REGIONAL POPULATION–EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio‐temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally do not include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that allowing for economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially in forecasting. An econometric model of population–employment dynamics, in which sectoral variations in economic development are explicitly taken into account, is applied to a large urban planning policy proposal in the Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest that population dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly on intersectoral dynamics. Intersectoral dynamics appear as important drivers of regional sectoral employment changes; they are even more important than population changes, and their effect shows up clearly even within the Dutch institutional context where strict regulatory housing and planning restrictions are enforced.     

What drives the spatial wage premium in formal and informal labor markets? The case of Ecuador

This article investigates the incidence of agglomeration externalities in Ecuador, a small-sized, middle-income developing country. In particular, we analyze the role of the informal sector within these relations, since informal employment accounts for a significant part of total employment in the developing countries. Using individual level data and instrumental variable techniques, we investigate the impact of spatial externalities, in terms of population density, local specialization and urban size, on the wages of workers in Ecuadorian cities. The results show that spatial externalities matter also for a small developing country. Moreover, analysis of the interaction between spatial externalities and informality shows that, on average, workers employed in the informal sector do not enjoy significant benefits from agglomeration externalities. Finally, by investigating the possible channels behind spatial agglomeration gains we show that the advantages from agglomeration for formal sector workers may well be accounted for by better job-quality matches and, to a lesser extent, by learning externalities. For informal sector workers, our findings also suggest possible gains from job changes, which offset a penalty for remaining employed in the same occupation.     

Policies to promote employment and preserve cultural heritage in the handicraft sector

For many countries around the world, the handicraft sector has served as a means of maintaining and promoting cultural and artistic traditions. It has also been an important source of employment and income. However, the contributions of this sector to total employment and income are not well understood. In this paper, we present data on employment in the handicraft sector in a number of countries in the developing world. We find evidence that this sector employs over 10% of the labor force in many countries, and that further documentation of this employment is needed in order to design policies to maximize opportunities in this sector. We also identify policies that governments can undertake to preserve the cultural heritage embodied in handicrafts and to promote the export of these products. The importance of these policy recommendations is highlighted with the case of Peru, which has faced considerable import competition in the handicraft sector in recent years.     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

Neoliberalism and Suburban Employment: Western Sydney in the 1990s

During the past 15 years metropolitan planning strategies of the NSW state government have done little to address the spatial distribution of either employment or labour market equity within the metropolis. In the fast‐growing outer western suburbs, the government has focused on attracting business investment to increase the stock of local jobs and to improve employment ‘self‐sufficiency’— a dominantly neoliberal policy framework. This paper explores a widening gulf between the reality of outer urban change and this policy framework by considering changes in the location of jobs and in the employment experiences of residents in Greater Western Sydney (GWS). Evidence is drawn from census journey‐to‐work data (1991–2001). While holding a majority of manufacturing jobs in Sydney, GWS also experienced continued growth of jobs in service industries during the 1990s. Yet the relative importance of employment in the city's fast‐growth finance and business services sector still lags well behind that of inner and northern parts of the city. The focus on growing the regional stock of jobs has not addressed problems of labour market access faced by residents of particular localities and the goal of employment self‐sufficiency has not delivered greater equity to outer suburban labour markets. A focus on sufficiency of access to employment for residents of GWS draws attention not only to regional stocks of jobs but also to the provision of social infrastructure and state‐provided services to outer suburban populations as they continue to expand.     

TECHNIQUES FOR INVESTIGATING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF CITIES

Economic-base analysis is applied to 15 small towns of Vologda Oblast in northern European Russia in an attempt to analyze the provision of services in these urban places. The employment structure of the town of Kadnikov, based on a “firm-by-firm” approach, is used as the standard to prorate total employment into basic and nonbasic components. The Kadnikov standard is then applied to the other towns and any excess in employment beyond the nonbasic Kadnikov standard is allocated to the basic sector. The higher proportion of basic employment in some of the study towns is interpreted as reflecting inadequate development of service activities. The analysis suggests that the small towns of Vologda Oblast are relatively well served by education, public health and retail trade-at any rate they are no worse off than the standard town, Kadnikov-but lag in the provision of housing and repair services. Economic-base concepts developed by J. W. Alexander and G. Alexandersson in the 1950s are used as a point of departure.     

Propositions on Trade Unions and Informal Employment in Times of Globalisation

The purpose of this contribution is to identify some of the issues which need to be addressed in order to advance the organisation of workers, and in particular women workers, in informal employment. The organisation of these workers, collectively described as the "informal sector", represents an existential challenge to the trade union movement: unless and until it puts itself in a position to effectively address this challenge, it cannot halt its decline, but in order to do so it has to undergo fundamental changes in its culture, its self-awareness and the way it relates to society. The issue of organising the informal sector is at the heart of the necessary transformations the trade union movement must undergo to recover its potential as a global social force.     

