Mortality and sanitary conditions in the "best governed city in the world"--Birmingham, 1870-1910.

The growth of population in nineteenth-century Britain has often been attributed to the decline in mortality during that period. Here the relationship between improvements in sanitary conditions and the fall in disease mortality is considered for one particular city in the period 1870–1910. Medical Officer of Health reports are used to show the spatiotemporal patterns of both a selection of fatal diseases and sanitary conditions in Birmingham in the 1880s. This evidence suggests that administrative developments in hospital provision, for instance, need to be combined with public health improvements in any explanation of mortality decline. Further, that poverty, as reflected by back to back housing, is more closely associated with high mortality than variables measuring sanitary conditions.     

The unique decline of mortality in revolutionary France

This article seeks to draw historians' attention to a neglected reconstruction of the French population and its mortality rates developed by the Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques in the 1970s. The reconstruction shows a sharp decline in French mortality rates, beginning in the 1790s and continuing through the 1820s. This conflicts with recent historiography stressing the negative effects of the Revolution. This article contends that the reconstruction is plausible and that the French mortality decline was unique in Europe in this period. In turn, this suggests that the Revolution had a much more favorable impact than many historians would have us believe.     

Nationalism, racism and propaganda in early Weimar Germany: contradictions in the campaign against the "black horror on the Rhine"

During the early 1920s, an average of 25,000 colonial soldiers from North Africa, Senegal and Madagascar formed part of the French army of occupation in the Rhineland. The campaign against these troops, which used the racist epithet ‘black horror on the Rhine’ (schwarze Schmach am Rhein), was one of the most important propaganda efforts of the Weimar period. In black horror propaganda, images of alleged sexual violence against Rhenish women and children by African French soldiers served as metaphors for Germany’s ‘victimization’ through the Versailles Treaty. Because the campaign initially gained broad popular and official support, historians have tended to consider the black horror a successful nationalist movement bridging political divides and strengthening the German nation state. In contrast, this essay points to some of the contradictions within the campaign, which often crystallized around conflicts over the nature of effective propaganda. Extreme racist claims about the Rhineland’s alleged ‘mulattoization’ (Mulattisierung) increasingly alienated Rhinelanders and threatened to exacerbate traditional tensions between the predominantly Catholic Rhineland and the central state at a time when Germany’s western borders seemed rather precarious in the light of recent territorial losses and separatist agitation. There was a growing concern that radical strands within the black horror movement were detrimental to the cohesion of the German nation state and to Germany’s positive image abroad, and this was a major reason behind the campaign’s decline after 1921/22. The conflicts within the campaign also point to some hitherto neglected affinities between the black horror and subsequent Nazi propaganda.     

Urbanization and mortality decline

We investigate the relationship between mortality decline and urbanization, which has hitherto been proposed by demographers but has yet to be tested rigorously in a global context. Using cross‐national panel data, we find evidence of a robust negative correlation between crude death rates and urbanization. The use of instrumental variables suggest that this relationship is causal, while historical data from the early 20th century suggest that this relationship holds in earlier periods as well. Finally, we find robust evidence that mortality decline is correlated with urbanization through the creation of new cities rather than promoting urban growth in already‐extant cities.     

HISTORIANS AND THEIR SOURCES

This study analyses the development of the use of unpublished source material in Swedish doctoral theses in history, 1959–2015. The results show that the proportion of theses which rely on such materials has dropped in relation to the level that existed up to and including the year 2007. From having dropped below 90% only twice during the time period 1959–2007, the average for the years 2008–2015 is 77%. There are several explanations as to why this decline in use of unpublished source material has occurred. An initial explanation is that more doctoral theses are now published within the subdiscipline of historical science, in which, for example, history didactics and uses of history are included. History didactics and uses of history have gained more ground within the overall field of historical research during the last 10 years. The next-to-lowest figures are found in the category history of ideas, culture, and opinion history; a category which during the time period 2008–2015 remained at a fairly constant share of the total number of doctoral defences in history in Sweden in relation to the situation at the beginning of the 2000s.     

