Are Spells of Unemployment Longer in Nonmetropolitan Areas? Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence

I use nonparametric and semiparametric proportional hazard models to examine whether individuals resident in nonmetropolitan areas experience lower per period rates of exit from unemployment following job loss than metropolitan area residents. Results show that between 1989 and 1993 per period cumulative rates of exit from unemployment were slightly higher in nonmetropolitan areas, mainly due to nonmetropolitan–metropolitan differences in individual characteristics and local economic conditions. Employment density is found to have a positive association with rates of exit of unemployment in metropolitan areas but not in nonmetropolitan areas.     

School quality and rural in-migration: Can better rural schools attract new residents?

Studies in the nonmetropolitan population change literature have largely focused on the role of natural amenities and economic restructuring, but few have focused on the role of public services. This paper addresses the question of whether public services in nonmetropolitan counties, specifically the outcomes of public schools, could attract migrants. We use a Poisson regression technique little-used in the migration literature to control for push and pull factors driving migration patterns and control for school quality. Results show that better schools can draw migrants to nonmetropolitan areas. Marginal effects are larger for nonmetropolitan counties not adjacent to metropolitan areas.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES*

ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single‐purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general‐purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.     

The Causes of Regional Variations in U.S. Poverty: A Cross-County Analysis

The persistence of poverty in the modern American economy, with rates of poverty in some areas approaching those of less advanced economies, remains a central concern among policy makers. Therefore, in this study we use U.S. county-level data to explore potential explanations for the observed regional variation in the rates of poverty. The use of counties allows examination of both nonmetropolitan area and metropolitan area poverty. Factors considered include those that relate to both area economic performance and area demographic composition. Specific county economic factors examined include economic growth, industry restructuring, and labor market skills mismatches.     

POPULATION GROWTH IN HIGH‐AMENITY NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS: WHAT'S THE PROGNOSIS?*

ABSTRACT This paper examines the continued strong population growth in U.S. nonmetropolitan areas possessing high levels of natural amenities during the 1990s and the reasons for near convergence of growth across the top tiers of the amenity hierarchy. Based on estimated parsimonious spatial hedonic growth regressions, strong demand for high‐amenity areas continued in the 1990s, but the converging of population growth across the top tiers appeared related to capitalization of amenity differences among the tiers into factor prices. Yet, evidence obtained from controlling for spatial effects suggests that the relative quality of life in the top two tiers had deteriorated.     

A NOTE ON THE DIFFERENTIAL REGIONAL EFFECTS OF INCOME INEQUALITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING U.S. COUNTY‐LEVEL DATA

This note examines the correlation between income inequality and economic growth using a panel of income distribution data for 3,109 counties of the U.S. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, we find that for the entire sample of 3,109 counties, an increase in a county's level of inequality has a significant negative relationship with future economic growth. In reality, however, the magnitude, sign, and significance of this relationship is not necessarily uniform across all regions of the U.S., motivating the need to examine regional differentials in the relationship between inequality and growth. Consequently, we split our dataset into metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties, into the eight Bureau of Economic Analysis regions, and into regions of different political affiliation and economic‐dependence typology. Our results show considerable heterogeneity in the relationship between inequality and growth across these regions.     

SPREAD AND BACKWASH EFFECTS FOR NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES IN THE U.S.

Few studies empirically estimate the effects of metropolitan growth on nonmetropolitan communities at a national scale. This paper estimates the growth effects of 276 MSAs on population in 1,988 nonmetropolitan communities in the United States from 2000 to 2007. We estimate the distance for growth spillovers from MSAs to nonmetropolitan communities and test the assumption that a single MSA influences growth. We compare three methods of weighting cities’ influence: nearest city only, inverse‐distance, and relative commuting flow to multiple cities. We find the inverse‐distance approach provides slightly more reliable and theoretically supportable results than the traditional nearest city approach.     

