长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数（CAI）,并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明：①长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的“中心-边缘”分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。②长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

The specifics and spatial structure of circular migration in Russia

Abstract

This article aims at distinguishing recurrent population movements within the territory of the Russian Federation between urban localities of different sizes and rural areas in connection to the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, and de-urbanization. Incomplete urbanization and the strong polarization of socio-economic space in Russia have resulted in two powerful contradictory population flows: centrifugal seasonal sub- and de-urbanization and centripetal labor migration from rural and small towns to large urban centers. The article discusses three forms of recurrent population mobility in Russia: (1) daily commuting of urban and rural inhabitants within metropolitan areas; (2) commuting to large cities and their suburbs for long-term employment intervals (weekly, monthly, etc.), (3) second-home commuting to countryside dachas. Unfinished urbanization in Russia not only attracts rural and small towns’ population to major cities but also keeps it within the latter. It slows down the real de-urbanization and induces specific dachas (second-home) suburbanization/de-urbanization, with these processes being closely interrelated. An opportunity to earn money in cities together with the impossibility of moving to major centers due to expensive housing encourages households to remain in small towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, inhabited rural localities (even ones distant from cities) attract seasonal population (dachniks).     

COMMUTING AS AN ELEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION MOBILITY

Commuting is defined as journeys to work or study that cross the administrative boundaries of minor civil divisions. This poses problems in the statistical analysis of some metropolitan areas, such as Baku, where large suburban territories are administratively under the jurisdiction of the central city government. Time series on commuting exist for trips from rural to urban areas, and help distinguish oblasts and major economic regions of varying levels of rural population mobility. This mobility is highest around large cities that exert a strong pull (Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Khar'kov, L'vov). Rural population mobility is low in Siberia and Kazakhstan, which have a sparse network of industrial centers and low rural population density, and in Central Asia, where the indigenous population is distinguished by low social mobility. Census data for commuting in 1970 yield a typology of cities in terms of the character of commuting. Commuting distances and means of transportation are analyzed for different city size classes.     

REGIONAL POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE USSR: 1979-84

This paper examines regional redistribution and population growth rate trends in the USSR from 1979 to 1984, and compares them to preceding intercensal trends for 1959-70 and 1970-79. Total and regional rates of population change for 1979-84 were generally lower than in preceding periods. The most pronounced regional shift continues to be toward rapidly growing Central Asia, which has surpassed the Center as the most populous Soviet region. However, Central Asia now has net out-migration, and the degree of shift to Central Asia was less than during 1970-79. Between 1979 and 1984 a noticeable northward and eastward shift occurred. In particular, there appeared to be a resurgence of Siberia. After two decades of decline, the share of the Soviet population residing in Siberia increased between 1979 and 1984. Another notable development was the slowing of the rate of rural population decline, especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone of European USSR and in Siberia. It is possible that policies to promote migration to Siberia and to stem rural depopulation may be having some effect. The shift to cities in general and large cities in particular, however, continues. (The author would like to thank Robert Lewis for his useful comments and Jane Rowland for her excellent typing).     

INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION IN THE U.S.S.R., 1981–1985 AND 1971–1975

The publication in 1987 of a Soviet compendium of population statistics has made possible the calculation of net migration balances for the U.S.S.R.'s 20 large economic planning regions by the residual method for the first time since the middle of the 1970s. This paper compares the results for 1981–1985 and 1971–1975 and finds that Siberia has changed from a net loser to a net gainer of migrants, that the shift of population to the southern regions has been reversed, and that the traditional rural outflow from central-eastern European Russia has diminished. Nevertheless, the acclimatization of newcomers in the eastern regions, the stabilization of rural dwellers in the central regions, and the mobility of rural residents in Central Asia and the Transcaucasus all remain insufficient to overcome regional imbalances in labour.
La publication en 1987 d'un compendium Soviétique sur les statistiques de la population a rendu possible le calcul des balances migratoires pour les vingt grandes régions économiques de l'U.R.S.S. pour la premiere fois depuis le milieu des années 1970. Cet article compare les résultats de 1971–1975 et 1981–1985 et montre que la situation en Sibérie est passée d'une perte nette à un gain net de migrants, que le mouvement de la population vers les regions du Sud a été renversé, et que le traditionel exode rural observé dans les régions centrales et dans l'est de la Russie europeenne a diminue. Néanmoins l'adaptation des nouveaux arrivants dans les regions de l'est, la stabilite des ruraux dans les regions centrales, et leur mobilite en Asie Centrale et en Transcaucasie sont insuffisants pour surmonter les desequilibres regionaux en main-d'oeuvre.     

