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1.
Accurate simulation of multiphase flow in fractured porous media remains a challenge. An important problem is the representation of the discontinuous or near discontinuous behaviour of saturation in real geological formations. In the classical continuum approach, a refined mesh is required at the interface between fracture and porous media to capture the steep gradients in saturation and saturation‐dependent transport properties. This dramatically increases the computational load when large numbers of fractures are present in the numerical model. A discontinuous finite element method is reported here to model flow in fractured porous media. The governing multiphase porous media flow equations are solved in the adaptive mesh computational fluid dynamics code IC‐FERST on unstructured meshes. The method is based on a mixed control volume – discontinuous finite element formulation. This is combined with the PN+1DG‐PNDG element pair, which has discontinuous (order N+1) representation for velocity and discontinuous (order N) representation for pressure. A number of test cases are used to evaluate the method's ability to model fracture flow. The first is used to verify the performance of the element pair on structured and unstructured meshes of different resolution. Multiphase flow is then modelled in a range of idealised and simple fracture patterns. Solutions with sharp saturation fronts and computational economy in terms of mesh size are illustrated.  相似文献   

2.
The generation of computational meshes of complex geological objects is a challenge: their shape needs to be retained, resolution has to adapt to local detail, and variations of material properties in the objects have to be represented. Also mesh refinement and adaptation must be sufficient to resolve variations in the computed variable(s). Here, we present an unstructured hybrid finite element, node‐centred finite‐volume discretization suitable for solving fluid flow, reactive transport, and mechanical partial differential equations on a complex geometry with inhomogeneous material domains. We show that resulting meshes accurately capture free‐form material interfaces as defined by non‐uniform rational B‐spline curves and surfaces. The mesh discretization error is analysed for the elliptic pressure equation and an error metric is introduced to guide mesh refinement. Finite elements and finite volumes are represented in parametric space and integrations are conducted numerically. Subsequently, integral properties are mapped to physical space using Jacobian transformations. This method even retains its validity when the mesh is deformed. The resulting generic formulation is demonstrated for a transport calculation performed on a complex discrete fracture model.  相似文献   

3.
Established techniques that have been successfully used to characterize pore systems in conventional reservoir rocks lack the resolution and scalability required to adequately characterize the nano‐ to micrometer scale pore systems found in shale and cannot be applied on stressed samples. We have therefore investigated the utility of Klinkenberg gas slippage measurements for shale pore structure characterization. In contrast to other approaches, slippage measurements characterize the effective porosity of core samples and can be applied at stress conditions experienced in the reservoir during production. Slippage measurements on horizontally and vertically oriented samples from the Eagle Ford Shale Formation, Texas, USA, at a range of stress states revealed two orders of magnitude in slippage variation over five orders of magnitude permeability range. Slippage measurements are negatively correlated with permeability and follow similar trends to those found in other studies on higher permeability rocks. The samples had varying degrees of slippage anisotropy, which allowed interpretation of the relative contribution of tortuosity and pore size to permeability anisotropy. Slippage and therefore average effective pore size was found to vary up to one order of magnitude at a given permeability, warranting investigation of the significance this might have on flow properties and ultimately hydrocarbon production from shale.  相似文献   

