Urbanization and mortality decline

We investigate the relationship between mortality decline and urbanization, which has hitherto been proposed by demographers but has yet to be tested rigorously in a global context. Using cross‐national panel data, we find evidence of a robust negative correlation between crude death rates and urbanization. The use of instrumental variables suggest that this relationship is causal, while historical data from the early 20th century suggest that this relationship holds in earlier periods as well. Finally, we find robust evidence that mortality decline is correlated with urbanization through the creation of new cities rather than promoting urban growth in already‐extant cities.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

Tackling human capital loss in shrinking cities: urban development and secondary school improvement in Eastern Germany

Selective migration, and the loss of highly qualified employees that it implies, is frequently mentioned as a major problem related to urban shrinkage [Fol, S. (2012). Urban shrinkage and socio-spatial disparities: Are the remedies worse than the disease? Built Environment, 38(2), 259–275.] However, despite the fact that research conducted on the issue of shrinking cities has increased, urban development strategies targeting human capital loss are rarely discussed in the literature on urban decline. This paper addresses this research gap. It focuses on the investment in secondary school infrastructure in Eastern Germany and presents the findings of an empirical study that observed how the issue of secondary education improvement was integrated into the urban development strategies of shrinking cities. Two case studies will be discussed in order to highlight initiatives for educational advancement, which directly targeted the problem of human capital loss. On the basis of this ‘reality check', the paper argues that an investment in secondary education is part of a potentially rewarding strategy in dealing with urban shrinkage that may be linked to the concept of social innovation.     

Smart growth strategies,transportation and urban sprawl: simulated futures for Hamilton,Ontario

North American cities have undergone dramatic changes over the last century. Locations that were once inconvenient have become accessible through extensive road networks leading to population decentralization from the traditional urban centre to suburbia, creating polycentric sprawls from once monocentric communities. Hamilton, Ontario is one such city. The decentralization and urban decline of the city is widely attributed to sprawling development. This change in the sociospatial structure creates challenges for transportation planners as we see greater automobile dependency, greater commuting distances and increased congestion. Smart growth policies such as urban residential intensification (URI) aim to increase population densities in the urban core. This exploratory study estimates the benefits of such policies from a transportation aspect. It is predicted that the City of Hamilton will experience household growth of approximately 80,000 households over the period 2005–2031. Using IMULATE, an integrated urban transportation and land‐use model, a variety of development scenarios model this anticipated growth. Changes in vehicular emissions, traffic congestion and energy consumption as a result of URI are examined. Models of the land‐use/transportation relationship demonstrate how increasing population densities within a city's urban centre drastically reduce congestion, emissions and gasoline consumption.     

The Index of Economic Disparity: Measuring trends in economic disparity across Canadian Census Subdivisions and rural and urban communities

Territorial inequalities have long been a subject of study and concern in Canada. In the face of large structural changes such as industrial shifts and the decarbonization of our economies, there is an urgency to understand such inequalities and design effective policy interventions for those places facing persistent economic decline. This paper shares a novel composite index that measures economic disparity across Canadian Census Subdivisions (CSDs) using Census data from 2001 through 2016 and the 2011 National Household Survey. Named the “Index of Economic Disparity,” it is comprised of an equally weighted average of four sub-indices that assign percentile rankings for all CSDs based on whether they experience persistent and substantial decline in key economic areas: population, labour force outcomes, working-age share of population, and industrial diversity. The variation of outcomes across geographies—urban and rural—highlights the importance of place-based policies.     

The Problems of Adjusting to Slow Growth in the Niagara Region of Ontario

During the 1970s it became clear that earlier forecasts of population increase and urban expansion in the Niagara region were too great. There has been a steady decline in the national birth rate since the 1950s and a decline locally in the rate of net in-migration. Moreover, a worsening economic climate, increasing development costs, and greater planning restrictions have led to a decline in the rate of land conversion from rural to urban uses. These changing circumstances afford an opportunity to plan for more compact urban areas and thus protect the area's valuable agricultural land. However, attempts to achieve these ends have been constantly frustrated by a regional and local planning process which has been loath to recognize such a conservationist cause or the need to plan for slower growth. In this report I will review three issues: the changing trends in future urban growth in the Niagara region; the regional plan and the designation of future urban areas; and the problems that have contributed to conflict and delay in approving that plan.     

