experiment is conducted on state data to test the accuracy of the estimates. The experiment indicates that they would be highly accurate for large local areas; for local areas comprising at least 20 percent of their state's total personal income, the estimates would fall within 2 percent of BEA-type estimates 95 percent of the time. An aggregate estimation approach is shown to be preferable to a component approach. Using data on local department store sales, the quarterly personal income estimates are shown to forecast better than the currently available annual estimates.     

THE PROBLEM OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT: RESULT OF MUDDLED NATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES

During 1953 through 1979 estimated, the U.S. economy has exhibited a roller-coaster economic performance–six periods of inadequate upturn, stagnation, and recession, with a chronic rise in unemployment because each upturn at its peak has tended to leave us with more unemployment than the previous one. During the period as a whole, we have forfeited 7.1 trillion 1978 dollars in GNP and 80.8 million years of civilian employment opportunities, and consequently lost about 1.8 trillion dollars in public revenues at all levels, with severe neglect of national priorities, and chronically rising Federal Budget deficits. This sorry record is due primarily to reliance upon a “trade-off” between unemployment and inflation. But empirical evidence for more than a quarter century has demonstrated that inflation rises as unused capabilities increase and vice versa. The annual inflation rate during the first half of 1979 exceeded 13 percent despite recession; it ranged from 1.6–3.0 percent during periods close to full employment. We now need thorough reconstruction of national economic policies, including abandonment of (1) the unemployment-inflation “trade-off,” (2) attempts to balance the federal budget at the expense of the economy and the people, (3) the prevalent monetary policy with soaring interest rates, and (4) excessive reliance on tax reductions in lieu of increased public outlays or investment. These changes would replace improvised and frequently conflicting national economic policies with comprehensive and coherent efforts. All this is in accord with the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978     

Economic valuation of a rise in ambient radiation risks: Hedonic pricing evidence from the accident in Fukushima

Using a combined data set of radiation levels and property prices from Fukushima and Miyagi prefectures that runs from 2009 to early 2017, the economic impact of radiation from the Fukushima nuclear accident is assessed. A 1 percent rise in radiation is associated with approximately 0.051 percentage drop in housing prices and though the level of radiation falls substantially after 2011, the estimated elasticity is broadly stable. The associated estimate of VSL (value of a statistical life) is in the region of US$4.5–6.4 million, which suggests no strong element of dread or overestimation of risks is present.     

A NOTE ON ADDED INFORMATION IN THE RAS PROCEDURE: REEXAMINATION OF SOME EVIDENCE

ABSTRACT.  An example in Miernyk (1977) presented a rather counterintuitive result, namely, that introducing accurate exogenous information into an RAS matrix estimating procedure could lead to an estimate that was worse than one generated by RAS using no exogenous information at all. This became an oft-cited black mark against RAS. Miller and Blair (1985) included a different (and small) illustration of the same possibility. It was recently pointed out by one of us that the Miller–Blair numerical results are wrong. For that reason, we decided to reexamine all the empirical evidence we could find on the subject. While figures in both Miernyk and Miller–Blair appear to be wrong, more recent published examples seem to have it right. In short, it is possible to identify examples in which additional (correct) information leads to poorer RAS estimates, at least under several fairly common metrics for comparing "closeness" of matrices. However, the overwhelming majority of the evidence is to the contrary. As a general rule, introduction of accurate exogenous information into RAS improves the resulting estimates, and counterexamples should probably not be taken too seriously.     

New Evidence of the Effect of Transaction Costs on Residential Mobility*

Abstract. Transaction costs have attracted considerable attention in the theoretical literature on residential mobility. Transaction costs are thought to cause suboptimal consumption of housing but may also negatively affect labor market outcomes. In the current paper, we demonstrate empirically for the Netherlands that transaction costs have a strong negative effect on the owners' probability of moving. Under a range of different specifications, it appears that a 1 percent‐point increase in the value of transaction costs—as a percentage of the value of the residence—decreases residential mobility rates by (at least) 8 percent. The estimates imply that ownership to ownership mobility rates would be substantially higher in the absence of the current 6 percent ad valorem buyer transaction tax. Our estimates are consistent with the observation that in the Netherlands ad valorem transaction costs mainly consist of buyer transaction costs.     

