Rural population change in Nova Scotia, 1991–2001: bivariate and multivariate analysis of key drivers

Depopulation is a major demographic and economic issue in Nova Scotia, as it is in many of Canada's hinterland areas. Indian Reserves excepted, two-thirds of rural census subdivisions declined in population between 1991 and 2001, and this decline has serious economic and social consequences. By contrast, a small minority of seemingly 'rural' areas is experiencing excessive population growth through exurbanisation. This article combines map and graph analysis with simple regression and multivariate techniques to analyse the key drivers of recent population change. It is shown that such change is strongly and predictably related to unemployment rate, income and population density and moderately related to resource-industry employment, proximity to a major urban centre and commuting. These six variables are interrelated, however, and their separate contributions are explored through principal component analysis and multiple regression. Two variables—resource-industry employment and urban proximity—are identified as key root causes, indicative of separate factors. Findings are related to the Drudy–Gilg model of rural decline, and their policy implications are briefly discussed.     

Urban geography and protest mobilization in Africa

Urbanization has long been seen by scholars and policymakers as a disruptive process that can contribute to social and political unrest, yet there is little cross-national quantitative empirical research on the topic. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the links between urban geography and the incidence of protests (i.e. demonstrations, riots and strikes) in African countries since 1990. In contrast to previous studies, we are careful to distinguish between urban population scale effects, urban population ratio effects, population rate-of-change effects and urban population distribution effects. We also provide an explicit test of the long-standing hypothesis that ‘over-urbanization’ increases the risk of civil unrest. Employing multilevel negative binomial models that control for key political and economic variables we find that urban population size and the number of large cities in a country are both positively and significantly associated protest incidence. By contrast, we find that a country's level of urbanization is negatively associated with protest incidence and reject the over-urbanization hypothesis: higher levels of urbanization are associated with less frequent protests at all income levels. We find no evidence that the pace of urban population growth or urban primacy significantly influence protest mobilization. In sum, our results provide a nuanced picture of the relationship between urban geography and protest incidence that challenges conventional wisdom and contemporary hyperbole about the dangers of ‘rapid urbanization’ in Africa in particular, and developing countries more generally.     

Demographic Change,Differential Ageing,and Public Policy in Rural and Regional Australia: A Three‐State Case Study

This paper takes a differential demographic change in six rural settlement categories within rural and regional Australia as the starting point for the measurement of differential ageing using a Relative Ageing Index which compares ageing in sub‐populations with the national norm. The spatial units employed are 412 rural communities, approximated by social catchments each consisting of a country town and its surrounding dispersed population. The study covers the period from 1981 to 2006 and includes the rural areas of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, excluding major cities, peri‐urban areas, and the remote rangelands. It examines demographic change and differential ageing in a selection of the rural settlement categories recommended for further analysis in the report of the ‘Demographic Change and Liveability Panel’, one of three advisory panels established in 2010 by the then Commonwealth Government seeking to develop a sustainable population strategy for Australia. Ageing profiles are produced for the whole study area, for the individual rural settlement categories, and for the urban and rural components within each category separately. Results show that differential ageing is least advanced in the ‘regional cities’, most advanced in the ‘sea change’, but of most concern in the agriculture‐based rural settlement categories where it exacerbates the effects of overall population decline. In all categories, ageing in the dispersed rural population element exceeded that of the urban component. Results emphasise the vital role of the ‘regional cities’ category in future public policy development supported by ameliorative and collaborative measures for their surrounding agriculture‐based communities.     

