Three Methods for Detecting Past Groupings: Cultural Space and Group Identity

Grouping techniques employ similarities within data to create new entities, which lend themselves to the interpretation process. This article presents three different grouping approaches, each originally developed independently, and applied to a common dataset of archaeological finds. The aim is not to search for the right approach or results, in a competing way, but rather to present the methods as complementary. It is also our intention to stress that a tight connection between theory and statistical modelling is indispensable. Indeed, the use of a particular methodology must be supported by an adapted theory; similarly, a theory without a proper methodological realisation will often not have any actual utility. The integration of theory and method is exemplified in the three case methods. The first method uses metal objects as cultural indicators. The study area is divided into a set of identical geographical units, characterized according to the type and proportions of indicators and grouped using hierarchical clustering. The second approach deals with cultures as standardisations between individuals, using ‘Typenspektrum’ as significant data for identifying different cultures. Groups are defined through kernel density estimation and a cluster analysis, followed by internal and external validation techniques. A third method characterizes the funerary ritual and grave-goods, using a similarity algorithm coupled with clustering procedures to compare the graves with one another. The outcome is validated with exploratory methods and compared to patterns from different contexts. The complementarity of the results shows that each approach sheds light on a certain facet of the same whole.     

COMPETITIVE LOCATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY OF COSTS

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we study the centroid problem from competitive location theory for a linear market with uniform demand, assuming that the leader has imperfect information about the follower's fixed and marginal costs. It is shown that the general version of this problem can be formulated as a nonlinear programming problem and the exact solution can be obtained analytically in a special case. A simple strategy is also given for the general problem, and it is proven that this strategy has a guaranteed error bound. It is demonstrated that uncertainty of costs might lead to market failure in the centroid problem, but this disappears if the game is repeated and the firms learn from observing each other's moves. It is also shown that it is possible for the leader to obtain optimal expected profit at a low perceived risk, with only sufficient, and not necessarily perfect, information. These two observations lead to our primary conclusion from the study that although cost uncertainty is a realistic feature of most competitive location models, there are very effective ways of dealing with it.     

Frequency Estimation of Natural Hazards and Extremes

Detailed studies of natural hazards such as floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and earthquakes often require estimates of the frequencies of occurrence of particular extreme events However, the techniques for making these estimates are sometimes misunderstood and misapplied, particularly with regard to the forms of frequency distribution that are assumed or implied The most appropriate distribution and estimation technique depend on several factors, including the physical nature of the event, the available data and the intended application of the estimate. The present paper attempts to review these matters, giving attention to a range of techniques from simple graphical extrapolation to reasonably rigorous analytical procedures. It is pointed out that, no matter how sophisticated the technique, there is always some inaccuracy and uncertainty in such estimates. Attention is therefore also given to relatively simple methods of assessing the degree of uncertainty.     

Spatial Analysis in Physical Geography and the Challenge of Deterministic Uncertainty

The application of complex and nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) theory in physical geography and geosciences has proceeded through several stages, and has recently entered a phase where field-testable hypotheses and historical or mechanistic explanations are being generated. However, there are some fundamental challenges. It seems clear that chaos and dynamical self-organization are present, and may be common in earth surface systems, and that these phenomena have spatial manifestations in the landscape. However, NDS theory and methods have been formulated primarily in the temporal domain and are typically ill-suited to real-world spatial data. Spatial analytical methods are not generally capable of distinguishing deterministic complexity and uncertainty from noise. Thus, the detection of the signals of complex deterministic dynamics in real landscapes and spatial data is a major challenge. Entropy-based methods of spatial analysis can be directly linked to nonlinear dynamics, and are at present the best available method to approach this problem. However, there is evidence in the spatial analysis literature suggesting that development of techniques to detect deterministic uncertainty is possible. Pending such a break-through, three general approaches are described, based on spatial analysis of chronosequences, the characteriziation of changes in spatial structure over time, and the spatial-domain testing of specific hypotheses relevant to deterministic uncertainty. Current trends generally suggest a shift in mathematical modeling and spatial analysis in physical geography away from traditional determinism toward approaches that incorporate locational, historical, and scale contingency.     

