A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

Migration,age, and education: a cross-sectional analysis of geographic labor mobility in Japan

"This paper presents some new empirical evidence on the determinants of prefecture-to-city migration in Japan, using a model based on the human capital-search theoretic approach." Several hypotheses relating the rate of migration to age, education, distance moved, and earnings are tested, and the applicability of the theoretical framework to the analysis of labor migration in Japan is evaluated. Data are from the 1970 census and the 1968 Employment Status Survey.     

The information effects of origin on migrants' job search behavior

"Migrants are generally assumed to gather specific information about the destination primarily through physical contact, or through family, friends, and acquaintances. In this paper, I propose an additional source of information: similarities between origin and destination labor markets. Data from the 1983-1987 PSID [Panel Study of Income Dynamics] are used in a two-stage least squares model of postmove search duration in the U.S. Rural-to-urban migrants (except for rural Southerners) exhibit significantly lower search duration than other groups, controlling for productivity-related characteristics and postmove earnings. In addition, employment growth differences between origin and destination are found to be better predictors of search duration than are differences in average earnings."     

Income Transfers Alone Won't Eradicate Poverty

Even in the current economic situation, in developed countries, rhetoric about cutting "poverty" is misleadingly outmoded—because it implicitly suggests that government income transfers can be the vehicle for achieving substantial reductions in poverty. Almost all Americans already live far above subsistence poverty: most because of their earnings, and the rest because of government transfer programs. This decline in material poverty is obscured by weaknesses in how the official U.S. poverty measure counts income. What is now called poverty is really "income inequality." Reducing income inequality is also a vitally important social goal, but it cannot be accomplished through income transfers alone. The authors argue that, although income transfers have a role to play in lessening the impact of material deprivation, real progress in raising incomes will require building the human capital of the economically disadvantaged. This means both increasing the earnings capacity of lower-income workers and reducing the number of female-headed families.     

楚人源于关中平原新证——以清华简《楚居》相关地名的考释为中心

楚人(族)的起源地及其迁徙路线问题,是一个长期困扰楚史研究者的艰难研究课题。清华简《楚居》的面世,为该问题的解决提供了可能。本文在既有楚人源于关中平原观点的基础上,指出《楚居》12个早期地名皆在今陕西省境内:"畏阝山"即蒉山,在蓝田县境;"穴穷"即镐京,在西安市西;"乔山"即峣山,在蓝田县与商州区之间;"爰陂"即原陂,在蓝田县境;"汌水"即灌水,今赤水河;"方山"即华山,今华山山脉;"盘"即蕃,"京宗"即郑荆,皆在华县境;"哉水"即兹水,今灞河;"屈"即冢,今商州区境;"鄀"即上鄀,在洛河、丹江上游;"夷屯"即丹阳,今商州区境。这些地名位置的落实,为楚人源于关中平原的观点提供了新的证据,为楚文化之谜的破译奠定了新的历史地理基础。     

MIGRATION AND SELF‐SELECTION: MEASURED EARNINGS AND LATENT CHARACTERISTICS*

ABSTRACT Research in regional and labor economics has established that economic incentives play a significant role in the process of internal migration. The most common approach is to view migration as a form of human capital investment undertaken by individuals who expect to benefit from the standpoint of increased earnings. One of the central concepts in these models is self‐selection. Individuals who self‐select the option of migration tend to differ from the nonmigrant population in ways that are not measured in most data sets. The contribution of this paper is in its distinction between two aspects of migrant selection. On one hand, some workers possess unmeasured traits that might simultaneously affect their wages and their propensity to engage in risky human capital investment such as migration. On the other hand, measured earnings might exert a direct effect on migration. Based on samples of employed Swedish males and females at two points in time, this study seeks first to examine whether migration between the two periods occurs in the presence of correlation between unmeasured factors present in both earnings during the first period and the subsequent decision to migrate. Second, it looks for an explicit role of earnings per se in the migration decision. Results of the study provide support for selection based on unmeasured traits for both genders. For females, there is also evidence of selection based on measured earnings.     

Underurbanisation and the zero urban growth hypothesis: diverted migration in Albania

The author challenges the hypothesis "that the mode of production accounts for the specific forms of urbanisation under socialism and the slow urban growth observed...[and emphasizes instead] the effects of planning in the traditionally organised command economy." It is suggested that strict migration policy is a pivotal factor in achieving zero urban growth. "A case study focusing on patterns of diverted migration and the growth of non-urban settlements on the outskirts of the Albanian capital, Tirana, illustrates how the proposed explanations may help to re-interpret the particulars of urbanisation under orthodox socialist rule."     

