STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

THE POLITICAL TRADE‐OFF BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL STRINGENCY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL AMERICA*

ABSTRACT We examine the impact of the political trade‐off between rural economic development and environmental quality on the determination of environmental regulations in the U.S. intensive livestock industry. The political economy model, adapted from Fredriksson (1997) , is tested empirically, using state‐level data on environmental regulation of the U.S. livestock sector. We find that state governments respond to greater potential for water pollution with more stringent environmental regulations. Consistent with our political economy model, we also find that states with lower recent growth in per capita income implement less stringent environmental regulations.     

Sizing Up State Policy Innovation Research

In the literature on state policy innovation, there are three major explanations for what causes a government to adopt a new policy. One is the internal determinants model, which posits that the main factors leading a state to innovate are internal political, social and economic characteristics of the stale. The other two are diffusion models—the regional diffusion model, and the national interaction model—which see slate policy adoptions as emulations of earlier adoptions by other states. Each of the three models has been associated with a distinct strategy for empirical testing. The regional diffusion model has been tested with factor analysis, the national interaction model with time-series regression, and the internal determinants model with cross-sectional regression. In this paper, I explore the ability of these "single-explanation" methodologies to detect the true innovation process underlying stale policy adoptions, by applying these methodologies to data generated from simulated innovation processes with known characteristics. I find that the methodologies often yield incorrect conclusions about the character of innovation. I conclude by presenting an agenda for refining a superior alternative methodology: the event history analysis approach to state policy innovation research introduced by Berry and Berry (1990).     

Thomas Piketty's Global Tax on Wealth

Thomas Piketty's concern with growing economic inequality leads him to propose a global tax on wealth. While he recognizes that the efforts of individual nations to tax wealth will prove ineffective since wealth is mobile, he does not seriously confront the collective action problems that will impede national efforts to cooperate in more effectively taxing global wealth. To what degree are more radical forms of political integration required to overcome these collective action dilemmas? Piketty provides partial and inadequate answers for these questions with regard to European integration. To be persuasive the economic analysis of Capital in the Twenty-First Century would have to be supplemented with a political economy comparable in depth and sophistication to that provided by The Federalist Papers regarding the political and economic integration of American states at the time of the American Founding. Piketty's failure to address questions of political economy makes his project vulnerable to the charge that nothing less than a world state would suffice to impose a global tax on wealth, and thus that his project is hopelessly visionary and susceptible to misappropriation for tyrannical purposes.     

共容利益:社区参与旅游发展之利益协调

收益分配问题绝不只是单纯的经济问题,而是涉及政治和社会制度安排的"正义"问题。本文基于对农村旅游发展现实的大量观察和前人对于中国社会问题丰富的研究成果,把宏观制度研究与微观行为分析结合起来,将影响旅游收益分配的政治过程内生化、模型化,展现了在农村旅游发展中,各利益主体——政治精英、商人利益集团、社区农民为实现各自的目标价值,在制度激励和约束下就利益的分配进行重复博弈的动态过程。本文指出,旅游收益不平衡的制度性根源在于国家的政治、经济、法律制度设计偏重于增长而未能有效地维护个人和社会的正当利益。仅仅依靠金钱补偿,或者调整收入分配政策根本不可能达到或实现分配正义的目标。分配正义的实现需要一系列根本性的制度变革,"从顶到底"地建立一个能给予共容利益最大决策权的政治体制和经济机制。     

中国互联网与区域经济

文章运用指数定律分析了中国互联网的域名地区分布、地区人均国内生产总值分布和地区人口分布,得出的结论是:中国互联网分布是地区人均国内生产总值的反映,与地区人口分布联系不大。这证实了互联网与区域经济的紧密相关性。研究中还发现,中国互联网仍然处于高速增长期;最后给出了中国互联网增长的速度,以及到达成熟稳定时期所需的时间。     

KNOWLEDGE MATTERS: THE LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF STATE INCOME GROWTH*

ABSTRACT State per capita income differences narrowed considerably between 1939 and 1976. However, this convergence has been incomplete. We examined the sources of relative per capita income growth using an augmented growth model and a panel of the 48 contiguous states from 1939 to 2004. We explored the effect of tax burdens, public infrastructure, size of private financial markets, rates of business failure, industry structure, climate, educational attainment, and technology production. Our results show that a state's technology and its college attainment rates are the main factors that allow some state's per capita income to remain above those of other states.     