The structure of mortality in mid-nineteenth century England and Wales

Most analyses of the origins of the secular decline of mortality in mid-nineteenth-century England and Wales have not dealt with the wide range of mortality experienced by the population in that period. The Registrars' General Annual Reports provide data for a set of 631 registration districts that may be used in examining the spatial variations in life expectancy at birth and infant mortality. This evidence, differentiating clearly between urban and rural areas, suggests that the changing urban environment and a variety of factors that in combination led to improvements in public health standards, local administration and housing quality played important parts in mortality decline.     

Demographic transition theory: a neglected aspect of the nomadism-sedentarism continuum

This paper proposes an adaptation of demographic transition theory to the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. It is argued that a change along this continuum implies a change in the mode of production, which in turn entails changes in fertility and mortality. The following hypotheses are set forth: 1) at the pastoral phase of a nomadic society, fertility is relatively low and mortality is relatively high, yielding a low rate of natural increase; 2) as a pastoral nomadic society senentarizes, fertility begins to rise and mortality falls, resulting in a sharp rise in natural increase, but as sedentarization becomes more advanced, both these trends slow down somewhat; 3) as the nomadic society becomes fully sedentarized, there is a period in which fertility remains at a high level but then begins to fall slowly, whereas mortality, after reaching a temporary minimum, exhibits a minor increase followed by a resumption of a declining trend; and 4) in the postsedentarization phase, the demographic regime of the ex-nomads becomes similar to the 2nd and 3rd stages of the original demographic transition theory, with a slowdown of the decline in mortality, followed by a later slowdown of fertility and of the rate of natural increase. The hypothesis of rising fertility among sedentarizing nomads is related to both social modernization and economic growth and development, including an improved standard of living and public health services. The interrelated processes of general societal responses to population growth and the changing role of children in the family are assumed to account for the eventual fertility decline. Data from several countries, including a case history from Israel, suggest that birth rates increase along the continuum but their decline at postsedentarization will depend on trends in the general rural sector. Natural increase rates of sedentarizing nomads are considerably higher than those of pastoral nomads. It is concluded that this approach may fill a gap in demographic transition theory and provide a conceptual framework for future studies.     

Growth of Rural Industries in Post-reform China: Patterns,Determinants and Consequences

The first question addressed by this paper relates to the very high growth rates achieved by China's rural industries during the post-reform period. While growth rates have undoubtedly been extremely high, they can only be put in a proper perspective when growth in different components of the sector (i.e. township- and village-owned and privately owned industries) is examined separately and compared with performance before the reforms. In this regard, an important finding of the paper is that as far as township and village industries are concerned, growth rates in the post-reform period do not represent a sudden break from the rates of the earlier period — particularly the 1970s. It is mainly in the emergence and growth of private enterprises that the growth experience of the 1980s differs substantially from that of the 1970s. The sharp decline in the growth of all rural industries in 1989 does not appear to mark a reversal in their growth environment, but the beginning of a period of consolidation and rationalization; and, contrary to popular notion, private enterprises are not the worst sufferers in this process. Finally, the paper looks at regional imbalance. Historically, rural industries in China have been concentrated more in the eastern provinces along the coast, and this regional concentration has increased during the post-reform period of high growth.     

明朝公祭文文本的政治文化内涵

祭文是祭祀仪式过程中使用的祝祷性文字。明代史籍中保存了大量国家公祭文,按内容可分为常规性祭文与临时性祭文两类。祭文在公祭仪式中被宣读、呈案、焚烧或掩埋,此为祭祀过程的重要环节之一。公祭文文本传递出重要的文化内涵：首先,它以言辞形式传达出祭祀主体之意图,沟通了人神关系;其次,对祭祀主体之身份和统治之正统合法性进行反复强化;再次,表达祈福弥灾,规约官民,震慑鬼类的意图。此外,祭祀文中的各种对象关系展现出时人复杂而微妙的天、神,君、臣、人、鬼观。在祭祀仪式上使用祭文使上述内涵得到彰显,进而增强了群体意识中的“神圣”体悟。     