Swahili women since the nineteenth century: theoretical and empirical considerations on gender and identity construction

This paper provides an analysis and update on the theoretical discussion about the link between gender and identity and uses a group of Swahili women in eastern Africa as an example of how this link works in practice. The first part of the study provides a brief overview of gender theory related to the terms "gender" and "identity." It is noted that gender is only one aspect of identity and that the concept of gender has undergone important changes such as the reconceptualization of the terms "sex" and "gender." The second part of the study synthesizes the experiences of Swahili women in the 19th century when the convergence of gender and class was very important. The status of Muslim women is reviewed, and it is noted that even influential women practiced purdah and that all Swahili women experienced discrimination, which inhibited their opportunities for socioeconomic mobility. Slavery and concubinage were widespread during this period, and the participation of Islamic women in spirit possession cults was a way for women to express themselves culturally. The separation of men and women in Swahili culture led to the development of two distinct subcultures, which excluded women from most aspects of public life. The third part of the study looks at the experiences of Swahili women since the 19th century both during and after the colonial period. It is shown that continuity exists in trends observed over a period of 200 years. For example, the mobility of Swahili women remains limited by Islam, but women do exert influence behind the scenes. It is concluded that the socioeconomic status of Swahili woman has been shaped more by complex forces such as class, ethnic, religious, and geographic area than by the oppression of Islam and colonialism. This study indicates that gender cannot be studied in isolation from other salient variables affecting identity.     

秦汉简牍中的“致书”与“致籍”考辨

致书和致籍是汉简中的一类重要的文书,目前对它的研究尚未取得一致的意见。本文认为作为通关文书的致书或致籍是津关收到的有关门部门对所管过关人员的情况通报,或是事先对过关人员过关时的登记,是他们检验、放行的凭证,符传与致书并用,津关案验符传与致书的记载无差,方得出入。     

清代云南铜矿垄断经营利润的考察

清政府对云南铜矿实行高度垄断经营的政策,即以低于商品自由贸易市场数倍的价格收购矿铜,又以相对较高的价格将矿铜批发给各铸钱局,通过统购统销来赚取价差,获得了大量垄断利润"铜息"。低价矿铜用于铸钱,极大地降低了铸钱成本,各铸钱局获得了丰厚的"铸息"。不仅如此,各铸钱局利用商品货币市场铜钱价格的高昂,通过出售铜钱或搭放兵饷等途径,最大限度地扩大"铸息"。"铜息"是清政府对云南铜矿实行垄断经营的直接利润,"铸息"是铜矿垄断经营的间接利润,是铜矿垄断利润向铸钱利润的转移。     

A dynamic model of interregional migration flows in Great Britain

"The purpose of this study is to construct a dynamic model of migration in Great Britain based on time-series data developed from the records of the National Health Service Center Register (NHSCR) on male migrants of working age between 1975 quarter 2 and 1979 quarter 2." A two-stage methodology "was developed...which differed in many important respects from the techniques adopted in previous studies of time-series migration flows. Regional push and pull factors were derived on the basis of the revealed preferences of migrants, using a two-stream gravity model, and then subsequently related to vectors of regional characteristics, within a general dynamic setting. Factors affecting the overall volume of migration nationally were separated out from those determining the internal direction of migration flows, and factors affecting distance sensitivity. Despite weaknesses in the available data set, the results achieved...suggested many interesting dynamic responses, implying lengthy and important lags in the estimated relationships."     

Religion, Society, and the Historian

In a secularized age, the study of past religion encounters problems both of empathy and categorization, and the student who derives his understanding from current belief and practice may be in a worse position than the detached observer. Yet historians have never before taken religion so seriously, while wider interest in the history of Christianity is growing. "Religious History" is sometimes said to have taken the place of "Ecclesiastical History." But both disciplines flourish, and the difference between them has been overstated. Historians can learn from social scientists questions about religion which, confined within the safe boundaries of period, they have not always had to face. The social functions of religion have been threefold, religion acting as a precipitant, a bond, and a source of legitimation. It has been said (by an anthropologist) that the study of religion has recently lived off the conceptual capital of its ancestors. The understandings of the social meaning of religion advanced by three of these "ancestors," Marx, Durkheim, and Weber, are examined. Only Max Weber is found to provide helpful guidance to the social historian of religion, particularly with his key concept of "elective affinity."     

庄子“真人”思想考论

庄子《大宗师》集中出现了四则有关＂真人＂的论述。＂真人＂思想具有丰富的内涵。作为庄子自身理想人格的画像,＂真人＂等同于＂至人＂。真人一旦上升到＂道＂的层面,又等同于＂神人＂。真人思想的矛盾性源自《庄子》一书内容的复杂性。作为天道哲学的真人,其思想源自《道德经》、《山海经》等典籍;作为生命哲学的真人,源自《黄帝内经》、《周易》等。由后者形成一种＂葆真＂的生命哲学观,产生了积极而深远的影响。     

The spatial extent of agglomeration economies across the wage earnings distribution

We investigate the spatial extent of agglomeration economies across the wage earnings distribution using economic mass (total employment) in four distance bands around each individual’s establishment in a quantile regression framework. We control for observable and unobservable individual and establishment characteristics. Remaining endogeneity in the model is assessed with a set of instrumental variables. Results indicate a positive effect of economic mass on wage earnings up to 25 km away from the establishment. The spatial extent of agglomeration economies is similar across the wage earnings distribution. However, increases in economic mass shift the wage earnings distribution in a nonsymmetric way.     

