MEASURING THE EFFECT OF COST VARIATION ON INDUSTRIAL OUTPUTS*

ABSTRACT. This paper introduces the household interactive variable input-output (HIVIO) model to measure the effect of cost variation on industrial outputs. The model produces a variety of cost elasticities that separate out impacts on industrial prices, imports, and outputs, with “own” and “cross” elasticity components. Like the conventional input-output multipliers, these cost elasticities can be useful parameters to evaluate the substituting behavior of firms and consumers. By using the 1980 Korean input-output transactions table, we find the wage and import price effects on industrial prices, outputs, and import demands.     

TESTING THE SPATIAL SCALE AND THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN REGIONAL MODELS (A CONTRIBUTION TO SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS)*

This article addresses the problem of specification uncertainty in modeling spatial economic theories in stochastic form. It is ascertained that the traditional approach to spatial econometric modeling does not adequately deal with the type and extent of specification uncertainty commonly encountered in spatial economic analyses. Two alternative spatial econometric modeling procedures proposed in the literature are reviewed and shown to be suitable for analyzing systematically two sources of specification uncertainty, viz., the level of aggregation and the spatio-temporal dynamic structure in multiregional econometric models. The usefulness of one of these specification procedures is illustrated by the construction of a simple multiregional model for The Netherlands.     

FRAGILITY OF STANDARD INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES BY A RESPONSE SURFACE BASED METHOD

National and international regulatory standards require industrial risk assessment, taking into account natural hazards including earthquakes, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). Seismic fragility analysis of industrial components may be carried out similarly as what has been done for buildings, even though some peculiar aspects require the development of specific tools. In the present paper a contribution to the definition of a rational procedure for seismic vulnerability assessment of standardised industrial constructions in a probabilistic framework is given. The method covers a range of components of the same structural type. Seismic reliability formulation for structures is used. Both seismic capacity and demand are considered probabilistic with the latter assessed by dynamic analyses. The application example refers to shell elephant foot buckling of unanchored sliding tanks. A regression-based method is applied to relate fragility curves to parameters varying in the domain of variables for structural design.     

基于产业群视角的河南省产业配套能力分析

产业配套能力是企业在选择投资区域时最关注的外部条件。吸引投资是促进河南省经济发展的重要途径,利用产业配套能力来评估投资环境显得尤为重要。本文利用《2007年河南省投入产出表》,采用主成分分析法,识别出河南省目前存在18个具有内在经济联系的产业群。通过对各产业群的经济关联和空间分布的分析,发现林木产业群、耐火材料产业群是河南省配套能力最完善的产业群类型,煤电产业群和烟酒制品产业群的配套能力也相对完善,其余各产业群由于存在较低的产业关联度或空间分布过于分散,导致配套水平偏低。     

HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE IN EXTENDED INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS: A COMPARATIVE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT At the regional level in-migrant and indigenous workers are likely to have different income levels and consumption propensities. The effects that these differences have upon a local economy are explored within an extended input-output modeling framework. Two iterative input-output models, due to Miernyk et al. and Blackwell, are recast as systems of simultaneous equations and are shown to produce identical results. A detailed analysis is made of model structure and a method is outlined for the decomposition of income multipliers. Empirical versions of the two models, for Boulder and Cork, are reconstructed with data from the original studies and are used to make comparisons of the two local economies.     

Developing Direct Displacement-Based Procedures for Simplified Loss Assessment in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering

Various loss assessment methodologies have been proposed and developed over the past decades to provide risk assessment on a regional scale. There is an increasing need, however, to provide engineers with practical tools for building-specific loss assessment. Recently, progress has been made towards probabilistic loss models such as the PEER framework. However, as comprehensive probabilistic methodologies could be too complex for practicing engineers, this article presents a simplified probabilistic loss assessment methodology that builds on a direct displacement-based framework. The methodology is tested via examination of two RC frame buildings and encouragingly shows similar results to the PEER methodology.     

REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE SOVIET ECONOMY A MODEL AND ANALYSIS*

A multiregional econometric model of the Soviet economy is presented. It consists of 1,391 equations, with time-series information for 1965-1980. In conformity with the number of the country's republics, 15 input-output tables are incorporated. The discussion includes the methodological framework, the structure and equations, theoretical justification for the interaction between the econometric and input-output components, data and estimation, and forecasting results.     

Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Model Specifications to Predict Commuting Flows

This study is devoted to empirical and modeling aspects on how characteristics of spatial structure influence commuting flows. Within a doubly-constrained framework, results from a competing-destinations formulation are evaluated and compared to results from the traditional gravity model. The evaluation depends critically upon the specification of within-zone journeys-to-work. Specific labor-market characteristics are found to be significant to explain how workers are absorbed in diagonal elements of the trip-distribution matrix. We also find that the parametric specification of the accessibility measure is important, and that the competing-destinations formulation is superior to the traditional gravity model.     

