论安格斯·麦迪森对前近代中国GDP的估算——基于1600—1840年中国总量经济的分析

本文对麦迪森关于前近代中国GDP的估计数据和方法进行了分析。我们认为,麦迪森的估算总体上看过于简略,在统计技术上也存在诸多不足,且存在明显的自相矛盾之处。麦迪森认为,1500至1820年中国人均GDP折合1990年美元为600美元,我们认为大约高估了50%—90%。对于前近代中国占世界GDP的比重,麦迪森大约高估了三分之一。     

热词

国家统计局1月18日发布数据,2020年中国国内生产总值(GDP)为1015986亿元,首次突破100万亿元大关。这是中国经济发展历程中重要的里程碑,意味着我国经济实力、科技实力、综合国力又跃上一个新的台阶。     

改革开放前中国经济社会发展绩效评价

<正>对1952~1978年经济社会发展状态的量化是研究改革开放前中国经济社会发展问题由定性分析转向定量分析的基础。根据经济发展、社会发展、经济遗产以及外部环境四个方面构建的由26个基础指标构成的经济社会发展绩效评价体系,并对包括中国在内的22个发展中国家1952~1978年的经济社会发展水平进行的测度和排序,从总     

中国和美国贸易禁运(1950～1972)

朝鲜战争爆发后,美国开始对中国实行全面贸易禁运,企图阻碍中国的经济发展,但并未取得预期效果。判断美国贸易禁运是否阻碍了中国经济的发展并减弱了参加朝鲜战争的能力可以考察中国1950～1959年的GNP或GDP。把1959年作为考察截止日期是因为那一年西欧和日本实质上已放弃了贸易禁运而急切地恢复了对华贸易。1950～1952年中国经济取得了令人瞩目的成就,没有受到贸易禁     

1949～1952年中国弱势群体研究

弱势群体一般是指那些在特定历史时期,由于某些障碍及缺乏经济、政治和社会机会而在社会上处在不利地位的、被国家和社会纳入救助范围的社会群体。1949～1952年,中国弱势群体主要包括灾民、失业者、妓女、乞丐和孤老病残等,其存在原因首要的是自然地理因素,其次是社会转型因素与历史遗留问题。弱势群体的情况一定程度上决定了新中国社会救助制度的初始选择。     

北京奥运会对中国经济的影响

北京奥运会对中国经济的影响是深远的,巨大的,对经济总量的促进是显而易见的,但我们国家的GDP总量高居世界第二位,因此它所带来的经济效益不可能影响到中国经济的基本面。奥运会对经济的影响主要表现在三个方面,即直接经济效应,间接经济效应和衍生经济效应,三个因素相辅相成共同左右着奥运经济的走向。     

新中国对外经济技术援助政策的演进及评价

<正>1950～1978年中国对外经济技术援助政策处于形成与曲折发展阶段,在帮助受援国争取和维护民族独立、发展民族经济等方面发挥了重要作用。这一阶段中国向受援国提供的经济技术援助主要是无偿赠予或无息贷款、成套项目援助以及技术援助等形式,很少有双向的经济技术合作和互动,在经济层面上表现出明显的单向性。     

对我国个体经济状况的分析

中华人民共和国成立之初,存在五种经济成分：社会主义的国营经济、私人资本主义经济、农民和个体手工业者的个体经济、半社会主义性质的合作社经济、国家与私人合作的国家资本主义经济。但由于1953年开始的三大改造及1958年的人民公社化运动,改变所有制结构;及至“文化大革命”期间,割资本主义的尾巴,追求纯之又纯的公有制形式,致使社会经济发展所必需的个体经济、私营经济几乎趋向于无。据国家统计局提供的数字,个体经济在工业总产值中所占的比重由1952年的20．6％下降到1975年的O．8％。1978年,国有工业产值占工业总产值的776％…     

