A dynamic model of interregional migration flows in Great Britain

"The purpose of this study is to construct a dynamic model of migration in Great Britain based on time-series data developed from the records of the National Health Service Center Register (NHSCR) on male migrants of working age between 1975 quarter 2 and 1979 quarter 2." A two-stage methodology "was developed...which differed in many important respects from the techniques adopted in previous studies of time-series migration flows. Regional push and pull factors were derived on the basis of the revealed preferences of migrants, using a two-stream gravity model, and then subsequently related to vectors of regional characteristics, within a general dynamic setting. Factors affecting the overall volume of migration nationally were separated out from those determining the internal direction of migration flows, and factors affecting distance sensitivity. Despite weaknesses in the available data set, the results achieved...suggested many interesting dynamic responses, implying lengthy and important lags in the estimated relationships."     

Gains and losses, outcomes of interregional migration in the five Nordic countries

This paper examines the outcome of interregional migration in various aspects from the migrants' perspective. It is based on a survey, including 6 000 interregional migrants in the five Nordic countries. The results indicate that interregional migration leads to a positive outcome for most migrants and few people seem to be forced to make decisions including painful tradeoffs. Motives have an effect on what aspects of outcome migrants are satisfied with. The influence of individual migrants' characteristics on migration outcome revealed few significant effects. Migrants claimed to be most satisfied with living conditions and less satisfied with the livelihood after moving. To be satisfied with social conditions turned out to be crucially important for the general outcome of migration.     

The assumption of equilibrium in the analysis of migration and interregional differences: a review of some recent research

"This paper questions the plausibility of the assumption of interregional equilibrium in recent research into migration and the valuation of amenities in the United States. It is shown that it is difficult to develop a satisfactory explanation for continuing net migration which is compatible with the equilibrium assumption, and that recent relevant research generally fails to support the idea that the U.S. economy is in equilibrium. The association of higher rent levels with in-migration is explained as a short-run phenomenon. If the spatial economy is in disequilibrium, then the valuations of amenities assuming equilibrium will be biased, being probably too low in areas of net in-migration and too high in areas of net out-migration."     

The effects of internal migration on regional wage and unemployment disparities in Canada

"This paper examines the role of the migration mechanism in the context of a general interregional factor flow adjustment model. Using an estimation technique, which pools cross-section and time series data, the direct effects of migration flows and regional investment on the growth of regional wages and unemployment [in Canada] are examined. The results suggest that migration has a small, but significant impact on regional wages and unemployment rates."     

Voters on the move: The political effectiveness of migration and its effects on state partisan composition

Recent population forecasts issued by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that by 2030 Sunbelt migration could result in two-thirds of all Americans living in the South and West. What's more, 30% of all Americans could live in California, Texas, and Florida (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005). Regardless of whether such high levels of continued Sunbelt migration occur or other patterns emerge, population movement will have electoral implications as the composition of migration streams change the balance of party identifiers at both origins and destinations. To illustrate how migration streams can exhibit very different levels of ‘political effectiveness,’ this research substantively addresses three key issues under-examined in the current literature: 1) the ability of migration to both reinforce and dilute party strength, 2) the changes in partisanship at the origin and destination of migration streams effected through processes analogous to ‘packing’ and ‘cracking’ in electoral redistricting literature, and 3) the importance of migration selectivity. This research uses an innovative, albeit far-from-precision method to suggest how recent U.S. migration trends may portend changes in Republican and Democratic partisanship. Using 2000 Presidential election exit polls by state, along with 1995–2000 PUMS migration data, individual party identification is inferred from individual migrant characteristics. This research calls attention to and argues for research to address the highly complex relationships of migration with electoral geographies.     

