中国产业在东亚的优势及结构调整

中国产业的发展已进入了按国际分工构来选择和实施战略性调整的关键时期。本文采用比较优势指数及贸易特化系数,分析了中国与东亚各国和地区贸易中工业制品的比较优势及竞争优势的状况,指出中国与东亚的产业国际分工的特征、竞争与互补关系以及如何重构中国产业竞争优势的问题。     

构建汽车产业区位竞争优势--以长春市为例

区位建立竞争优势才能主动迎接经济全球化的挑战,由此,本文提出\"区位竞争优势\"这一概念。中国正处于工业社会向知识经济社会的转型过程中,制造业所需的区位竞争优势内容具有两种社会的交叉特点,极富代表性。本文选取受跨国公司影响巨大的汽车产业为分析对象,将区位竞争优势的内容分析落实到具体的产业;并以长春市为例,对条件并非最好的区位提出构建区位竞争优势的思路。     

中国外商投资区位选择的时空格局与影响因素

以中国274个地市为样本,引入空间分析和计量模型等方法,分析外资分布特点及影响因素,结果表明：①中国目前尚不存在大规模外资\"逃离\"现象,外资利用总量在波动中上升,结构趋于优化。②空间上由集聚集中趋向分散均衡,呈\"北进西移\"态势,东部高度集中,中西部发展较快。外资高值集聚区逐渐向北推进,低值区向西南收缩;③劳动力成本、市场规模、专业化经济、FDI累积、市场化水平和开放度均对外资有正向作用。其中,传统因素对外资的吸引作用正逐渐下降,FDI累积的作用上升明显,集聚对外资分布作用显著。从不同区域看,集聚经济和FDI累积效应等新经济地理因素在东部外资区位选择中受到更多的关注,而劳动力成本、基础设施、开放水平等传统因素在中西部吸引外资中作用更大。④中国应遵循因地制宜、因时制宜的原则制定差异化的外资政策。     

城市和区域产业发展分析的增长商测度

区域产业分析的常用测度之一是区位商,该测度用于一个地理单元（如北京市）中某种行业在全部行业中的比重与特定区域（如全中国）的同种行业比重做比较。然而,区位商是一个静态概念,不能反映一种行业的相对增长幅度或者变化速度。基于数学中\"商\"的概念和理论地理学中测度构造的一般方法,本文定义了一个行业增长商测度,用于比较一个子区域中某种行业的增长幅度与特定地理区域中同一行业增长幅度,数值越大表明一个子区域的某种行业相对于特定区域的同种行业的增速越快、增幅越大。进一步地,定义了一个区域增长商,用于比较某种行业的相对增幅与全部行业的平均增幅,数值越大表明某种行业在全部行业中的增速越快。采用信阳实例说明了增长商分析的应用方法。作为参照,定义、对比并讨论了区位熵和增长熵测度。增长商是一个动态的测度,简明易懂,在区域产业分析中可以与区位商功能互补,在未来的主导产业选择中可能发挥一定作用。     

1995年来中国省际入境旅游相对优势演化的空间特征分析

从区位商的角度,通过引入演化概率矩阵,定量的探讨了1995-2005年来中国省际入境旅游相对优势差异的演化情况,并通过对演化概率矩阵的空间分解,分析了空间环境对入境旅游相对优势演化的影响。结果表明,中国省际间入境旅游相对优势存在差异,但这种差异在10年的演化过程中整体上呈现不断下降的态势,差异的变化和政策以及突发事件密切相关。自身的相对优势基础对该地区入境旅游相对优势的演化存在着十分重要的影响,高相对优势基础地区的演化趋向于衰退演化;低相对优势地区的演化趋向于增长演化,且低相对优势基础地区发生突变演化的概率高于高相对优势基础地区。相对优势演化概率在空间上并不独立,东部区域中低相对优势基础地区的增长演化概率明显高于中西部地区,说明东部区域中低相对优势基础地区入境旅游的发展好于中西部地区。区域合作、交通改善、资源开发是演化重要影响因素。     

环渤海地区制造业地理集聚研究

运用区位商指数和基尼系数对环渤海地区两位数制造业20个行业1993-2007年的集聚水平进行测度。结果表明:10余年来环渤海地区20个主要制造业行业的地理集中程度在不断提高,绝大部分行业呈集聚加强趋势;制造业结构具有一定的相似性,各省(市)地方专业化产业趋同,比较优势和集聚经济没有起到应有的作用;环渤海地区工业化进程呈梯度分布,北京、天津已处于工业化的后期阶段,资本和技术密集型产业向内转移,河北、山东、辽宁仍处于工业化的中期阶段,劳动密集型行业具有较强的比较优势。     

基于L-3D方法的云南省物流经济空间格局研究

为科学分析物流经济空间格局,基于经济地理学3D理论的密度(density)、距离(distance)和分割(division)框架,建立了物流经济空间格局的L-3D分析体系,利用地理集中度、物流经济联系强度及区位商等测度指标,分析了云南省物流经济空间格局的密度、距离及分割特征。结果表明:云南省物流经济密度的空间分异特征显著,呈现以昆明为中心的横纵扩散模式,外圈物流经济明显薄弱;物流经济空间距离呈现中心-通道发展模式,滇中城市群发展优势明显,西部边界物流经济距离较大;物流经济分割特征体现于昆明的区位商值较低,滇中城市群物流经济发展差异显著,以昆明为基准,大理及其周边地区分割严重。     

Economic Globalization and its Problems: A Response to Eaton,Herpel, and Moe-Lobeda and Spencer

Abstract

Building on the other papers in this issue, I offer a theological critique of economic globalization. The theory, or "theology" that supports it leads people of good will, despite the many negative consequences of the globalized pursuit of growth, to pursue such growth, as measured by GDP, as the goal of economic policy. This economistic theology takes no account of human community or ecological sustainability. Until it is changed economists will continue to direct us toward catastrophe.     