4.
We measure the fluid transport properties of microfractures and macrofractures in low‐porosity polyphase sandstone and investigate the controls of in situ stress state on fluid flow conduits in fractured rock. For this study, the permeability and porosity of the Punchbowl Formation sandstone, a hydrothermally altered arkosic sandstone, were measured and mapped in stress space under intact, microfractured, and macrofractured deformation states. In contrast to crystalline and other sedimentary rocks, the distributed intragranular and grain‐boundary microfracturing that precedes macroscopic fracture formation has little effect on the fluid transport properties. The permeability and porosity of microfractured and intact sandstone depend strongly on mean stress and are relatively insensitive to differential stress and proximity to the frictional sliding envelope. Porosity variations occur by elastic pore closure with intergranular sliding and pore collapse caused by microfracturing along weakly cemented grain contacts. The macroscopic fractured samples are best described as a two‐component system consisting (i) a tabular fracture with a 0.5‐mm‐thick gouge zone bounded by 1 mm thick zones of concentrated transgranular and intragranular microfractures and (ii) damaged sandstone. Using bulk porosity and permeability measurements and finite element methods models, we show that the tabular fracture is at least two orders of magnitude more permeable than the host rock at mean stresses up to 90 MPa. Further, we show that the tabular fracture zone dilates as the stress state approaches the friction envelope resulting in up to a three order of magnitude increase in fracture permeability. These results indicate that the enhanced and stress‐sensitive permeability in fault damage zones and sedimentary basins composed of arkosic sandstones will be controlled by the distribution of macroscopic fractures rather than microfractures.  相似文献   

5.
A cased and sealed borehole in the Northern Barbados accretionary complex was the site of the first attempts to measure permeability in situ along a plate boundary décollement. Three separate efforts at Hole 949C yielded permeability estimates for the décollement spanning four orders of magnitude. An analysis of problems encountered during installation of the casing and seals provides insights into how the borehole conditions may have led to the wide range of results. During the installation, sediments from the surrounding formation repeatedly intruded into the borehole and casing. Stress analysis shows that the weak sediments were deforming plastically and the radial and tangential stresses around the borehole were significantly lower than lithostatic. This perturbed stress state may explain why the test pressure records showed indications of hydrofracture at pressures below lithostatic, and permeabilities rose rapidly as the estimated effective stress dropped below 0.8 MPa. Even after the borehole was sealed, the plastic deformation of the formation and relatively large gap of the wire wrapped screen allowed sediment to flow into the casing. Force equilibrium calculations predict sediment would have filled the borehole to 10 cm above the top of the screen by the time slug tests were conducted 1.5 years after the borehole was sealed. Reanalysis of the slug test results with these conditions yields several orders of magnitude higher permeability estimates than the original analysis which assumed an open casing. Overall the results based on only the tests with no sign of hydrofracture yield a permeability range of 10?14–10?15 m2 and a rate of increase in permeability with decreasing effective stress consistent with laboratory tests on samples from the décollement zone.  相似文献   

6.
The aim of this study was to determine the process–structure–property relationships between the pre‐ and post‐CO2 injection pore network geometry and the intrinsic permeability tensor for samples of core from low‐permeability Lower Triassic Sherwood Sandstone, UK. Samples were characterised using SEM‐EDS, XRD, MIP, XRCT and a triaxial permeability cell both before and after a three‐month continuous‐flow experiment using acidic CO2‐rich saline fluid. The change in flow properties was compared to those predicted by pore‐scale numerical modelling using an implicit finite volume solution to the Navier–Stokes equations. Mass loss and increased secondary porosity appeared to occur primarily due to dissolution of intergranular cements and K‐feldspar grains, with some associated loss of clay, carbonate and mudstone clasts. This resulted in a bulk porosity increase from 18 to 25% and caused a reduction in mean diameter of mineral grains with an increase in apparent pore wall roughness, where the fractal dimension, Df, increased from 1.68 to 1.84. All significant dissolution mass loss occurred in pores above c. 100 μm mean diameter. Relative dilation of post‐treatment pore area appeared to increase in relation to initial pore area, suggesting that the rate of dissolution mass loss had a positive relationship with fluid flow velocity; that is, critical flow pathways are preferentially widened. Variation in packing density within sedimentary planes (occurring at cm‐scale along the ‐z plane) caused the intrinsic permeability tensor to vary by more than a factor of ten. The bulk permeability tensor is anisotropic having almost equal value in ‐z and ‐y planes but with a 68% higher value in the ‐x plane (parallel to sedimentary bedding planes) for the pretreated sample, reducing to only 30% higher for the post‐treated sample. The intrinsic permeability of the post‐treatment sample increased by one order of magnitude and showed very close agreement between the modelled and experimental results.  相似文献   

