Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling

The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.     

Statistical Characterization of Structural Demand under Earthquake Loading. Part 2: Robust Estimation of the Dispersion of the Data

Performance-based earthquake engineering methodologies often require a probabilistic model of structural demand. Since observations masking the probability distribution of the majority of the data are frequently found, robust estimation methods are proposed to estimate the probabilistic model parameters (i.e., central value and dispersion). The performance of thirty-three robust dispersion estimators is evaluated, for different sample sizes, using the chord rotation, curvature, shear force, and inter-story drift demands obtained after analyzing five reinforced concrete structures under real earthquake records scaled to several intensities. Based on the results, combinations involving dispersion and central value (defined in a companion article) estimators are proposed.     

Can Earthquake Loss Models be Validated Using Field Observations?

The occurrence of a damaging earthquake provides an opportunity to compare observed and estimated damage, provided that detailed observations of the earthquake effects are made in the field. A question that arises is whether such comparisons can provide the basis for validation of an earthquake loss model. In order to explore this issue, a case study loss model for the northern Marmara region has been set up and the losses have been calculated for various ground-motion fields that arise when different assumptions are made about the ground-motion variability. In particular, the influence of removing the inter-event variability for a scenario earthquake and modeling spatial correlation among ground motions is studied. Further analyses are conducted assuming that a number of accelerograms are available within the region and that knowledge of spatial correlations among ground motions can therefore be used to better predict the motions at sites in the vicinity of the recording stations. The results demonstrate that unless one has a dense network of accelerographs (commensurate with the geographical resolution of exposure), then the variability in the losses cannot be sufficiently reduced to allow validation of the loss model.     

Shake Table Test and Numerical Analysis of a Bridge Model Supported on Elastomeric Pad Bearings

Elastomeric pad bearings are widely applied in short- to medium-span girder bridges in China, with the superstructure restrained by reinforced concrete (RC) shear keys in the transverse direction. Field investigations after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake reveal that bearing systems had suffered the most serious damage, such as span falling, bearing displaced, and shear key failure, while the piers and foundations underwent minor damage. As part of a major study on damage mechanism and displacement control method for short- to medium-span bridges suffered in Wenchuan earthquake, a 1:4 scale, two-span bridge model supported on elastomeric pad bearings were recently tested on shake tables at Tongji University, Shanghai. The bridge model was subjected to increasing levels of four seismic excitations possessing different spectral characteristics. Two restraint systems with and without the restraint of RC shear keys were tested. A comprehensive analytical modeling of the test systems was also performed using OpenSees. The experimental results confirmed that for the typical bridges on elastomeric pad bearings without RC shear keys, the sliding effect of the elastomeric pad bearings plays an important role in isolation of ground motions and, however, lead to lager bearing displacement that consequently increases the seismic risk of fall of span, especially under earthquakes that contain significant mid-period contents or velocity pulse components. It is suggested from the test results that RC shear keys should be elaborately designed in order to achieve a balance between isolation efficiency and bearing displacement. Good correlation between the analytical and the experimental data indicates that the analytical models for the bearing and RC shear key as well as other modeling assumptions were appropriate.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF METROPOLITAN TEHRAN,IRAN

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran, the capital of Iran. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Tehran and its vicinity in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 950 years. Tehran is a densely populated metropolitan in which more than 10 million people live. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. It comes from historical references that at least 6 times, Tehran has been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes. The oldest one happened in the 4th century BC. A collected catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events and covering the period from the 4th century BC to 1999 is then used. Seismic sources are modelled and recurrence relationship is established. For this purpose the method proposed by Kijko [2000] was employed considering uncertainty in magnitude and incomplete earthquake catalogue. The calculations were performed using the logic tree method and three weighted attenuation relationships; Ramazi [1999], 0.4, Ambraseys and Bommer [1991], 0.35, and Sarma and Srbulov [1996], 0.25. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 12×11 grid points using SEISRISK III. Finally, two seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for 10% probability of exceedance in two life cycles of 50 and 100 years are presented. The results showed that the PGA ranges from 0.27(g) to 0.46(g) for a return period of 475 years and from 0.33(g) to 0.55(g) for a return period of 950 years. Since population is very dense in Tehran and vulnerability of buildings is high, the risk of future earthquakes will be very significant.     

Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Scenarios in Greater Tehran

Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants, has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the area. The main objective of this article is to present a probabilistic procedure to construct time series compatible with the source-path and site reflecting the influence of different magnitude events at different distances that may occur during a specified time period. A Monte Carlo approach is used to generate numerous synthetic catalogs for the evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard in greater Tehran over hard rock site for a return period of 475 years. The disaggregation of the seismic hazard is carried out to identify hazard-dominating events and to associate them with one or more specific faults, rather than a given distance. The stochastic finite-fault technique based on region specific seismic parameters is used to generate time series of earthquake scenario.     

Sustainability of Highway Bridge Networks Under Seismic Hazard

In order to evaluate the seismic risk of transportation networks, it is necessary to develop a methodology that integrates the probabilities of occurrence of seismic events in a region, the vulnerability of the civil infrastructure, and the consequences of the seismic hazard to the society, environment, and economy. In this article, a framework for the time-variant seismic sustainability and risk assessment of highway bridge networks is presented. The sustainability of the network is quantified in terms of its social, environmental, and economic metrics. These include the expected downtime, expected energy waste and carbon dioxide emissions, and the expected loss. The methodology considers the probability of occurrence of a set of seismic scenarios that reflect the seismic activity of the region. The performance of network links is quantified based on individual bridge performance evaluated through fragility analyses. The sustainability and risk depend on the damage states of both the links and the bridges within the network following an earthquake scenario. The time-variation of the sustainability metrics and risk due to structural deterioration is identified. The approach is illustrated on a transportation network located in Alameda County, California.     

Developing Direct Displacement-Based Procedures for Simplified Loss Assessment in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering

Various loss assessment methodologies have been proposed and developed over the past decades to provide risk assessment on a regional scale. There is an increasing need, however, to provide engineers with practical tools for building-specific loss assessment. Recently, progress has been made towards probabilistic loss models such as the PEER framework. However, as comprehensive probabilistic methodologies could be too complex for practicing engineers, this article presents a simplified probabilistic loss assessment methodology that builds on a direct displacement-based framework. The methodology is tested via examination of two RC frame buildings and encouragingly shows similar results to the PEER methodology.     

USING GIS IN THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED LANDSLIDE HAZARDS

Summit Ridge, located in the North Santa Cruz Mountains, California, was heavily affected by landsliding during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (M_w=7.0). Widespread shallow failures, along with 17 deep-seated landslides, caused extensive damage. In order to study possible methods of assessing landslide hazard a geographical information system (GIS) was utilised. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismological data were used in a deterministic analysis using two standard earthquake slope stability models (pseudo-static and Newmark displacement). The models were used to assess the landslide potential that existed during the Loma Prieta event. It was found that, of these two models, the Newmark displacement model proved most successful at predicting the location of shallow unstable slopes. However, because both models are deterministic in nature they did not take into account any of the error and uncertainty in the input parameters. Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement method of analysis was developed. This was achieved by incorporating the principles behind a recently developed probabilistic technique which utilises the pseudo-static slope stability model. The method calculates the probability that a slope will exceed a certain critical value of Newmark displacement and thus fail. The use of such an analysis resulted in a more realistic distribution of hazard when compared with the distribution of actual landslides triggered by the 1989 earthquake. Subsequent to this, the probabilistic method was used to undertake a landslide hazard assessment for Summit Ridge given a postulated earthquake located on the Northern East Bay segment of the Hayward fault.     

THE FULL-DISTRIBUTION APPROACH TO AGGREGATE REPRESENTATION IN THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING FRAMEWORK*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a probabilistic specification of coefficients in the input- output modeling framework. Although previous works on probabilistic input-output models attribute uncertainty to measurement and sampling errors, this specification derives from systematic variation directly attributable to industrial, institutional, and location factors. Experiments with national input-output data support the existence of such variation. Employing the specification not only yields a more flexible aggregate modeling framework capable of producing interval impact estimates, but also an alternative perspective on such issues as interregional differentiation and structural comparison, the identification of key industrial sectors, aggregation, and spatial variation in production.     

