THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

Are Spells of Unemployment Longer in Nonmetropolitan Areas? Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence

I use nonparametric and semiparametric proportional hazard models to examine whether individuals resident in nonmetropolitan areas experience lower per period rates of exit from unemployment following job loss than metropolitan area residents. Results show that between 1989 and 1993 per period cumulative rates of exit from unemployment were slightly higher in nonmetropolitan areas, mainly due to nonmetropolitan–metropolitan differences in individual characteristics and local economic conditions. Employment density is found to have a positive association with rates of exit of unemployment in metropolitan areas but not in nonmetropolitan areas.     

CHANGES IN THE METROPOLITAN AND LARGE CITY POPULATIONS OF THE USSR: 1979-85

This paper investigates the post-census growth of metropolitan areas and large cities in the USSR from 1979 to 1985. The Soviet population continues to be increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas and large cities, and although suburbanization occurs within metropolitan areas, a striking feature is that all central cities continue to grow and typically contain the vast majority of the metropolitan population. This reflects the fact that individual large cities continue to loom large, despite policies to limit their growth. Although the growth rates of large cities have slowed, so have those of smaller towns, and a merging of growth rates by size class is occurring.     

THE EFFECTS OF TAXES,EXPENDITURES, AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. Data for 28 metropolitan areas over a 15-year period are used to determine the impacts of government spending, taxes, and public infrastructure on total employment and disaggregated employment. After carefully controlling for the government budget constraint we find that taxes are negatively related to total employment and education spending is positively related to total employment. Nevertheless, we find that it is difficult for metropolitan areas to influence the composition of their employment with government tax and expenditure policies. Moreover, at current levels of public infrastructure, marginal changes in infrastructure have no strong effect on employment.     

The Impact of Property Taxes and Property Tax Classification on Business Activity in the Chicago Metropolitan Area

The City of Chicago and the inner suburbs grew much more slowly than the outer suburbs in recent decades. In the central county of the metropolitan area, commercial and industrial property is "classified," in that it is assessed at a higher ratio of market value than residential property. Classification is not used in the surrounding suburban counties. The empirical analysis finds evidence consistent with the notion that property tax classification contributes to differential rates of economic growth. High property tax rates lead to significantly slower growth rates for employment, commercial property, and industrial property.     

Population Suburbanization in American Metropolitan Areas, 1940–1970

Using census tract data, this paper shows that massive changes have occurred in density patterns of American metropolitan areas since 1950. Suburbanization of population has involved both large-scale decongestion of central parts of metropolitan areas and also large-scale outward deconcentration. Many metropolitan areas no longer have clearly distinguishable density patterns in their central and peripheral parts. At the present time, patterns of population distribution across metropolitan areas are becoming increasingly similar. Furthermore, current suburbanization patterns by census tract do not relate strongly to suburbanization patterns as measured by growth rates of crude central city and suburban rings in metropolitan areas. Finally, the paper shows that “density craters” in the center of many metropolitan areas may become more pronounced, although they may not extend outward.     

Demographic and budgetary influence on the geography of the poll tax: alarm or false alarm?

"The paper examines the influence of demographic change and the adaptation of local authority budgets on the level of poll tax between local authorities. The changes introduced by the Local Government Finance Act [in the United Kingdom] are argued to make almost all the possible variation between areas depend upon demography and local decisions on expenditure. Means of assessing local expenditure need are outlined and a consistent measure is developed which is used to estimate the relative contributions of changing need, tax base, new expenditures and grants over the period 1974-85 and up to 1991. 'New realism' in local authority spending is argued to combine with demographic change to allow radically reduced potential poll tax levies to be estimated than have been forecast by other sources. The reductions are particularly significant in inner London and many metropolitan districts."     

Patent Places: Size Matters

In this paper I investigate the United States urban system of technical advance by analysis of metropolitan patent data. Residents of metropolitan areas obtain most of the patents awarded to Americans and the largest areas predominate, signifying that urbanization externalities facilitate invention. The advantages of large areas arise from lopsided concentrations of technologically intensive manufacturing and an uneven distribution of well-educated people. Location with respect to the traditional manufacturing belt also plays a role. Metropolitan residents in the manufacturing belt remain the most industrious inventors. The contribution of leading educational and research institutions to technical advance is manifest in small urban centers and outside the traditional manufacturing belt.     