Post-socialist Sprawl: A Cross-Country Comparison

This paper presents a land-use change analysis of five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We utilize CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land-Cover and Urban Audit data for two distinct time periods: 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 aggregated at urban, suburban and non-metropolitan geographies. The literature on post-socialist cities suggests that urbanization rates and patterns in the post-socialist period are quite variable and divergent, both “inter”nationally and “intra”-nationally, and we expect to find both spatial and temporal differences. We compare and contrast urbanization patterns at the national scale, using cities and their functional urban regions as the unit of comparative analysis. Our results show that unlike other eastern European countries, metropolitan areas in the former German Democratic Republic began sprawling (defined as a decline in urban density) in the 1990s. Similar changes only became visible in other CEE countries later during the 2000s. We also demonstrate that larger cities which were better connected to the political elite and more economically integrated with global investment patterns experienced more extensive urban sprawl than their smaller and mid-sized counterparts.     

A matter of privilege: infant mortality in the Garrison Town of Gibraltar, 1870-1899

The British colony of Gibraltar offers an opportunity to compare the infant mortality rates of the civilian and military populations inhabiting a small-scale urban setting from 1870 to 1899. Both groups shared the same poor-quality housing, the same sanitary infrastructure, and the same environmental inseparability. Sufficient water supply, in particular, proved to be a daily struggle for the families living on the Rock. Privilege for the military meant that service families had preferential access to a pure water supply after the installation of a water-condensing plant as well as to a better quality supply of water and milk. The availability of these privileges to one group, and not the other, is associated with a marked decline in infant mortality in the second half of the study period.     

The role of morbidity in the mortality decline of the nineteenth century: evidence from the military population at Gibraltar 1818-1899

The causes of the nineteenth-century decline of mortality, characterized by lower mortality rates and increased longevity, have been the subject of debate among researchers for the past half-century. Because of a paucity of reliable data, little is understood about the role of morbidity, or illness episodes, in the mortality decline. This article introduces the results of a study that looks at the relationship of morbidity in the mortality decline during this portion of the epidemiological transition. The data are comprised of hospital admissions and deaths collected by the British army on the soldiers of the Gibraltar garrison from 1819 to 1899. Morbidity dropped during this period, but at a slower rate than mortality, and all categories of disease did not fall in concert; in some categories, morbidity rose as mortality dropped. Statistical modeling is used to analyze the categories of diseases that were most influential in the decline of mortality in this group. This research shows that there are discernible relationships between morbidity and mortality and that the two parameters are responding to different driving forces. Because changes within the military medical system may have had an effect on the relationship of the morbidity and mortality rates of the soldiers, surviving medical reports are used to reconstruct the medical care of the troops during the study period.     

THE CAUSES OF THE ASIAN FERTILITY DECLINE

The Asian demographic transition is treated as one aspect of the global Industrial Revolution, which started in the West but now involves the whole world. In fact, the multiplication of per capita income in Asia in the second half of the twentieth century has been the world's fastest. With the rise in female education, urban living and non-agricultural employment, as well as the mortality decline that began early in the twentieth century and government family planning programmes, fertility fell nearly everywhere from the 1960s presaging below-replacement fertility levels. The continent's macro changes are outlined and micro studies of the causes of fertility decline and the delay or forgoing of marriage are drawn from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea. It is concluded that marriages will be increasingly forgone or delayed and that most, perhaps all, ESCAP Asia will this century experience below-replacement fertility. The path followed is much more likely to resemble that of Mediterranean Europe than Northern Europe.     

Decline and sprawl: an evolving type of urban development – observed in Liverpool and Leipzig1

Much of the empirical research on urban sprawl has been carried out in North America and most theoretical studies on this problem have been concerned with expanding urban areas. This study differs, firstly in that it is concerned with sprawl in two European cities, Liverpool in England and Leipzig in Germany, and secondly because both these cities are in decline. This presents an opportunity to explore whether the process of urban sprawl is somehow specific in a situation of urban decline and what its outcomes might be for both urban form and urban policy.     

