Party registration choices as a function of the geographic distribution of partisanship: a model of `hidden partisanship' and an illustrative test

The Public Choice literature has identified conditions in which voters in multi-candidate contests would have an incentive to vote strategically rather than vote for the most preferred candidate or candidates. In the US, where party registration and party primaries play a critical role in the electoral process—especially in states with closed primaries—the existence of multiple layers of elections across constituencies can induce strategic falsification of party registration that is tied to the geographic distribution of electoral strength. Following V. O. Key, we should expect that a long history of one party dominance in local elections should encourage voters to register in the party whose elections are most determinative of electoral choices, even if that is not the party with which they most identify. However, in many states, while politics may be dominated by one party locally, there may be real two-party competition for at least some offices at the state level and for the presidency.We use a `natural experiment' to view the link between party registration and voting for president and obscure judicial offices in order to test the hypothesis that, for whichever party is the minority party in the local unit, party registration will understate the voting support in presidential or other statewide elections, where that party's candidates have a realistic chance to win. In the modern South this hypothesis can be shown to imply that the relationship between Republican party registration and vote shares for Republican candidates for president or statewide office ought to be curvilinear. To test this and other related hypotheses, we examine data on political units (e.g. counties) with considerable variation in party registration and concomitant variation in the extent of one-party dominance of local politics by looking at county level data from North Carolina for the presidential elections and obscure judicial elections in 1984 and 1996. As hypothesized, for the North Carolina data the relationship between party registration and voting can best be fit by a quadratic function, but the strength of the quadratic term is much less for the 1996 data, reflecting the increase in Republican registration and the success of local GOP candidates in the 1990s.     

Women running for neighborhood offices in a Turkish city: Motivations and resources for electoral candidacy

This study is about how gender and local urban scales interact with each other to influence individuals' motivations and resources for political recruitment. The data came from interviews with twenty women who ran for and lost the 2004 local elections for their neighborhood office, muhtarlik, in Eskisehir, Turkey. Considering both individual and institutional factors and the neighborhood scale as important for women's candidacy for local offices, this paper relies on a “relational” view of citizenship while examining the mediating roles of the local scale for citizenship. My findings overall disagreed with the arguments that “women's interests” drive women to enter politics and that the local offices provide more opportunities for women's political recruitment. As women's roles and responsibilities had been changing across multiple spaces, they ran for elections to search for ways to practice their capacities in public arenas. Yet to the electorates, first, even women with high qualities for the office did not appear as the most qualified candidates. Second, most electorates tended to evaluate candidacy qualities in relation to the neighborhood office's weak status in Turkish political system and as an unskilled job. Third, they seemed to associate this “job” positively with men's traditional domestic role as the main breadwinner, consider women's charity and communal works as women's traditional care responsibilities, and to vote mostly for over-middle-aged male incumbents with locally embedded relations. Finally, women missed an opportunity for their candidacy by not transforming their local network-based assets into resources for candidacy.     

Leaders,dreams and journeys: Italy's new political communication

This article argues that the modernization of Italian political campaigns and their relationship with the media have led parties and candidates to reconceptualize both their symbols and their rhetorical visions. In contrast to the past, Italian political communication now appears clearly 'Americanized' and candidate-centred. Candidates evoke symbolic visions stressing leadership and personal characteristics instead of referring to the ideological and party symbols that dominated the old campaigns. As in the USA, dreams and journeys are now used in Italy as political images, and communication focuses on the construction of leadership. The author argues, however, that despite these similarities, the Italian personalization of politics differs in many respects from that found in the USA, above all in the lack of institutionalization of political symbols in Italy.     

Office location in Australian metropolitan areas: centralisation or dispersal?

As office activities have become even more centralised in A ustralia's largest cities they have also become more suburbanised. Taking account of the recent expansion of intermediate (mostly office-based) services and their locational requirements, this article examines the existing and potential strategic planning policies for achieving a better organised, more equitable, and efficient distribution of office activities in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth. Preference for policies based on suburban office centres represents a convergence of ideas. Some of the factors which make it difficult to implement these policies are examined. The role of the CBD and adjacent office areas, however, should not be underrated given the established patterns of office location behaviour and the changing structure and origin of demand for non-local market metropolitan offices.     