BIMSTEC and emerging patterns of Asian regional and interregional cooperation

The first phase of India's Look East Policy in 1991 was exploratory in nature and tinged with more idealism and optimism to break out of the South Asian region which was stagnating in economic growth. The second phase of India's Look East policy took stock of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 to 1998 and China's growing linkages with the Southeast Asian region. In 1997, mainly through the diligence of Thailand, a new grouping that could act as a bridge between Southeast and South Asia was established called BIMSTEC. The objective of the paper will be to argue that BIMSTEC balances India's engagement with Southeast and South Asia but it also counters China's growing influence among ASEAN members, in particular Myanmar. Thailand is the driving force behind BIMSTEC activities as this would enhance its trade hub status and engagement policy with Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam (CMLV) states.     

Gao and Igbo-Ukwu: Beads, interregional trade, and beyond

Recent excavations in the city of Gao in eastern Mali have uncovered a sizable assemblage of imported and locally produced beads which are similar in many ways to the beads excavated at the site of Igbo-Ukwu in Nigeria. The similarities between the two assemblages suggest that they are indicative of interregional trade along the River Niger. As the likely source of many of the beads is Fustat in Egypt, Gao may well have been the middleman between Igbo-Ukwu and the former site. This route, it is argued, is more satisfactory than a direct east-west trade across the Sudannic zone, which has been argued for previously as a channel of international trade for Igbo-Ukwu.     

Gender earnings and poverty reduction: post-Communist Uzbekistan

Women get less of the material resources, social status, power and opportunities for self-actualization than men do who share their social location – be it a location based on class, race, occupation, ethnicity, religion, education, nationality, or any intersection of these factors. The process of feminization of poverty in Central Asia and Uzbekistan is intimately connected to the cultural and institutional limitations that put a ceiling on women’s involvement in economic activity. This article attempts to study and explore gender in the context of poverty reduction in Uzbekistan, the most populated state of Central Asia, to understand the ways and manner in which poverty and other forms of deprivation demand women’s participation in variety of contexts. The study is primarily an empirical one and is based on an extensive sociological investigation in the field.     

Maritime interregional interaction in Micronesia: Deciphering multi-group contacts and exchange systems through time

Recent theoretical perspectives focusing on interregional interaction can help explain the evolution of western Micronesian societies. Data from ethnohistoric accounts, oral traditions, and more recently, archaeological investigations, document the interactions between culturally and linguistically distinct island groups in the northwest tropical Pacific. Here, I look at the nature and emergence of these interaction networks between the islands of Yap and Palau in the Western Caroline Islands of Micronesia and the implications they had for transforming indigenous lifeways, exchange systems, and sociopolitics. In particular, I discuss a major facet of these interaction spheres—the Yapese quarrying of their famous stone “money” disks in the Palauan archipelago.     

Incorporating the effects of spatial structure in discrete choice models of migration

Discrete-choice theory and logit models are evaluated for their usefulness in analyzing migration patterns in a zonal system. The authors "argue that spatial effects and more specifically the relative location of zones are not taken into account in such analyses. We, therefore, introduce a measure of spatial structure and advocate its usage as a predictor of migration in such models. In an example of intrametropolitan migration in Toronto [Canada], we demonstrate that this variable is not only significant but also it improves the performance of all the other variables with the greatest impact on the distance between zones. In addition, inclusion of this variable improves the overall performance of the model in terms of residuals."     

The determinants of labor migration in Egypt

The factors which affect individual decisions with regard to geographic movement in Egypt are examined and the magnitude in which each factor exerts its influence on aggregate geographic labor supply adjustments is estimated. The spatial unit used in the study is the administrative region, of which there are 25. No effort is made to esimate the impact which migration has had on the origin or destination region. The migrant will presumably choose that destination which, given his information, the migrant thinks will be best. The model which is employed attempts to explain gross interregional migration without the explicit introduction of an individual decision function. Rather, migration is related to certain aggregate proxy variables. Among the independent variables employed in the analysis are (origin and destination) income, education, urbanization, and population. The other explanatory variable used is the distance between region i and region j. The migration measure employed refers to cumulative male migration which occurred prior to 1960; the independent variables are defined for a given point in time (1960). The independent variables explain a reasonably large percentage of the variance in migration between regions in Egypt. All variables were significant at the 5% level or better. The findings indicate that distance acts as an important impediment to migration. Migration is away from low wage and toward high wage regions, which may have contributed to a narrowing of regional wage differentials. Migrants are attracted to regions which have large populations and to regions which have a large percentage of urban to total population. A tendency exists for migrants to come from regions with large populations. There is also some tendency for migrants to come from regions which have a relatively large urban population. Migrants do not appear to come from regions with high educational levels.     