7.
Two chalk data sets from the Central North Sea (UK/Norway and Denmark) with a similar lithological classification and porosity values (5–20%) have a difference in permeability of up to three orders of magnitude. The method of measuring permeability was different for the two data sets: samples from UK/Norway were measured by transient pulse decay (TPD), while the Danish samples were measured by routine core analysis. Petrological and petrophysical characterization of samples from the two data sets have revealed that all samples display a similar range of rock properties; the differences are not due to regional facies variations. It is likely that the low permeability values reported by TPD have more validity than routine core analyses in measuring lower porosity and permeability chalk (5–20% porosity, <0.01 mD). The fact that large sections of North Sea chalk potentially have much lower permeability than previously reported has widespread implications for petroleum migration and entrapment, and overpressure generation.  相似文献   

8.
B. Jung  G. Garven  J. R. Boles 《Geofluids》2014,14(2):234-250
Fault permeability may vary through time due to tectonic deformations, transients in pore pressure and effective stress, and mineralization associated with water‐rock reactions. Time‐varying permeability will affect subsurface fluid migration rates and patterns of petroleum accumulation in densely faulted sedimentary basins such as those associated with the borderland basins of Southern California. This study explores the petroleum fluid dynamics of this migration. As a multiphase flow and petroleum migration case study on the role of faults, computational models for both episodic and continuous hydrocarbon migration are constructed to investigate large‐scale fluid flow and petroleum accumulation along a northern section of the Newport‐Inglewood fault zone in the Los Angeles basin, Southern California. The numerical code solves the governing equations for oil, water, and heat transport in heterogeneous and anisotropic geologic cross sections but neglects flow in the third dimension for practical applications. Our numerical results suggest that fault permeability and fluid pressure fluctuations are crucial factors for distributing hydrocarbon accumulations associated with fault zones, and they also play important roles in controlling the geologic timing for reservoir filling. Episodic flow appears to enhance hydrocarbon accumulation more strongly by enabling stepwise build‐up in oil saturation in adjacent sedimentary formations due to temporally high pore pressure and high permeability caused by periodic fault rupture. Under assumptions that fault permeability fluctuate within the range of 1–1000 millidarcys (10?15–10?12 m2) and fault pressures fluctuate within 10–80% of overpressure ratio, the estimated oil volume in the Inglewood oil field (approximately 450 million barrels oil equivalent) can be accumulated in about 24 000 years, assuming a seismically induced fluid flow event occurs every 2000 years. This episodic petroleum migration model could be more geologically important than a continuous‐flow model, when considering the observed patterns of hydrocarbons and seismically active tectonic setting of the Los Angeles basin.  相似文献   

9.
A variety of data indicate that the Carbonate aquifer in southern Manitoba is a heterogeneous and anisotropic aquifer wherein groundwater flow follows preferred flow path networks. Specific capacity tests show that aquifer transmissivity can vary by up to four orders of magnitude within 1 km. Geostatistical analysis reveals a strong anisotropy in the transmissivity field, with better spatial continuity in NE–SW and NW–SE directions, coincident with the dominant orientations of fractures observed in bedrock exposures. However, discrepancies between the orientation of highest fracture density and best transmissivity continuity suggest that either additional geological factors control the preferred flow network or there is a biased representation of the fracture pattern because all direct fracture observations came from the northern part of the study area. In an effort to investigate whether the geographically biased fracture data set represents the fracture pattern for the whole region, Landsat images and digital elevation maps were processed to extract linear features that may indicate subsurface fracture zones in areas where bedrock is covered by glacial sediments. The results suggest a consistent fracture pattern throughout the study area, indicating that the two observed fracture groups might have gone through different processes in terms of permeability development. Alteration by mineral cementation and dissolution along fracture surfaces may have preferentially improved the fracture permeability in one orientation, while reducing it in the other. The in situ stress field is also believed to play a major role in the preferred regional flow network. This paper discusses the evidence for the preferred flow path network and possible geological factors controlling aquifer anisotropy in this region.  相似文献   

