UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.     

Future Characteristics of the Elderly in Developing Countries and Their Implications for Policy

This paper explores barriers leading to continuing low levels of girls' schooling in Pakistan. More specifically, and for rural areas, the authors examine the barriers stemming from culturally associated gender in schooling, focusing, in particular, on school availability and constraints on female mobility. Logistic regressions of enrolment and attrition using secondary data from the National Adolescent and Youth Survey show that even after taking school availability into account, girls in households allowing unrestricted mobility to school had 1.5 times higher odds of ever being enrolled than those who required an escort. Once in school, the need for an escort implied 1.6 times higher odds of dropping out. The paper concludes that while investment in girls' schools, and to secondary level, is paramount for starting and continuing in school, the potential benefits will only be fully realised with accompanying measures which facilitate rural girls' mobility.     

HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.     

Second demographic transition or aspirations in transition: an exploratory analysis of lowest-low fertility in Kolkata,India

Fertility transition occurred during the 1970s in Kolkata (erstwhile Calcutta), capital of the state of West Bengal, India, and has remained persistently at the low fertility level. Fertility rate in Kolkata attained its lowest-low level in the beginning of the present century. It currently has the lowest fertility rate (TFR 1.2) in India. This could be a case of second demographic transition (SDT) or pertains to changing dynamics in childbearing, childrearing, and/or aspirations for children. Using primary data of 600 couples (1200 individuals) and employing quantitative and qualitative methods, this study found that constraints in childbearing and childrearing; and aspirations for children have a strong negative and significant effect on second and higher order childbearing among couples, particularly among women. In our study there was no strong evidence of voluntary childlessness as well as decline in the importance of marriage, family and children as posited by SDT. Thus we argue that SDT might have to be redefined for a developing country context.     

Single-Child Families in India: Levels,Trends and Determinants

This paper discusses a relatively new but an emerging demographic phenomenon of single-child families in India. This paper examines the levels, trends and determinants of single-child families using the data from three rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) conducted in 1992–1993, 1998–1999 and 2005–2006. The paper analyses women who have completed their reproductive life to understand the characteristics of single-child families. The results show that the proportion of single-child families is higher among the urban, educated and professionally employed women. Among the determinants, age at marriage and first birth, place of residence, economic and education status were significantly associated with single-child families.     

Services sector in India: trends,issues, and the way forward

This paper provides an overview of the Indian services sector. It shows that services is the fastest growing sector in India, contributing significantly to gross domestic product (GDP), GDP growth, employment, trade, and investment. India is a major proponent of liberalizing services both in the World Trade Organization and in its bilateral trade agreements. However, there are some concerns. In the recent past, economic growth and growth of the services sector has slowed down. Growth in employment in services has not been commensurate with the share of the sector in GDP. Although India is a major exporter of services, its export competitiveness concentrates in few sectors and a few markets. The paper identifies a number of barriers faced by the services sectors and suggests policy measures which, if implemented, will lead to inclusive growth, increased productivity, generate quality employment, increase trade and investment, and enhance India’s global competitiveness in services.     

The Making of an ‘All Weather Friendship’ Pakistan,China and the History of a Border Agreement: 1949–1963

China and Pakistan share what is widely known as an ‘all weather friendship’. The historical roots of this friendship can be traced to 1963, when the two countries entered into a border agreement that divided territory in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Since then, China has provided missile and nuclear technology to Pakistan. It has limited the potential for escalation in the time of war between India and Pakistan and is the largest economic investor in Pakistan. The benefits of this friendship for Pakistan are clear. Yet, there is little detail on what led to the making of the ‘all weather friendship’. This article provides a detailed account of Sino–Pakistani relations between 1949 and 1963. It argues that whilst the 1963 agreement led to a turning point, the Pakistani establishment – military and civilian – sought to engage China since 1949. They did so to create strategic options for themselves in the event that the US and the UK – Pakistan's main allies following independence – limited or worse, ended their support for Pakistan in its troubled relations with India. This article is based on primary sources available in the US, Britain, as well as recently declassified and hitherto unused papers in India.     

INDIA,THE GREAT DIVERGENCE,AND THE WRECKAGE OF MODERNITY

Research over the last two decades on the economic divergence of Europe and China before the nineteenth century has stimulated much recent scholarship investigating similar diverging paths between Europe and India. Following the lead of Kenneth Pomeranz, this work focuses on the demographic, ecological, and geographical factors in this divergence and argues for the direct comparability of the most economically advanced parts of Europe with such places as Gujarat and Mysore in Mughal India, which showed considerable proto‐industrial development before their relative economic decline and deindustrialization in the nineteenth century. The book under review approaches this topic by deploying a modified Marxian‐Weberian framework and draws on extensive research in Indian and British archives to argue that both Gujarat and Mysore might have embarked on paths of sustained economic growth through natural commercial expansion and deliberate mercantilist statecraft hindered by the East India Company. Despite resurging interest in Marx, much recent work in global economic history highlights the limitations of modernization theories drawn from a long tradition of Western social science indebted to the theories of Marx and Weber.     