Structural Change,the Social Policy Environment and Female Employment in Turkey

Since the 1970s, a series of demand and supply related changes have led to significant labour market transformations which have brought about a sustained increase in female employment throughout the world. While similar transformations have also been underway in Turkey, the country appears to be one of the rare exceptions to worldwide trends. During the last two decades both female labour force participation and female employment rates have declined at national level. In this article, two sets of questions are posed to explore the factors likely to influence female labour force participation. One set of questions pertains to the society‐specific dynamics of structural change in employment patterns in Turkey, with particular reference to the level and composition of employment in the service sector. A second set of questions is posed to examine labour market relations and the social policy environment in Turkey, and their impact on the demand for and supply of female labour. Current changes in the prevailing policy environment are considered to highlight a certain contradiction in the attitudes of decision makers who seem to be faced with a trade‐off between continuing adherence to conservative patriarchal values and the objectives of increasing labour force participation and combating poverty.     

Child and Adolescent Obesity and Employment Sector in Urban China

Despite its importance as a part of the economic reform in China, sectoral employment has been overlooked as a potential determinant of child and adolescent obesity (CAO). Using large-scale longitudinal data from surveys conducted from 1989 to 2006, this paper examines the relationship between the sector in which a parent is employed and CAO, with the sector being based on ownership and categorised as either state or non-state. Analyses of over 1700 children and adolescents show that children and adolescents whose parents work in the state sector are less likely to be obese. Patterns of sectoral employment's effect are robust across time periods, in fixed-effects models, and across multiple measures of obesity. Additionally, the paper shows that socioeconomic characteristics of the parent, such as income, education, and occupation, typically thought to be important predictors of CAO, are not as important when the parental working sector is included in the models.     

Airport delays and metropolitan employment

This study provides the first empirical assessment of the impact airline delays have on urban employment. While previous works have suggested that road congestion can slow down regional development, the influence of air traffic delays on metro‐level jobs has not been examined comprehensively. The present study uses a nine‐year panel of quarterly data, which covers passenger airline traffic and delays at airports across urban areas in the United States. The panel also includes data on total and industry‐specific employment at the metropolitan‐area level. Our empirical estimates of the impact of air traffic on total employment are comparable to previously reported measures in the literature. However, we find that service‐sector employment is less sensitive to air traffic than other studies suggested. We provide new evidence confirming that delays have a negative effect on employment, a finding that is robust to various specifications of our empirical model. Our results indicate that a 10 percent increase in the number of delayed flights leads to up to a 0.15 percent decrease in total and service‐sector employment, a 0.47 percent decline in leisure and hospitality employment, and a 0.7 percent reduction in the employment level of goods‐producing jobs.     

Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis: a European perspective

The impact of the economic crisis has been highly asymmetric across the European regions. The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of resilience to economic crisis across European regions. Regional economic resilience was assessed based on employment changes during 2008–2013, while socioeconomic determinants were analysed pre-crisis (2002–2007). A highly heterogeneous pattern of resilience was observed within countries, while significant differences were also revealed between the continental northern-central regions and the southern periphery. A multilevel logistic regression model indicated the magnitude of country-effects on the performance of regional employment during crisis periods. Both EU-referenced and country-referenced regional resilience identified the positive effect of accessibility and the negative effect of a large manufacturing sector in the ability of regions to withstand recessionary shocks. Education and economic development level positively affected the resilience of both large and small regional European economies. Investing in education enhances the spatial homogeneity across Europe in terms of its ability to react to economic shocks. The results reveal the importance of narrowing disparities among regions and formulating targeted and differentiated regional development policies at country level, taking into consideration the size of the economy of the regions.     

南京市区就业空间布局研究

本文采取就业密度分析方法,对南京市区就业空间布局进行实证研究。在南京市区现有11个区的基础上将南京市区划分为159个研究单元。依据2005年南京市1%人口抽样调查资料中"区县层面"分行业就业数据,以及2006年南京市用地现状图,修正匹配得到各个研究单元制造业、服务业、商业金融业及总的就业密度值。并运用Arcgis软件对就业密度值进行核密度分析以及3D模拟,分析南京市区制造业、服务业以及总就业的空间布局特征及原因机制。     

