汶川地震可移动文物震害研究

为探索汶川地震作用下以浮放为主的可移动文物的震害及防震措施,通过震后勘查,讨论了汶川地震造成的可移动文物的典型震害症状。从博物馆、陈列台、文物本身等三个方面,分析了可移动文物的主要震害原因和传统的防震措施的不足之处,对国内外可移动文物的先进防震技术进行了探讨,研究了其防震机理。基于国内外可移动文物防震经验,对我国可移动文物提出了防震建议。研究结果表明:汶川地震造成可移动文物震害除了地震本身因素外,文物防震措施不足是一个重要原因;为保证可移动文物的防震性能,首先应规范博物馆建筑抗震设计,其次考虑陈列台隔震技术应用,最后再考虑可移动文物与陈列台之间的可靠连接;采取先进的隔震技术对可移动文物的防震具有促进作用。     

Response of Alum Rock springs to the October 30, 2007 Alum Rock earthquake and implications for the origin of increased discharge after earthquakes

The origins of increased stream flow and spring discharge following earthquakes have been the subject of controversy, in large part because there are many models to explain observations and few measurements suitable for distinguishing between hypotheses. On October 30, 2007 a magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred near the Alum Rock springs, California, USA. Within a day we documented a several‐fold increase in discharge. Over the following year, we have monitored a gradual return towards pre‐earthquake properties, but for the largest springs there appears to be a permanent increase in discharge. The Alum Rock springs discharge waters that are a mixture between modern (shallow) meteoric water and old (deep) connate waters expelled by regional transpression. After the earthquake, there was a small and temporary decrease in the fraction of connate water in the largest springs. Accompanying this geochemical change was a small (1–2°C) temperature decrease. Combined with the rapid response, this implies that the increased discharge has a shallow origin. Increased discharge at these springs occurs both for earthquakes that cause static volumetric expansion and for those that cause contraction, supporting models in which dynamic strains are responsible for the subsurface changes that cause flow to increase. We make a quantitative comparison between the observed changes and model predictions for three types of models: (i) a permanent increase in permeability; (ii) an increase in permeability followed by a gradual decrease to its pre‐earthquake value; and (iii) an increase of hydraulic head in the groundwater system discharging at the springs. We show that models in which the permeability of the fracture system feeding the springs increases after the earthquake are in general consistent with the changes in discharge. The postseismic decrease in discharge could either reflect the groundwater system adjusting to the new, higher permeability or a gradual return of permeability to pre‐earthquake values; the available data do not allow us to distinguish between these two scenarios. However, the response of these springs to another earthquake will provide critical constraints on the changes that occur in the subsurface and should permit a test of all three types of models.     

Earthquake‐related temperature changes in two neighboring hot springs at Xiangcheng,China

Pre‐earthquake and postearthquake temperature changes were documented in two hot springs at Xiangcheng. Pre‐earthquake changes were documented in spring I, 13 days before and 106 km away from the M_s 5.8 Zhongdian earthquake. The 11‐year cutoff spring spouted again, and the spouted water was 24°C hotter than the former escaping gas. Postearthquake changes were documented in spring II following the 2008 M_w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, approximately 425 km away from the epicenter. Temperature in spring II showed a step‐like increase with a magnitude of 4°C induced by the earthquake. Spring I which is 0.3 m apart from spring II did not show a sudden change following the earthquake. However, temperatures in the two springs were identical after the Wenchuan earthquake. It indicates that the earthquake generated new hydraulic connectivity between springs I and II, and the heat transport between the two springs accounts for the postearthquake temperature changes.     

Simulation for Ludian (August 3, 2014, MW 6.2) and Nepal (April 25, 2015, MW 7.8) Earthquakes with Improved Stochastic Point Source Method

The Ludian earthquake (M_W 6.2) and Nepal earthquake (M_W 7.8) are parameterized and then simulated using a new improved version of the stochastic point source method based on a proposed equivalent distance (R_EQL) measure. The improved method considers uniform slip distribution along the fault and is validated by comparing the simulated Fourier response spectrum. Simulated ShakeMaps of Ludian and Nepal earthquakes in terms of PGA also indicate that the results of the improved method are in good agreement with finite-fault method with high efficiency.     

