ON THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THE SUPPLY-DRIVEN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON JOINT STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of the plausibility of the supply-driven input-output model from an empirical standpoint. We suggest that requiring production coefficients to remain perfectly fixed during an application of the supply-driven input-output model is unnecessarily restrictive given the extensive use of approximation methods in mathematics, economics and regional science. Simulations with the supply-driven version of an input-output table for a representative region are shown to result in changes in the corresponding production coefficients well within conventional tolerance levels.     

COMPENSATION FOR COMMUTES IN THE LAND AND LABOR MARKETS: SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA*

ABSTRACT. Recent research suggests that in nonmonocentric cities compensation for commutes takes the form of both lower housing prices and higher wages. This paper develops a random utility model that predicts the probability of an actor choosing to commute between each residence and job in a metropolitan area conditional on the observed location of housing units and job sites. The model allows commuting time, origin-specific amenities, land prices, destination-specific amenities and wages to influence actors' choices. We estimate the model using maximum likelihood and generalized least squares techniques and data on commuting between each of 38 origin and 15 destination jurisdictions in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The empirical results show that, all else equal, a one percent increase in commuting time reduces the probability that a route (origin-destination combination) will be chosen by almost five percent. Origin-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into land prices and destination-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into wages. Desirable residential amenities include school quality and a low ratio of day to night population. Desirable workplace amenities include a large share of white collar jobs and a high density of employment.     

EVALUATING THE AGGREGATE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF CANADIAN METROPOLITAN AREAS

Few attempts have been made to develop and test a conceptual framework for the comparative analysis of urban spatial structure and growth. This paper offers one aggregate approach as well as a series of empirical tests based on Canada's 27 largest urban areas. Six composite indices are introduced: population densities, rates of change, intraurban population redistribution, mobility rates, incidence of low-income populations, and degree of social polarization. Regression analyses reveal that differences among urban areas in spatial patterning and structural change are consistent with the hypothesized effects of city size, age, transport usage, social heterogeneity, production base, and physical setting. Yet immense regional and intraurban diversity remains. No single model of urban structure is sufficient to capture this diversity. On enregistre peu de tentatives pour mettre au point et tester un cadre conceptuel qui puisse servir à I'analyse comparative de structure spatiale et de croissance urbaine. Get article offre une approche g/oba/e ainsi qu'une série d'analyses empiriques basées sur les 27 territoires urbains canadiens les plus grande. Six indices composes servent aà l'analyse: densité de population et taux de changement de ces densités, redistribution et taux de mobilité de la population intra-urbaine, incidence de revenus faibles et importance de la polarisation sociale. Les analyses de régression démontrent que les différences dans l'arrangement des espaces et le changement des structures entre les zones urbaines sont en accord avec les effets supposés de taille urbaine, d'âge, d'utilisation du transport, d'hétérogénéité sociale, de base de production et de cadre physique. Cependant, une très grande diversité régionale et intraurbaine de-meure, II n'existe pas un seul modèle de structure urbaine capable d'englober cette diversité.     

THE EFFECTS OF METROPOLITAN JOB GROWTH ON THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME*

ABSTRACT. This article examines how a metropolitan area's job growth affects its income distribution, using CPS data from 1979 to 1988. Metropolitan growth increases the poorest quintile's income by a greater percentage than for the average family. Metropolitan growth also increases the value of property owned by the richest quintiles. Economic development programs to increase local growth will have a net progressive effect if the cost per job created is low, and these costs are financed by personal taxes. But programs with a high cost per job, or financed by cutting welfare, will reduce the net income of the poorest quintile.     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE SUPPLY OF HOUSING*

ABSTRACT As the housing stock in a city is duplicated, developers must devote greater amounts of resources to the provision of infrastructure. If the production of infrastructure is characterized by decreasing returns to scale, this will cause the price of developable land to increase. The conditions under which an upward-sloping supply curve for housing will result are discussed. Using cross-sectional data for U.S. cities from 1973 to 1982, it is shown that land prices fail to increase with the quantity of construction and that the price elasticity of the supply of housing is infinite.     

A NOTE ON THE STABILITY PROPERTY OF SPATIAL COMPETITION*

ABSTRACT. Our study extends the standard comparative static analysis to allow for dynamic aspects of equilibrium in spatial competiton. We investigate dynamic stability properties via the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. Nontrivial equilibria in the so-called Löschian, Hotelling-Smithies, and Greenhut-Ohta models are shown to be stable even under heterogeneous cost conditions among competing firms, conditions not considered hitherto. We can thus provide powerful support to the comparative static analyses which can only be developed via equilibrium concepts with stability properties.     

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. For many years, regional scientists, economists, and geographers have been unable to clarify the influence of economic diversity on unemployment and instability in regional economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article presents plausible theory, proper units of analysis, valid measures, and more inclusive models of the diversity-stability relationship. The findings are generalizable because the sample includes most metropolitan areas in the U.S. The empirical analysis estimates the influence of diversity, employment concentrated in unstable industries, population size, growth rate, and control variables on unemployment and employment instability during the 1972–88 period. The results indicate that metropolitan areas which are more diverse experience lower unemployment rates and less instability than areas which are less diverse.     

EXCLUDING THE POOR FROM LOW INCOME HOUSING PROGRAMS: THE ROLES OF STATE AGENCIES AND USAID IN JAMAICA*

This paper investigates why low-income housing agencies in Jamaica do not accomplish their self-imposed progressive mandates to assist large numbers of poor people. To expose what produces gaps between policy and practice, the analysis focuses on how housing programs are organized, both in Jamaica's two largest state agencies and in USAID. The crucial organizational features include the housing agencies' sources of funding, reliance on the private sector, and associated motives and interests. Among the three agencies, a set of inter-related forces block low income access to housing assistance: (1) most of the policy influences of international development agencies such as USAID, (2) the pervasiveness and increased penetration of market logic into low-income housing programs, (3) state agency bureaucratization and careerism, and (4) an elitist neglect of the housing needs of the poor. Prejudices against the poor based on the belief that they do not repay housing loans are not justified by empirical evidence, much less by the fact that the programs were explicitly created to improve their housing conditions.     

THE STRUCTURE OF METROPOLITAN FACTOR AND PRODUCT MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. In this study we use a translog profit function and iterate seemingly unrelated regressions to estimate a system of factor demand and output supply functions for metropolitan economies. Our sample includes all metropolitan areas defined by the Census in 1977 for the period 1962 to 1982. Estimation shows that all price elasticities are elastic and that the signs are as expected. These results hold true for virtually all model specifications. Our findings indicate that federal, state, and local tax policies have significant impacts on factor demand and output supply. Public investment plays a positive and significant, but small, role in increasing output and in complementing other factors, although this influence has declined over time. Additionally, capital provided by the private sector has a substantially larger impact on output and employment than does capital provided by the public sector.     

THERMOLUMINESCENCE AUTHENTICITY MEASUREMENTS ON CORE MATERIAL FROM THE BRONZE HORSE OF THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN MUSEUM OF ART

The Bronze Horse of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York, suspected in recent years of being a modern forgery, is shown by thermoluminescence to have been made in antiquity. Besides the standard thermoluminescence measurements, a new technique was used, utilizing single, highly radioactive grains of zircon separated from the core material of the horse. The zircon grains, because of their high radioactivities (100–200 ppm) and subsequent large internal alpha doses (60–170 krad), are negligibly affected by γ irradiations given to the horse during previous examination. The results show the horse was made 2000 to 4000 years ago, consistent with a work of classical antiquity.