10.
The hypothesis that Kohout thermal convection may have induced the massive dolomitization of the 60 m thick lowest more reefal unit in well Unda [top of Great Bahama Bank (GBB)] is evaluated through numerical modelling. A two‐dimensional (2‐D) section, including lithological and petrophysical data, together with datings for the sediments of the GBB, was used in the basin model TEMISPACK to reconstruct the history of the whole platform, with a focus on the reef unit. Simulations showed that during high sea‐level periods, Kohout convection is a valid mechanism in the settings of the GBB, although the convection cell remains flat in most cases because of high permeability anisotropy. This mechanism induces rapid fluid flow in the superficial as well as in the deeper parts of the platform, with velocities of at least two orders of magnitude higher than with compaction alone. Lithology appears as a strong control of fluid circulations at the margin scale through the permeability anisotropy, for which a critical value lies between values of 10 and 100. The reefal unit in Unda is part of a larger area determined by the lithologic distribution, in which flow velocities are significantly higher than in the rest of the platform. These velocities are high enough to bring the magnesium necessary to precipitate the observed amounts of dolomite, within durations in agreement with the available time of post‐reef deposition high sea level(s). However, neither fluid flow pattern nor flow velocities are able to explain the preferential massive dolomitization of the lower reef unit and the complete absence of dolomite in the upper one.  相似文献   

11.
Progressive cementation and lithification significantly influence the mechanical and hydrologic properties of granular porous media through elastic stiffening and permeability reduction. We use published data that quantify the effect of grain‐bridging cement distribution in granular porous media at the grain scale to investigate the influence of variable cement content on the competing roles of hydrologic and mechanical effects on fluid flow and deformation at the reservoir scale. The impact of quartz overgrowths in natural samples was quantified using a bond‐to‐grain ratio, allowing a geologically meaningful interpretation of percent cement in conceptual models of quartz cementation. An increase in the bond‐to‐grain ratio from 1 to 2.2 (~1–15% cement by volume) results in a 1.4‐fold increase in Young's modulus and an ~1000‐fold decrease in permeability. The hydromechanical properties of a suite of variably cemented natural samples are used as input into two‐dimensional, kilometre‐scale, axially symmetric poroelastic models of an isotropic confined aquifer. Models isolating the hydrologic and mechanical effects of cementation indicate that the hydrologic properties dominate the overall mechanical response, controlling both the volume and magnitude of deformation. Incorporation of changes in hydrologic properties due to cementation is therefore essential to capturing the first‐order physics of coupled aquifer behavior.  相似文献   

12.
A. Eckert  X. Liu  P. Connolly 《Geofluids》2016,16(2):231-248
Pore pressure and fluid flow during the deformational history of geologic structures are directly influenced by tectonic deformation events. In this contribution, 2D plane strain finite element analysis is used to study the influence of different permeability distributions on the pore pressure field and associated flow regimes during the evolution of visco‐elastic single‐layer buckle folds. The buckling‐induced fluid flow regimes indicate that flow directions and, to a lesser degree, their magnitudes vary significantly throughout the deformation and as a function of the stratigraphic permeability distribution. The modelling results suggest that the volumetric strain and the permeability distribution significantly affect the resulting flow regime at different stages of fold development. For homogeneous permeability models (> 10?21 m2), low strain results in a mostly pervasive fluid flow regime and is in agreement with previous studies. For larger strain conditions, fluid focusing occurs in the buckling layer towards the top of the fold hinge. For low permeabilities (<10?21 m2), local focused flow regimes inside the buckling layer emerge throughout the deformation history. For models featuring a low‐permeability layer embedded in a high‐permeability matrix or sandwiched between high‐permeability layers, focused flow regimes inside the folded layer result throughout the deformation history, but with significant differences in the flow vectors of the surrounding layers. Fluid flow vectors induced by the fold can result in different, even reversed, directions depending on the amount of strain. In summary, fluid flow regimes during single‐layer buckling can change from pervasive to focused and fluid flow vectors can be opposite at different strain levels, that is the flow vectors change significantly through time. Thus, a complete understanding of fluid flow regimes associated with single‐layer buckle folds requires consideration of the complete deformation history of the fold.  相似文献   