Analysis of strain‐induced ground‐water fluctuations at Devils Hole,Nevada

The pool in Devils Hole is a sensitive indicator of crustal strain and fluctuates in response to changes in atmospheric pressure, earth tides, earthquakes, large‐scale tectonic activity and ground‐water development. Short‐term and cyclic water‐level fluctuations caused by atmospheric pressure and earth tides were found to be on the order of millimeters to centimeters. The 1992 Landers/Little Skull Mountain earthquake sequence and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake induced water‐level offsets of greater than ?12 and ?3.6 cm, respectively. The results of a dislocation model used to compute volumetric strain for each earthquake indicates that the coseismic water‐level offsets are consistent in magnitude and sense with poroelastic responses to earthquake‐induced strain. Theoretical postseismic fluid‐flow modeling indicates that the diffusivity of the system is on the order of 0.03 m² sec^?1, and identified areas of anomalous water‐level fluctuations. Interpretation of model results suggests that while the persistent post‐Landers rise in water‐level can be attributed to deformation‐induced channeling of fluid to the Devils Hole fault zone, the cause of the pre‐Hector Mine water‐level rise may be related to postseismic excess fluid pressures or preseismic strain accumulation.     

ON THE ROLE OF ROAD NETWORKS IN REDUCING HUMAN LOSSES AFTER EARTHQUAKES

A road-network reliability analysis for a scenario seismic event is performed for a region of southern Italy characterised by a large number of small to medium municipalities quite close to each other and served by a dense network of roads. Among the many functions of the road network, whose links may fail after an earthquake due to the collapse of the bridges within them, the one selected for the present study is that of allowing rescue operations to be carried out at the sites of collapsed schools. For this to be possible, connection must be maintained between schools that survived, rescue centres and hospitals. Required elements for the study are the fragility curves of the bridges, the schools, the hospitals and the rescue centres. Output of the study is the expected value of the fraction of the total population in the area that is in need of assistance and cannot be hospitalised due to either failure of the network or other vulnerable components.     

Transient and Long-Term Changes in Seismic Response of the Natural Resources Building,Olympia, Washington,due to Earthquake Shaking

The Natural Resources Building (NRB) in Olympia, Washington, was shaken by three earthquakes (Mw = 5.8, 6.8, and 5.0) between 1999 and 2001. Building motions were recorded on digital accelerographs, providing important digital recordings of repeated strong shaking in a building. The NRB has 5-stories above grade with 3 sub-grade levels and a ductile steel-frame elongated in the E-W direction. The upper two floors extend significantly beyond the lower 3 on the southern and eastern sides. N-S motions dominate the fundamental modal vibrations of the building system. In the 1999 Satsop M5.8 earthquake, the frequency of this fundamental system mode was 1.3 Hz during motions of 10% g. The frequency dropped to 0.7 Hz during the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually strong motions. Moreover, the Nisqually recordings reveal both numerous high-frequency transients of up to 0.18 g, several of which are visible on widely spaced sensors, and long-term tilts of some of the sensors. The weaker 2001 M5.0 Satsop earthquake motions showed the frequency remained depressed at less than 1 Hz for the eastern side of the structure, although the western side had recovered to 1.3 Hz. An ambient noise survey in 2008 showed the fundamental frequency of N/S vibrations remains about 1.0 Hz for the eastern side of the building and 1.3 Hz for the western side. These results suggest that in the Nisqually earthquake, the east side of the NRB suffered a permanent reduction in fundamental mode frequency of 37% due to loss of system stiffness by undetermined mechanism.     