Neo-Conservatism and Presidential Nomination Reforms: A Critique

The neo-conservatives fault the post-1968 reforms in presidential nominations because, they argue, increased participation opportunities have weakened political parties and produced unrepresentative candidates who are unable to govern. They favor changes that would enhance the influence of party regulars and professionals because it is asserted that such participation would strengthen parties and encourage the selection of more popular and better qualified nominees. We argue that the critique suffers from several weaknesses: a failure to consider other plausible explanations for the effects attributed to the reforms; the use of inadequate or misleading measures; and the misuse of historical examples. In addition, we find that a key concept in their critique–professionalism– is not clearly defined, and that the several plausible definitions suffer from a variety of logical and analytic shortcomings. Although many political scientists     

CBC News Coverage of Canada's 2006 Liberal Party Leadership Candidates

Content-coded CBC evening newscasts are used in this article to examine reports on the eight candidates for Liberal Party leader in the weeks before the party's 2006 convention. In a sharp contrast to news reports on US presidential nominations, The National provided coverage balanced between the horse race and more substantive matters, including policy discussions and a candidate's personality and leadership qualities. But as with US nomination coverage, The National largely ignored trailing candidates, focusing nearly all its attention on the likely and plausible nominees. In terms of tone, The National provided “compensatory coverage,” where front-runners were treated more negatively than the candidates who were further back in the field.     

Recruiting,Grooming, and Reaping the Rewards: The Case of GOPAC in the 1992 Congressional Elections

Candidate selection is an important avenue for parties to influence elections, yet political scientists know little about which candidates are recruited to run and groomed to win. We hypothesize that parties focus their pre-general election activities on ideologically compatible candidates with high qualifications in competitive districts, but opt for more moderate candidates in districts with weak party support. We exploit a unique data source: FEC records indicating which candidates received instructional audiotapes from GOPAC, a political organization run by future House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Using these tapes as indicators of recruitment and grooming, we find that the party behaved pragmatically, recruiting conservatives in Republican districts, but setting aside ideological considerations elsewhere. We also find that personal qualifications of candidates played an inconsistent role, bolstering the likelihood of recruitment, but having no effect on GOPAC's support once the filing deadline had passed. Finally, we show that GOPAC's intervention was beneficial to the leader: candidates aided by GOPAC demonstrated greater loyalty to Gingrich while in office.     

Pursuing Moral Governance

A millennium ago in Northern Song (960–1127) China, Emperor Huizong initiated the “Eight Virtues of Conduct” in order to recruit morally upright officials. In place of the candidates’ skills in literary composition and understanding of the Confucian classics, this scheme adopted candidates’ moral virtues as their major criterion of selection. This paper analyzes how this scheme was implemented. It also shows that the rejection of certain genuinely virtuous nominees and the recruitment of some candidates who had exhibited objectionable conduct somehow compromised the emperor’s ideal. This analysis is followed by a discussion of the political and social implications of the scheme. Instead of perceiving this promotion channel as a means for Huizong and Chief Councilor Cai Jing to eliminate dissidents and install ideological conformity, the author argues that the scheme was an initiative of the emperor to counter the chief councilor’s dominance and alleviate factional conflicts. The final section examines the extent to which this scheme facilitated social mobility in the Song dynasty.     

论邓小平复出前后有关按劳分配的思想

1975年邓小平第二次复出后 ,即坚决主张实行按劳分配原则 ,调动各方面的积极性 ,但由于再次被打倒 ,他的这些思想和措施没有来得及贯彻落实。粉碎“四人帮”后 ,经济学界展开了有关按劳分配理论问题的大讨论 ,邓小平始终关注并坚持这一讨论 ,并提出了许多独具胆识的论述 ,其主要思想是肯定了按劳分配的社会主义性质 ,反对平均主义分配方式 ,反对按政治态度分配 ,主张搞物质鼓励 ,提出恢复奖金、稿费制度。邓小平提出的按劳分配思想 ,实质上是对社会主义本质的思考 ,是对我党以往“左”的政治经济理论和观念的纠正 ,是对劳动群众的物质利益的充分肯定     