基于街道尺度的南京市老年人口空间分布演变研究

基于南京市第五次和第六次人口普查分乡镇、街道数据,通过街道和圈层双尺度分析了人口老龄化的程度差异、空间差异以及空间相关性,探讨南京市街道老年人口的空间分布格局,采用热点区演化分析了街道老年人口的时空演变特征。结果显示:①近10年南京市街道老龄化系数总体上呈现"跨越式"圈层蔓延扩散的空间分布特征,处于老年人口成长阶段的街道由分布在中心城区和主城区的交界地带转变为向主城区蔓延的趋势,轻度老龄化的街道分布在中心城区,中度老龄化阶段的街道集中分布在主城区和郊区,重度老龄化阶段的街道以郊区为主。②街道老年人口密度类型为密集区,密度最高的区域位于中心城区,郊区次之,主城区内密度最低。③南京市街道人口老龄化率呈现显著的空间正相关,随着时间的推移,街道人口老龄化在空间上的差异增大,集聚效应减弱,空间上的发展渐趋不均衡。热点区分布呈现"冷-次冷-次热-热"的圈层式空间分布格局。④从历史因素、人口生命周期、城市变迁三个角度分析了影响南京市老年人口分布和演变的主要因素。     

The changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector in metropolitan and rural regions, 1976–1997

This paper documents the changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector over a 22‐year period (1976–1997). It does so by looking at the shifts in employment and differences in production worker wages across different levels of the rural/urban hierarchy—central cities, adjacent suburbs, medium and small cities and rural areas. The analysis demonstrates that the most dramatic shifts in manufacturing employment were from the central cities of large metropolitan regions to their suburbs. Paralleling trends in the United States, rural regions of Canada have increased their share of manufacturing employment. Rising rural employment shares were due to declining employment shares of small cities and, to a lesser degree, large urban regions. Increasing rural employment was particularly prominent in Quebec, where employment shifted away from the Montreal region. The changing fortunes of rural and urban areas were not the result of across‐the‐board shifts in manufacturing employment, but were the net outcome of differing locational patterns across industries. In contrast to the situation in the United States, wages in Canada do not consistently decline, moving down the rural/urban hierarchy from the largest cities to the most rural parts of the country. Only after controlling for the types of manufacturing industries found in rural and urban regions is it apparent that wages decline with the size of place .     

The view beyond downtown luxury towers: Diversity of condominium developments in a contemporary mid-sized city

A proliferation of condominiums is fundamentally changing the built, social, and economic fabric of Canada's cities. While developments may be found throughout the urban landscape of cities large and small, most of the contemporary research focuses on luxury towers in the urban cores of Toronto and Vancouver. The following study examines the complete inventory of all condominium units in Halifax, Nova Scotia, revealing spatial and temporal patterns in their development. Nearly 60% of Halifax's condominium units are found in the suburbs, with only 20% in the downtown. Condominium units built since 2010 command the highest prices, surpassing the median single detached house price in the city, while older units from the 1970s and 1980s remain largely affordable. Recent developments can be found in gentrifying neighbourhoods; however, they remain a minority as many more units are found in middle-class suburbs and wealthy inner-city neighbourhoods. Owing to their varied manifestations, the predominant associations of condominiums with a downtown, luxury housing format needs expanding to include locations throughout the metropolitan area, distinct building types, and wide range of prices.     

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE IN THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ELDERLY POPULATION IN ONTARIO, 1976–1986

Although the elderly population is increasing rapidly in all parts of Canada, the pattern of change is far from uniform. A number of properties of the aging process are strongly differentiated at the county and township levels, variations which have considerable significance for the design and implementation of social service and health care systems. Using data from the 1976, 1981, and 1986 Censuses for Ontario, components of change in the elderly population are obtained by cohort survival methods. The significance of rapid metropolitan growth of the elderly compared with the slow growth of the rural elderly is highlighted, while intra-county distributional shifts in the elderly population raise important questions for the next decade.
Quoique l'âge de la population augmente rapidement à travers le Canada, ce changement nes'opèrepas de façon uniforme. Certaines caractéristiques du processus de vieillissement sont vraiment differentes à l'échelle des comtés et des municipalités. Ces différences sont d'une grande importance lors de la création etde l'implantation des services-santé et des services sociaux. À l'aide des statistiques de recensement pour les années 1976, 1981, et 1986 pour l'Ontario, les facteurs de changement des populations de personnes âgées sont obtenus au moyen des paramètres de 'survie des groupes.' La signification du taux d'accroissement rapide des personnes â gés en milieu urbain comparé au taux d'accroissement plus lent de ces mêmes personnes en milieu rural est mise en évidence. Les variations de la distribution de cette population d'un comtéà I'autre soulèvent d'importantes interrogations pour la prochaine décade .     

