Declining,transition and slow rural territories in southern Italy Characterizing the intra-rural divides

As metropolitan areas around the world keep expanding, behind them, rural areas continue to be affected by greater rates of depopulation. This is not a new phenomenon: rural to urban migration has been reported in the developed world at least from the period between the two world wars. However, recent rural depopulation trends have dramatically intensified in both the developed and the developing countries worldwide. In planning literature, greater emphasis is placed on the “urban–rural” divide, that is, people leaving the countryside to look for better opportunities in urban areas. However, a growing body of literature points to the fact that not all rural areas are declining at the same rate. Indeed, some rural towns have managed to retain population and even to grow. Therefore, at least in developed countries, an “intra-rural” divide notion is emerging. To exemplify this notion, we have studied rural towns in Southern Italy.     

Understanding Population Decline Trajectories in Spain using Sequence Analysis

Population decline is a key contemporary demographic challenge. Previous work has measured the national extent of population decline, and we know that it is more acute in Japan and Eastern Europe and is set to accelerate across many industrialized countries. Yet, little is known about the population trajectories leading to current trends of depopulation and their underpinning demographic and contextual factors. To address this gap, we aim to identify and characterize the different trajectories of depopulation in Spain from 2000 to 2020 at the small area level using sequence analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, decomposition techniques, and multinomial logistic modeling. We show that while Spain recorded an overall 17.2% national population growth between 2000 and 2020, 63% of municipalities experienced depopulation. We identify six trajectories of population decline, with a well-defined northwest-south divide. These trajectories include mostly rural municipalities, but also certain small- and medium-sized cities. Natural decline comprises the main demographic component underpinning differences in the extent of depopulation across trajectories, and international migration plays an important role in explaining transitions to decline since the financial crisis of 2008. Small and old populations, and, to a lesser extent, remoteness from cities are key features characterizing areas of high decline.     

An alternative policy approach to rural development in regions facing population decline

ABSTRACT

Many rural regions in Europe used to be characterized by weak economic performance and negative population development. While in a long-term perspective this is not any more valid for large parts of Western Europe, a number of rural regions face persistent population decline. By analysing the case of Austria, where approximately one-third of rural areas have experienced such negative population change over the past decades, this paper will examine the impact on economic performance, income levels and well-being patterns. Addressing the crucial and persistent obstacles to positive population trends, new theoretical approaches and perspectives are discussed for overcoming limitations in development. Future approaches for regional development have to go beyond strategies for targeting economic growth, but have to address issues of local participation, social innovation and establishing trust as preconditions to effectively impact well-being dimensions. Such a mobilization effort would be the result of a comprehensive social transition process which would foster an altered narrative for these rural regions compared to the current and predominant focus on compensation and growth policies. Despite strong interlinkages with other regions and actors, the needs of local people would be central and both would be a cornerstone for social innovation.     

Determinants of Net Migration to Rural Areas,and the Impacts of Migration on Rural Labour Markets and Self-Employment in Rural Sweden

Abstract

Across most of Europe, the countryside seems to show a polarized development in which large districts are depopulating, while certain areas, mainly around big- and mid-sized cities, are increasing in population. The latter development is often described in concepts of “rural gentrification” and “rurbanization”, symbolizing a transformation of rural communities to communities with urban values and lifestyles. Most studies of the effects of these processes have focused on social and cultural consequences, as e.g. the displacements of lower-income households with higher-income residents and of rural culture and values with urban ones. This paper examines the phenomenon from another perspective, namely the effects of the “rurbanization” processes on countryside's labour markets and economic life. This paper aims at analysing the determinants of net migration to rural areas in general and to different types of regions, and the impacts of in-migration on rural labour markets, self-employment and other socio-economic conditions in Sweden for the period of 2003–2005. We find that net migration into rural areas increases with the size of adjacent local and regional centres, whereas net migration decreases with the average commuting distance of workers in the rural areas. When comparing in-migrants to rural areas with rural area stayers, our results indicate that the former has lower incomes, a lower employment ratio and a lower degree of entrepreneurial activities. These differences could—at least partly—be explained by the fact that rural area stayers were on average 6 years older than rural area in-migrants, i.e. the two groups were in different stages of their life cycles.     