Symbolic versus material concerns of rural consciousness in the United States

A potential explanation for the U.S. urban-rural political divide is a definition of rural consciousness comprised of three subdimensions: a feeling that ruralites are underrepresented in decision-making (“Representation”) and that their way of life is disrespected (“Way of Life”) – both symbolic concerns – and a more materialistic concern that rural areas receive less resources (“Resources”). However, it is unclear whether these different aspects of rural consciousness predict expected political preferences nationally, or whether they uniquely explain these preferences when evaluated alongside similar symbolic concepts like rural identity and moral traditionalism. We expect symbolic concerns (especially Way of Life) to particularly predict rural support for Donald Trump, Republican partisanship, and conservative ideology. Using a novel survey measure developed and tested across three original survey data sets, we find that only the symbolic subdimensions of rural consciousness positively and significantly correlate with Trump support, while the material subdimension either negatively correlates with Trump support or is not statistically significant. A similar tendency occurs when predicting symbolic ideology, except when controlling for moral traditionalism. Rural consciousness and its subdimensions do not significantly predict partisanship. These relationships hold for all respondents and for rural-only respondents. We conclude that rural consciousness may matter politically along symbolic dimensions, rather than materialistic grievances, for recent anti-establishment political support as opposed to standard left-right measures. We recommend that survey analyses of rural consciousness should separately analyze symbolic and materialistic aspects. Future studies should further investigate traditionalism vis-a-vis rural consciousness and explore non-rural people high in rural consciousness.     

Historicizing counterurbanization: In-migration and the reconstruction of rural space in Berkshire (UK), 1901–51

This article uses census data for Berkshire to argue that large-scale counterurbanization began much earlier than is generally recognized in some parts of southern England. This was not just movement down the urban hierarchy, which as Pooley and Turnbull have demonstrated was a long-term feature of England’s settlement system, but in some cases at least amenity-driven migration to rural areas of the kind increasingly recognized as a core component of recent counterurbanization. Despite a reduction of acreage Berkshire’s rural districts saw a 54% rise in population between 1901 and 1951. The sub-regional pattern of growth is assessed to gauge whether ‘clean break’ migration to the remote west of the county (which remained effectively out of commuting range from London throughout the period) was taking place, or whether counterurbanization was confined to the more accessible eastern districts. However, whilst population did increase in both west and east, it was in fact the central districts that grew most impressively. Three case study parishes are investigated in order to gauge the nature and consequences of counterurbanization at a local level. Professional and business migrants figure prominently, seeking to preserve and promote the rural attributes of their new communities, without however cutting their ties to urban centres. It is argued that migration to rural Berkshire in the first half of the twentieth century cannot adequately be described either as a form of extended suburbanization or an anti-metropolitan ‘clean break’. Rather, early counterurbanization marks the first stage on the long road to a post-productivist countryside, in which countryside becomes detached from agriculture, there is socio-economic convergence between town and country, and the ‘rural’ increasingly becomes defined by landscape and identity rather than economic function.     

Patronage,Power and Politics in Appleby in the Era of Lady Anne Clifford 1649–1689

Abstract

'The Electoral Management of the Yorkshire Election of 1784'. In the general election of 1784 the Fitzwilliam Whig candidates for Yorkshire declined the poll the night preceding the county election and conceded victory to the pro-Pitt nominees who received organisational support from the Yorkshire Association. This paper uses the Yorkshire county election to provide a detailed case study of electoral organisation and management. It outlines the national and regional political contexts of the election and examines the political and religious prejudices of the protagonists. Furthermore, it details the costs involved and explores the logistics of bringing the enfranchised freeholders, in England's largest constituency, to poll. This paper compares the organisations set up by both sides to direct the election, demonstrating the increasingly professional approach taken by election committees towards the end of the eighteenth century. It demonstrates how in this election the experienced and near-professional committee established by the Yorkshire Association overwhelmed the amateur committee of aristocrats convened by the Earl Fitzwilliam, prompting the latter to make significant changes to his electoral organisation and electioneering strategy for future elections.     