Bayesian Updating of Seismic Demand Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Bridges with Two-Column Bents

Probabilistic models have been developed in a previous study by the authors to estimate the seismic deformation demands on structural components of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with two-column bents. However, such models should be updated to reflect the latest laboratory of field data. Using a Bayesian approach, this article updates a currently available probabilistic model for the deformation demands of columns in bridges with two-column RC bents. The updated model incorporates information from newly available experimental data from shake table tests conducted based on a record of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake for a structural system with three bents with two columns per bent. The updated model is more accurate than the previous one in predicting the deformation demand of bridges with two-column RC bents and reduces the statistical uncertainty due to the addition of new data. As an application, fragility estimates for an example bridge are computed using the updated model both at the component (column) and system (bridge) levels.     

Psychosurgery in Sweden 1944-1964

This study presents results on hitherto unknown data on lobotomies performed at the former State Mental Hospital of Umedalen (from here on called simply "Umedalen") in the north of Sweden. More than 700 operations were carried out from 1947 through 1960, and we calculated the average rate of postoperative mortality to 7.4 percent, and that 63 percent of those who were operated were women. By considering annual hospital reports to the National Board of Health (Medicinalstyrelsen), we also made the first mapping of early psychosurgery in Sweden; approximately 4,500 lobotomies were performed between 1944 and 1966. Statistical analysis, qualitative content analysis, and discourse analysis were used. The study supports earlier findings of female preponderance in the number of lobotomy operations.     

Marginal Cost Estimates of the Water Resources of the USSR

A water-management regionalization and determination of marginal cost estimates of water resources over the next three decades (to about 2000) outlines a set of priorities for the construction of dams and interbasin diversion projects. The predicted water requirements are based on the assumption that irrigation needs will increase at a moderate rate (30 million hectares by the end of the forecast period). The resulting marginal cost estimates are expected to affect long-term plans for the location of water-intensive activities (irrigation, water transport, thermal power generation, chemicals, pulp and paper) for which water costs may represent 40 to 50 percent of the total cost difference between alternate locations.     

China's Quiet Agricultural Revolution: Policy and Programs of the New Millennium

Two specialists on China's agricultural sector review the recent course of agrarian reform in the country since the year 2000. More specifically, they summarize the more significant policy changes occurring during the period 2000-2009 (including the rollout of major new programs and agricultural tax relief) while simultaneously tracking impressive improvements in a variety of standard indicators of agricultural performance and rural per capita incomes across China's province-level units. Among other things, the authors draw contrasts between the current (post-WTO accession) and earlier reform period (1980-1985) in agriculture in terms of level of government direction and commitment to develop the sector for its own sake, outline measures undertaken to address problems with the production of tainted and/or adulterated food products, trace significant spatial "reshufflings" of rice and corn production at the provincial level, and offer possible explanations for the outwardly confounding lack of positive relationships between aggregate value of field crops/total value of all agricultural activities and rural incomes at the provincial level. They argue that renewed (yet underpublicized) government attention to the farm sector since 2000 has helped promote social stability in China by increasing food supplies (thus reducing food price effects on inflation), encouraging more sustainable farming practices, and improving rural environmental quality in many areas.     

OSL and TL dating of the Middle Stone Age sequence at Diepkloof Rock Shelter (South Africa): a clarification

Diepkloof Rock Shelter offers an exceptional opportunity to study the onset and evolution of both Still Bay (SB) and Howiesons Poort (HP) techno-complexes. However, previous age estimates based on luminescence dating of burnt quartzites (Tribolo et al., 2009) and of sediments (Jacobs et al., 2008) were not in agreement. Here, we present new luminescence ages for 17 rock samples (equivalent dose estimated with a SAR-ITL protocol instead of classical MAAD-TL) as well as for 5 sediment samples (equivalent dose estimated with SAR-single grain OSL protocol) and an update of the 22 previous age estimates for burnt lithics (modified calibration and beta dose estimates). While a good agreement between the rock and sediment ages is obtained, these estimates are still significantly older than those reported by Jacobs et al. (2008). After our own analyses of the sediment from Diepkloof, it is suspected that these authors did not correctly chose the parameters for the equivalent dose determination, leading to an underestimate of the equivalent doses, and thus of the ages.     

Camp Composition and the Rocky Mountain Fur Trade: Estimating the Native Presence at the Early Rendezvous and Winter Camps, 1825–1830

Rendezvous and winter camps were central to the early Rocky Mountain fur trade. However, available research provides no estimate of the number of people in attendance. Knowledge of the size and demographic makeup of the mountain gatherings would facilitate research on camp socio-cultural dynamics, interpretation of the historic events, and identification of modern archeological sites. The present study estimates the number of people present at the early rendezvous and winter camps (1825–1830). The estimations support existing research that emphasizes Native people's involvement in the fur trade. For instance, of the 1550 estimated attendees at the 1827 rendezvous, the Native contingent comprised approximately 90% of the total. While it is commonly known that Native peoples attended and participated in the Rocky Mountain fur trade rendezvous, this research presents evidence that the Native presence often far outnumbered the traders and trappers in attendance.     