The Determinants of Policy Introduction and Bill Adoption: Examining Minimum Wage Increases in the American States, 1997–2006

Faced with long intervals between federal minimum wage increases in recent years, state legislatures are increasingly likely to take action. Motivated by the relative dearth of empirical work on minimum wages in the American states, this article considered various explanations to determine which factors are associated with legislative efforts to pass wage increases. Taking seriously the view that disagreements over the effects of minimum wage increases enhances the influence of political factors, we drew on the policy adoption and diffusion literature to examine how internal determinants (political and economic variables) and regional diffusion pressures relate to both the introduction and adoption of minimum wage legislation in the American states in the years between the last two federal minimum wage increases (1997–2006). Employing negative binomial regression to analyze annual bill introductions, we found that a number of political variables are related to the consideration of minimum wage increases. However, using event history analysis to examine annual adoptions of minimum wage increases, we found few of the same variables matter. We concluded with a discussion of the empirical results within the context of the broader policy literature and cautioned future scholars to consider seriously whether political factors exert distinct influences at different stages of the policy process.     

Russia and China: converging responses to globalization

This article compares the impact of globalization on the political systems and political economy of Russia and China since the beginning of their respective reform periods. Overall, it argues that both should now be viewed within the paradigm of ‘developmental states’. The article first presents some comparative economic statistics on the changes that have taken place. Second, it looks at the converging attitudes of the two regimes towards industrial restructuring and privatization, highlighting the continued role that they both reserve for state direction. This includes an orientation towards national industrial champions. Third, the evolution of policies of both states towards guided democratization are discussed leading to an assessment of the importance of nationalism in their responses to globalization, particularly in the recent doctrine of ‘sovereign democracy’ of Putin's United Russia party. Finally, the article argues that a greater wariness towards western recipes for political and economic development will frame the efforts of both states to construct a more cooperative bilateral relationship.     

CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.     

Child Poverty in the American States: The Impact of Welfare Reform,Economics, and Demographics

This article identifies the predictors of child poverty rates at the state level before and after the adoption and implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. The analysis shows that the most important state‐level factors that influence child poverty rates are demographics, the health and viability of the state economy, and often the generosity, inclusiveness, and quality of state welfare programs. States with large numbers of black citizens, and those that score highest on infant mortality, teen births, births to unmarried women, children living with a parent without a high school degree, and children living with a single parent have the highest rates of child poverty. Child poverty rates are lowest in states that suffer less unemployment, and in wealthier states. States that score higher on per capita personal income, tax revenues, and taxable resources have lower child poverty rates. While specific “tough” welfare policies adopted by some states seem to have no impact on child poverty rates, we tested for the first time a sophisticated measure of the overall quality of state welfare programs. The analysis reveals that the global quality of a state's welfare programs is often an independent predictor of child poverty. States with the most generous, inclusive, and supportive welfare programs have done the best job of lowering and containing child poverty.     

Internationalization and Patterns of Political Change in Ireland

The forces of internationalization have been central to the Republic of Ireland's dramatic transformation during the past four decades. The political, social, and economic changes brought about by membership in the European Union (EU) have been especially significant. Ireland has been described s a "Celtic Tiger" whose stellar economic growth rate during the past decade has given it one of the highest per capita GDP levels in the EU. Much of this success has resulted from imaginative and dynamic programs developed b y Irish political and administrative leaders. Ireland's good working relationship with the United Kingdom has enabled the two governments to achieve significant progress in the search for peace in Northern Ireland, whatever setbacks may occur during the long term evolution of this process.     

Competition between regional governments and the federal culture of fiscal equalisation

Since federation, regional economic development in Australia has been shaped by fiscal competition among state and Commonwealth governments. Variations in the fiscal capacity of the different governments to provide goods and services, together with the Commonwealth's increased revenue collection powers since 1942, has led to vigorous political competition between the states over their share of the general purpose funds through a process known as fiscal equalisation. The state premiers themselves have been at the forefront of the debates over fiscal equalisation and, as events surrounding the 1992 June Premiers’ Conference have indicated, competition over an equitable share of the fiscal resources highlights the strong federal orientation of economic development. The aim of this paper is first, to explain the significance of the Commonwealth Grants Commission's equalisation process in the wider economic and political context of competitive state federalism and, second, to explain the historical importance of regional political values that contribute to the shape of state economic developments.     