Feedback loops analysis of Japanese interregional trade, 1980-85-90

This paper examines the hierarchy of intra- and inter-regionaltrade flows within the Japanese economy over the period 1980–85–90.The methodology provides an opportunity to explore links betweenfeedback loops analysis and the extraction of a hierarchy offlows using ideas from superposition principles. The resultinganalysis of trade feedbacks may be seen to reflect the economicphenomena of horizontal and vertical trade specifications. Whilethe process is explored analytically, the results are presentedusing visualization to help identity the different permutationmatrices presenting the hierarchy of trade feedback loops.     

The specifics and spatial structure of circular migration in Russia

Abstract

This article aims at distinguishing recurrent population movements within the territory of the Russian Federation between urban localities of different sizes and rural areas in connection to the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, and de-urbanization. Incomplete urbanization and the strong polarization of socio-economic space in Russia have resulted in two powerful contradictory population flows: centrifugal seasonal sub- and de-urbanization and centripetal labor migration from rural and small towns to large urban centers. The article discusses three forms of recurrent population mobility in Russia: (1) daily commuting of urban and rural inhabitants within metropolitan areas; (2) commuting to large cities and their suburbs for long-term employment intervals (weekly, monthly, etc.), (3) second-home commuting to countryside dachas. Unfinished urbanization in Russia not only attracts rural and small towns’ population to major cities but also keeps it within the latter. It slows down the real de-urbanization and induces specific dachas (second-home) suburbanization/de-urbanization, with these processes being closely interrelated. An opportunity to earn money in cities together with the impossibility of moving to major centers due to expensive housing encourages households to remain in small towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, inhabited rural localities (even ones distant from cities) attract seasonal population (dachniks).     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

Equilibrium and disequilibrium perspectives on regional labor migration

Some alternative models of labor migration in the United States are reviewed, with particular reference to the distinction between equilibrium and disequilibrium models of migration. The authors propose alternative tests to a model developed by Joseph Schacter and Paul G. Althaus "which explicitly recognize the stock-flow interactions between net migration and the distribution of regional population stocks and which make a clean distinction between equilibrium in the temporal and in the market-clearing sense."     

The impact of unemployment insurance benefits on the probability of migration of the unemployed

"By ignoring individual unemployment compensation benefits and conditions of job termination, past migration research has concluded that personal unemployment doubles the likelihood of interstate labor-force migration. Findings from the present study indicate that aggregating the unemployed, without adjusting for these two factors, overstates the probability of migration for the involuntarily unemployed benefit recipient and understates the likelihood of migration for the voluntarily unemployed benefit recipient. The results suggest that federal discretionary unemployment-compensation programs, which are implemented during recessionary periods, likely serve to retard out-migration of those who are involuntarily unemployed." Data are from a 1982 sample of unemployed U.S. workers.     

Intermetropolitan migration and quality of life

The aim of this paper is to assess the relative importance of economic and quality of life (QOL) factors as determinants of inter-metropolitan migration in the United States. The study is based on the generalized systemic gravity model of Alonso and on data from a sample of 25 SMSAs over the period 1965-1970. "The most striking feature of the empirical results is the apparent lack of importance of origin economic and QOL factors as determinants of outmigration.... On the other hand, the empirical results suggest both economic and QOL factors to be significant determinants of inmigration."