INTERRELATIONAL INCOME-DISTRIBUTION MULTIPLIERS FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a set of Miyazawa interrelational multipliers, which measure how direct changes in the income of each income bracket result in indirect and induced income changes in all other brackets. The multipliers have been calculated for a 9-by-9 pairing of income brackets for West Virginia in 1982. Their estimation is based on a combination of survey and nonsurvey data in three forms: a 1982 West Virginia input-output table, a multisector income-distribution matrix, and an income disaggregated consumption matrix. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the multipliers by showing how they provide insight into the viability of trickle-down theory and the incidence of regional development policy.     

A MODEL OF SHOPPING CENTERS*

ABSTRACT In this paper, we propose a model of developers' strategies for tenant mixes and the locations of shopping centers (SCs). Consumers have preferences for product variety, and tenants in the SCs sell differentiated goods. The consumers can choose two shopping behaviors: patronizing one or both of the two SCs. We show that if the consumers have strong preferences for product variety, the SCs agglomerate to free‐ride on the rivals' product varieties, and the consumers patronize both SCs. On the other hand, if consumer preferences are weak, the SCs locate at different locations, and the consumers patronize one of the two SCs.     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODEL OF FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS*

ABSTRACT Existing studies of fiscal policy interactions are based on single equation (SE) models of either taxation or expenditures, without specifying the underlying social welfare function, without taking account of budget constraints and without allowing for cost differences between jurisdictions. Taking all this into account, we derive an extended version of the linear expenditure system with policy interaction effects. We use this system to simultaneously estimate interactions in both taxation and different spending categories among Dutch municipalities. Our interaction parameters tend to be higher than those estimated using conventional SE models.     

首府集中度和西部城市化模式探索

城市首位度是最早提出来对城市规模状况的指标描述,但随着经济的发展,处于第二位城市的人口数量的增加,首位度日益无法得力地描述城市体系的特征状况,更无法表述出地区人口在首府城市的集中程度,为此本文提出了城市首府集中度的概念,将首府集中度划分为不同的等级层次。对比中国与世界平均及中、俄间的首府度分布曲线,从而得出结论:中国大城市的发展潜力仍然很大,应进一步扩展和完善大城市。西部地区地广人稀,对比分析俄罗斯和西部的首府度状况,相应地提出西部开发模式。     

A NEOCLASSICAL MODEL OF HOUSING QUALITY GROWTH AN INTERPRETATION*

The paper interprets a neoclassical model of quality growth in relation to housing technology, reinvestment choice, growth of the stock of shelter, growth with and without architectural design progress, and analyses of the golden rule of quality accumulation in the housing sector.     

A DYNAMIC INTRSECTORAL,MODEL OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. The dynamic relationship between sectoral value added and regional economic growth is analyzed using a stochastic intersectoral model estimated by ordinary least squares and linear systems techniques. A state-space portion of the model identifies the time element of sedoral value added. Dynamic multipliers, tracing the temporal path of regional growth, are calculated for the state of Georgia over the period 1963–1986. This application shows that the impacts of sectoral shocks can follow cyclical as well as monotonic patterns and that the direction and magnitude of the impact may change over time.