宋代太湖流域农村城市化现象探析

在宋代太湖流域,随着社会经济的繁荣和城镇的发展,出现了一定程度上的农村城市化现象,其主要表现是：州县城市的空前兴盛以及由此引发的农村商品经济的发展和城郊都市化趋势;农村镇级中心地的大量涌现及其城市化特征的初步形成;乡村草市的广泛兴起和农村市场的快速成长。到南宋时期,太湖流域的农村城市化率已达到10%左右。     

Recent differential population growth in Sumatra: 1961–71

Sumatran population growth and influences

Sumatra, Indonesia's large western Outer Island region, had general, urban and rural rates of population growth during 1961–71 as much as 50% or higher than those for the remainder of Indonesia. The rapid population growth in Sumatra, continuing into the later 1970s, has been associated with a variety of influences. Among these were:

1. New or improved economic activities encompassing large‐scale extraction of crude oil, natural gas, tin, bauxite, and forest products; some coal mining; continued fisheries, commercial small‐holder and estate types of agriculture; and new or expanded manufacturing.

2. Large‐scale transmigration, in‐migration from elsewhere in Indonesia other than Java and Bali, and intramigration within Sumatra have led to increased populations and densities in at least five major areas. The southern area of Lampung Province and to a lesser extent eastern South Sumatra have had notable growth from transmigration flows; several coastal plains areas in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, and Jambi provinces, from upland to lowland or other in‐ and intra‐migration flows.

3. Traditional ethnic, religious, and regional linkages within a predominantly rural village system have remained strong. These cultural conditions provide a background for understanding the continuing overwhelming rural character of Sumatra's people.

4. Although urban growth was more rapid than rural growth in Sumatra during 1961–71, most of this urban growth was concentrated in and around a few relatively large urban centres; the remainder of the urban growth was in the many other urban places, most having the aspect of overgrown villages.

5. Differential growth rates for total, rural, and urban populations were associated with differing perceptions at local, provincial, Sumatra‐wide, or national levels — of the areas having the best opportunities for improved living. With a few exceptions, Sumatra's upland areas have lost large numbers of people to near‐by and only recently highly accessible lowlands. Small, but crucially important, numbers of ambitious and more highly educated people have left Sumatra for Jakarta or other areas of actual and perceived greater economic opportunity.

6. In 1971 the sharply contrasting and increasing population densities of Sumatra emphasized several areas of greater economic development on the one hand; areas of continued limited accessibility or economic activities oil the other. If trends of the 1961–71 decade persist, the 1981 Indonesian census results for Sumatra should indicate increased populations and densities, particularly in the southern Lampung area of agricultural inflow and in the lowlands around Sumatra's large cities which also should continue to have sizeable population increases.

     

从传统农庄到现代城市社区转型的曲折历程——“无保调查”中保定市薛刘营村城市化进程考察

河北省保定市薛刘营村是中国农村经济史上持续80余年著名的"无保调查"中具有特殊意义的研究对象。这个紧邻城市的传统农庄,在新中国成立初期被纳入城市郊区,20世纪90年代末纳入市区,而今即将转变为一个新型城市社区。该村城市化经历了从顺畅起步而后受阻,到快速发展后遭遇产业结构、就业结构和居民身份转换与市民待遇转换长期不同步的"非均衡"发展状况,再到突破旧村拆迁瓶颈,实现建立现代城市社区的曲折历程。这一过程提供了以村为单位研究中国北方城郊传统农庄城市化的完整标本,也为推进北方城郊农村城市化发展提供了宝贵经验。     

Growth of Rural Industries in Post-reform China: Patterns,Determinants and Consequences

The first question addressed by this paper relates to the very high growth rates achieved by China's rural industries during the post-reform period. While growth rates have undoubtedly been extremely high, they can only be put in a proper perspective when growth in different components of the sector (i.e. township- and village-owned and privately owned industries) is examined separately and compared with performance before the reforms. In this regard, an important finding of the paper is that as far as township and village industries are concerned, growth rates in the post-reform period do not represent a sudden break from the rates of the earlier period — particularly the 1970s. It is mainly in the emergence and growth of private enterprises that the growth experience of the 1980s differs substantially from that of the 1970s. The sharp decline in the growth of all rural industries in 1989 does not appear to mark a reversal in their growth environment, but the beginning of a period of consolidation and rationalization; and, contrary to popular notion, private enterprises are not the worst sufferers in this process. Finally, the paper looks at regional imbalance. Historically, rural industries in China have been concentrated more in the eastern provinces along the coast, and this regional concentration has increased during the post-reform period of high growth.     