The sustainability and some consequences of Chinese economic growth

During the past 27 years, China's economy and relationship with the outside world has been transformed. The magnitude of annual economic growth and rapid increase in the volume of output of goods and services raise unsettling questions about potential threats to the sustainability of current growth levels and implications for economic and political stability. This paper examines the sources of economic growth and concludes the strong state system, high rates of saving and investment and demographic structure will sustain growth. Chinese authorities must be aware that a failure to maintain the process of financial and political institutional reform or to address the widening regional income inequalities poses potential domestic threats to sustainable growth. Tensions remain in China's international relationships, forcing China to consider further adjustment and accommodation in its regional security and economic relationships.     

The Intersection of Gender,Caste and Class Inequalities in Child Nutrition in Rural India

While studies have investigated inequalities in child nutrition along single axes of social power such as, gender, caste and class, there has not been any study that has examined the intersection of the different axes in determining nutritional outcomes of children. This paper examines the intersection of gender, class and caste in determining children's nutritional outcomes for rural north, rural south and rural India as a whole. The paper investigates the intersectionality of the three axes in rural India and focuses on regional differences. The results show that children with particular disadvantageous group affiliations often find significant compensatory benefits from other beneficial identities. Class inequality dominates caste inequality and caste inequality dominates gender inequality in rural North India for all levels of stunting. In contrast, caste inequality dominates class inequality which in turn dominates gender inequality for severe stunting in rural South India.     

Hopes,dreams and anxieties: India's one-child families

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small but significant segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban, upper income, educated, middle class, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004–2005, we examine the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. We conclude that the motivations for this very low fertility are likely to be a more extreme form of those for low fertility rather than reflecting the qualitative change in ideologies and worldviews that is hypothesized to accompany very low fertility during the second demographic transition.     

The demographic transition: model and reality

Observed exponential population growth curves are short-term parts of a logistic or S-curve in demography or a product-cycle curve in technology. All human populations have the ability to adjust their rates of growth, a fact recognized by the demographic transition model. The acceleration of world population growth that began after 1650 and became conspicuous after 1850 was largely confined to industrialized countries of European culture until after World War II, when the S-curve passed the inflection point. Many signs indicate that the decline in growth rates may become striking in the 1980s or 1990s. The demographic transition agrees with the logistic curve, and since the ultimate carrying capacity of the Earth is limited, represents an intelligent adaptation. The industrial countries with the longest statistical records, such as Sweden and Finland, evidence early efforts to control fertility. The demographic transition in Sweden lasted from 1815 to 1930 and occurred without government interference. A question for postindustrial western society is whether birth rates will be adjusted to the rising death rates expected as the population ages. Birth and death rates in most formulations of the demographic transition model are typical of Western Europe at the start of the transition process but are much too low for most countries of the world. Japan's demographic transition and that of several other Asian countries have occurred much more rapidly than those of Western Europe and have demonstrated not only that the demographic transition model was applicable but that the time span could be shortened by a factor of about 10 when government policy was substituted for spontaneous development. The Indian experience however shows that the shortening of the transition cannot be imposed from above. The demographic transition is well on its way in most of Asia and Latin America, but Africa and the Muslim countries of Asia have so far done little to restrain their high fertility. It may be concluded that the actual form of the demographic transition is influenced by the point of departure and by how and when it takes place.     

Pakistan's foreign and security policies after the 2013 general election: the judge,the politician and the military

This article examines the consequences of Nawaz Sharif ‘s electoral victory in Pakistan's 2013 general election on the country's foreign and security policies. It analyses the relationships the new government is likely to entertain with the military institutions and the judiciary, and tries to identify the potential vulnerabilities of the new authorities. It concludes that the security situation will improve marginally, at best, and that a relatively smooth working relationship with the US, dictated by the constraints of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, can be anticipated. Relations with India are likely to constitute the real test of the political freedom enjoyed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif vis‐a‐vis the military. The difficulty will be to calibrate the relationship to avoid provoking a backlash with the military.     

A Note on the Benefits to Current Residents of State Employment Growth: Is There an Industry Mix Effect on Migration?