Performance of Structures in the Mw 6.1 Mae Lao Earthquake in Thailand on May 5, 2014 and Implications for Future Construction

An M_w 6.1 earthquake struck northern Thailand on the 5^th of May 2014. The epicenter was located near Mae Lao district in Chiang Rai province. The earthquake caused unprecedented damage to structures, the most damaging earthquake ever in recorded Thai history. Five hundred and ninety-four buildings out of 10,863 were damaged to the extent that they were unsafe for occupancy. This article presents a reconnaissance investigation of damage to buildings and bridges in the two districts—Phan and Mae Lao—which suffered the most damage. Attention is paid to the performance of buildings with similar configurations and structural design, but with different layout of unreinforced masonry infills as non-structural components.     

A LOGIC TREE EXTENSION OF THE CAPACITY SPECTRUM METHOD DEVELOPED TO ESTIMATE SEISMIC RISK IN OSLO,NORWAY

The city of Oslo, Norway, was affected by a magnitude 5.4 earthquake in 1904 causing widespread minor damage. The earthquake occurred around 100 km south of Oslo within the Permean rift structure that runs North-South along the Oslofjord, and deep clay deposits under the city contributed to the damages. A seismic risk scenario including soil amplification and buildings classifications has been conducted with two earthquake sources, one very close to the city and one near the 1904 epicenter. Both scenarios exhibit strong dependencies on the soft clays underlying large parts of Oslo. The results confirm the 1904 effects, but also show a strong dependency on the applied attenuation functions. All computations are based on the capacity-spectrum method, and the predefined pushover curves and vulnerability functions were adopted from the HAZUS code. With this basis, the computational scheme was developed independent from the GIS framework, and a weighted logic tree formulation was implemented for appropriate treatment of epistemic uncertainties.     

Archeoseismicity and environmental crises at the Sialk Mounds,Central Iranian Plateau,since the Early Neolithic

During the long-lasting cultural sequences of the Shurābeh and Sialk archeological mounds (6200–550 BC) the inhabitants encountered numerous diversified crises along a narrow fertile passageway at the edge of the Central Iranian Plateau Great Desert. Some of the threats may be attributed to earthquakes, drastic climatic changes, and man-made environmental deterioration, which possibly led to the settlement withdrawing at different stages toward a more suitable location. Our study identified the occurrence of a large-magnitude earthquake around 3800 BC along the Kāshān fault, which is well-documented by various lines of circumstantial evidence, including: (i) numerous contemporaneous smashed skeletons and artifacts underneath collapsed walls and ceiling debris in several different areas; (ii) tilted and collapsed walls; (iii) nearly N–S oriented fallen large storage jars; and (iv) nearly vertical deep ground fractures cutting walls and floors of the Sialk III₅ South Mound settlement. Archeological data also shows additional stratigraphic discontinuities and damages that may be attributed to earthquakes. However, damage features in limited exposed trenches are less conclusive and require additional careful excavations. Apparent ancient paleo-architectural innovative attempts to enhance the coherency/elasticity of the structures and minimize earthquake damage to buildings were also noted, suggesting the indigenous earthquake hazard mitigation endeavor. There seems to be a correlation between some site abandonment dates and possible drastic regional draught/cooling events. The natural and anthropogenic impacts addressed in this study constituted major threats to the sensitive archeological settlements at the fringe of the desert and the vicinity of the Kāshān active fault since antiquity.     