Analytical examination of animal remains from Borneo: the painting of bone and shell

Examination of a selection of shell and bone from archaeological assemblages excavated at Niah Cave and Gua Sireh, both of which are located in Sarawak, Borneo, has revealed the deliberate application of coloured material to one or more surfaces. Small fragments of the surface colourant were analysed using a variety of techniques, including microscopy, energy dispersive microwave analysis and infra-red spectrophotometry. These procedures established that, although red in colour, the applied coating in each instance was not red iron oxide. It is suggested that, based on the chemical components present, this coating was a tree resin or a similar organic substance. The paper further reports the presence of enhanced chloride values in the colourant recovered from the ancient human cranial fragment tested. It is suggested that elevated concentrations of this trace element may indicate that the site, the human remains or ingredients within the colourant were once in close proximity to the sea.     

UNCERTAINTY AND THE HISTORY OF IDEAS

Intellectual historians often make empirical claims, but can never know for certain if these claims are right. Uncertainty is thus inevitable for intellectual historians. But accepting uncertainty is not enough: we should also act on it, by trying to reduce and report it. We can reduce uncertainty by amassing valid data from different sources to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of competing explanations, rather than trying to “prove” an empirical claim by looking for evidence that fits it. Then we should report our degree of certainty in our claims. When we answer empirical questions in intellectual history, we are not telling our readers what happened: we are telling them how strong we think our evidence is—a crucial shift of emphasis. For intellectual historians, then, uncertainty is subjective, as discussed by Keynes and Collingwood; the paper thus explores three differences between subjective and objective uncertainty. Having outlined the theoretical basis of uncertainty, the paper then offers examples from actual research: Noel Malcolm's work shows how to reduce and report uncertainty about composition, and David Wootton's work shows how to reduce and report uncertainty about beliefs.     

A Comparison of Three Methods for the Extraction of Phytoliths from Sediments

This paper compares three methods commonly used to extract fossil phytoliths from sediments. A basic procedure using heavy liquid flotation and oxidation is compared with two other procedures across a range of sediment types commonly encountered in archaeological studies. The three procedures are: (1) a heavy liquid flotation method (HLF); (2) a burning method (POW); and (3) another heavy liquid flotation method (HLFPol) similar to HLF, but adapted to allow the extraction of pollen and spores as well as phytoliths, within a single process. Comparisons of the resulting output using these three techniques for phytolith extraction show that different methods can produce different results, and therefore basic techniques should be modified according to the characteristics of the sediments for which they are used. While all the techniques showed similarities in assemblage results, there were problems associated with disaggregation and effective separation of light and heavy fractions, in particular with the POW procedure. The evidence suggests that morphotype selection occurred both within the physical sorting process and in the process of inverting slides to shed excess residue; in both cases it is difficult to suggest a solution to the problem. The results show clearly that the advantages gained by using the POW procedure are largely outweighed by the problems encountered with its use, and because of possible size/shape selection, it is not recommended for general extraction procedures. The heavy liquid flotation procedures, on the other hand, are shown to produce more concentrated residues with higher levels of clarity and less potential than the POW procedure for sample bias. The use of a non-toxic heavy liquid, sodium polytungstate, now allows the process to be used in relative safety. It is recommended that analysts use heavy liquid flotation procedures with chemical treatments specific to sediment requirements.     

Scientific Uncertainty and Learning in European Union Environmental Policymaking

Scientific uncertainty characterizes policy/making in many environmental issue areas. Policymakers must rely on scientists to bring environmental problems to their attention, design and prescribe policy solutions, and to define and evaluate policy effectiveness. An important theoretical question is: What role does organizational learning play in amelioration of scientific uncertainty and shaping environmental policy. This study examines the political processes and policy outcomes associated with European Union policymaking to revise water quality directives and deal with climate change to ascertain and describe the role played by organizational learning. The evidence suggests that organizational learning is occurring as an integral part of the political dynamics of policymaking in these two issue areas.     