13.
H. A. SHELDON  A. ORD 《Geofluids》2005,5(4):272-288
Mineralization of brittle fault zones is associated with sudden dilation, and the corresponding changes in porosity, permeability and fluid pressure, that occur during fault slip events. The resulting fluid pressure gradients cause fluid to flow into and along the fault until it is sealed. The volume of fluid that can pass through the deforming region depends on the degree of dilation, the porosity and permeability of the fault and wall rocks, and the rate of fault sealing. A numerical model representing a steep fault cutting through a horizontal seal is used to investigate patterns of fluid flow following a dilatant fault slip event. The model is initialized with porosity, permeability and fluid pressure representing the static mechanical state of the system immediately after such an event. Fault sealing is represented by a specified evolution of porosity, coupled to changes in permeability and fluid pressure, with the rate of porosity reduction being constrained by independent estimates of the rate of fault sealing by pressure solution. The general pattern of fluid flow predicted by the model is of initial flow into the fault from all directions, followed by upward flow driven by overpressure beneath the seal. The integrated fluid flux through the fault after a single failure event is insufficient to account for observed mineralization in faults; mineralization would require multiple fault slip events. Downward flow is predicted if the wall rocks below the seal are less permeable than those above. This phenomenon could at least partially explain the occurrence of uranium deposits in reactivated basement faults that cross an unconformity between relatively impermeable basement and overlying sedimentary rocks.  相似文献   

14.
T. GRAF  R. THERRIEN 《Geofluids》2009,9(2):138-152
Density-driven geothermal flow in 3-D fractured rock is investigated and compared with density-driven haline flow. For typical matrix and fracture hydraulic conductivities, haline flow tends to be unstable (convecting) while geothermal flow is stable (non-convecting). Thermal diffusivity is generally three orders of magnitude larger than haline diffusivity and, as a result, large heat conduction diminishes growth of geothermal instabilities while low mass diffusion enables formation of unstable haline 'fingering' within fractures. A series of thermal flow simulations is presented to identify stable and unstable conditions for a wide range of hydraulic conductivities for matrix and fractures. The classic Rayleigh stability criterion can be applied to classify these simulations when fracture aperture is very small. However, the Rayleigh criterion is not applicable when the porous matrix hydraulic conductivity is very small, because stabilizing fracture–matrix heat conduction is independent of matrix hydraulic conductivity. In that case, the numerically estimated critical fracture conductivity is nine orders of magnitude larger than the theoretically calculated critical fracture conductivity based on Rayleigh theory. The numerical stability analysis presented here may be used as a guideline to predict if a geothermal system in 3-D fractured rock is stable or unstable.  相似文献   