LOCAL INPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: 1972–2002*

ABSTRACT This research analyzes manufacturing growth and decline across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions during the 1972–2002 period. We decompose real value added growth across local labor market areas in the lower 48 U.S. states into contributions from labor, capital, and total factor productivity. We then estimate a model describing the long‐run growth of labor, capital, and productivity and find that increased productivity increases the growth of labor and capital, as well as a positive correlation between labor and capital stock growth. We also find evidence that human capital investment and agglomeration economies encourage productivity growth, while unionization discourages it.     

Anomalies in red and blue: Exceptionalism in American electoral geography

Red and Blue America has become the spatial metaphor for an electoral divide on two main dimensions – a nonmetropolitan Red and a larger metropolitan Blue, and a traditionalist Red and a more modern Blue. In this paper, we evaluate the validity and consistency of this conventional wisdom, using both the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections results by county. While previous research has underscored the overall pattern and its accuracy, we choose instead to explore mainly the anomalous results: “metropolitan” or “modern” areas that President Bush carried, and “nonmetropolitan” and “traditional” areas that Democrats won. We develop a typology of the anomalous counties and carry out a simple analysis of characteristics that help show how and why they are anomalous. We then compare the 2000 and 2004 results to discover anomalous areas, counties which switched parties or which became more or less partisan. Trends between 2000 and 2004 suggest a weakening of the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan dimension but a deepening of the cultural one, although we note as well that most of the electorate does not place itself at these partisan extremes. We relate these findings to longer term structural changes in American society, and to Republican strategies to mobilize insecure voters. Finally, we lay out an agenda to look at a sample of counties, using qualitative methods, in order to understand these anomalous results.     

HUMAN CAPITAL LOCATION CHOICE: ACCOUNTING FOR AMENITIES AND THICK LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT A growing literature has found a positive association between human capital and long‐run employment growth across cities. These studies have increased interest in understanding the location choices of university degree holders, a group often used as a proxy measure of human capital. Based on data from the 2001 Canadian Census of Population, this paper investigates determinants of the location choices of degree and nondegree holders. With a multinomial logit model, it tests a series of hypotheses about the differential effects of thick labor markets and amenities on the location choice of these groups across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in Canada.     

Recent changes in migration patterns in Australia

The authors examine the extent to which internal migration in Australia is following the pattern observed in several other developed countries, namely, a flow of population from urban to rural areas. Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan net internal migration rates for 1966-1971 and 1971-1976 are compared at both state and regional levels     

Industry Characteristics Linked to Establishment Concentrations in Nonmetropolitan Areas

In this paper we investigate industry characteristics associated with the clustering of establishments in three-digit SIC manufacturing industries in nonmetropolitan areas. The dispersion parameter k of the negative binomial distribution is selected as the measure of industry spatial concentration. Associations between industry characteristics and spatial concentration are investigated using OLS regression analysis. Our findings indicate that the spatial clustering of establishments is positively related to industry average establishment size, reliance on natural resource inputs, labor intensity, cost shares of professional and technical employees, and cost shares of low-skilled workers. Agglomeration is negatively related to multiplant structure, employment in precision production, and reliance on local product and input markets.     

我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系研究——基于1978-2007年东、中、西部、东北地区面板数据

本文选取1978-2007年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验及误差修正模型对我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系进行了检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,城市化是经济增长的长短期原因,但经济增长是城市化的长短期原因均无法得到证实;东部地区的城市化与经济增长的长短期均互为因果关系;对于中、西部、东北地区而言,城市化是经济增长的长期原因,但不是其短期原因,长短期内经济增长都不是城市化的原因。     