The Politics of Ego: Senatorial Front Office Presentation of Self

Many scholars have studied elected officials’ presentation of self, typically through examination of behavior in their districts, speeches, and Web sites. In this article, the authors examine a little-studied but telling element of U.S. senators’ presentation of self—the images they display to constituents and others visiting their offices in Washington, DC. Drawing on original data, we analyze both the total amount of items displayed as well as the number that focus on the senators themselves, and find that having run for president, being a Republican, and representing a state closer to Washington, DC, all predict a senator having more self-centered front-office décor, while having served more years in the chamber and hailing from a state closer to the nation's capital are associated with greater sheer number of items displayed in a senator's front office. This research demonstrates that political ambition, geography, and partisan affiliation are all related to senatorial ego. Studying senators’ presentation of self via their office walls offers important insight into the ways that elected officials view themselves and present themselves to a variety of audiences, thereby offering a glimpse of the ever-elusive link between the represented and the representative.     

中国城乡居民国内旅游消费水平和消费结构比较研究

国内旅游一直是中国旅游的主要构成部分,对拉动内需、促进全国经济增长的作用日益凸显,因此,研究中国国内旅游消费意义重大。本文依据2001-2008年《中国旅游统计年鉴》和《中国国内旅游抽样调查资料》,比较分析了中国城乡居民的国内旅游消费水平和消费结构,发现两者之间存在诸多差异,并对其原因进行了分析。在此基础上,提出了中国城乡居民国内旅游消费水平提升和消费结构优化的路径:提高城乡居民可自由支配收入、合理制定景区门票价格、优化旅游产品结构、加强旅游消费引导。     

Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe

Events such as Brexit and the Gilet Jaunes protests have highlighted the spatial nature of populism. In particular, there has been increasing political divergence between urban and rural areas, with rural areas apparently having lost faith in national governments. We investigate this divergence using data on over 125,000 EU citizens from the European Social Survey from 2008 to 2018. We show that people in rural areas have lower political trust than urban or peri-urban residents, with this difference clear for six different forms of political institutions, including politicians, political parties, and national parliaments. There has been divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe since 2008, although this is primarily driven by Southern Europe. While these results can partly be explained by demographic differences between cities and the countryside, divergent economic experiences, differences in values, and perceptions that public services are less effective outside of urban areas, there is a residual ‘rural effect’ beyond this. We argue that the polarisation of urban-rural political trust has important implications for the functioning of European democracies.     

民国初年广东乡村的基层权力机构

民国初年,受到辛亥革命冲击的广东乡村基层权力机构以各种方式恢复和重建。这些机构包括警局、区乡办事所和团局,而主要是团局。控制乡村基层权力机构的人物有士绅、商人、回乡官吏、退伍军官等,有军事经历、直接掌握武力者通常在这些机构中担任主角。由于广东政局动荡,省、县政府对乡村往往不能充分行使权力,乡村基层权力机构获得很大的独立性,有时甚至同政府、军队发生冲突。国民政府成立后,广东实行新县政,但民国初年形成的乡村基层权力机构的格局,在不少地区一直延续到40年代末。     

Argentine territorial nationalism revisited: The Malvinas/Falklands dispute and geographies of everyday nationalism

This paper is concerned with expressions of Argentine territorial nationalism with a specific focus on the Malvinas/Falklands dispute. Billig’s (1995) notion of banal nationalism has been widely applied as a means to understanding the ways in which national identities are learnt and reproduced by the populace, through a multitude of ‘mundane’ representations. More recently Billig’s (1995) thesis has been critiqued (Jones & Merriman, 2009) for its rigidity and inability to take account of the different ways these nationalisms are produced and received (Müller, 2008) within and outside of the nation-state. We build on these interventions by arguing that research into territorial nationalism should not ignore the wider temporal, spatial, political and everyday contexts in which such discourses emerge and are consumed. To illustrate this diversity we contend that territorial nationalism and, more specifically, the attention placed on the Malvinas dispute by the Argentine government has varied in its intensity, depending on wider political events and agendas in the South West Atlantic and Latin American regions. Secondly, through the use of interview extracts from a pilot study conducted with 20 young people in Buenos Aires, we suggest that Argentine territorial nationalism is not received uniformly across the nation-state and, rather, should be explored in its everyday contexts. These contexts take into consideration things like respondent’s geographical location, personal/familial relationships and generation, amongst other variables, in order to more sensitively appreciate Argentine territorial nationalism’s multifarious reception.     