Decline or Transformation? Archaeology and the Late Medieval ‘Urban Decline’ in Southern England

Archaeological evidence is used to examine how urban life changed in the later medieval towns of Sussex, Surrey, and Hampshire in southern England, in light of ongoing debates about the existence of a fifteenth-century urban ‘decline’. The article proposes that rather than seeking evidence of decline, we should consider how and why experiences of urban life vary. The role of towns in commercial and political networks is highlighted as a key cause of variability in late medieval urban experience.     

La métropolisation à l’aune de la ‘loi’ taille/rang : Le cas Canadien, 1971–2001

Metropolization and the rank/size ’law‘: the Canadian case, 1971–2001 There is currently considerable interest in the process of metropolization. One of the consequences of this process, observed by numerous researchers, is the slower growth and even decline of small and medium cities. From a theoretical point of view, this process is compatible with endogenous growth theory: metropolitan areas offer economic actors certain key factors (access to information, to global networks, etc.) that smaller cities cannot. Concurrently, however, there is a resurgence of interest in Zipf's law and, more generally, in the stability of urban hierarchies. These two bodies of work appear to be in contradiction. However, using Canadian data from 1971 to 2001, we show that whilst metropolization is indeed occurring, this is not necessarily incompatible with a regular urban hierarchy. Indeed, if it is assumed that Zipf's rank‐size rule applies to urban systems in stable socio‐economic contexts, and that this regularity can be disrupted by fundamental social and economic changes, then the current wave of metropolization can be interpreted as a re‐ordering of cities in the face of the major social and economic changes of the 1980s and 1990s, which may eventually lead to a new equilibrium compatible with Zipf's law.     

Mobility as a contradictory resource: peripatetic Qur'anic students in Kano,Nigeria

Mobility is a powerful resource young people can draw on to improve their lives, but it can also entail risks. This paper explores how mobility becomes a contradictory resource for peripatetic Qur'anic students (almajirai) in Kano State in northern Nigeria. Moving to urban areas allows the young almajirai to escape difficult conditions and to access educational and income opportunities absent in their rural homes. It makes it possible for them to adopt self-conceptions as migrants in search of sacred knowledge who were once widely respected. However, economic decline has made survival in the city more difficult. Lacking the economic and cultural resources to participate in displays of status, and without social superiors to speak for them, the almajirai feel they have become fair game for those searching for scapegoats.     

The Decline of Gangsters and Politicization of Violence in Urban Bangladesh

Contrary to the Weberian ideal of a central state monopolizing the means of violence, political order in many societies requires a balance of interests between diverse ‘violence specialists’. In urban Bangladesh, gangsters have been identified as powerful actors, closely linked to politicians and the state. Often called mastan, they are portrayed as mediating access to work and public services, as running extortion networks and providing political muscle. Since the early 2000s Dhaka has seen radical change, largely undocumented to date: these gangsters are in significant decline. Many of the roles associated with these gangs continue, but now under the direct control of lower‐level factions associated with the ruling political party — a transition that has brought a greater degree of stability to the urban context. These arguments are developed through ethnographic research from a large marketplace in the centre of Dhaka, examining the rise and fall of an infamous local gangster. In developing this case, it is argued that closer attention should be given to changes in the organization of violence within societies.     

Mortality differentials between rural and urban areas of states in the Northeastern United States 1890-1900.

Data from a number of countries show much higher mortality rates in urban than in rural areas in the nineteenth century. In this paper we examine the urban-rural mortality differential in the death registration states of the United States in 1890 and 1900. Before proceeding with the analysis, the data are evaluated and we determine that the data used for the 1900 analysis are more complete than data used in other analyses for the same date. An attempt is made to correct for the deficiencies in the 1890 data. When the urban and rural mortality levels are examined for individual states at both dates, urban mortality is generally higher than rural mortality. However, there is variability across states in urban mortality levels, rural mortality levels, and the urban-rural mortality differences. In general, the urban-rural mortality difference is larger in 1890 than in 1900. When the urban-rural mortality differences are examined in terms of the causes of death which account for the differential, we conclude that higher urban mortality rates are generally attributable to a few diseases—tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases and several other communicable diseases—the transmission of which depend heavily on close human contact or contamination of the environment.     

The changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector in metropolitan and rural regions, 1976–1997

This paper documents the changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector over a 22‐year period (1976–1997). It does so by looking at the shifts in employment and differences in production worker wages across different levels of the rural/urban hierarchy—central cities, adjacent suburbs, medium and small cities and rural areas. The analysis demonstrates that the most dramatic shifts in manufacturing employment were from the central cities of large metropolitan regions to their suburbs. Paralleling trends in the United States, rural regions of Canada have increased their share of manufacturing employment. Rising rural employment shares were due to declining employment shares of small cities and, to a lesser degree, large urban regions. Increasing rural employment was particularly prominent in Quebec, where employment shifted away from the Montreal region. The changing fortunes of rural and urban areas were not the result of across‐the‐board shifts in manufacturing employment, but were the net outcome of differing locational patterns across industries. In contrast to the situation in the United States, wages in Canada do not consistently decline, moving down the rural/urban hierarchy from the largest cities to the most rural parts of the country. Only after controlling for the types of manufacturing industries found in rural and urban regions is it apparent that wages decline with the size of place .     

矿业城市生命周期与空间结构演进规律研究

在对矿业经济和城市发展生命周期判定的基础上,选取石油城市大庆、有色金属城市金昌、煤炭城市大同等典型矿业城市作为研究样本,梳理矿业城市发展生命周期,重点研究矿业城市空间结构有序化演进的一般规律。文章认为矿业城市经历"矿业经济-新型制造业-综合性"的完整发展过程,城市空间结构对应整体演进过程也呈现出"矿业经济的点状离散-新型制造业的分区极化-综合性城市的多组团圈层"的阶段性特征。在矿业经济时期内部又呈现"导入期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期/转型期",且对应不同阶段在城市人口、职能、经济结构等方面均呈现不同的特点。矿业城市空间演进整体上体现出"矿业经济是空间发展的初期主导,空间结构随城市职能的升级而演变,空间作用呈现集聚与分散的交替"的有序化发展规律。     

Rural futures? Mapping newcomers' hopes about potential resettlement in Canadian rural areas

The Canadian government recently launched initiatives to promote immigrant settlement outside of traditional gateway cities, in small towns and rural areas. These initiatives attempt to mitigate socio-economic impacts of population decline, and address barriers to successful integration in urban areas. Drawing on the geographies of hope, this paper examines how newcomers navigate hopes as they imagine rural resettlement in Ontario. Based on focus groups with immigrants (n = 50), the findings suggest that newcomers' imagined rural futures are a dynamic and mobile process, shaped by competing hopes for a stable life. Rural imaginaries can sometimes provide a generative space to realize hopes and develop new future aspirations, other times they can constrain hopes for intergenerational futures. We contend that newcomer hopes arise in moments of relocation uncertainty, shaped by competing visions, interests, and priorities at individual and collective scales. Newcomers' expectations of rural futures are always enlivened with a sense of optimism for what has not yet become, but are equally replete with angst and anxiety for the future. This article concludes that future geographic research on migration-hope-place interactions, particularly in the health subfield, should engage constructions, experiences, and enactments of hope that mediate relocations and the policies governing them.     

Hammams and the contemporary city: the case of Isfahan,Iran

Hammams, or public baths, are an essential part of the social life in urban Islam. Often, they have a rich and inspiring architecture. In Iran and, in particular, in Isfahan – a large and historic city in central of Iran – numerous hammams were built since the Safavid dynasty (1501–1722). Social and urban changes have resulted in a significant decline in the number of hammams over the years. This paper starts by describing the multiple dimensions of hammams, such as their main architecture features, their role in health, society and culture. This is followed by an analysis of hammams in Isfahan, using a modified version of Büyükdigan categories for Ottoman baths: (i) ‘baths in ruins’; (ii) ‘baths continuing their original functions’; and (iii) ‘baths readjusted for new uses’. Anecdotal evidence from a survey conducted in 15 hammams is used throughout this paper. The main conclusions relate to the rapid deterioration of hammams in daily life, coupled with the lack of detailed documentation, which would allow proper planning and development, and the deficient use of some of these magnificent buildings and places for tourism development.