Population pressure,political institutions,and protests: A multilevel analysis of protest events in African cities

Why do some of Africa's urban areas experience higher rates of protest incidence than others? Numerous authors have highlighted the role of urbanisation and democratisation in determining cross-national variation in the rates of urban protest. Yet understanding has been hindered by failures to measure mechanisms at the appropriate spatial scale, analyse a sufficiently representative sample of urban centres, de-confound local and country-level factors, and consider what it is about specific urban centres that shapes variation in protest incidence. This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of protests in African urban centres by linking georeferenced data on urban settlements from the Urban Centres Database to the location of protest events taken from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset. Fitting a series of multilevel regression models with cross-level effects, we simultaneously estimate variation in protest incidence as a function of local- and country-level factors and the interactions between them. Our results indicate that variation in protest incidence between urban centres can be explained by a combination of local-specific and country-level contextual factors including population size and growth, regime type, civil society capacity, and whether an urban centre is politically significant. These findings advance our understanding of how political and demographic factors interact and influence protest incidence in urban Africa.     

Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe

Events such as Brexit and the Gilet Jaunes protests have highlighted the spatial nature of populism. In particular, there has been increasing political divergence between urban and rural areas, with rural areas apparently having lost faith in national governments. We investigate this divergence using data on over 125,000 EU citizens from the European Social Survey from 2008 to 2018. We show that people in rural areas have lower political trust than urban or peri-urban residents, with this difference clear for six different forms of political institutions, including politicians, political parties, and national parliaments. There has been divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe since 2008, although this is primarily driven by Southern Europe. While these results can partly be explained by demographic differences between cities and the countryside, divergent economic experiences, differences in values, and perceptions that public services are less effective outside of urban areas, there is a residual ‘rural effect’ beyond this. We argue that the polarisation of urban-rural political trust has important implications for the functioning of European democracies.     

Towards lower carbon cities: urban morphology contribution in climate change adaptation strategies

Non-urbanized areas (NUAs) play an important role in reducing the effects of climate change by providing both carbon storage and sequestration. Urban areas are responsible for the emission of 60% of global greenhouse gas, 50% of which are produced by buildings. During the past decades, increasing urban growth and sprawl processes produced several urban layouts characterized by different morphological features and a common lack of sustainable energy and environmental solutions. Investigating the relationship between urban morphology, energy demand and carbon emission/sequestration represents a relevant topic for urban planning practices implemented to face urban climate change effects. This study proposes a method for a transformability assessment aimed at investigating the transformation suitability of different urban morphology types. The case study is the metropolitan area of Catania (Italy), characterized by an impressive urban growth since the 1960s. The proposed method identification of limits and options for increasing sustainability of urban areas considering the contribution of both NUAs and built-up areas. This approach allows to identify appropriate planning tools for new layouts of urban fabrics while increasing the objectivity of the decision process. In the framework of climate change mitigation and adaptation, the outcomes of this research may lead to innovative urban planning practices.     

Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa

Once it was an environmental issue, then an energy problem, now climate change is being recast as a security threat. So far, the debate has focused on creating a security ‘hook’, illustrated by anecdote, to invest climate negotiations with a greater sense of urgency. Political momentum behind the idea of climate change as a security threat has progressed quickly, even reaching the United Nations Security Council. This article reviews the linkages between climate change and security in Africa and analyses the role of climate change adaptation policies in future conflict prevention. Africa, with its history of ethnic, resource and interstate conflict, is seen by many as particularly vulnerable to this new type of security threat, despite being the continent least responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions. Projected climatic changes for Africa suggest a future of increasingly scarce water, collapsing agricultural yields, encroaching desert and damaged coastal infrastructure. Such impacts, should they occur, would undermine the ‘carrying capacity’ of large parts of Africa, causing destabilizing population movements and raising tensions over dwindling strategic resources. In such cases, climate change could be a factor that tips fragile states into socio‐economic and political collapse. Climate change is only one of many security, environmental and developmental challenges facing Africa. Its impacts will be magnified or moderated by underlying conditions of governance, poverty and resource management, as well as the nature of climate change impacts at local and regional levels. Adaptation policies and programmes, if implemented quickly and at multiple scales, could help avert climate change and other environmental stresses becoming triggers for conflict. But, adaptation must take into account existing social, political and economic tensions and avoid exacerbating them.     