FINITE FAULT MODELLING OF NEAR-FIELD ROCK MOTIONS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

Due to lack of strong motion records, point-source and finite-fault models have been used to simulate far-field motions at Memphis and St. Louis Cities from earthquake events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, near-field rock motions and their associated uncertainties have never been studied within this zone. The objectives of this study are to develop a simple procedure to account for the uncertainty effect of earthquake source parameters, to analyze the sensitivity of near-field rock motions to input source parameters, and finally, to generate rock motions at two sites located within 11 km from the southwestern segment (strike-fault) and a third site bove the Reelfoot Rift (reverse fault) using a well-validated finite-fault simulation program; FINSIM. An equal-weight logic tree was developed to ensure that the assumed uncertainties are within physical, geological, and seismological constraints. For each site, 100 acceleration time histories with various combinations of parameter uncertainties were respectively simulated for an earthquake of M _w 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0 from each of the two faults. Their average spectral accelerations were in good agreement with those derived from the attenuation relation-ships representative to the Central and Eastern United States. Numerical simulations indicated that spectral accelerations are sensitive to the slip velocity, depth to top of fault, fault strike, slip distribution, and hypocentre location along the strike.     

Statistical Characterization of Structural Demand under Earthquake Loading. Part 1: Robust Estimation of the Central Value of the Data

This article is the first of two companion articles addressing the statistical characterization of seismic demand. Performance-based earthquake engineering methodologies often require the characterization of central value estimates of structural demand. Since outliers can occur in the data, central value estimates should be determined by robust estimation methods. The performance of 50 robust central value estimators is evaluated, for different sample sizes, using the chord rotation, curvature, shear force, and inter-story drift demands obtained after analyzing five reinforced concrete structures under real earthquake records scaled to several intensities. Based on the results, seven estimators are proposed for different sample sizes.     

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Hybrid Steel-Timber Structure: Steel Moment-Resisting Frames with CLT Infill

In this article, seismic vulnerability assessment is carried-out on a novel hybrid structure (steel moment resisting frame (SMRF) and cross laminated timber (CLT) infill panels). For the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, a three-bay, 3-, 6-, and 9-story height SMRFs are designed for two ductility levels (ductile and limited ductility). To study the seismic vulnerability CLT infilled building, parametric analysis was performed by varying infill configuration (bare frame, one-bay infilled, two-bay infilled, and fully infilled). The structure is modeled in OpenSees and nonlinear dynamic analysis is performed. Peak inter-story drift demand and corresponding FEMA performance limits (capacity) values are used to compute the corresponding fragility curves. From the analyses, it can be seen that as more bays are infilled, the fundamental period and seismic vulnerability is reduced significantly. The results highlight that, within the performance-based earthquake engineering, different objectives can be met with varying the CLT configuration.     

Modernist Unreinforced Masonry (URM) Buildings of Barcelona: Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

The main objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability and seismic risk of typical existing modernist unreinforced masonry (URM) modernist buildings and aggregates situated in the Eixample district of Barcelona, part of the architectural heritage of the city. The context of the analysis is the methodology proposed by the Risk-UE project. The buildings are characterized by their capacity spectrum and the earthquake demand is defined by the 5% damped elastic response spectrum, considering deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios. A discussion addresses the basis of the seismic damage states probabilities and the calculated damage index. An important research effort has been focused on the buildings modeling. All the architectural elements and their mechanical properties have been studied and evaluated accurately. It has been evidenced that a detailed and complete knowledge of all the structural elements existing in this type of buildings influence directly their behavior and hence the calculations and the results. The analysis of the isolated buildings and of the aggregate building has been performed for both mentioned seismic scenarios. Finally, a complete discussion of the results is included.     

Exploring the Transition: Coursework to Research‐Based Study in the Geography Honours Year

The transition from coursework study to independent research is a component of many geography Honours programs in Australian tertiary institutions. Despite being canvassed at the 2003 annual meeting of the Australian Heads of Geography Units, it is a topic that has, to date, received relatively little academic attention. This paper developed from a review of the Geography Honours program at the University of Sydney, conducted by the authors in early 2004. The paper aims to help address the perceived deficiency of research into Honours study. Three topics, related to the Honours year transition, are discussed. These are: the rationale for the Honours year transition from undergraduate coursework to research‐focussed study; the composition and rationale behind coursework programs for geography Honours students, and student‐supervisor relations and their impact on independent Honours research. In the process of examining these issues this paper offers suggestions as to how tertiary geography schools can look to develop their Honours year programs. These recommendations are made with the understanding that all tertiary Honours programs are unique and that issues such as staffing levels and departmental structure will influence what suggestions are appropriate for individual institutions. It is hoped that this paper will encourage more discussion about the nature of the Honours year. It is through such communication that the value of the Honours year in student development can be enhanced     