Understanding the divergent development of the ministerial office in Australia and the UK

Large, politicised and separate ministerial offices are a feature of Australian government, while the UK ministerial office remains a hybrid unit which is part of the civil service. Using an historical institutionalist lens, and focusing on institutional factors, the article analyses why the separate partisan model evolved in Australia. It argues the Australian innovation was an historical compromise made in an unsuccessful attempt to move towards US-style political-administrative institutions. By contrast, the UK ministerial office has remained unified and hybrid, and, despite experimentation, resilient to structural and ideational change. There is ongoing pressure for more committed support for British ministers but strong forces have prevented moves towards larger offices, seen in the collapse of Extended Ministerial Offices. The article argues explanations for these divergent paths can be found in concepts such as critical junctures, path dependency and institutional resistance. The article contributes to an emerging comparative literature on advisory institutions.     

Teaching Canadian Literature

Abstract

Canada and the United States are two democracies on the North American continent sharing a common border, common British heritage, and for the most part a common language. At the same time, the two political systems abound with structural differences. Canadians, unlike voters in the U.S., cannot split their votes among various parties and candidates, and the single house Parliamentary system with tight party discipline renders an individual back-bench MP relatively powerless. The questions addressed by this article concern similarities and differences of Canadian and U.S. urban voters as they make electoral selections in these similar cultures and dissimilar, yet democratic, political systems. First, do social factors such as class, ethnicity, and religion provide similar bases for cleavage in Canada and the U.S.? Canadian society supposedly has a more easily defined class structure than the U.S. Does this difference carry over into the area of electoral choice? Do ethnicity and religion, as reported, differentiate party support in both countries? Second, individual factors such as the voter's party identification and impression of the party leaders (or presidential candidates) have been shown in the U.S. to be of dominant importance in predicting an individual's vote. What is the relative importance of these factors in determining voting choice in the two countries? The three-party Canadian context renders difficult any clear-cut comparisons to the two-party U.S., but useful avenues of speculation emerge. The NDP has a working-class base, but cannot attract the poor. Class does not significantly distinguish PC's and Liberals, the dominant parties, and on ethnicity and religion PC and NDP supporters bear a strong resemblance to each other. In the U.S. the expected associations obtain between Democratic vote and working class, Catholic religion, and foreign-born parentage. Party identification and attractiveness of the party leader, long recognized as important influences on voters in the U.S., seem from these data to play a similar role in Canada. Consequently, the individual electoral decision is dominated by more similarities than might be suggested from observing the differences in electoral and decision-making structures. Perhaps culture rather than political structure is dominant (within certain limits) in a voter's electoral decisions.     

“Reckless,cavalier, dismissive,petty and vengeful”?: The impact of municipal constituency change on candidate diversity

The demographic composition of electoral districts has an important influence on the identities of candidates because they affect the political opportunity structures of ethnic minorities and other marginalized groups. The 2018 municipal election in Toronto, Canada provides a unique opportunity to examine how changes to electoral districts impacted the participation of visible minority candidates. At the end of the initial nomination period, the right-wing populist provincial government of Doug Ford reduced the number of city council wards from 47 to 25, which also affected the boundaries of school board districts. Candidates and aspirants then had the opportunity to re-register in the new constituencies. This change constitutes a natural experiment that allows us to isolate the impact of district structure on the relationship between demographics and candidate ethnicity. Using logistic and Poisson regression modeling, we compare the proportion and number of Visible Minority and White candidates before and after consolidation. Contra expectations, we did not find any effect on minority candidates, but show some evidence that consolidation reduced opportunities for Whites. We trace this unexpected finding to the geographic patterns of ethnic settlement.