A STRATEGY FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF SETTLEMENT BSf THE USSR; AIMS,PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

A General Program of Settlement in the USSR, worked out by the Central Urban Planning Institute, envisages a long-term evolution of settlement that would help ameliorate the quality of life, insure industrial development of small and middle-size towns and help protect the environment. Two alternative strategies are envisaged: (1) an extrapolative strategy that projects long-term trends on the basis of past experiences and would enhance agglomerative processes in Soviet settlement; (2) a normative, goal-directed strategy that would seek to foster the evolution of planned and regulated systems of interconnected urban and rural places, and would gradually transform the present agglomerations along the lines of such normative systems. The prospective distribution of settlement under both strategies is mapped. Under the extrapolative strategy, the urban population share in areas with agglomerated forms of settlement would reach nearly 70 percent over the forecast period compared with 44 percent in 1970. The normative, goal-directed strategy would yield 60 large interconnected urban-rural systems, centered on the country's largest cities and accounting for 53 percent of the total population; 170 middle-size systems, centered on moderately large cities and including 26 percent of the population; and 325 small systems, centered on small and middle-size towns and including 14 percent of the population. About 7 percent of the population would remain outside the systemic structure.     

大城市居民对城郊乡村旅游地的感知研究——以南京市为例

本文依据第一手调查数据资料,运用基于现代统计软件SPSS的统计分析法,以南京市为例,研究了大城市居民对城郊乡村旅游地的感知情况,并进一步探讨了感知在人口学特征方面的差异性、总体印象与各要素评价之间的相关关系,在此基础上,对总体印象进行了回归分析,以探寻它与各要素评价之间的具体关系。结果表明,有关城郊乡村旅游地的感知与评价水平不高,在人口学特征方面的差异性不尽相同,总体印象与各具体要素评价之间存在着显著的正相关关系,其中,乡村风光、餐饮、旅游服务和住宿四个方面的感知评价对总体印象影响较大。     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

Do Suburbs Need Cities?

In this paper I examine the relationship between city and suburbangrowth over the last three decades for a sample of U.S. metropolitan areas. I develop a structuralempirical model relating city income growth to suburban growth in income, population, andhouse values. The model allows for bidirectional effects of cities on suburbs and suburbs oncities, as well as for unobserved factors affecting both city and suburbs. The simultaneous,latent-variable model is identified using a combination of exclusion and covariance restrictions.Instrumental estimation results indicate that income growth in large cities enhances suburbangrowth; but income growth in small cities has little effect.     

乡村产业地域分异格局研究——以南京都市圈典型区域为例

本文以南京都市圈"东山—茅山"样带作为研究区域,基于乡村产业POI数据,利用圈层分析、核密度分析等方法,对乡村产业及其多样性分异格局进行研究.结果表明,当前农旅、文创等新产业新业态开始在乡村布局,在近郊区和乡镇中心周边组团集聚、沿交通放射布局特征明显,总体上呈现"距离衰减"趋势,且不同产业分布存在明显差异.分类研究发现...     

Public Intervention and Poverty Alleviation: A Study of the Declining Incidence of Rural Poverty in Kerala,India

In the context of the continuing and lively debate on the estimates, trends and determinants of rural poverty in India, this article examines the sharp decline, since the late 1970s, in the incidence of rural poverty in the state of Kerala, well known for its record of social development. It is argued that, given the slow rate of growth of the Kerala economy in general and agriculture in particular since the mid-1970s, the ‘trickle down’ theory cannot explain the decline in poverty. Similarly, the fact that rural wages have increased faster than the consumer price index does not constitute a sufficient condition for crossing the poverty line. Expansion of state-directed programmes is seen to be the single most important determinant in reducing rural poverty. The effect of public intervention programmes is roughly estimated to be equal to one fifth of the consumption of rural labour households. The lesson of Kerala for poverty alleviation is that social protection expressed in terms of meeting the basic consumption requirements of the poor, especially the vulnerable among the poor, should be a necessary component of development policy. However, this is not a sufficient condition: there should also be a growth strategy which would provide adequate employment to all members of the labour force from the poorer sections of the population. The current line of official thinking in India, in the context of economic liberalization, is hardly conducive to such a strategy.