WAYS OF IMPROVING SETTLEMENT IN WEST SIBERIA

A paper devoted to the settlement system and the problem of rural population loss in that portion of West Siberia having a significant agricultural base takes issue with some implicit assumptions incorporated within the General Scheme of Settlement within the USSR. More specifically, policies calling for the deliberate, i.e., forced, resettlement of rural population in selected villages in order to provide economies of scale in rural services provision are criticized on two major counts: (1) that such “enlarged” settlements will still be too small to be allocated the necessary range of functions according to standard city-planning formulae, and (2) that they accelerate rural depopulation by serving as spring-boards for migration to still larger centers. (Translated by Andrew R. Bond.)     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

The demographic impact of irrigation projects: a comparison of two case studies of the Ebro basin,Spain, 1900–2001

Water management and population issues have always been particularly important in Spain, a country historically characterized by severe environmental constraints on agricultural growth and intense rural depopulation. This paper evaluates whether irrigation projects in Spain over the course of the twentieth century have achieved one of their main objectives, which was to reduce rural population decline. This paper makes two contributions. First, we compare the evolution of population in two of the earliest and most ambitious irrigation projects in Spain, the Riegos del Alto Aragón (Upper Aragon Irrigation System) and the Canal de Aragón y Cataluña (Aragon and Catalonia Canal System), both located in the Ebro basin. Second, the time period of the study spans an entire century. This long-term approach is crucial if we accept that irrigation requires time to consolidate its effects and, therefore, its impact on population may be long delayed. We show that the evolution of population in each of the two projects has been substantially different. We also analyze the factors that have caused or prevented population growth. We argue that financial, economic and environmental limitations have been significant, but also that political and geographical factors have played a major role.     

The specifics and spatial structure of circular migration in Russia

Abstract

This article aims at distinguishing recurrent population movements within the territory of the Russian Federation between urban localities of different sizes and rural areas in connection to the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, and de-urbanization. Incomplete urbanization and the strong polarization of socio-economic space in Russia have resulted in two powerful contradictory population flows: centrifugal seasonal sub- and de-urbanization and centripetal labor migration from rural and small towns to large urban centers. The article discusses three forms of recurrent population mobility in Russia: (1) daily commuting of urban and rural inhabitants within metropolitan areas; (2) commuting to large cities and their suburbs for long-term employment intervals (weekly, monthly, etc.), (3) second-home commuting to countryside dachas. Unfinished urbanization in Russia not only attracts rural and small towns’ population to major cities but also keeps it within the latter. It slows down the real de-urbanization and induces specific dachas (second-home) suburbanization/de-urbanization, with these processes being closely interrelated. An opportunity to earn money in cities together with the impossibility of moving to major centers due to expensive housing encourages households to remain in small towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, inhabited rural localities (even ones distant from cities) attract seasonal population (dachniks).     

‘Brothel of the Pacific’: Syphilis and the Urban Regulation of Laikini Wahine in Honolulu, 1855–75

ABSTRACT

By 1860, Hawai‘i’s Indigenous population had declined by 75 per cent when compared to its estimated pre-contact level. Legislators and physicians attributed this crisis to the seasonal migration of Hawaiian prostitutes. After contracting syphilis from sailors in Honolulu, these women returned to their Native villages where they unwittingly spread the disease. Drawing on legislation, health reports, and newspapers, this article underscores the urban-rural nature of Hawai‘i’s syphilis epidemic by analyzing the 1860 Act to Mitigate the Evils and Diseases Arising from Prostitution (ATM). The law compelled prostitutes to enlist on a government registry, undergo medical inspections, and submit to treatment if infected. Arresting depopulation, adherents argued, hinged on the government’s ability to police Indigenous women within a conspicuous urban environment. In designing and enacting the ATM, legislators and physicians characterized Honolulu as a syphilitic breeding ground that catalyzed Indigenous depopulation by sheltering transient carriers of this highly gendered disease.     