Earthquake Prediction and Warning

Abstract

A destructive earthquake of magnitude 7.3, occurring near Haicheng, Liaoning Province, China on 4 February 1975, was forecast successfully. Many lives were saved by an evacuation warning issued several hours prior to its occurrence. By contrast, another earthquake of magnitude 7.5, hitting the Tangshan area, Hopei Province on 28 July 1976, does not seem to have been predicted. It is believed that many thousands of lives were lost there although no official announcement was ever made about the damage or loss of life. These two Chinese earthquake indicate exactly the present status of prediction. Pre-earthquake indicators are manifold; they are land deformation, seismic activity, seismic wave velocity, changes in geomagnetic and geoelectric fields a well as variations in earth resistivity, gravity, underground water and so forth. Monitoring and analysis of precursory indicators have led us to conclude that there are at least two kinds. The logarithmic time of a long-term precursor is proportional to the magnitude of main shock. It amounts to seven-eight years for a magnitude 7 earthquake and 40–50 days for a magnitude 5 earthquake. Furthermore, indicators having a precursor time of several hours can sometimes be observed. Combining these precur or with periodicity of large shock a apparent from historical record and the accumulation of crustal strain as monitored by repeated geodetic surveys, allows a certain degree of earthquake prediction. These indicators seem to be supplemented by geophysical precursors of another kind and by specific anomalous animal behaviour. Even when a fairly accurate prediction of a damaging earthquake can be achieved, it will be no easy matter to issue a warning to the public because of the anticipated social unrest. Economic loss due to a warning may even exceed the damage caused by the earthquake itself, although many lives will certainly be saved by an accurate prediction.     

THE 9 JULY 551 AD BEIRUT EARTHQUAKE,EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION

Analysis of the Byzantine primary and secondary sources for identifying the historical earthquakes in Syria and Lebanon reveals that a large earthquake (M _s =7.2) occurred in July 9, 551 AD along the Lebanese littoral and was felt over a very large area in the eastern Mediterranean region. It was a shallow-focus earthquake, associated with a regional tsunami along the Lebanese coast, a local landslide near Al-Batron town, and a large fire in Beirut. It caused heavy destruction with great loss of lives to several Lebanese cities, mainly Beirut, with a maximum intensity between IX-X (EMS-92). The proposed epicentre of the event is offshore of Beirut at about 34.00°N, 35.50° E, indicating that the earthquake appears to be the result of movement along the strike-slip left-lateral Roum fault in southern Lebanon.     

Macro-Scale Analysis of Damage to Churches after Earthquake in Abruzzo (Italy) on April 6, 2009

This article focuses on the effects of the earthquake which struck the Abruzzo region (Central Italy) on April 6, 2009, causing considerable damage to many ancient buildings, particularly churches. During the emergency after the earthquake, many churches and other historical monuments (towers, city walls, large town houses, etc.) were surveyed, according to first-level damage survey forms for Cultural Heritage buildings, by multidisciplinary working groups composed of experts from several Italian institutions (Universities, Ministry for Cultural Heritage, Fire Brigade, etc.). This article presents a statistical study on the information collected by the University of Padova during the surveys, which was later inserted and organized in a database, and illustrates data on damage assessment of the buildings in question. It also presents an intuitive overview of the seismic effects on several churches, allowing not only better understanding of the response of these structures to this particular earthquake, but also correlating data on it with its effects on the churches.     

The Mw 6.4 SW-Achaia (Western Greece) Earthquake of 8 June 2008: Seismological,Field, GPS Observations,and Stress Modeling

On June 8, 2008 a Mw = 6.4 earthquake occurred in NW Peloponnese, western Greece. This event is the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in western Greece during the past 25 years. No surface rupture was observed. Many rock falls, slides, and liquefaction features have been found as is typical for an earthquake of this size. Double-difference relocations of 370 aftershocks show a linear pattern of events and define a clear NE-SW striking mainshock fault plane. The hypocentrer was determined at 18 km depth beneath village Mihoi in SW Achaia. The 24-hr aftershock region extends approximately 30 km in length, and the width of the surface projection of the aftershocks ranges between 5–10 km. The depth of the aftershocks rarely exceeds 22 km. Analysis of high-rate GPS data showed that station RLS (Riolos) which is located 12.8 km N5°W of the epicenter was displaced co-seismically 7 mm to the North in agreement with right-lateral kinematics of the rupture. Static (Coulomb) stress transfer analysis indicates loading of faults near the towns of Patras (north) and Amaliada (south), respectively. The earthquake put more emphasis on the role of strike-slip in the deformation of western Greece also indicating that seismic strain is partitioned between strike-slip and normal-slip events due to obliquity of the Nubia (Africa) – Eurasia convergence.     