中国经济体制改革的成就与经验

正1978年中共十一届三中全会以来,中国经济体制改革成就主要体现在三个方面:建立和发展了社会主义市场经济基本经济制度;社会主义公有制经济的基层生产单位已经和正在改造成为适应社会主义市场经济要求的市场主体;价格已经并正在越来越大的程度上成为中国社会生产的调节者。中国在建立和发展社会主义市场经济体制方面积累了丰富的有益经验:在党的社会主     

市场经济环境下文物管理体制和机制的思考

<正>改革开放30多年,中国经济发展如日中天,社会发展日新月异。GDP稳步提高,经济总量大幅增长。人们在满足物质生活的情况下,更需要满足精神文化生活。然而,在以经济建设为主,经济效益第一的市场经济环境下,文化建设特别是文物管理工作发展落后,文物管理体制严重滞后。     

外国直接投资的空间经济特征研究

本文采用相关分析的方法,从宏观经济的角度分析了一定的经济区域吸收和输出FDI的数量与该地区经济发展水平和经济的外向性的关系,同时还对中国大陆吸收外商直接投资的地域联系做了相关分析,提出了FDI空间经济的三个特征,即整体性、外向性、近域性。     

Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States

Abstract.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in other years. For some periods where direct TFR estimation was applied, age-specific births used in the numerators of fertility rates must be estimated from partial data. Combined with Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the authors’ estimated TFRs contribute an uninterrupted time series of national and state TFRs for Australia from 1901 to 2011.     

Changes in the Structure and Distribution of Russian GDP in the 1990s

The author, a noted Japanese observer of Soviet and post-Soviet economic affairs, examines System of National Accounts data for the Russian Federation in order to analyze changes in the structure and distribution of Russian GDP during the six-year period commencing in 1989. The study, based in part on first-hand investigation in Moscow in late 1995 and on hitherto unpublished raw data, represents an initial attempt to examine the methodology underlying the compilation of Russian System of National Accounts statistics, which the Russian Government began to publish only recently. A distinct focus is on GDP by sector of origin and by end use, and on distribution of income. 9 tables, 22 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O47, P24.     

Frozen Film and FOSDIC Forms: Restoring the 1960 U.S. Census of Population and Housing

In this article, the authors describe a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center (MPC), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the National Archives and Records Administration to restore the lost data from the 1960 Census. The data survived on refrigerated microfilm in a cave in Lenexa, Kansas. The MPC is now converting the data to usable form. Once the restored data are processed, the authors intend to develop three new data sources based on the 1960 census. These data will replace the most inadequate sample in the series of public-use census microdata spanning the years from 1850 to 2000, extend the chronological scope of the public census summary files, and provide a powerful new resource for the Census Bureau and its Research Data Centers.     

From the government to the university: Efforts to write national history in the early Republic

ABSTRACT

From the controversies surrounding the National History Bureau in the early Republic to the short-lived National Historiography Office at Peking University, the traditional undertaking of writing dynastic history experienced many crises during the transformative Republican era. The National History Bureau was merged with Peking University as part of Cai Yuanpei’s efforts to separate the field of national historiography from the government and shift it toward universities, as well as his efforts to further reform the university system. In comparing the staff members and aims of the National History Bureau and the National Historiography Office of Peking University, the latter clearly represented an update in terms of concepts and methods. The purpose of the History Bureau’s shift from “dynastic” to “popular” history, which apparently intentionally imitated the German academic system, was to render national historiography and other related research independent of the government, cast off the traditional moral burden of “condemning evildoers and praising the virtuous,” and gradually move forward on the path of specialization for national historiography within the university system. The National Historiography Office’s various editing plans amply demonstrate this tendency. The many winding detours that the “national history” efforts took between dynastic and popular history both expressed the entanglement of new and old ideas within academic circles, and revealed the contemporary struggle between the government and universities.     