Although there is evidence that regional employment growth benefits current residents, an unexplored aspect of this relationship is the industry composition of the growth. Using 1981–1991 migration data for the 48 contiguous U.S. states, this paper examines whether the industry mix of employment growth matters for migration. We find that state employment growth that results from having a larger share of nationally fast-growing industries leads to less net in-migration compared to growth that results from each industry in the state growing faster than its national average. Therefore, state employment growth that is attributable to its mix of industries yields greater benefits for current state residents.     

Employment Change in Occupations in Urban India: Implications for Wage Inequality

This article analyses employment and wage change patterns in India for a period spanning almost three decades, from 1983–84 to 2011–12. Using data from the National Sample Survey Organization, the study finds evidence of job polarization (employment growth in low‐ and high‐skill jobs and decline in middle‐skill jobs) in urban India during the 1990s and 2000s, and employment upgrading in the 1980s. Consistent with the literature on job polarization, the article finds a reduction in employment share in routine task intensive occupations. The author argues that this reduction is a result of both mechanization and technological upgrading within Indian industry. On the other hand, an increase in employment share in both low‐skill and high‐skill occupations is argued to be a result of growing self‐employment and informal sector employment in urban India. The wage change patterns are largely consistent with the employment change patterns. The analysis suggests that structural change in occupation is an important factor for understanding earnings inequality in India.     

Discerning institutional and spatial restructuring under emergent neoliberal projects in India

The policy of economic liberalization pursued by the Indian government since the 1990s in response to an economic slowdown has led to the creative destruction of institutional space and the built environment. India launched the Smart Cities Mission and the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor to enhance infrastructure delivery and employment opportunities. Focusing on these cases and using direct observation and in-depth personal interviews, this paper explores the role of emergent neoliberal projects in the country's institutional and spatial restructuring at different scales. The aim is to make a twofold contribution to urban research: first, to contribute to the discourse on neoliberalism by identifying institutional and spatial restructuring in India based on the concept of creative destruction; and second, by validating the significance of strong state and political willingness in distributing neoliberal benefits such as affordable housing and services to the poor. The paper argues for a stronger role of the state in creating equity in the urban development process and infrastructure delivery.     

Globalised dreams,local constraints: migration and youth aspirations in an Indian regional town

Youth in India’s regional towns face a paradox: they are exposed to discourses of neoliberal globalisation through education and media, yet are unable to seize the benefits of globalisation, due to regional isolation. In this paper, we explore how aspirations of youth in India’s regional towns are influenced by their geographic marginalisation. Drawing on interviews and ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Darjeeling, a regional town in West Bengal, we demonstrate that regional youth feel disadvantaged in their access to middle-class jobs, modern education and lifestyles associated with neoliberal globalisation. Consequently, they express strong desires for ‘exposure,’ which can only be met through migration, particularly to India’s metropolitan cities. They are frustrated in their aspiration to migrate, however, as they feel constrained by the traditional family structure, discrimination in the larger cities and the uneven temporalities between regional towns and ‘global India.’ Their experiences highlight the geographically uneven effects of neoliberal globalisation.     

Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting,analysis, and policy optimization

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.     

论甘地与印度的分裂

甘地为印度的民族独立作出了独特的贡献,但他和穆斯林联盟及国大党大多数主要领导人一样,对于印度的分裂也应该负有一定程度的责任,因为他对于加速印度分裂的因素--真纳由民族主义者转变为种族主义者、穆盟势力的增强成长起了很大作用,在关键时刻没有利用自己在印度国民中的威望和影响尽可能避免分裂局面的出现.     

In defence of the Indo-Pacific: Australia's new strategic map

The 2013 Australian Defence White Paper categorically termed Australia's zone of strategic interest the Indo-Pacific, the first time any government has defined its region this way. This raises questions about what the Indo-Pacific means, whether it is a coherent strategic system, the provenance of the concept and its implications for Asian security as well as Australian policy. Indo-Pacific Asia can best be understood as an expansive definition of a maritime super-region centred on South-East Asia, arising principally from the emergence of China and India as outward-looking trading states and strategic actors. It is a strategic system insofar as it involves the intersecting interests of key powers such as China, India and the USA, although the Indo-Pacific subregions will retain their own dynamics too. It suits Australia's two-ocean geography and expanding links with Asia, including India. The concept is, however, not limited to an Australian perspective and increasingly reflects US, Indian, Japanese and Indonesian ways of seeing the region. It also reflects China's expanding interests in the Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Chinese debate may shift towards partial acceptance of Indo-Pacific constructs alongside Asia-Pacific and East Asian ones, despite suspicions about its association with the US rebalance to Asia. Questions about Australia's ability to implement an effective Indo-Pacific strategy must account for force posture, alliance ties and defence diplomacy, as well as constraints on force structure and spending.