我国服务业发展的基本特征与空间差异研究

改革开放以来,我国服务业发展迅速。服务业在经济增长方式转变、产业结构优化升级和吸纳就业人口等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文从服务业的演进阶段、增长行为、内部结构、地区发展不平衡等方面对我国服务业发展的基本特征进行了分析。在此基础上探讨三大地带间、三大地带内和31个省(市)间服务业发展的区域差异,从空间上将我国服务业发展水平划分成发达、次发达、较发达、欠发达和不发达五个基本类型,旨在对未来我国服务业的发展,尤其是不同类型区服务业的差异化发展提供理论依据。     

上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

The Changing Geographies of Power and Control in Rural Service Provision: Recent Restructuring Within the Australian Tractor Dealership System

Over the past few years a considerable body of research has illuminated the changing geographies of service provision in rural Australia. Mostly, this work has emphasised the quantitative aspects of restructuring, by way of documenting numerical reductions in service delivery points and their implications for local employment and service access. In this paper, an examination of recent restructuring within the dealership system for high‐horsepower tractors underlines that these quantitative changes also intersect with qualitative shifts to the character of service delivery. Interviews with 31 participants in the tractor dealership system of Central‐West New South Wales reveal the recent evolution of a producer‐driven supply chain in which two dominant, multinational, tractor‐machinery companies have sought to exercise tighter control over customer relations through the restructuring of franchise agreements with dealers. There has been a resultant demise of the independent dealership, and its replacement by a system of standardised, company‐affiliated outlets operated by franchise holders. Hence, the spatial restructuring of this industry represents the surface manifestations of corporate strategies in which large economic entities are re‐organising their interests in light of globalised theatres of competition and profit. In this sense, the tractor‐dealership system is emblematic of changes to power and control in rural service provision as the franchise models propagated by large corporate interests increasingly subsume the small‐business sector activities of Australia's rural towns.     

New towns — the Indian experience

Recent government policy has enacted significant changes in the approach to training both north and south of the Border. In April 1991 the establishment of Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, along with a network of Local Enterprise Companies, marked a shift in the direction to employer‐led and locally delivered training programmes. The importance of tourism to Scotland has attracted government attention and, in anticipation of the new training network, a Tourism Training Initiative has been set up to expand the take‐up of training opportunities. This area‐based approach is welcomed but it is argued that tourist businesses, especially the small accommodation sector, have particular characteristics that have made the uptake of training traditionally a low priority. The absence of consideration of these characteristics in the design of the new employment strategies is argued to be a significant weakness.     

Profitability or Industrial Relations: What Explains Manufacturing Performance across Indian States?

This article begins with a critique of the well-known claim by Besley and Burgess concerning the negative impact of labour regulation on organized sector manufacturing performance in India. In the second part of the article, the authors use a state-level panel data set for the period 1969–2005 to analyse the relative importance of profitability (rate of profit as a percentage of the total replacement cost of capital stock) and industrial disputes (man-days lost to all industrial disputes as a percentage of total workers employed) to explain cross-state variations of manufacturing performance in India's organized sector. Using three different measures of manufacturing performance — net value added, investment and employment — they find that profitability is more significant than industrial disputes in explaining the variation of manufacturing sector performance across Indian states. The findings presented here therefore question the uncritical acceptance of Besley and Burgess's results in the literature on labour regulation.     

Immigrants in a segmented and often undeclared labour market

This article develops a systematic analysis of available data on foreign workers in the Italian economy. Their presence reflects the fragmented character of Italian labour markets and the particular importance in Italy of the ‘hidden economy’. These factors alone explain why Italy experiences simultaneously a shortage of labour and high labour costs, from which the demand for foreign labour has resulted. The study uses both official data and the findings of a number of secondary studies in the field to show how foreign workers participate in all the lower branches of employment and in some sectors have become the predominant group. However, the presence of foreign workers varies considerably by sector and by region, in turn reflecting certain structural features of the Italian economy. The study concludes by arguing that the presence of these foreign workers in the Italian labour market serves to perpetuate its flexibility, in some cases by complementing and in others by substituting for the indigenous labour force.     

MODELING DYNAMIC INTERINDUSTRY REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS AND OUTLIERS*

ABSTRACT. Kraybill and Dorfman (1992) propose a model of intermediate and export demand which uses ordinary least-squares and linear systems techniques to produce a state-space representation of the time element of output change. Their model produces dynamic multipliers which trace the temporal path of regional growth, and has many advantages over previously employed time series methods. This study extends their methodology to accommodate structural shifts and outliers found in the least-squares relationship between industry and export output by using a recently-introduced technique–multiprocess mixture estimation. An application of the Kraybill-Dorfman method and the extensions proposed here to monthly time series data on Ohio employment is used to illustrate these issues.