产业集群的识别与选择分析——基于陕西省产业集群的研究

产业集群现已成为发展区域经济和增强区域竞争力最有效的途径之一。然而,如何识别和选择产业集群则是困扰决策者和研究者的主要技术问题。本文在分析国内外产业集群相关研究方法的基础上,以陕西省为例,综合应用LQ法和基于投入产出表的主成分分析法,尝试性地进行了区域产业集群的识别与选择研究,结论显示LQ法和基于投入产出表的主成分分析法可以很好地体现产业集群的"空间联系"和"功能联系"。     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES APPROACHES TO MODELING INTERSECTORAL AND INTERCOUNTY EMPLOYMET LINKAGES IN RURAL REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. The performance of five criteria for identifying significant interregional labor market linkages is compared. The criteria suggest differential model specifications based on the implicit tradeoff between parsimony and specification bias. Models were specified using: Akaike's final prediction error; Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion; an input-output model; Aoki's time series algorithm; and a combined input-outputi/time series approach. Models of the changes in monthly employment for twelve industries in six regions in northeastern Utah were specified using each criterion. Models based on Schwarz's criterion and the input-output criterion were preferred to those based on other criteria.     

Critical Issues on Probabilistic Earthquake Loss Assessment

Probabilistic loss modeling can be used to develop risk reduction measures, such as the identification of regions more prone to human and economic losses, or to develop financial mechanisms to transfer the earthquake risk from local governments to the private sector. This study addresses several critical issues in probabilistic loss modeling, and provides recommendations depending on the intended final use of the risk results. Modeling issues related to convergence in probabilistic event-based analysis; consideration of epistemic uncertainties within a logic tree; generation of different types of loss exceedance curves; and derivation of risk maps are thoroughly investigated. The Metropolitan Area of Lisbon is used to explore these issues, and it is demonstrated that different assumptions in the loss modeling process can lead to considerably different risk results. Furthermore, the findings and recommendations of this study are also relevant for institutions that promote the assessment of earthquake hazard and risk, such as the Global Earthquake Model Foundation.     

MEASURING THE DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF A TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH*

The Multiregional Variable Input-Output (MRVIO) model is introduced to measure the development impact of a transportation system. The MRVIO model is a theoretically flexible, computationally simple, and cost-responsive model. Under the MRVIO model, regional input-output coefficients, trade coefficients, and trade flows become cost responsive and easy to compute. The MRVIO model is employed to measure the development impact of the Arkansas waterway during the period of 1974 to 1978. In the study, the U.S. economy is disaggregated into 3 regions and 35 industrial sectors. The MRVIO model estimates the economic conditions of these 3 regions with and without the waterway in terms of industrial output, income, employment, and trade flows.     

Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling

The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.     

THE PROBABILITY OF THE IMPROBABLE: SOCIETY–NATURE COEVOLUTION

This article aims to show how evolutionary theory, social‐metabolism and sociological systems theory can be utilized to develop a concept of society–nature coevolution. The article begins with a conception of industrialization as a socio‐metabolic transition, that is, a major transformation in the energetic and consequently material basis of society. This transition to industrial metabolism was essential for the emergence and maintenance of industrial societies and is at the same time the main cause of global environmental change. The article proceeds by asking what the notion of society–nature coevolution can potentially contribute to understanding environmental sustainability problems. An elaborated concept of coevolution hinges on (1) a more precise and sociologically more meaningful concept of cultural evolution and (2) understanding how cultural evolution is linked to the environment. Next I briefly outline major lines of thought and controversies surrounding the idea of cultural evolution. The direction proposed here commences with an abstract version of Darwinian evolution, which is then re‐specified for social systems, understood as communication systems, as developed by Luhmann. The re‐specification implies three important changes in the theoretical outline of cultural evolution: first, shifting from the human population to the communication system as the unit of cultural evolution and to single communications as the unit of cultural variation; second, shifting from transmission or inheritance to reproduction as necessary condition for evolution; and third, shifting from purely internal (communicative) forces of selection towards including also environmental selection. Adopting elements from the work of Hägerstrand and Boserup, the primary environmental selective force in cultural evolution is conceptualized as the historically variable constraints in human time–space occupation. In the conclusions I tie the argument back to its beginning, by arguing that the most radical changes in human time–space occupation have been enabled by major socio‐metabolic transitions in the energy system.     