Spatial Analysis of Residential Prices in Istanbul

The purpose of this paper is to examine the spatial distribution of housing prices at the metropolitan and at the district level of Istanbul. At the metropolitan level, the most important factors which affect housing prices are sub-market, floor area and sea view. At the district level, housing prices vary from district to district according to locational, socio-economic and property characteristics. High-income sub-markets have higher coefficient of determinations and more significant variables than low-income sub-markets. Furthermore, the results suggest that planned districts have higher housing prices; thus, restructuring squatter areas and revitalizing inner city areas provide not only benefits to individuals but also higher tax revenues to the city.     

THE NET FISCAL IMPACT OF SELECTED FEDERAL BLOCK GRANT PROGRAMS*

This paper examines the net fiscal benefits of various federal grants and taxes paid to finance them. Net, effective tax rates are calculated for all county areas in the U.S. for seven measured grant programs, and the distributions of such tax rates are examined in conjunction with the median family incomes of the county areas. Inferences about the progressivity (or regressivity) of the grant programs are made, as well as inferences about the horizontal equity of the grant programs through the use of a new class of index numbers. It was found that more progressive grant formulas, which provide greater rates of subsidy to areas with lower median family incomes, also tend to be less horizontally equitable.     

基于居民出行大数据的我国都市圈识别及其分布格局

都市圈是大城市发展到一定阶段的产物,当前都市圈空间范围界定还存在争议,本文梳理了都市圈的概念和内涵,采用手机信令出行数据识别了全国都市圈的空间分布格局。分析发现,我国大部分都市圈仍处于发育阶段,当出行率阈值为 1% 时全国识别出 27个都市圈。都市圈的分布格局与经济发展水平密切相关,经济发达地区的都市圈数量多、分布密集,如东部沿海和城市群地区。中心城市的人口和经济规模,以及圈域出行距离影响了都市圈的空间范围和圈内联系程度,圈域出行规模与中心城市人口规模呈正相关,外围城市向中心城市的出行率与中心城市经济首位度呈正相关,且符合距离衰减规律。     

都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001-2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。     

PRODUCTIVITY AND THE DENSITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL*

ABSTRACT We estimate a model of urban productivity in which the agglomeration effect of density is enhanced by a metropolitan area's stock of human capital. Estimation accounts for potential biases due to the endogeneity of density and industrial composition effects. Using new information on output per worker for U.S. metropolitan areas along with a measure of density that accounts for the spatial distribution of population, we find that a doubling of density increases productivity by 2–4 percent. Consistent with theories of learning and knowledge spillovers in cities, we demonstrate that the elasticity of average labor productivity with respect to density increases with human capital. Metropolitan areas with a human capital stock one standard deviation below the mean realize no productivity gain, while doubling density in metropolitan areas with a human capital stock one standard deviation above the mean yields productivity benefits that are about twice the average. These patterns are particularly pronounced in industries where the exchange of information and sharing of ideas are important parts of the production process.     

Spatial Analysis of Physicians' Offices with Respect to Population and Hospital Beds in Istanbul

Maldistribution of medical staff is a subject of criticism in many developing countries. This paper investigates the spatial distribution of physicians' offices with respect to population and hospital beds in Istanbul. The spatial distribution of physicians' offices is investigated with respect to socio-economic and locational characteristics of the districts. The results show that only a few districts benefit from an amazing growth in the concentration of physicians' offices while the periphery of the city, where mostly low-income people live, has a lower physician/population ratio than the metropolitan average. In addition, the spatial distribution of physicians offices with respect to population and hospital beds is investigated by the use of regression analysis within time. According to the results, while there was some relationship between the physicians' offices and the hospital beds in the 1980s, there was no relationship with population or hospital bed distribution in the 1990s. Increasing the number of factors which affect the distribution of physicians and testing the model in other metropolitan areas in order to obtain more general results are suggested for further research.     