Rural Youth Migration Trends in Australia: an Overview of Recent Trends and Two Inland Case Studies

Much of what has been written on the topic of Australian rural youth migration trends and processes has often proceeded from data‐free, or data‐poor grounds. In this context, this paper analyses recent trends in youth (15 to 24 years of age) migration for a temporally‐consistent set of Statistical Divisions (SDs) in inland rural Australia, and for local government areas within the Northern Tablelands and Slopes and Ranges of northern New South Wales and the Western Australian Central Wheatbelt. The paper finds that rates of youth loss from rural regions have increased over the past twenty years. Yet the patterns, processes, causes and impacts of rural youth migration are distributed in a spatially‐uneven fashion. Some remote areas are receiving net migration gains while booming ‘sea change’ coastal regions have experienced heavy losses. While the ‘flight to the bright city lights’ syndrome is evident, relatively high proportions of young people in the Northern SD of NSW move within their immediate region. Nevertheless, some common understandings concerning youth mobility were also confirmed. Gender differentials in migration propensity between women and men are evident even at quite local scales. Young people are also more likely to search out capital cities than the rest of the population. Most inland areas still continue to experience heavy losses of local youth. A more precise understanding of rural youth migration trends is an important stepping stone in the establishment of a reinvigorated research effort into young rural people's perspectives of their changing life chances in their home communities.     

Foundations of Urbanisation: Port Vila Town and Pango Village,Vanuatu

Urbanisation in contemporary Melanesia must be understood by examining not only rural to urban migration, but also the ways in which communities adjacent to town have appropriated and participated in urban living. This paper considers the engagement between the village of Pango and the town of Port Vila. This relationship can be understood by mapping the history of Pango prior to the development of Port Vila, and through its subsequent history. This paper considers natural disasters, revolution, migration, depopulation, education wage employment, colonial administration and post-Independence transformations, and the way they are interpreted, remembered and expressed. Pango's status as a peri-urban village affects the way Pangoans invoke the past and interpret the present.     

From left-behind children to young migrants: the intergenerational social reproduction of rural migrant labor in China

ABSTRACT

Growing in number in the last two decades, rural migrant workers in China have completed intergenerational replacement, and young migrants have become a principal part of the migrant population. However, the process of such intergenerational reproduction has not been thoroughly examined. Based on field studies in the Chinese countryside, this paper analyzes the mechanisms of intergenerational reproduction of rural migrants from the perspective of rural communities, families, and school education. “Left-behind” rural communities, their migration-oriented social culture, and the cognition of rural–urban differences as constructed through migrant parents facilitated a subjective willingness for migration among left-behind children. Exclusion from urban-biased rural education is often the final external thrust for their migration. Having finished the transition, the households of a new young generation of rural migrants are experiencing a different crisis of reproduction. This paper argues that there is a systematic rupture between labor, households, and rural society and that this presents a critical development trap for China.     

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.     

ON THE INEQUALITY OF RURAL SERVICES PROVISION IN THE USSR

Results of studies of inter- and intra-regional variation of rural services provision (including retail trade, cultural-educational services, and health care) are compared. Highest levels of per capita services provision were found in the Baltic republics and RSFSR, with lower levels in the southern European USSR, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia. The differences are attributed to rural depopulation (northwestern USSR), rural development priorities in areas of severe natural conditions (Siberia), and high rates of natural population increase (Central Asia). A differential approach in services planning is recommended between areas located near oblast urban centers and those which are more remote (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

DISTANCE FROM URBAN AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AND RURAL POVERTY*

ABSTRACT Despite strong national economic growth and significant poverty reduction during the late 1990s, high poverty persisted in remote rural areas. This study uses a geographical information system county database to examine the nexus between rural U.S. poverty and remoteness. We find that poverty rates increase with greater rural distances from successively larger metropolitan areas (MAs). We explain this outcome as arising from the attenuation of urban agglomeration effects at greater distances and incomplete commuting and migration responses to lower labor demand in rural areas. One implication is that remote areas may particularly experience greater reductions in poverty from place‐based economic development policies.     