THE IMPACT OF MARGINAL BUSINESS TAXES ON STATE MANUFACTURING

We estimate the impact of manufacturer business taxes on value added during the 1990s for 15 manufacturing sectors in 20 U.S. states. When the tax climate is properly measured as the potential liability arising from new investment in a state, we estimate that a 10 percent reduction in the effective tax liability is associated with a 3.5 to 5.3 percent increase in value added for the state's targeted manufacturing industry. When we isolate the value of industrial incentives from the basic tax system in our theoretically preferred marginal tax measure, we find that a 10 percent reduction in liability achieved by way of lowering taxes is associated with a 4.5 percent increase in value added while an equivalent reduction achieved by way of increasing incentives is associated with only 1.2 percent industrial growth, the latter elasticity not statistically different from zero.     

Regional Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Network in Charleston,South Carolina

This article presents the results of a seismic risk assessment of the bridge network in Charleston, South Carolina and the surrounding counties to support emergency planning efforts, and for prioritization of bridge retrofit. This study includes an inventory analysis of the approximately 375 bridges in the Charleston area, and convolution of the seismic hazard with fragility curves analytically derived for classes of bridges common to this part of the country. State-of-the-art bridge fragility curves and replacement cost estimates based on region-specific data are used to obtain economic loss estimates. The distribution of potential bridge damage and economic losses are evaluated for several scenario events in order to aid in the identification of emergency routes and assess areas for investment in retrofit. This article also evaluates the effect of uncertainty on the resulting predicted economic losses. The findings reveal that while the risk assessment is very sensitive to both the assumed fragility curves and damage ratios, the estimate of total expected economic losses is more sensitive to the vast differences in damage ratio models considered.     

IMMIGRATION AND HOUSING BOOMS: EVIDENCE FROM SPAIN*

ABSTRACT We provide causal estimates of the effect of immigration on house prices and construction activity in Spain over the period 2000–2010. During this period Spain experienced spectacular swings in both immigration and the housing market. Our instrumental‐variables estimates suggest that between 2000 and 2010, immigration led to an average 1.5 percent annual increase in the working‐age population. This was responsible for an annual increase in housing prices of about 2 percent, and for a 1.2–1.5 percent increase in housing units. Overall, immigration was responsible for one quarter of the increase in prices and about half of the construction activity over the decade.     

Parameter mixing errors within a measuring volume with applications to incoherent scatter

The effect on parameter error estimates resulting from parameter variations within the measuring volume under consideration is studied in the framework of linear statistical inversion theory. It is shown that using estimates for the parameter averages is equivalent to having the theory corrected by the covariances of the variables coupled with the second derivatives of the theory function. If the parameter distributions were known exactly, this would only introduce a bias in the linear theory and hence a systematic error in the parameter centre point estimates. When the distributions are not known exactly, there is another source of error consisting of the uncertainties in the parameter variation estimates. This leads to new error bounds on the allowed parameter variability within the volume under consideration if some prescribed accuracy in the parameter average estimates is required. These considerations are applied to incoherent scatter (IS) radar measurements, where it is important to be able to estimate the effect of integrating both in space and time over a volume with varying parameters in order to obtain spectra or autocorrelation functions. Numerical examples are given in the case of the O⁺ content estimates in measurements with the EISCAT UHF radar, when for example the ion temperature varies over the integration ranges. The results obtained may be used in the design of experiments when high resolution composition measurements are required.     

Obsidian hydration dating on the South Coast of Peru

We compare over 230 obsidian hydration readings from 30 individual site components from the Southern Nasca Region (SNR) with independent age estimates based on radiocarbon dates and temporally diagnostic artifacts. Although there are problems with small sample sizes, and readings must be adjusted for elevation, a very strong relationship accounting for nearly 90% of the total variation in the data set is found. This suggests that obsidian hydration dating (OHD) works in the SNR and is a viable means of independently estimating age. Residual values from our regression suggest that hydration age estimates are usually within 15% of the radiocarbon estimates. Finally, we present an equation other scholars can use to estimate age for Quispisisa obsidian in the SNR.