Causes and Consequences of Inequality in Egypt

This study presents an analysis of various facets of inequality in Egypt using a political economy approach to understand how inequalities are reproduced in the Egyptian economy. It examines the drivers of income and wealth inequality, and the impact of uneven taxation. The paper highlights how the mismeasurement of top incomes can skew the measurement of inequality, and shows how Egypt has one of the biggest wealth gaps in the world. It investigates educational, gender, and healthcare inequalities and how they are reproduced across generations. The paper also highlights the disparity between urban and rural areas, which further contributes to inequality. It assesses why economic growth in Egypt has had limited success in reducing poverty and inequality, and analyzes how state and military interference in markets hampers the growth of the private sector. The paper concludes by examining how inequality, combined with a number of challenges that Egypt is facing, including increased authoritarianism, climate change, demographic pressures, and water security will likely exacerbate many of the country’s socioeconomic and political problems. Overall, the study argues that inequality remains a key concern that, if left unaddressed, may lead to social unrest and instability in the long term.     

From trusteeship to development: how class and gender complicated Kenya's housing policy, 1939–1963

Colonial rule required the control of territory, nowhere more than in cities. In the early twentieth century, colonial policy in Kenya and the rest of East and Southern Africa had only grudgingly accommodated Africans in urban areas. After 1939 policy changed, not only in response to poor local conditions and social unrest but also because London's new colonial development policy made a place for African workers in towns. From 1940, new housing and colonial policies acknowledged the importance of the discourses of class and gender. Administrators stabilised an African working class by building better municipal housing, and then sought to fashion a middle class by promoting home ownership. They began to promote housing for families, having recognised that African women could help to make their men at home in the city, and to educate children to become good citizens. The evolution of Kenya's housing policy illuminates the characteristic pressures, calculations, and responses of colonial rule that were being played out internationally in the late colonial period.     

Africa's population and family planning dynamics

The historical and current demography of Africa in this discussion focuses on the context of population policy, contraceptive use, reproductive behavior, polygamy, and economic impacts. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have the highest rate of population growth in the world. 50% are aged under 20 years, and 20% are aged under five years. Urban areas are growing at the fastest rates in the world (5-6% annually). Population density remains low, except for areas where there is high soil fertility. Many African countries recognize the need for population policies. The most important donor to Africa, the World Bank, has pressured African governments to adopt family planning (FP) programs. A major World Bank study has shown that more FP services are desired by African women. Family expenditures for the 1980s for FP were estimated at $100 million annually, of which $53 million was provided by donors. Further expansion in the program is needed. The World Bank targeted contraceptive use at 25% of African married couples. Except for Egypt and North African countries, contraceptive use is around 3-4%. Another perspective on population reduction is to expand programs for child spacing and postnatal nutrition of mothers and infants. There has been a failure to turn health systems around to low-cost preventive health, particularly in rural areas. Infant mortality must be reduced before fertility will decline. Population growth can be slowed by changing the status of African women (high social status and recognition are associated with high fertility), age of marriage, child spacing, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. Demographic data on Africa have only become available during the past 25 years. African demographers are in short supply and require training abroad. Demographic data gaps and reliability problems are offset by the recent availability and quantity of survey data. Historical demography has produced conflicting results. Although some investigators, such as Ester Boserup, argue that population pressure results in agricultural innovations, Africa has yet to experience this phenomena. The youthful composition of the population guarantees continued population momentum. Fertility is enhanced by the cultural emphasis on perpetuating lineage and high fertility. Changes in reproductive behavior will depend on major social changes for women.     