The impacts of parental migration on children’s subjective well-being in rural china: a double-edged sword

ABSTRACT

The emerging problem of left-behind children has attracted mounting academic and policy attention. Prior studies primarily cast light on left-behind children’s education, health, and behavior, while their subjective well-being is much less understood yet. Based on a nationally representative sample of rural children aged 10–15 in 2014, we examine the impacts of different types of parental migration on children’s subjective well-being and how these affects vary between boys and girls. The results show that parental migration is a double-edged sword: children from both-parent migrant families report compromised life satisfaction and relationship quality compared with those in integral families, and mother-only migration significantly lowers children’s subjective health. On the flip side, father-only migration enhances children’s aspiration for attaining college, an encouraging effect that is even stronger than that of parental education and family income. These effects are heterogeneous by children’s gender: boys seem to be more susceptible to the disruptive effects of both-parent migration; mother-only migration effectively promotes girls’ educational aspiration while father-only migration promotes boys’. This study portrays a comprehensive image of left-behind children. Relaxation of hukou restriction, equal access to education, and revitalization of rural economies are imperative to improve the well-being of left-behind children.

Abbreviations: LBC: Left-behing children; SWB: subjective well-being     

The attraction of the rural: Characteristics of rural migrants in Sweden

This paper investigates the characteristics of rural migrants in Sweden divided into periurban and remote countryside using register data at the individual level. The results show that during the two years of investigation, 1987 and 1993, there was a concentration of the population in general but the periurban countryside gained migrants from the cities. In addition, the migration pattern had an aging effect on the population in rural areas. It is also shown that migration selectivity is relatively stable during the study period. The countryside is less attractive than urban areas to those with high income and high education but when the two types of countrysides are compared to each other the periurban is more attractive. Despite the renewed interest in rural living which has been reported in other studies, remote rural areas are less attractive to migrants than periurban areas in Sweden.     

The Impact of Childhood Migration on Educational Attainment: Evidence from rural–urban migrants in Indonesia

This paper estimates the effect of migrating permanently as a child from a rural area to an urban area; focusing on long-term educational attainment in Indonesia. We conduct a household survey specifically tailored to collect data on urban–rural migrants in four major migrant destination cities in Indonesia, and merge the data with a nationally representative survey to create a dataset that contains migrants in urban areas and non-migrants in rural areas who were born in the same rural districts. We find that individuals who migrated to the city as children attained three more years of education, compared to observably similar individuals who remained in rural areas. We find no gender differences in the benefit of childhood migration. Finally, age at migration and the size of network in the city do not significantly affect the educational attainment of childhood migrants.     

A Contemporary Archaeology of Cultural Change in Rural North-Western Spain: From Traditional Domesticity to Postmodern Individualisation

This paper explores the built environment in two rural areas of Northwest Spain that were historically inhabited by two of the so-called “cursed peoples.” Combining contemporary archaeology and material culture studies, we analyze the role played by the house in processes of socio-economic and cultural change, and in the reproduction of internal hegemony within villages. To do so, we study the tensions and connections existing between the transformations undergone by the built environment during the last century and different socio-economic processes, including the depopulation of the rural areas, their conversion into tourist attractions, and the current process of individualisation of subjectivity in line with the transformations taking place in the postmodern era.     

The success–failure dichotomy revisited: young adults' motives to return to their rural home region

Researchers are increasingly aware that nonlinear perspectives of the transition into adulthood and non-economic motives, such as family and friends, may help to improve our understanding of young adults' migration decisions. This paper combines these new insights with the traditional economic success–failure arguments in order to explain young adults' return migration to their rural home region. We present four orientations in return motives: the social, family, functional and partner orientation. They consist of different combinations of the stereotypical success–failure arguments with non-serial transitional stages, and with different attachments to the home region. They also show that in some cases, return migration should actually be interpreted as staying in the home region, because the young adult returnees had not mentally left the region. We therefore state that our results provide a solid argument for reinterpreting the out-migration of young people from rural areas.