The decrease in socioeconomic differences in mortality from 1920 to 2000 in the United States and England

This study found that the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on mortality decreased steadily during the twentieth century. It examined trends in age-specific adult mortality rates for employed men and infants in a number of social classes based on occupation in England and Wales and for black, white, and immigrant nationality groups of men, women, and infants in the United States. Both countries experienced continuing decreases in mortality rates and narrowing of SES differences in mortality rates from 1920 to the end of the century. Most of the decrease and narrowing in England and Wales occurred before the establishment of the National Health Service and the unprecedented improvements in clinical and preventive medicine after midcentury. Current cancer mortality rates in both countries show no consistent relationship with SES. The very low mortality rates of some low SES immigrant nationality groups in the United States throughout the century demonstrate that other social factors can have a greater effect on health than SES.     

Separating the Men from the Boys: Masculinity and Maturity in Understandings of Shell Shock in Britain

This article examines gendered discourses of shell shock inBritain during the First World War. Located within the contextof the ideas about shell shock as a form of male hysteria putforward by Elaine Showalter, it examines the ways in which thecontemporary discourses of soldiers, medical professionals andpopular novelists used ideas of maturity and self-control tounderstand a condition that appeared to undermine both the wareffort and national masculinity. It argues that contemporaryunderstandings of authority and maturity helped to normalizeshell shock as a medical condition, thereby lessening its perceivedthreat to society.     

A Large‐Scale Palaeopathological Study of Hip Fractures from Post‐Medieval Urban England

Hip fractures have high incidence rates in many current groups and are associated with high morbidity, mortality, and considerable expenditure. Although hip fractures associated with significant traumatic events can occur at any age, many hip fractures occur in older adults. To date, few hip fractures have been reported from archaeological skeletal material, and a number of hypotheses have been suggested for this. This research presents a comprehensive assessment of hip fractures in archaeological bone; 1597 adult (18+ years) skeletons from eight urban post‐medieval sites from England dating from the 18^th and 19^th centuries were recorded, and contemporary medical texts reviewed. This adult sample included 834 males and 652 females as well as 11 persons of undetermined sex. Ways of classifying and describing fractures in the clinical literature were reviewed and a methodology applicable to paleopathology determined. Of this sample, 15 (0.94%) had fractures in the femoral neck or intertrochanteric area: nine males, four females, and two individuals of undetermined sex. The numbers of fractures in males were interesting and most likely represent examples of accidental trauma as well as osteoporosis‐related fractures, the latter receiving growing awareness in recent clinical literature. Overall there was an age‐related trend with more individuals aged 50+ years with fractures than in other age categories. Underlying osteoporosis was potentially a complicating factor in five individuals and was likely associated with a vitamin D deficiency osteomalacia and a metastatic neoplastic condition in a further two cases. Fractures occurring close to the time of death and healed fractures were observed, indicating that the risk of mortality following this trauma was not consistent across this 18^th and 19^th century sample. Skeletal and historical evidence presented in this study indicate that the impact of hip fracture injuries varied, with survival likely linked to the fracture type. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.     

The greater risk of fewer deaths: an ethnodemographic approach to child mortality in Hausaland

"A Nigerian case study illustrates how local understandings of health influence perceptions of infant survival in ways that may juxtapose indigenous interpretations to other 'objective' data. Evidence from two extended field investigations of a Hausa-Fulani village, set 12 years apart, suggests a decline in childhood mortality rates attendant upon the increasing availability of biomedicines. We note, however, that local perceptions are that mortality risks are now greater for those less than five years old. Our discussion focuses on the circumstances that inform this ethnodemography and its applicability to other population studies." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Female Demographic Disadvantage in India 1981–1991: Sex Selective Abortions and Female Infanticide