“Elephants for Want of Towns”: Archaeological Perspectives on West African Cities and Their Hinterlands

Sub-Saharan Africa has long been seen as lacking the potential for autochthonous urban development, and Near Eastern and European contact provided ready explanations for the emergence of precolonial cities across the continent. In the past few decades, the pace of archaeological work on African cities has accelerated, and archaeologists have increasingly deployed a functional model of the city, in which cities are defined in relation to broader hinterlands rather than particular traits. As a result, deeply rooted urban traditions have been identified in all corners of the continent. Despite the antiquity of urban traditions across Africa, however, long-distance forces clearly had wide-reaching impacts on urban developmental trajectories, and proponents of the functional model have yet to explain the specific role of long-distance forces in the process of urbanization. This review examines how multiscalar forces shaped urban trajectories in West Africa, specifically. I examine how local political entrepreneurs took advantage of the opportunities provided by local, interregional, and global forces, resulting in a heterogeneous set of urban traditions across West Africa, ranging from trading entrepôts to regional capitals. Throughout I emphasize how local agency articulated with multiscalar social and economic forces, transforming the nature of regional integration, economic specialization, and the materialization of social difference, defining qualities of urban life.     

An Evaluation of Endogenous Sustainable Development Planning for the Rural–Urban Environment in Gran Canaria

Urban developments can transform adjacent rural areas by degrading their natural resource base and environmental values. In this paper we provide evidence on the implementation of an endogenous sustainable development plan for the rural–urban environment in the city of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. The objective was the generation of endogenous development in the rural areas by implicating the local population in developing activities in line with natural values and the recuperation of traditional cultures. At the same time, urban societies were expected to benefit from the preservation and availability of these rural environments. The plan was implemented in a large rural valley located between adjacent urban areas. The valley represents an opportunity for urban dwellers to benefit from a large rural park in the urban environment for leisure and cultural activities. The overall accomplishment of the plan was evaluated and contrasted with the benefits to the urban population, which were also measured with a discrete choice experiment. The results highlight that the principal objectives failed because of the lack of political determination to promote the participatory channels that would lead to the preservation of natural resources in a dynamic process of social change.     

RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS IN AFRICA: SOME LESSONS FROM WESTERN NIGERIA

I n an analysis of regional problems within Africa, the frequent imbalance between the geographic distribution of resources and of population suggests that rural development and resettlement will play an increasingly important role in mobilizing the continent's latent resource base. With the almost universally increasing rates of population growth in Africa, pressure for redistribution of people is increasing, most of which manifests itself in accelerating rates of urbanization. But it is also apparent that developing urban areas can only effectively absorb a small proportion of maldistributed population. Therefore national planning programs are increasingly focusing upon the need to reconstruct or to reorientate the economic milieu of rural areas, as is demonstrated by increasing investment in rural development and settlement schemes.     

LAND AND URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA*

ABSTRACT Land to accommodate urban development in China is provided through requisitions by government officials, suggesting that land availability may be a constraint on urban economic growth. An econometric model of urban GDP growth suggests that land has constrained economic growth in coastal areas but not elsewhere. Elasticities calculated from the estimated coefficients indicate that land availability has a larger proportional impact on economic growth than domestic and foreign investment, labor supply, and government spending. The estimated parameters provide evidence about arbitrage opportunities created by discrepancies between urban land value and compensation for requisitioned rural land, suggesting rural unrest associated with conversion of farmland to urban uses may have some economic roots.     

Appreciating the heterogeneity in the unity of Africa: A socio‐ecological perspective on Africa's geographies

The African continent is known by various metaphors and geographies, but for many there are also unknowns about the continent. Geopolitically, Africa is a continent that is considered remote—an economically emerging continent seen as entangled in persistent challenges of wars, political dictatorship, poverty, disease, and more recently migration. Given these predispositions it is typical to stereotype events, practice, and behaviour as “African.” There is, however, now recognition of the continent as emerging economic power house. But unpacking the diversity of Africa reveals a huge potential with respect to resource endowments, diversity of ecology, socio‐cultural economic advancement, politics, language, and demographics. Colonial history coupled with traditional Africa shaped the geopolitical boundaries that have added to the confusion about this massive and diverse continent. Intellectual discourses either amplify the differences due to specificities of geographical focus or generalizations such as the contested notion of “African.” However, using socio‐ecological lenses, Africa is unified by these very differences in addition to being a massive landmass with several big and small island states. Appreciating these differences is useful to understanding the observed patterns of social, economic, and political systems that unify the continent. This paper illustrates the notion of “African” to describe the heterogeneous nature of a “unified” continent. Some illustrative examples between Africa and other continents are used.     