旅游企业内部人际关系对新员工组织融入的作用机理研究

对刚刚进入组织的新员工,在转换社会角色、适应组织环境、调适个体行为过程中,工作中的人际关系因素起着重要作用。本文以组织社会化理论为研究依据,通过实际测量与分析,探索旅游企业内部人际关系对旅游院校毕业生适应工作、融入组织的影响及其作用机理。本研究的验证与发现有利于旅游企业制定和实施有效的人力资源策略,推动专业人才队伍的培养与建设。     

BEYOND THE QUANTITATIVE CUL-DE-SAC: A QUALITATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON YOUTH EMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS*

There is a pressing need in the United States to develop effective programs that address youth unemployment and the transition from school to work. Based on work at 47 sites in 31 states, this paper reports on a policy evaluation strategy that heavily relied on qualitative research. On-site observers at each of these sites focused on key issues of program implementation, linkages to other agencies and organizations serving youth, and on the effectiveness of different program strategies for different target populations. The utility of qualitative analysis for in-depth assessments of these programs is stressed.     

奥运与旅游相互促进的功能及方式——基于常规旅游价值链与全面营销导向的研究

本文在分析奥运作为全球特大型事件旅游对举办国或举办地具有的集聚性、不确定性、一次性影响特点与常规旅游对接待国或接待地具有平稳性、可持续性影响特点的基础上,运用国内外经验验证说明了奥运特大型事件旅游与常规旅游之间具有重要的互补性与互促性功能,并运用常规旅游价值链与全面营销理论进一步研究说明了如何充分发挥这种互补性与互促性功能的具体方式.     

TESTING THE SPATIAL SCALE AND THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN REGIONAL MODELS (A CONTRIBUTION TO SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS)*

This article addresses the problem of specification uncertainty in modeling spatial economic theories in stochastic form. It is ascertained that the traditional approach to spatial econometric modeling does not adequately deal with the type and extent of specification uncertainty commonly encountered in spatial economic analyses. Two alternative spatial econometric modeling procedures proposed in the literature are reviewed and shown to be suitable for analyzing systematically two sources of specification uncertainty, viz., the level of aggregation and the spatio-temporal dynamic structure in multiregional econometric models. The usefulness of one of these specification procedures is illustrated by the construction of a simple multiregional model for The Netherlands.     

An Efficient Search Strategy for Site-Selection Decisions in an Expert System

This paper describes an algorithm for spatial search, which is used in an expert system for site selection. The algorithm, named ProfMat, is able to find the best site in the area of interest even when the number of possible sites is large and many decision criteria are involved. Compared to commonly used search procedures, ProfMat improves the efficiency of spatial search in two ways. First, the best site is identified through an iterative rather than a linear process of selection and evaluation of optional sites. Second, an area is searched by narrowing down the focus to increasingly smaller areas and, thus, sites are evaluated as much as possible groupwise. The ProfMat procedure is illustrated by analyzing the problem of retail site selection. A comparison with alternative search procedures shows that ProfMat considerably reduces the evaluation costs needed to find the best site. The implementation of the algorithm in an expert system shows how ProfMat can be used in combination with specialist's knowledge to solve site-selection problems. The efficiency of the procedure allows considering large sets of optional sites, so that it may improve the quality of the outcome.     

生产网络演化视角下的城市产业升级路径研究——以汕头市纺织服装行业为例

如何根据自身经济活动所具有的空间组织特征和演化轨迹来选择升级路径,是城市政府需要解决的重要问题。本文以粤东城镇群区域中心城市汕头为例,选择具有传统优势的纺织服装产业,整合经济地理关系范式和演化范式的方法构建分析框架,运用访谈获得的企业关系数据和相关资料,分别对汕头纺织服装行业生产组织的历史路径以及当前在区域生产网络中的地位进行分析,提出汕头纺织服装行业未来进行升级的路径选择。本文在城市产业发展规划如何借鉴西方经济地理新理论范式方面进行了尝试性探索。     