15.
Understanding the effect of changing stress conditions on multiphase flow in porous media is of fundamental importance for many subsurface activities including enhanced oil recovery, water drawdown from aquifers, soil confinement, and geologic carbon storage. Geomechanical properties of complex porous systems are dynamically linked to flow conditions, but their feedback relationship is often oversimplified due to the difficulty of representing pore‐scale stress deformation and multiphase flow characteristics in high fidelity. In this work, we performed pore‐scale experiments of single‐ and multiphase flow through bead packs at different confining pressure conditions to elucidate compaction‐dependent characteristics of granular packs and their impact on fluid flow. A series of drainage and imbibition cycles were conducted on a water‐wet, soda‐lime glass bead pack under varying confining stress conditions. Simultaneously, X‐ray micro‐CT was used to visualize and quantify the degree of deformation and fluid distribution corresponding with each stress condition and injection cycle. Micro‐CT images were segmented using a gradient‐based method to identify fluids (e.g., oil and water), and solid phase redistribution throughout the different experimental stages. Changes in porosity, tortuosity, and specific surface area were quantified as a function of applied confining pressure. Results demonstrate varying degrees of sensitivity of these properties to confining pressure, which suggests that caution must be taken when considering scalability of these properties for practical modeling purposes. Changes in capillary number with confining pressure are attributed to the increase in pore velocity as a result of pore contraction. However, this increase in pore velocity was found to have a marginal impact on average phase trapping at different confining pressures.  相似文献   

16.
The permeability of continental crust is so highly variable that it is often considered to defy systematic characterization. However, despite this variability, some order has been gleaned from globally compiled data. What accounts for the apparent coherence of mean permeability in the continental crust (and permeability–depth relations) on a very large scale? Here we argue that large‐scale crustal permeability adjusts to accommodate rates of internal and external forcing. In the deeper crust, internal forcing – fluxes induced by metamorphism, magmatism, and mantle degassing – is dominant, whereas in the shallow crust, external forcing – the vigor of the hydrologic cycle – is a primary control. Crustal petrologists have long recognized the likelihood of a causal relation between fluid flux and permeability in the deep, ductile crust, where fluid pressures are typically near‐lithostatic. It is less obvious that such a relation should pertain in the relatively cool, brittle upper crust, where near‐hydrostatic fluid pressures are the norm. We use first‐order calculations and numerical modeling to explore the hypothesis that upper‐crustal permeability is influenced by the magnitude of external fluid sources, much as lower‐crustal permeability is influenced by the magnitude of internal fluid sources. We compare model‐generated permeability structures with various observations of crustal permeability.  相似文献   

17.
M. Wangen 《Geofluids》2001,1(4):273-287
Overpressure build‐up in compartments, and communication between overpressured compartments across faults are studied with simple analytical and numerical models. It is shown that the excess pressure in a (vertical) one‐dimensional, one‐compartment model can be written as the sum of the excess pressure generated in the seal above the compartment, and a second part, which is due to the expulsion of fluid from the compartment and the rocks below. The one‐compartment model is generalized to a two‐compartment model, which accounts for the fluid communication between the compartments through a fault zone. The volume rates of flow through the seals and the fault zone are shown to be the weighted mean of the volume rates of the one‐dimensional, one‐compartment model. The normalized weights are given by dimensionless numbers, called fault–seal numbers, which control the communication between the compartments. A fault–seal number much less than unity implies that the fault is a stronger barrier for the fluid flow than the seal. A fault–seal number larger than unity implies the opposite: that the seal is a stronger barrier than the fault. The conditions for isolated compartments and other regimes are identified in terms of the fault–seal numbers. It is discussed how the compartment fault–seal numbers can be computed when the permeability is given in the fault zone. The results given by the analytical compartment models are demonstrated and validated with two‐dimensional numerical (finite element) simulations.  相似文献   