People,Space and Place: a Multidimensional Analysis of Unemployment in Metropolitan Labour Markets

It is becoming increasingly apparent that, in order to understand a range of socio-economic outcomes, research needs to be focused on a multi-dimensional approach that accounts for individual characteristics and behaviours together with locality and activity within space and place. Within labour market analysis there is a need to situate empirical analysis within a conceptual framework that considers both the assets of individuals within the labour force and the social and local labour market contexts in which they find themselves. Using a broad notion of employability, this paper develops an analysis of unemployment in Australia's metropolitan labour markets. Specifically it uses a combination of individual survey data and aggregate labour market data to consider the associations between these multi-level factors. It finds that, while individual characteristics are important in understanding unemployment in metropolitan areas, it is equally the case that the strength of spatially distinct labour markets also plays a role. The paper reaches the conclusion that, while contemporary labour market policy tends to focus on individual characteristics, there is a need to widen the policy understanding of labour market outcomes so that other broader contexts, including the impact of space and place, are also seen as being influential.     

THE STRUCTURE OF METROPOLITAN FACTOR AND PRODUCT MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. In this study we use a translog profit function and iterate seemingly unrelated regressions to estimate a system of factor demand and output supply functions for metropolitan economies. Our sample includes all metropolitan areas defined by the Census in 1977 for the period 1962 to 1982. Estimation shows that all price elasticities are elastic and that the signs are as expected. These results hold true for virtually all model specifications. Our findings indicate that federal, state, and local tax policies have significant impacts on factor demand and output supply. Public investment plays a positive and significant, but small, role in increasing output and in complementing other factors, although this influence has declined over time. Additionally, capital provided by the private sector has a substantially larger impact on output and employment than does capital provided by the public sector.     

Spatial organisation and local unemployment rates in Metropolitan Adelaide: significant issue or spatial fetish?

This paper examines variations in local unemployment rates within metropolitan Adelaide and relates them to patterns of residential segregation, selection and allocation processes in rental housing and variations in accessibility to job opportunities. Adult male unemployment rates are highest in the inner and older suburbs characterised by areas of cheap privately-rented accommodation. Adult female and junior unemployment rates are generally highest in outer suburbs with high percentages of dwellings rented from the South Australian Housing Trust, and remote from job opportunities. Implications for housing, metropolitan planning and transport policies are considered. Although in the absence of an overall increase in the demand for labour such policies may be regarded as merely ameliorative, they are still worth pursuing if the opportunities to do so arise.     

HOW DO DIFFERENCES IN PROPERTY TAXES WITHIN CITIES AFFECT URBAN SPRAWL?*

ABSTRACT We develop a duocentric‐city model and show that the ratio between the property tax in the suburbs and in the center has an ambiguous impact on the size of the city. We test this model by using a dataset of effective property tax rates which we developed using GIS techniques for central cities and suburbs in 445 urbanized areas. Results from the empirical analyses suggest that a lower property tax rate in the suburbs as compared to the central city is associated with more expansive urban growth and a greater level of decentralization of population and employment.     

Working women in the city and urban wage growth in the United States

Although the female labor force participation rate of women has been steadily rising in the United States, there is substantial variation across cities. Previous cross‐county studies find that gender inequality in employment reduces economic efficiency hindering growth. This result is examined in a regional context, across metropolitan areas in the United States. Throughout multiple model formulations including instrumental variables approaches, higher initial female labor force participation rates are positively related to subsequent wage growth in metropolitan areas between 1980 and 2010. Specifically, every 10 percent increase in female labor force participation rates is associated with an increase in real wages of nearly 5 percent.     

Assessment of risks on a territorial scale for archaeological sites in İzmir

This article focuses on natural, institutional, and human factors threatening archaeological sites. A methodology is developed for assessing risks to multiple assets on a territorial scale. The methodology consists of hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, and risk assessment. Hazard assessment involves identifying hazard exposure areas and measuring the frequency and intensity of each hazard. Vulnerability assessment incorporates examining physical, managerial, and contextual vulnerabilities of structures and remains. Geographical information systems are utilised for producing hazard, vulnerability, and risk maps. An overall picture of risks for an entire territory allows decision-makers to make informed decisions at an upstream level to limit further degradation and ensure the preservation of archaeological assets. The methodology was tested by conducting a comprehensive study in ?zmir (Turkey), where 229 archaeological sites located in 21 metropolitan districts were studied. The proposed approach provides the promise of applicability across a range of historic environments.