The Effects of Universal Pre-K in Oklahoma: Research Highlights and Policy Implications

Oklahoma is one of only three states in the nation to offer a free pre-kindergarten (pre-K) program to all students in participating school districts on a voluntary basis. Fortuitous circumstances in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the state's largest school district, permitted an unusually rigorous evaluation of the pre-K program in Tulsa. Because four-year-olds beginning pre-K and five-year-olds beginning kindergarten were administered the same test in September 2001 and because strict eligibility cut-offs were applied, based on date of birth, it was possible to control for selection effects, in addition to gender, race/ ethnicity, school lunch eligibility, and precise date of birth. The evaluation showed strong positive effects of the pre-K program on children's language and cognitive test scores. Hispanic children benefited most from the program, and black children also showed sharp gains, especially when they attended full-day programs. The results are discussed in light of contemporary controversies regarding targeted or universal pre-K programs; full-or part-day programming; public school or multiple delivery sites; strategies for ensuring high quality, effective programs; and the need for rigorous program evaluations.     

MEASURING JUDICIAL PERFORMANCE IN TRIAL COURTS: CONCEPTUAL,EMPIRICAL, AND POLITICAL PROBLEMS*

This article explores some of the issues associated with evaluation of judicial performance. It is argued that measuring judicial performance in trial courts, as the basis for subsequent evaluation, is fraught with problems of definition, counting and interpretation. These problems result from the diversity of judges' work in trial courts, uncertainty as to the importance of speedy resolution of cases and the political environment within which judging takes places.     

Using the Internet to Support International Collaborations for Global Geography Education

This paper reports the results of a pilot study that evaluated a prototype instructional module designed to support international collaborative learning in the World Wide Web. The module, Migration, was tested at four higher education institu tions in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Students valued the opportunity to learn global geography by collaborating electronically in multinational teams, yet many students complained about confusing instructional procedures and uncooperative team members. The results of the module evaluation provide useful suggestions for managing pedagogical issues related to the process of online international collaborative learning.     

Environmental Policy in India

This article reviews the significant changes India has achieved in environmental policy in the pool 10 years, especially in terms of regulatory procedures and organizational structure. Despite these changes, however, environmental quality has continued to deteriorate, largely because a wide gap persists between the intent of policy and the actual achievement and because major problems have eluded serious attention. The paper analyzes major problems in the implementation of Indian environmental policy, with particular attention to policy design, policy analysis, and standard setting. Political problems are identified that underlie difficulties in policy formulation and implemetation, and strategies to improve implemetation are proposed.     

Bayesian Spatial Filtering for Hedonic Models: An Application for the Real Estate Market

This article presents a Bayesian method based on spatial filtering to estimate hedonic models for dwelling prices with geographically varying coefficients. A Bayesian Adaptive Sampling algorithm for variable selection is used, which makes it possible to select the most appropriate filters for each hedonic coefficient. This approach explores the model space more systematically and takes into account the uncertainty associated with model estimation and selection processes. The methodology is illustrated with an application for the real estate market in the Spanish city of Zaragoza and with simulated data. In addition, an exhaustive comparison study with a set of alternatives strategies used in the literature is carried out. Our results show that the proposed Bayesian procedures are competitive in terms of prediction; more accurate results are obtained in the estimation of the regression coefficients of the model, and the multicollinearity problems associated with the estimation of the regression coefficients are solved.     

Exploring normative whiteness: ensuring inclusive pedagogic practice in undergraduate fieldwork teaching and learning

Higher education commentators have become concerned about how learning and teaching praxis across the sector may unwittingly advantage White British (WB) compared to Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) students. Adopting critical race theory, this article explores these issues in relation to field teaching in geography and related subjects. It reports on primary data collected from students about to attend their first residential field trip. The research shows that WB and BME students approach their first field trip with diverse geographical experiences. The findings indicate a need to reflect critically on our fieldwork routines in order to promote inclusivity in field learning.