Candidate localness and voter choice in the 2015 General Election in England

Previous research has demonstrated a significant relationship between the geographical distance from a voter to a candidate and the likelihood of the voter choosing that candidate. However, models of this relationship may be mis- or under-specified, by not taking into account voters' perceptions of distance or not controlling for other possible factors related to a candidate's ‘localness’ which may influence vote choice. Using a two-wave panel survey carried out during the 2015 UK General Election, this article tests a more fully specified alternative-specific multinomial probit model of candidate-voter distance. We show that, although the effect size is smaller than in previous tests, candidate-voter distance mattered in the 2015 General Election, an effect that is robust to controls not only for party support and incumbency, as previous research had demonstrated, but also to measures of voter information, candidate presence and marginality. We also find that contiguity mattered: candidates living in non-neighbouring constituencies have a lower likelihood of vote than those living in neighbouring constituencies or in the constituency itself.     

国内区域贸易、国际贸易与国家竞争力

大国国内区域贸易与国际贸易关系主要表现在两个方面:一是国内区域贸易与国际贸易存在一定程度上的相互替代的关系;二是国内区域贸易与国际贸易存在相互促进的关系,发展国内区域贸易能提升大国在国际经济中的竞争力。     

金融集聚研究进展与展望

金融业集聚属于服务业集聚范畴,既与制造业集聚有共性,又有其独特性。金融集聚的研究主要依托于区位理论、集群理论和金融地理学。区位理论是金融集聚的理论基础,集群理论为金融集聚提供了研究范式,金融地理学的发展为金融集聚研究带来新的动向。金融集聚的现有研究内容主要集中于对集聚的动因、类型、效应、模式的探讨,以及金融中心的构建等几个方面。随着全球化、信息化对金融业的发展布局影响越来越大,未来应重点加强对金融分支行业和微观区域方面的研究。     

Geographical Concentration of Manufacturing Industries in China: The Importance of Spatial and Industrial Scales

Using the most recent data from the first economic census in China, a team of China-based and American economic geographers investigates the geographical concentration of manufacturing industries at the provincial and county levels by integrating proxy variables for natural advantages, agglomeration economies, and institutional changes (e.g., decentralization) associated with economic transition. The authors focus their investigation on manufacturing activity as a whole, as well as on manufacturing categories at the two- and three-digit levels of aggregation (the latter representing a finer scale of analysis than used in almost all previous studies). Interesting differences emerge in the locational patterns of industries whose enterprises pursue strategies of globalization vis-à-vis local protectionism. Differences also are apparent in the impacts of agglomeration economies and knowledge spillover at different spatial scales. The findings suggest that both spatial scale and level of industrial aggregation matter when analyzing patterns of industrial agglomeration in China. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L10, L20, L60, O18. 5 figures, 5 tables, 50 references.     

Can Russia Compete in the Global Economy?

A noted British economist and analyst of current developments in Russia investigates that country's competitiveness in global merchandise export markets by seeking to determine its trade specialization and comparative advantage in a global context. In search of consistent trends, the author compares Russia's scores in 2000 on the Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage with those of 2004, and also for that year with a selected list of international competitors (Brazil, India, China, Turkey, and the United States) as well. He then discusses recent (through June 2006) government efforts to stimulate export growth in sectors currently underrepresented in Russia's trade profile and assesses prospects for improvement in the balance of Russia's export profile. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E20, F14, F40. 7 tables, 20 references, 1 appendix.     

2. ONCE AGAIN,WITH MORE FEELING

This book summarizes in a compact volume Runciman's arguments to comparative sociologists that their discipline belongs under the theoretical umbrella of neo‐Darwinian selectionism. In his view, heritable variation and competitive selection govern cultural and social as well as biological evolution. Runciman makes a strong case for the usefulness of selectionism, but two of the theory's central features are problematic: his choice of units of selection; and the notion that culture can be distinguished from society historically as well as analytically. No one friendly to the basic project would argue against the need for hypotheses about units that undergo selection, but arguments can be made, also on pragmatic grounds, that he has chosen the wrong kinds of units. Runciman's learning and wisdom show to good effect in the book's fundamental approach: in the overall human story, the biological, cultural, and social coevolve. The quickly accumulating evidence of evolutionary psychology, anthropology, sociology, and neuroscience strongly supports the hypothesis that there is a biological basis for a great deal of human behavior, and also that sociocultural evolution modifies genes. History, in this way of thinking, is like a “braided stream” of unpredictably mutating, blending, and coevolving biological, cultural, and social processes. The old Darwinian image of branching fails to capture the complexity of evolutionary processes in biology, culture, and society. Runciman outlines a unified bio‐social science relying upon information theory. If his program were carried out consistently it would relegate to a non‐scientific level the traditional historical narratives about “carriers” or “vehicles”. The scientific‐explanatory level would instead feature replicators. Gametheory strategies play a prominent role in the selectionist picture. The emphasis on units of information stored in human brains or in exosomatic brain prostheses pushes neuroscience and information theory to the fore. An argument for the analytic‐heuristic value of “memes” and “practices” should be weighed against the value of other hypothetical units undergoing selection in a sociocultural evolutionary approach.