区域经济增长的文化产业驱动效应研究——基于省级面板数据的分析

本文采用中国31个省份1996-2013年的面板数据,对中国文化产业与经济发展的内在驱动效应展开研究。研究发现:第一,文化产业投入和产出规模扩张对地区GDP和人均GDP增长具有显著作用,两者间的交互效应会加大其对经济发展的推动力;第二,文化产业有助于带动旅游业和整个第三产业发展,促进地区经济增长;第三,中国文化产业对经济发展的带动效应存在显著的地区差异,西部地区文化产业对经济发展的提升作用最大,中部和东部地区效应相对不足。因此,进一步加大对文化产业发展的政策支持,实现文化产业的合理布局,不仅能够促进整体经济增长,而且可以实现区域平衡发展。     

LAND AND URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA*

ABSTRACT Land to accommodate urban development in China is provided through requisitions by government officials, suggesting that land availability may be a constraint on urban economic growth. An econometric model of urban GDP growth suggests that land has constrained economic growth in coastal areas but not elsewhere. Elasticities calculated from the estimated coefficients indicate that land availability has a larger proportional impact on economic growth than domestic and foreign investment, labor supply, and government spending. The estimated parameters provide evidence about arbitrage opportunities created by discrepancies between urban land value and compensation for requisitioned rural land, suggesting rural unrest associated with conversion of farmland to urban uses may have some economic roots.     

Employment Risk in U.S. Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Regions: the Influence of Industrial Specialization and Population Characteristics

Abstract.  A dynamic labor market model is used to motivate the inclusion of population characteristics and industrial structure as determinants of regional employment instability. We examine how these factors influence regional employment instability using data from both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in the United States. We find that population characteristics are important determinants of employment volatility and that increased industrial specialization (reduced diversification) increases employment volatility, but the magnitude of that influence drops substantially once population characteristics are considered. We also find that the influence of population characteristics and industrial specialization varies significantly across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions.     

省际边界区域中心城市的构建:怀化个案

省际边界区域应打造区域中心城市,培育区域增长极,扩大边界区域"中心市场"的质量和数量,发挥省际边界区域的扩张效应,促进经济的协调发展。怀化具备成为湘鄂渝黔桂省际边界区域的中心城市的前景,应积极推动边区经济协作向深层次发展;加快发展步伐,构建区域增长极,大力推动企业跨区兼并、收购和联合,制定政策法规,促进区域市场一体化。     

Population growth among U.S. regions and metropolitan areas: a test for causality

ABSTRACT This paper explores theories of population growth, and implied economic growth, among the major U.S. metro areas and regions. One set of theoretical arguments favor the growth of large cities, while an alternative set of arguments favor the growth of the smaller urban areas. Still another set of arguments combine economic space and urban size in the concept of regional growth centers as the engines of regional growth. Granger causality tests are applied to determine the role of urban size or growth centres as engines of regional growth. The test results indicate no causal relationship exists.     

旅游对我国区域经济增长及其敛散性的影响——基于1997年～2010年省际面板数据的实证分析

本文以Barro和Sala-i-Martin的收敛假说为理论基础,利用面板模型探讨了1997年～2010年间旅游业发展对我国总体国民经济及东、中、西部地区区域经济增长及其敛散性的影响。结论显示:1997年～2010年间,全国及东、中、西部地区经济增长均呈发散趋势;旅游发展对全国及东、中、西部地区区域内经济增长及其差距的缩小产生了积极影响。     

成渝经济区县域经济差异的空间分析

借助ARCGIS软件中ESDA分析模块和统计功能,并与传统统计方法加权变异系数相结合,以县域为研究单元,以人均GDP和GDP为测度指标,初步探索了1999-2008年成渝经济区县域经济差异的空间格局变化。结果表明,成渝经济区县域经济总体差异呈逐渐扩大趋势,经济发展水平、经济增长能力和经济密度的空间特征三者的空间格局基本吻合,形成以成都市区和重庆市区为核心的圈状空间结构,且这种格局在不断的强化;高速公路发展轴经济带动作用不明显,广大地区经济仍处于落后状态;现发展阶段,核心区的极化作用占主导,区域经济发展极不平衡。