18.
Slug interference tests using an array of multilevel active and monitoring wells permit enhanced aquifer characterization. Analyses of these field test data rely on numerical inverse models. In order to provide synthetic data sets and to have a better understanding of the flow mechanisms, we used a three-dimensional finite element analysis (FEHM) to explore the effects of idealized, stratigraphical (strata) and structural (faults) heterogeneities with low permeability values on the transient head field that is associated with slug tests in an aquifer. Firstly, we tested our model on homogeneous aquifers and the effectiveness of our modeling strategies have been validated via the excellent agreement of our modeling results with those of the semi-analytical model of Liu & Butler (1995) . In our heterogeneity investigations, we embedded vertical and horizontal zones of lower permeability into a homogenous, isotropic, and confined aquifer to represent low-permeability faults and strata respectively. A slugged interval is located at the center of the aquifer. Effects of strata thickness and permeability contrast as well as other effects associated with the offset of low-permeability strata were explored. In particular, modeling results are represented by contour maps of peak travel time and maximum head perturbation of generated hydraulic pulses. Furthermore, various phenomena, such as real-time matrix diffusion, intermittent matrix–fracture interactions, and faster pulse arrival through a longer flow trajectory, are concretely presented in the snapshots of head perturbations in the aquifer. Our finite element modeling provides useful information for understanding the behaviors of diffusive pressure propagation in an aquifer with stratigraphical and/or structural heterogeneities, and for designing hydraulic tomography to enhance aquifer characterization.  相似文献   

19.
J. J. Adams  S. Bachu 《Geofluids》2002,2(4):257-271
Physical properties of formation waters in sedimentary basins can vary by more than 25% for density and by one order of magnitude for viscosity. Density differences may enhance or retard flow driven by other mechanisms and can initiate buoyancy‐driven flow. For a given driving force, the flow rate and injectivity depend on viscosity and permeability. Thus, variations in the density and viscosity of formation waters may have or had a significant effect on the flow pattern in a sedimentary basin, with consequences for various basin processes. Therefore, it is critical to correctly estimate water properties at formation conditions for proper representation and interpretation of present flow systems, and for numerical simulations of basin evolution, hydrocarbon migration, ore genesis, and fate of injected fluids in sedimentary basins. Algorithms published over the years to calculate water density and viscosity as a function of temperature, pressure and salinity are based on empirical fitting of laboratory‐measured properties of predominantly NaCl solutions, but also field brines. A review and comparison of various algorithms are presented here, both in terms of applicability range and estimates of density and viscosity. The paucity of measured formation‐water properties at in situ conditions hinders a definitive conclusion regarding the validity of any of these algorithms. However, the comparison indicates the versatility of the various algorithms in various ranges of conditions found in sedimentary basins. The applicability of these algorithms to the density of formation waters in the Alberta Basin is also examined using a high‐quality database of 4854 water analyses. Consideration is also given to the percentage of cations that are heavier than Na in the waters.  相似文献   

20.
The origins of increased stream flow and spring discharge following earthquakes have been the subject of controversy, in large part because there are many models to explain observations and few measurements suitable for distinguishing between hypotheses. On October 30, 2007 a magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred near the Alum Rock springs, California, USA. Within a day we documented a several‐fold increase in discharge. Over the following year, we have monitored a gradual return towards pre‐earthquake properties, but for the largest springs there appears to be a permanent increase in discharge. The Alum Rock springs discharge waters that are a mixture between modern (shallow) meteoric water and old (deep) connate waters expelled by regional transpression. After the earthquake, there was a small and temporary decrease in the fraction of connate water in the largest springs. Accompanying this geochemical change was a small (1–2°C) temperature decrease. Combined with the rapid response, this implies that the increased discharge has a shallow origin. Increased discharge at these springs occurs both for earthquakes that cause static volumetric expansion and for those that cause contraction, supporting models in which dynamic strains are responsible for the subsurface changes that cause flow to increase. We make a quantitative comparison between the observed changes and model predictions for three types of models: (i) a permanent increase in permeability; (ii) an increase in permeability followed by a gradual decrease to its pre‐earthquake value; and (iii) an increase of hydraulic head in the groundwater system discharging at the springs. We show that models in which the permeability of the fracture system feeding the springs increases after the earthquake are in general consistent with the changes in discharge. The postseismic decrease in discharge could either reflect the groundwater system adjusting to the new, higher permeability or a gradual return of permeability to pre‐earthquake values; the available data do not allow us to distinguish between these two scenarios. However, the response of these springs to another earthquake will provide critical constraints on the changes that occur in the subsurface and should permit a test of all three types of models.  相似文献   

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