The politics of prevention. Safe sex

In the Philippines, preventing AIDS and promoting condom use means taking on the Roman Catholic Church, which asserts condom/AIDS promotion is a subterfuge for promoting the acceptability of condom use for contraception. The Catholic Bishops Conference believes the solution lies in the formation of "authentic sexual values." The Secretary of Health in the Philippines considers that all Filipinos must fight AIDS and dispassionately hands out condoms to everyone everywhere he goes. Secretary Flavier claims he is being "condomized without trial." There are 368 identified carriers of HIV infection of which 68 have AIDS. Other estimates are of 35,000 HIV-infected persons. A study commissioned by Kabalikat recently found that 30,000 men aged 18-45 years in Manila have 2 or more sexual partners and do not use condoms. Some find the controversy is really about Flavier's aggressive style. Senator Francisco Tatad considers Flavier a "moral pollutant," while Senator Ernesto Maceda sees Flavier as acting to drown out the Church's powerful voice. Meanwhile, the health secretary finds that the publicity encourages open discussion. Cardinal Jaime Sin has declared in a large public gathering that the enemies of the Filipino family must not be allowed to win. Birth control, according to Senator Tatad, is "oppressive to the moral and religious beliefs of the Catholic majority." There is a plan to include AIDS education in high schools, which the Senate is currently investigating because of the religious consequences. The health secretary's plan is to promote a higher standard of living though family planning for a small family size. The target is to reduce fertility rates from an average of 3.9/women of reproductive age to 3.2 and to increase contraceptive acceptors from 42.5% to 52%. An independent poll reports 76% practicing birth control. Family planning has been a policy for a while, but it lacked commitment and political will. The family planning campaign will be launched in rural areas where the control of the church is not as strong. The educational emphasis has been supported by local governments and private groups such as DKT which perform street plays, of which an example is given. The Church is being challenged to set up natural family planning clinics in every diocese.     

读《吴雁南评传》

《吴雁南评传》以大量翔实、可靠的文献资料及口述史料为基础,通过纵向的、横向的、历史的、现实的比较研究,力图就吴雁南由一个普通的专科学生成长为我国著名的历史学家的人生轨迹进行描述、探讨,并就其在太平天国史、辛亥革命史、中国近代社会思潮史、儒学与传统文化等诸多领域内取得的具有国内领先水平的重大的突破性学术成就与治学经验及其教育成就与思想做出全面、系统、深入的介绍、总结、探究,就其学术成就的地位、价值与意义做出深刻、公允的剖析、评价。该《评传》是关于吴雁南研究的开拓性、创新性成果。     

The production of diaspora: Algerian emigration from colonialism to neo-colonialism (1840-1970)

The extensive literature on migration within a Marxist framework tends to focus on the difficulties migrants face in labor markets of "receiving countries." This paper adopts a different approach, arguing that more attention should be paid to the historical production of diaspora, rather than the continued analysis of the problems of "integration." It suggests that articulation of modes of production theory set within the transition from colonialism to neo-colonialism offers an appropriate means to reverse this analytical lens; further, that to understand contemporary "post-colonial" concerns such as hybridity or migrancy, we need an economic approach which is itself hybrid. An historical narrative exploring the processes of emigration and immigration between Algeria and France shows the emergence of an industrial, and more particularly an automobile diaspora.     

《庄子》内二篇文法抉微

《庄子》文章脉络断续隐约但讲究结构艺术,《齐物论》《养生主》是内篇中最长和最短的二篇,《齐物论》结构宏复,层次井然,局部问题的论述亦讲求逻辑。《养生主》小巧精致,每章各言一事而又相互勾连。以寓言阐发养生之道颇含巧思却能浑然天成。     

Net migration estimation in an extended,multiregional gravity model

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.     

Franchising in Government

In 1995, the federal government started five pilot Franchise Funds (FF), to study their feasibility for improving productivity through the introduction of competition and capitalizing on specialization and economy of size. This paper describes the current approach to the use of FT. It suggests that the relationship between the FF and those that contract them for service resemble what economists call "principal-agent relations" and what they study as "agency theory." The paper concludes that the vast research on agency relations may help the development of a theory or a conceptual framework for studying and managing FF and contracts with them.