20世纪30年代城市居民的疾病与死亡——以南京、北平、广州为中心

本文根据国民政府主计处统计局编印的《统计期讯—卫生》,围绕着死亡疾病类型和死亡者的身份属性、职业背景以及生理年龄,考察20世纪30年代的南京、北平和广州城市居民的疾病与死亡问题。文章认为从死亡疾病分析,20世纪30年代南京、北平和广州居民的死亡疾病涉及到传染性疾病、消化系统、呼吸系统、心脏系统以及神经系统等诸种疾病,其中一些非传染性疾病或者非法定传染性疾病的威胁较大。从死亡年龄与职业分析,南京、广州和北平三地居民死亡年龄分布情况虽然存在地域性差异,但是死亡年龄主要集中在0—1岁、1—4岁、40—60岁和60岁以上的年龄段,不同年龄段所染患疾病也表现出一定年龄特征;职业差异对城市居民健康的影响也不容忽视。文章认为,这些事实逻辑实际上是提醒我们要谨慎对待目前这一领域的某些认识规范。     

人民币国际化及其对币缘政治的影响

当今世界有两个货币现象引人注目,一个是欧元危机,另一个是人民币币缘政治影响的扩大。文章总结了扩大人民币币缘政治影响所取得的成效,探讨了进一步提升的路径。将人民币币缘政治影响的扩大总结为使用范围扩大、跨境贸易中结算额增加、与其他货币的互换额攀升、可直接交易国家增多、离岸清算中心数增加、国际地位提升、国际化指数提高7个方面;提出了进一步提升人民币币缘政治影响的6点建议：①促进经济持续稳定发展,增强我国的综合实力与国际竞争力,②积极开展国际贸易合作,③遵循周边→区域→全球的顺序有序推进,④以地缘优势共建“一带一路”倡议,⑤充分发挥香港、中国（上海）自贸区的作用,⑥借力亚投行的平台,优化国际金融格局。     

Identifying Functional Regions in Australia Using Hierarchical Aggregation Techniques

This paper continues our work focused on developing a new socio-economic geography for Australia such that the chosen spatial aggregation of data is based on an analysis of economic behaviour. The underlying hypothesis is that the development of a geographical classification based on underlying economic behaviour will provide new insights into critical issues of regional performance, including unemployment differentials, the impact of industry, infrastructure and changes in local public expenditure on local labour markets. As a precursor to detailed work on the 2006 Census of Population and Housing data, we establish the proof of concept in this paper of the Intramax methodology using 2001 Journey-to-Work data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the state of New South Wales. The functional regionalisation generated by the Intramax method is then tested using ABS labour force data. We compare 2001 ABS Census of Population and Housing data aggregated by the ABS labour force regions to the same data aggregated using our functional regions. The results demonstrate the potential value of this technique for the development of a new geography.     

Regional Occupational Employment Projections: Modeling Supply Constraints in the Direct‐Requirements Approach*

Detailed industry‐occupation employment forecasts are an important class of regional labor market information produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In theory, the forecasts should improve the national, interregional, and intertemporal matching efficiency of labor markets. But the efficiency argument is dependent on the quality of the forecasts. The methodology used to produce the projections is still fundamentally a demand‐requirements approach that implicitly assumes that labor supply is infinitely elastic for every occupation. This paper examines the validity of that assumption and evaluates a demographically based labor supply module as an adjunct to the current methodology.     

The politics of numbers: explaining recent challenges at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has experienced several significant challenges in recent years, including a declining operating budget, criticisms of its technical capability and concerns about political interference. In-depth interviews were conducted with senior ABS and Treasury Department officials to obtain their perspectives on the causes of the agency’s difficulties. Interview data were interpreted using frameworks from the political science literature on delegation, including the principal-agent paradigm, models of bureaucratic strategy and the public service bargains approach. The study finds that the principal-agent perspective does not help to explain the ABS’s difficulties, but that problems of administrative strategy and tacit bargains between the government and the ABS have contributed significantly to the agency’s challenges. The findings provide insights into the politics of official statistics, and shed light on the evolving role and status of expertise in Australian politics and government.