ICT,Social Media,and the Arab Transition to Democracy: From Venting to Acting

There is widespread use of information and communications technology (ICT) in the Middle East and North African countries. Blogging and social media have played an important role in the recent calls for reform and change. Using these new communication systems and devices, citizens have been venting their anger and frustration with their autocratic governments and rulers. Most recently, the venting has turned into action, as shown by the eradication of the old regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, as well as the ongoing struggle in Syria. The most notable issues include lack of individual freedoms, deteriorating economic conditions, high unemployment, increased corruption, and violent treatment of citizens at the hands of security forces. The Arab Spring, or Awakening, and the events that have since followed have, in part, been promoted by ICT and other means of modern communications. Along with the popular Arab traditions of oral communication as well as Friday and Sunday sermons at mosques and churches, social media were used by organizers of the Arab Spring to call for and coordinate demonstrations against the regimes. Access to this newer media has circumvented the established and government‐controlled media such as printed press, radio, and television—outlets bent on appeasing the rulers and misinforming the masses. Arab authoritarian systems have discovered that they cannot simply flip a big red switch to stop the flow of information that they would rather keep hidden from the masses. Further discussed are digital democracies that are currently emerging because of the growing population of netizens, bloggers, and social media political activists throughout the Arab world and the many attempts to silence them.     

Urban contexts,spatially dispersed networks,and the diffusion of political information

This paper examines the spatial and temporal diffusion of political information within urban areas. We construct a multi-level analysis of information and communication, dependent on time, that is based on interviews with residents of the Indianapolis and St Louis metropolitan areas during the 1996 presidential election campaign. Moreover, based on a social network name generator, interviews were also conducted with discussants of the main respondents to the survey. Both sets of interviews are spread over a period of ten months, and we are able to locate the main respondents and their discussants within the urban neighborhoods where they reside. Hence, both the individual respondents and their discussants are located in time and space. Levels of aggregation are both dynamic and spatial, based on individuals who are located within residential neighborhoods and networks of social and political communication.We draw three main conclusions. First, not all networks are spatially dispersed, but some are, and the factors that give rise to spatial dispersion are directly related to an individual’s position in social structure. Second, spatially dispersed networks produce a number of important consequences, but none is more important than decreasing the density of the respondents’ communication networks. Finally, spatially dispersed networks are not necessarily politically diverse, but they are more likely to connect individuals who reside in socially and politically divergent settings.     

Seismic Microzonation and Damage Assessment of Bam City,Southeastern Iran

This article aims to study the dynamic characteristics of soil in Bam, southeastern Iran. Fundamental frequency and amplification factor of soil sediment were estimated by microtremor measurement. This procedure was performed at 49 sites in the city. Two 120-second data were recorded at each site. Segmental cross spectra were applied to calculate spectrum, Nakamura's method (H/V) was used for analyzing data and fundamental frequency and amplification factor values were derived. Iso-frequency and iso-amplification maps of the city were prepared. Results show that soil type in Bam city is mainly stiff, although amplification factor is relatively large. There is a short period zone in northwest to southeast direction. Sediment depth was estimated using a correlation between fundamental frequency and sediment thickness. Results obtained from microtremors were compared to the geotechnical boreholes and it was shown that microtremors can be used for a rough estimation of sediment thickness. Damage distribution map of Bam due to the Bam earthquake on December 26, 2003 was prepared by both field and aerial investigation. Quality of buildings in Bam was evaluated, as a result a crude zoning map on the building quality was prepared. Finally, it was concluded that several factors have contributed to damage intensity variation; earthquake characteristics, local site effect, and buildings' quality. All mentioned parameters affected the damage variation.