Using evidence from a number of sources (including the 1981 and 1991 censuses of India, prior research, and NGO reports), this article examines whether bias against girl children persists during periods of development and fertility decline, whether prenatal sex selection has spread in India as elsewhere in Asia, and whether female vs. male child mortality risks have changed. The authors present estimated period sex ratios at birth (SRBs) calculated by reverse survival methods along with reported sex ratios among infants aged 0 and 1, as well as sex ratios of child mortality probabilities (q5), from the two censuses. The findings show an increase in ‘masculine’ SRBs and persistent (or even worsening) female mortality disadvantage, despite overall mortality decline, due to selective neglect and the spread of female infanticide practices in some areas. Research and reports indicate the increasing use of prenatal sex selection in some regions. In India, preference for sons appears to be undiminished by socio-economic development, which interacts with cultural sources of male bias. The increased masculinity of period SRBs in some areas, together with persistent excess female child mortality and female infanticide, creates a ‘double jeopardy’ for girl children. Legislation curbing prenatal sex determination and policy measures addressing societal female devaluation have had little impact, suggesting that female demographic disadvantage is unlikely to improve in the near future.     

东吴长江防线兵要地理初探

东吴长江防线的形成,是三国政治形势、长江地理条件、东吴国力水平的综合产物。整个防线共划分为江陵防区、武昌防区和建业防区三部分。其中江陵防区约有部队5万人,建业防区约为13万。东吴经营防线的策略是守江而争淮汉。长江防线的存在,使东吴割据政权得以长期维持;东吴对长江防线的经营,促进了沿江城市的发展;长江防线的巩固,促成了东吴君臣的偏安心理。防线最后的崩溃,与其西端没有牢固的依托点密切关联。     

NDVI Variability in North East India

Abstract

The variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in north east India in response to rainfall and temperature was analysed using twice-monthly NOAA/AVHRR satellite imagery acquired during 1982–2002 from the GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) data-set. Corresponding rainfall and temperature estimates were extracted from the Climate Research Unit's CR TS 2.1 data-set for 34 study sites, chosen using the GLC 2000 land use categories. The selected sites represent nine land use categories under differing institutional frameworks. Results showed a weak linear relationship between the growing season rainfall and NDVI range when plotted in a scatter diagram. The negative correlation between NDVI and rainfall and temperature and NDVI in the study area was accentuated during the growing season and a one- and two-month lag for rainfall and temperature respectively was operating. A gain coefficient image to determine the temporal change in NDVI during the 21-year period indicated a consistent decline for much of the study area. Among the study sites those under state protection fared better than sites under other institutional frameworks. Along with rainfall and temperature, land use and institutional frameworks emerged as causative factors in the dynamics of vegetation greenness in north east India.     

Transitions to Formality and Declining Inequality: Argentina and Brazil in the 2000s

Although inequality and labour informality continue to be distinctive characteristics of Argentina and Brazil, during the last decade the two countries have been successful in reversing the negative trends of the 1990s. This article presents a comparative analysis of the labour formalization process that took place in Argentina and Brazil during the 2000s. It studies the flows towards labour formality, what caused them, and the interrelations of this process with the changes that occurred in labour institutions and the decline in income inequality. The study contributes to two debates: the role of labour market flexibilization in employment formalization, and the decline in income inequality. Most of the literature emphasizes the evolution of returns to education; this study complements this approach by analysing the contribution of formalization to the decline in inequality in Argentina and Brazil. The results show that labour formalization has reached all categories of workers, that it has been accompanied by real minimum wage increases, and that it has had an equalizing effect.     

The chemical subject: phenomenology and German encounters with the gas mask in the World War I

Employing phenomenological theory, this paper argues that German World War I soldiers’ introduction to the gas mask represents a salient historical moment in the human relationship to modern chemical technology. As a protective device, the gas mask was intended to save soldiers from a horrible death by asphyxiation. In doing so, it forced soldiers to directly confront the new technological landscape of the modern World War I battlefield. While the mask proved genuinely effective in its ability to filter poison gases, it required constant vigilance from gas-weary soldiers. This so-called ‘gas discipline’ would allow men to survive and even thrive in a newly dangerous modern world. However, the physical and mental stress of this existence, often led to breakdowns in soldier discipline and failures in gas protection. Thus, the soldiers’ relationship to the gas mask revealed the limits of technological trust for the earliest ‘chemical subjects’ of the twentieth century.