Classification Analysis of World Economic Regions

Economic classifications of countries are of continuing utility for comparative and analytic purposes. However, traditional methods of arriving at classifications are often ad hoc, subjective, and imprecise, not permitting the assignments to be used for closer analysis. Discriminant analysis is used in this paper to isolate a time‐specific set of economic factors delimiting economic state categories that correspond to core‐periphery states. The core‐periphery framework is shown to be a special case of a hierarchical market scheme. The purposes of this work are (1) to create a theoretically grounded, empirically derived classification over several time periods to permit dynamic comparisons to be made and provide an explanation of change in the global economy, and (2) to provide feedback information from the classification to supply the necessary rigor and quantitative insight to the world‐systems theoretical framework. Results of the analysis suggest that different economic variables provide varying levels of explanation at different times. In particular, variables representing factor endowment provide a greater measure of explanation early in the sequence (for example, 1960) while trade and investment measures are of greater importance in the latter part of the study sequence (for example, 1990). OPEC countries significantly bifurcate the world‐economy classification in 1970 and exhibit separate class characteristics. Even within the short time period, a number of countries are shown to transit among the classes. The model is also able to capture the dependence structure implicit in the world‐systems framework.     

Unrest in the Arab world: why the 2011 uprisings still matter

This article reviews the current state of analysis of the 2011 Arab uprisings. It argues that valuable literature on the uprisings is emerging just at a time when the international policy agenda has moved away from 2011's flirtation with visions of a democratic Middle East. This literature presents a timely reminder that the uprisings were part of long‐term processes of political change, rather than isolated phenomena. Understanding the very different post‐uprising trajectories of different Arab countries requires comparative analysis of the political economy, state institutions, the role of the security sector and strategies of opposition movements, among other factors. Moreover, comparative experiences from transitions in other regions indicate that the conflicts, economic problems and social polarization that have ensued in most of the transition countries are not evidence of an Arab exception, but, rather, have parallels with political transitions elsewhere, which have rarely been peaceful or simple. Compared to 2011, the perceived costs of political change are higher today, while the gains remain uncertain. But the drivers of unrest remain unresolved; and a small minority will seek change through brutal and violent means. Western policy‐makers need to understand what is driving these movements. Yet they also, crucially, need to understand what is motivating and preoccupying the larger publics in the Arab world, in order to build broad‐based relations with these countries, and avoid inadvertently empower violent groups by allowing them to set the political agenda.     

沈阳经济区经济重心的演变及其轨迹分析

沈阳经济区作为国家新型工业化综合配套改革试验区,对其区域差异的研究具有重要的意义。通过研究区域自1992年以来经济重心的动态演化过程,得出该地区经济发展县际差异的动态变化规律,并且就其演化的机制因子进行了分析。研究表明:沈阳经济区经济重心主要介于沈阳市苏家屯区和辽阳市灯塔县之间,基本接近几何中心,并与几何中心的距离呈现不断缩小的趋势,表明区域经济发展的不平衡性在减弱。19年来,经济重心总的移动趋势为先由东北向西南移动,再由西南向东北推进,但移动轨迹呈现出一定的曲折和波动,其年移动距离和方向与区域经济发展水平、速度及政策等显现正相关关系,反映出区域不同时期发展战略政策的变化。     

中国海洋经济发展空间差异分析

90年代后期,中国海洋经济增长迅速,但区域差异呈现增大的趋势。文章分别从海洋经济发展总体水平、发展速度、产业结构变化方面入手研究不同尺度的中国海洋经济空间差异。在研究中利用标准差、变异系数、加权变异系数以及塞尔指数等指标分析中国海洋经济的省际差异以及北、中、南三大地带内及地带间差异的演变趋势。绘制罗仑兹曲线来反映海洋产业的空间集聚扩散情况。并指出出现区域差异的原因主要是资源禀赋、产业空间集聚、国家政策和外商投资倾斜以及历史基础等方面,最后提出缩小海洋经济区域差异的建议。     

Economic Development and Poverty Reduction in Korea: Governing Multifunctional Institutions

Combining economic development and poverty reduction is a challenge for developing countries. In the search for mechanisms that integrate both goals, this article examines the Republic of Korea's development strategy, which transformed one of Asia's poorest nations into an industrialized country with low levels of poverty. The authors investigate the state–society nexus in which Korea's developmental state has operated and look at the role of governance for economic development, focusing especially on multifunctioning institutions performing for economic growth and poverty reduction. The article provides strategic suggestions for developing countries on managing effectively within institutional constraints and moving beyond a simple emphasis on good governance.     