Iran's global reach: The Islamic Republic of Iran's policy,involvement, and activity in Africa

The aim of this study is to analyze the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI)'s policy toward and involvement in the African continent as a case study of the IRI's global policy and reach. The aspiration of the IRI's leadership for international standing and support coupled with a desire to export its revolutionary model and extend its influence beyond its borders have shaped its activity on many continents, including Africa. Africa's strategic location, past colonial experience, political position, rich resources, large Muslim population, and economic attractiveness have all contributed to shaping the IRI's activity within it. This study analyzes IRI's foreign policy in general and its implementation in Africa in particular, identifying the different historical phases of its activity in Africa, distinguishing between the various African regions, the main Iranian organizations involved therein, the means of and channels for Iranian involvement in Africa, and the reasons for IRI's gains and losses on that continent. The study shows how the Islamic regime has managed, during its 40 years of rule, through pragmatism and resilience, to gain influence and support, has endeavored to balance its losses, and has adapted to new circumstances in the African continent.     

Dealing with Sustainability Trade-Offs of the Compact City in Peri-Urban Planning Across European City Regions

The compact city has become a leading concept in the planning of peri-urban areas. The compact city concept is often advocated as “sustainable” because of claims that include lower emissions and conservation of the countryside. The literature shows, however, that there are certain trade-offs in striving for compaction, especially between environmental and social aspects of sustainability. In this article, we describe expressions of the compact city concept in the planning practice of several European urban sample regions, as well as policies and developments that contradict the compact city. We look at examples of positive and negative impacts of the compact city that were observed in the sample regions. Further, we discuss attempts by planners to deal with sustainability trade-offs. Being aware that developments in the peri-urban areas are closely connected to those in the inner city, we compare the sample regions in order to learn how the compact city concept has been used in planning peri-urban areas across different contexts in Europe: in Western, Central and Mediterranean Europe, and with growing, stable or declining populations. We conclude with recommendations with respect to balance in applying the compact city concept.     

“Why would they care?”: Youth,resource extraction,and climate change in northern British Columbia,Canada

Discussion about local decision making tends to overlook rural and remote youth engagement. Resource extractive industries are, however, fixtures in many rural, remote, northern, and Indigenous communities in settler colonial British Columbia, Canada. These industries shape youths' perceived options for social and economic ventures when they are looking towards their futures. By engaging literature on climate change, settler colonialism, and critical Indigenous studies, and drawing on empirics from workshops conducted with youth from northern British Columbia, this paper explores how rural and remote northern and Indigenous youth engagement and perspectives can transform discussions on climate change and resource extraction. The paper documents how rural and northern youth have been engaged in environmental decision making, particularly in light of resource extraction. The paper also suggests that environmental decision making has at times been extractive itself. The paper concludes that when engaged meaningfully, youth desire to work collectively against social and environmental injustices.     

DYNAMICS OF POPULATION IN THE UKRAINIAN SSR (1959-1984)

Analysis of change in the spatial distribution of population in the Ukrainian SSR demonstrates a pronounced shift toward the east and south, and toward the major metropolitan area of Kiev and Kiev Oblast. An upsurge in city growth in the least urbanized, western Ukraine, coupled with steady, above-average urban growth in other locations, has contributed to gradual erosion of the Donets-Dnieper Region's dominance in urban population. Accelerated rates of rural population decline in western areas of highest rural population concentration has promoted a gradual equalization of the distribution of rural population (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).