故宫灵沼轩的动力特性及抗震性能研究

故宫灵沼轩是我国最早建造的钢铁-砌体组合结构之一,具有重要的历史、艺术和科学价值。为了评估灵沼轩在地震作用下的结构安全状况,建立了灵沼轩结构的三维有限元模型,并对其进行了动力特性和地震时程分析,得出了其固有频率、模态振型、地震位移响应和地震应力响应。结果表明:灵沼轩整体结构布置对称性较高,扭转刚度较大,对抗震较为有利;在8度多遇地震、设防地震和罕遇地震作用下,灵沼轩的金属结构部分及砌体结构部分的顶点位移和层间位移角均符合现行规范要求,砌体结构部分的第三主应力响应均小于材料的抗压强度,不存在压溃风险。在8度多遇地震和设防地震作用下,砌体结构部分的第一主应力响应均小于材料的抗拉强度,结构不会发生拉裂。但在8度罕遇地震作用下,砌体结构的部分位置拉应力超过材料的抗拉强度,这些位置存在开裂危险。最后,综合动力特性和抗震性能分析的结果,提出了灵沼轩的抗震加固建议。     

Modeling the Seismic Response of Modern URM Buildings Retrofitted by Adding RC Walls

Modern unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slabs are often retrofitted by inserting reinforced concrete walls. The main advantages of this technique are the increase in strength and displacement capacity with respect to masonry structures. This article presents two modeling approaches for evaluating such structures: a shell-element model and a macro-element one. The objective is to formulate practical recommendations for setting up a macro-element model using as input the geometry of the structure and results from standard material tests. Structural configurations of masonry buildings, in which the insertion of reinforced concrete walls is an efficient retrofit technique, are also investigated.     

STATISTICAL SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING REINFORCED CONCRETE BUILDINGS IN TURKEY ON A REGIONAL SCALE

A statistical procedure, called discriminant analysis, is used to develop a model for the preliminary assessment of the seismic vulnerability of low- to medium-rise (2-7 storey) reinforced concrete buildings. The earthquake damage data compiled in Düzce province after the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake formed the damage database. Number of storeys, minimum normalised lateral stiffness index, minimum normalised lateral strength index, normalised redundancy score, soft storey index and overhang ratio are selected as the basic damage inducing variables. Two discriminant functions are derived in terms of these variables considering immediate occupancy and life safety performance levels. In the proposed preliminary seismic vulnerability assessment model, the discri-minant scores obtained from these two discriminant functions are combined in an optimal way and axe used to classify existing buildings as “safe”, “unsafe” and “requires further evaluation”. The optimality criterion imposed into the model is the minimisation of the misclassification rate of damage states causing collapse. The validity of the proposed model is checked by using the seismic damage data associated with recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey. The consistency between the observed damage distribution and the predictions of the proposed model supports the effectiveness of the proposed model.     

A Fast and Efficient Simulation of the Far-Fault and Near-Fault Earthquake Ground Motions Associated with the June 17 and 21, 2000, Earthquakes in South Iceland

The two M_w 6.5 earthquakes on June 17 and 21, 2000, respectively, in the populated South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) significantly augmented the Icelandic database of strong ground motions, and several strong velocity pulses were recorded at near-fault sites. The strong motions are interpreted via the Specific Barrier Model (SBM) and a mathematical model of near-fault velocity pulses. The data indicates self-similar source scaling and significantly greater attenuation of seismic waves than in other interplate regions. Through inversion of the data a new attenuation function for the SISZ has been adopted, which results in unbiased simulations. For the first time, the characteristics of the recorded near-fault pulses have been identified and compared to the worldwide database of such records. The SBM and the near-fault pulse model combine naturally in a fast and efficient synthesis of realistic, broad-band strong ground motions in the far-fault and near-fault region. Such simulations are showcased for the June 2000 earthquakes and indicate that the modeling approach adopted in this study is an effective tool for the estimation of realistic earthquake ground motions in the SISZ.