Regional cleavages in African politics: Persistent electoral blocs and territorial oppositions

Do socio-economic cleavages shape electoral dynamics in African countries? Previous individual-level and party systems research on African politics has de-emphasized socio-economic factors, contributing to the common view that ethnic cleavages and short-term ethnic alliances define politics both locally and nationally. Focusing on Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi, we draw on methods in electoral geography to offer a spatial analysis of geographic patterns in constituency-level electoral returns over three decades that reveals the existence of persistent regional voting blocs that, in their temporal stability and multiethnic character, are not well explained by prevailing theory. The anomalies open the door to a reinterpretation national electoral structure and dynamics in the three countries that takes the geographic clustering of the persistent voting blocs as a clue to their etiology. We propose an interpretation that focuses on core-periphery cleavages in national electorates, following Lipset and Rokkan's (1967) classic model of territorial oppositions in countries undergoing political and economic integration and modernization. DHS data and proxies for regional economic activity support this interpretation. Socio-economic cleavages of the type explored in comparative political economy literatures on spatial inequality and territorial politics may be more salient in African electoral politics than previously thought.     

The Economic Geography of Australia and Its Analysis: From Industrial to Post‐Industrial Regions

The Australian economy has experienced profound change over the last five decades, moving from an industrial to a post‐industrial structure. This transformation has had far‐reaching implications for the nature of economic activity in Australia and has provided the backdrop for the evolving analysis of the nation's space economy. The paper argues that three interrelated themes underpin much of the work of economic geographers in Australia: the impacts of globalisation on Australia's space economy; neoliberalism and the governance of regions; and policy‐focused analysis of regions, their history and prospects. The paper concludes that economic geography will continue to make important intellectual and practical contributions to Australia in the near future as the reshaping of the Australian economy continues and as new challenges reshape the nation's regions.     

专业镇经济模式的形成机制、特征与发展策略研究--以佛山市为例

专业镇是我国沿海经济发达地区特有的一种经济现象,珠江三角洲是专业镇集中地之一,不仅数量众多、类型丰富,而且规模大,其“一镇一业,一村一品”的专业化生产方式与超10亿元的经济规模引起了政府与学术界的重视。本以佛山市为例,在对佛山市专业镇进行空间分析的基础上,探讨专业镇的产生及其本质,分析佛山市专业镇形成的动力机制、类型与发展阶段,总结了佛山市专业镇的特点及存在的问题,并针对政府与企业分别提出相应的发展策略。     

Julfar and the urbanisation of Southeast Arabia

The fourteenth-sixteenth-century town of Julfar (al-Mataf) in Ras al-Khaimah (UAE) is one of the most fully investigated archaeological sites in the Gulf, having been the subject of seven different excavation projects. Evidence from the published reports, when brought together, provides a detailed and coherent picture of the development of the site from a small fishing community in the mid-fourteenth century to a fully urbanised settlement by the mid-fifteenth century, and then attests to its eventual decline and abandonment by the late sixteenth century.
Julfar was the first example of true urbanism in this part of Arabia, and therefore marks a significant historical turning point. Its development is believed to have been linked to the expanding mercantile economy of Hormuz, but it occurred at the same time as a period of spectacular rural growth in its own immediate hinterland, evidence for which has been produced by archaeological field survey. Together these phenomena suggest the development of a local market economy, perhaps for the first time, which would have had significant implications for the social and economic structure of the area.     