中国与欧盟产业强关联复杂网络系统的比较研究

基于投入产出表构建中国和欧盟细分产业的强关联网络,运用社会网络分析法从整体、子群及个体三个层级对中欧的产业网络进行比较分析,以探讨中国产业复杂网络发展趋势、规律以及阶段定位。研究发现：①产业强关联网络的发展具有显著规律性,欧盟产业强关联网络发展形态是中国的高级演化模式;②欧盟产业间的紧密度及群体聚集趋势均优于中国,但中国产业间的资源传输效率表现更好;③中国当前正处于分配性及生产性服务业与制造业换位的转型期,但尚未达到欧盟所处的以服务业高度集聚作为网络枢纽以带动全行业发展的成熟稳定期;④中国和欧盟的区块网络均呈现近似“核心-边缘”的等级层次结构,分块网络从“单核心”驱动向“双核心”共振驱动更迭,但欧盟比中国更早实现双核心驱动模式。     

Knowledge-Based Performance Assessment of Existing RC Buildings

One of the most challenging aspects of the seismic assessment of existing buildings is the characterization of structural modeling uncertainties. Recent codes, such as Eurocode 8, seem to synthesize the effect of structural modeling uncertainties in the so-called confidence factors that are applied to mean material property estimates. The confidence factors are classified and tabulated as a function of discrete knowledge levels acquired based on the results of specific in-situ tests and inspections. In this approach, the effect of the application of the confidence factors on structural assessment is not explicitly stated. This work presents probabilistic performance-based proposals for seismic assessments of RC buildings based on the knowledge levels. These proposals take advantage of the Bayesian framework for updating the probability distributions for structural modeling parameters based on the results of tests and inspections. As structural modeling parameters, both the mechanical material properties and also the structural detailing parameters are considered. These proposals can be categorized based both on the amount of structural analysis effort required and on the type of structural analysis performed. An efficient Bayesian method is presented which relies on simplified assumptions and employs a small sample of structural model realizations and ground motion records in order to provide an estimate of structural reliability. As an alternative proposal suitable for code implementation, the simplified approach implemented in the SAC-FEMA guidelines is adapted to existing structures by employing the efficient Bayesian method. This method takes into account the effect of both ground motion uncertainty and the structural modeling uncertainties on the global performance of the structure, in a closed-form analytical safety-checking format. These alternative proposals are demonstrated for the case study structure which is an existing RC frame. In particular, it is shown how the parameters for the safety-checking format can be estimated and tabulated as a function of knowledge level, outcome of tests, and the type of structural analysis adopted.     

ON THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THE SUPPLY-DRIVEN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON JOINT STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of the plausibility of the supply-driven input-output model from an empirical standpoint. We suggest that requiring production coefficients to remain perfectly fixed during an application of the supply-driven input-output model is unnecessarily restrictive given the extensive use of approximation methods in mathematics, economics and regional science. Simulations with the supply-driven version of an input-output table for a representative region are shown to result in changes in the corresponding production coefficients well within conventional tolerance levels.     

A Multivariate Model for Spatio‐temporal Health Outcomes with an Application to Suicide Mortality

This article considers models for multivariate mortality outcomes (e.g., bivariate, trivariate, or higher dimensional) observed over a set of areas and through time. The model outlined here allows for spatially structured and white noise errors and for their intercorrelation. It also includes possible temporal continuity in such types of error via structured temporal effects. An extension to spatially varying regression effects is considered, as well as the option of nonparametric specification of priors for spatial residuals and regression effects. Allowing for spatially correlated intercepts or regression effects may alter inferences regarding the changing impact on mortality of socioeconomic or environmental predictors. The modeling framework is illustrated by an application to male and female suicide mortality in London, focusing on the impact on suicide of deprivation and social fragmentation (“anomie”) in the 33 London boroughs during three periods: 1979–83, 1984–88 and 1989–93. Suicide trends by age group are also considered and show considerable differences in the trends in impacts of deprivation and social fragmentation.     

INDIA,THE GREAT DIVERGENCE,AND THE WRECKAGE OF MODERNITY

Research over the last two decades on the economic divergence of Europe and China before the nineteenth century has stimulated much recent scholarship investigating similar diverging paths between Europe and India. Following the lead of Kenneth Pomeranz, this work focuses on the demographic, ecological, and geographical factors in this divergence and argues for the direct comparability of the most economically advanced parts of Europe with such places as Gujarat and Mysore in Mughal India, which showed considerable proto‐industrial development before their relative economic decline and deindustrialization in the nineteenth century. The book under review approaches this topic by deploying a modified Marxian‐Weberian framework and draws on extensive research in Indian and British archives to argue that both Gujarat and Mysore might have embarked on paths of sustained economic growth through natural commercial expansion and deliberate mercantilist statecraft hindered by the East India Company. Despite resurging interest in Marx, much recent work in global economic history highlights the limitations of modernization theories drawn from a long tradition of Western social science indebted to the theories of Marx and Weber.