共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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This paper demonstrates and evaluates two different but complementary methodologies of small area forecasting in a rural area some 80 km north of Adelaide. The first approach forecasts overall population trends using a sector-by-sector appraisal of the growth/decline prospects of each economic sector based on detailed field surveys carried out in 1968 and 1970. The second approach was to use the readily available 1971 census and corresponding vital statistics data to project the population of the study area using a simple cohort-component projection methodology. Both approaches made forecasts of expected population levels by 1980, and in that year the authors conducted a resurvey of the same study area. The article demonstrates the need for, and results of, regular updating of the assumptions on which population forecasts are made, for the period 1968–1980 includedan unexpected revival of the farm economy as well as the onset of the international urban-rural migration flow of the ‘population turnaround’. Neither of these trends had been foreseen in the initial forecasts; their effects are shown in the results of the 1980 resurvey, and the utility of the forecasting methodologies is discussed in the light of these findings. 相似文献
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There is growing evidence that microcredit does little to support self‐employment. Two main explanations are typically emphasized: from a microeconomic perspective, the poor have been argued to lack the skills, resources and motivation to start their own businesses; from a macroeconomic perspective, local markets are often saturated. This article uses first‐hand data from rural South India to explore a third explanation which focuses on the social regulation of markets. Drawing on a household survey, the authors show that self‐employment and microcredit are uncorrelated, and that women and lower castes have a significantly lower chance of starting up a business. The businesses they do start tend to be smaller, less profitable and based in very specific sectors. Qualitative insights into the workings of local economies show that caste and gender‐based social regulations influence local markets determining who can produce or sell what, to whom, and at what price. The authors observe that real markets are affected by power relations and structured through social institutions rather than being the sum of interactions between free and competitive individuals. These findings show the importance of integrating self‐employment programmes into broader policies for transforming the social regulation of markets and for eradicating discrimination against women and lower castes. 相似文献
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Rural Transformation and Cultural Industries: Popular Music on the New South Wales Far North Coast 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Chris Gibson 《Geographical Research》2002,40(3):337-356
This article explores the emergence of popular music as a niche cultural industry, connected to economic and social transformations on the New South Wales Far North Coast (also known as the ‘Northern Rivers’ region). The various images of the New South Wales Far North Coast as a ‘lifestyle’ region, ‘alternative’ locale and coastal retreat have attracted a diverse mix of ex–urban professionals, unemployed persons, youth subcultures, backpacker tourists and retirees. Yet, despite population growth, the region continues to suffer unemployment rates among the highest in Australia. Against this backdrop, diverse popular music ‘scenes’ have emerged, constituting an industry with linkages to cultural production in Sydney, Melbourne and overseas. While the region’s unique cultural mix has been suggested as a key site of comparative advantage, future employment is likely to remain transient, insecure, and governed by industry–wide labour relations. This case study illustrates some of the complexities underpinning contemporary urban–regional change in Australia, and provides cautious assessment of the capacity of the cultural industries to reinvigorate rural economies. 相似文献
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P.J. Smailes 《Geographical Research》2000,38(2):158-181
Major changes in personal mobility and in country town service provision have taken place in rural South Australia in the period 1968–69 to 1992–93. The later part of this period was one of major rural recession across Australia as a whole. The impact of this recession is considered by investigating changes in three different geographies of rural South Australians. These are their affective identification with place, their local social interaction and their commercial service consumption. There has been a shift of both commercial and social activity up through the hierarchy of settlement, but this is much more pronounced in the case of commercial activity. These differential rates of change are weakening the once mutually reinforcing links between community self‐identification, social interaction and trading patterns. The full impact of the rural crisis commencing in 1982–83 on social and commercial spatial patterns is unlikely to have been achieved by 1992–93, and adjustment is likely to continue. 相似文献
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祈求丰产的祭祀符号--大汶口文化陶尊符号新解 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
一 从1957年到1982年,在山东莒县陵阳河、杭头、莒县店子大朱村和诸城前寨四处大汶口文化遗址中陆续出土了19个刻画在陶尊上的符号(图一).其中,陵阳河遗址12个,大朱村遗址5个,杭头和前寨遗址各有1个. 相似文献
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Richard Eves 《Oceania; a journal devoted to the study of the native peoples of Australia, New Guinea, and the Islands of the Pacific》2000,71(2):73-91
Through an exploration of some of the negotiations occurring in the cultural sphere of religion, I problematise the term globalisation, challenge some of the assumptions that have been made about it, and argue that, in a particular sense, it has become a two‐way process. Taking the case of the experience of the 1997–98 drought on the Lelet Plateau in central New Ireland, I examine the manner in which the concepts and beliefs of premillennialist Pentecostal Christianity engage with the local. What is new is that these discourses about the end of the world have brought the global horizon into prominence in a way that the previous more orthodox Christianity did not, so that local events take on signficances they did not have in the past. This is not a simple matter of the new powerful framework irresistibly overwhelming local knowledge, but involves careful scrutiny of both, and negotiation between them. The result is not that the local is swamped, but that the globe becomes an horizon which frames local experiences in particular ways. 相似文献
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作为我国最大的综合性国家级博物馆,故宫安全及文物保护是故宫一切工作的基础。故宫的保护要有全面和整体意识,要处理好吉建筑中保护与利用,日常维护与大修的关系;清查、整理和修复、抢救文物藏品的工作,要与研究、发掘、保护和传承非物质文化遗产的工作相结合;要提高文物保护的科技水平,加快“数字故宫”的建设。故宫除自身研发井应用了一批科研成果外,还积极与国内外有关部门合作,在运用科技手段保护和利用文物方面取得了很大的进展。故宫决心不辜负全国人民的重托,增强和提高文物保护的能力,更好地传扬中华民族的文化瑰宝。 相似文献
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Cees Leeuwis 《Development and change》2000,31(5):931-959
In many popular intervention methodologies aimed at stimulating sustainable rural development (in the widest possible sense) the idea of ‘participation’ is a leading principle. This article will demonstrate that the process in which actors are supposed to participate is often thought of as being a process of planning, decision‐making and/or social learning. It will be argued that such an operationalization of development processes is based on inconsistent theoretical assumptions, and can easily lead to unproductive development interventions due to an inability to handle conflicts. As an alternative it is proposed to use negotiation theory as a basis for organizing participatory development efforts. The implications of such a shift in thinking about participation are far‐reaching: it requires new modes of analysis, and different roles, tasks and skills for facilitators of participatory processes. 相似文献
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本文通过对《行穰帖》原卷的考察和历代著录的研究,证明《行穰帖》是自北宋宣和内府以来,流传有绪的一件唐代制作的法书影摹本。此外,还澄清了该帖历代刻本、摹本的原委,并解释了乾隆跋语中对董其昌评价的误会。 相似文献
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The National (Country) Party, traditional beneficiary of a countrymindedness ethos in rural and regional Australia, suffered a significant electoral setback at the 1998 federal election from a new conservative force in Australian politics, the One Nation Party. One Nation has been characterised as the party of the ‘old’ Australia, those least able to cope with the pace of recent social and economic changes, rationalisation and centralisation of services and the exodus of people from rural and regional areas. Such a characterisation is supported by findings from this study of the geography of voting and the social correlates of One Nation's support base in the Farrer electoral division in south‐western New South Wales. 相似文献