TESTING THE SPATIAL SCALE AND THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN REGIONAL MODELS (A CONTRIBUTION TO SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS)*

This article addresses the problem of specification uncertainty in modeling spatial economic theories in stochastic form. It is ascertained that the traditional approach to spatial econometric modeling does not adequately deal with the type and extent of specification uncertainty commonly encountered in spatial economic analyses. Two alternative spatial econometric modeling procedures proposed in the literature are reviewed and shown to be suitable for analyzing systematically two sources of specification uncertainty, viz., the level of aggregation and the spatio-temporal dynamic structure in multiregional econometric models. The usefulness of one of these specification procedures is illustrated by the construction of a simple multiregional model for The Netherlands.     

改革开放以来中国国际影响力的提升及其空间拓展机制

采用全球媒体报道事件大数据，依据空间相互作用理论和距离衰减理论，构建国家影响力评价模型，揭示中国在全球国家体系中的地位和作用，刻画其国家影响力的演变轨迹和影响空间拓展的过程，并挖掘海量事件背后隐藏的宏观格局形成的微观驱动机制。结果表明：①1980—2015年，世界大国影响力指数呈现良好的时空惯性，欧亚大陆的边缘地带是国家影响力指数高值的分布区域。②中国国家影响力指数的提升主要依靠其经济实力的增强，提升过程表现出“先平稳后快速”的阶段特征，不同阶段呈现出不同的对外开放和外交政策特征。③与中国发生事件联系的国家（地区）基本实现全球覆盖，2015年体现为对“一带一路”沿线国家影响作用的大幅上升。④经济发展的推动作用是宏观因素，与发达大国的耦合关系、主动的对外联系、政府主导的国际合作是中国国家影响力提升的微观事件驱动因素。     

The Pilgrimage Town of Lourdes

Pilgrims from 111 different countries cause the character of spatial phenomena in Lourdes, France. The influence of the pilgrimage is first reflected in demographic developments and then in the economic structure, which has been transformed from the agricultural to the service sector. The pilgrims' activities are also responsible for the distribution of different buildings such as various places of worship, hotels, restaurants and shops selling devotional articles.     

European Corridors as Carriers of Dynamic Agglomeration Externalities?

Transport corridors are viewed as a promising way forward in European Union (EU) transport policy, assumed to contribute positively to regional economic development. However, the validity of this assumption is not evident. The aim of this paper is to empirically test whether agglomeration economies in European transport corridor regions are positively related to indicators of regional economic development compared to regions outside the scope of corridors. The results build on the notion that the type of agglomeration economy in combination with the structure of the economy matters for prospects of structural economic growth in different regions. In this way, the analysis not only contributes to enhancing the empirical scrutiny of the corridor concept in EU transport policy, but also provides new insights into how corridors contribute to regional economic growth. We find only limited evidence for a corridor effect across European regions on productivity and employment growth externalities. Instead, we find a large degree of spatial heterogeneity interacting with corridors—a heterogeneity that has been little recognized in EU policies. We suggest that recent attention to place-based development strategies may accord well with the kinds of agglomeration effects related to corridor development observed in this study.     

西方高端人才跨国流动研究述评

基于文献分析法,对西方高端人才跨国流动研究进行述评,探讨其跨国流动的空间特征、动力机制和社会影响。跨国人才主要的流动方向为发展中国家流向发达国家,发达国家之间进行人才交换,以及发达国家向新兴工业化国家回流,在空间上高度集中在发达国家和新兴工业化国家的世界城市。其流动机制包括全球政治经济与文化转型、跨国流动渠道、政府管制以及流动者个体决策。其为流出地带来人才流失的困扰以及人才回流的红利,为流入地带来社会分化、居住隔离和种族排斥等社会问题。最后,就国内学者开展相关研究提出一些建议。     

Ceaser's American Political Science

Abstract

The transition and subsequent consolidation of countries that move from an authoritarian to a democratic regime have been widely explained by factors such as the international environment, economic conditions, political culture, institutions, and most prominently, elite behavior.¹ But although elites can make decisions about the institutional, political, and economic future of a country in transition, they cannot guarantee that those decisions will be implemented or supported by the populace, or that the incipient democratic system will stabilize. What is frequently neglected in these elite-centered accounts of democratic transitions, then, is civil society and its links to elites.     

A Hybrid Framework for Space–Time Modeling of Environmental Data. 环境数据时空建模的混合框架

The space–time autoregressive integrated moving average (STARIMA) model family provides useful tools for modeling space–time processes that exhibit stationarity (or near stationarity) in space and time. However, a more general method for routine use and efficient computation is needed to model the nonlinearities and nonstationarities of environmental space–time series. This article presents a hybrid framework combining machine learning and statistical methods to address this issue. It uses an artificial neural network (ANN) to extract global deterministic (nonlinear) space–time trends and a STARIMA model to extract local stochastic space–time variations in data. A four‐stage procedure is proposed for analyzing and modeling space–time series. The proposed framework and procedures are applied to forecast annual average temperature at 137 national meteorological stations in China. The results demonstrate that the hybrid framework achieves better forecasting accuracy than the STARIMA model alone. This finding suggests that the combination of machine learning and statistical methods provides a very powerful tool for analyzing and modeling space–time series of environmental data that have strong spatial nonlinear and nonstationary components.     

Economic Integration and the Politics of Independence

Abstract. Are nationalism and international economic integration irreconcilable? This paper explores the theoretical connections between these two phenomena and develops a framework to assess the implications of international economic integration for nationalist movements in the developed West. We focus upon the structural context of nationalism in democratic societies, emphasising the impact of changes in the international political economy and the influence of domestic institutions. Although the demand for secession may not stem from economic calculations, the expected costs and benefits of independence are constraints to nationalist mobilisation and are conditioned by the structure of the international political economy. We identify three ideal types of international structures and discuss how the strategies and prospects of nationalist movements are shaped within each of them. We find that a structure of ‘institutionalised interdependence’ is most conducive to nationalist mobilisation in a liberal democratic context, but the impact of economic integration depends largely upon conditions defined by domestic institutional structures.     

Strengthening Innovation Through Closer Bilateral Integration

While the Canadian economy has outperformed the US economy over the past decade by several macroeconomic indicators, both economies have been characterized by relatively slow real economic growth and relatively high unemployment rates. One focus of bilateral cooperation that could promote improved economic, social, and environmental conditions in both countries over time is scientific and technological (S&T) innovation. It is widely acknowledged that technological change associated with innovation has been the single most important contributor to productivity growth, and it is also the likely source of success in meeting major public policy challenges facing both countries in areas such as renewable energy and health care.     

闽台经济发展动能测算比较

福建作为我国海峡西岸经济区的主体,经济发展备受瞩目。闽台隔海相望,在气候、地形等自然背景和经济、文化等人文背景上具有一定的相似性。这使得台湾工业化过程的发展政策和经验能够为福建当前和未来的产业结构发展提供借鉴。本文类比物体动能,对不同工业化时期的闽台经济、三次产业和制造业发展动能进行测算比较,并结合闽台不同时期的政策进行分析,得出结论:(1)福建经济发展动能起点高、增长快。(2)目前福建第二产业明显领先第三产业,产业结构优化升级速度快。(3)闽台在经济发展重点的变化上具有一定程度的相似性且当前重点行业具有一定互补性。福建可利用闽台区域条件互补优势,借鉴台湾发展政策,制定工业化中后期产业发展政策。     

Spatial Inequality Between and Within Urban Areas: The Case of Israeli Cities

Central areas enjoy greater efficiency in the production of goods and services than do outlying areas. Because of the inherent advantages of central areas over outlying areas, disparities among regions do not vanish over time. On the contrary, centripetal forces increase inequalities across space. The phenomena of increased globalization, trade liberalization and treaties among countries not only enable the flow of labour, products (export) and foreign direct investment but also help reduce spatial inequality between countries. These phenomena also induce greater spatial economic concentration within a country. Thus, although disparities among countries decrease, a widening gap is observed between regions within countries and within large urban areas. In the empirical part, we analyse the general patterns of spatial inequality found among 55 localities in Israel with population size over 20,000. Looking at the spatial inequality relationship, both within and between cities in Israel, we show how all economic indicators measured, including inequality, decrease with distance from the core. Localities in the periphery that experience greater equality also experience lower average income, lower education, less self-employment and more unemployment.