Internationalisation of the Chinese subnational state and capital: the case of Yunnan and the Greater Mekong Subregion

This article examines the participation of China's Yunnan Province in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in order to understand the dynamics behind the regionalisation and internationalisation strategies adopted by a Chinese subnational state. It argues that the Yunnan case demonstrates the outflow of state capital—both national and provincially based—to have been instrumental in harnessing Beijing's and Kunming's political support for programs of subregional economic cooperation. This political support has led to a state capital alliance underpinning the economic expansion of provincial state capital into the GMS. It also argues that subregional governance arrangements, such as those featuring in the GMS, embed the competitive advantage of state capital through new forms of extra-territorial governance that ostensibly de-emphasises the political dimensions of state capital. The internationalisation of Yunnan subnational state is reflected in its political strategy of subregional governance. These changes point to complex rescaling of not just national state but also subnational states in Asia that find expression in variegated regional and subregional political projects.     

The Australian mining tax debate: political legacies and comparative perspectives

The political debate concerning the introduction of new national resource rent tax in Australia between 2010 and 2014 provides significant insights into the Australian political system. This collection of papers systematically examines the broader political consequences of the mining tax debate including the power of mining interests and the strategic errors made by the Rudd and Gillard governments. These analyses highlight the institutional limits of the Australian state and the political challenges associated with future economic reform.     

State functioning and state failure in the South Pacific

The South Pacific region features enormous variation in state performance. While Polynesian nations such as Samoa have proved to be relatively successful post-colonial states, Melanesian countries like the Solomon Islands are increasingly categorised as 'weak', 'failing' or 'failed' states. Drawing on a range of comparative studies by economists and political scientists in recent years, this article argues that cross-country variation in ethnic diversity between much of Polynesia and Melanesia is a key factor in explaining differences in state performance across the South Pacific. It shows how different kinds of ethnic structure are associated with specific political and economic outcomes, including variation in political stability, economic development, and internal conflict from country to country. In so doing, it helps explain why some parts of the South Pacific appear to be failing while others are relative success stories - and why this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.     

An empirical analysis of the effects of consanguineous marriages on economic development

In this study, development experiences toward economic development are investigated to provide an alternative analysis of economic development, human capital, and genetic inheritance in the light of consanguineous marriages. The countries analyzed in the study are discussed in accordance with consanguineous marriage practices and classified by their per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. A broad range of countries are analyzed in the study. Arab countries that experienced high rates of growth in their gross national income during the twentieth century but failed to fulfill adequate development measures as reflected in the growth in national income, countries undergoing transition from tight government regulation to free market democracy, and African nations that have experienced complications in the process of development show important differences in the process of economic development. It is shown that the countries that have reached high average development within the context of per capita GDP have overcome problems integral to consanguineous marriage.     

Taxing the Poor: The Politics of Income Taxation in Ireland

Income tax is the largest single means of generating revenue in modern states, and its impact is felt by virtually all members of society. How it is levied is therefore a matter of the highest political significance. Yet countries vary greatly in the manner in which they allocate the burden of paying income tax. In Ireland, the profile of income tax has changed dramatically throughout the course of economic modernization, since about 1960. By 1980 it was generally agreed that employees were carrying too much of the burden, especially those on fairly low incomes. Steady growth in recent years has enabled governments to cut tax rates while still bringing in rising revenue. But shifting the distribution of tax has proved very difficult, and tax reform has tended to favor the wealthy most. This article draws on comparative political science literature to highlight the political and institutional variables relevant to explaining these trends.
"The Chancellor of the Exchequer is a man whose duties make him more or less of a taxing machine. He is entrusted with a certain amount of misery which it is his duty to distribute as fairly as he can" (Robert Lowe, Viscount Sherbrooke, (Liberal), Hansard, 1870, April 11, col. 1639).     

Whither the Developmental State in South Korea? Balancing Welfare and Neoliberalism

Abstract

Scholars of political economy have been debating the role of the Korean state in the economic development of the country, as the characteristics of a developmental state, a neoliberal state and/or a welfare state have appeared simultaneously in the various governments’ policies since the 1990s. This paper argues that although the nature, degree and extent of government intervention has varied from administration to administration, the basic stance of a developmental state has been retained while neoliberal and welfare policies have been used concurrently to further economic and social development. This coexistence of contradictory approaches reflecting alternative market economic systems was the product of a combination of government policies that has for the past 20 years provided the Korean government with the ability to deploy flexible policy mixes in response to changes in the political and economic environment and to maximise the outcomes of developmental policies.     

The socio-ecological fix by multi-scalar states: The development of ‘Greenways of Paradise’ in Chengdu

This paper examines the recent green turn in China by investigating a large-scale urban greenway project. Using the perspective of the socio-ecological fix, we demonstrate that multi-scalar states strive to upgrade environmental quality. Specifically, the local state seizes the opportunity for ‘ecological civilisation’ envisioned by the central state to carry out green infrastructure development. We reveal complex motivations to incorporate ecological changes into entrepreneurial urban governance instead of encroaching greenspace for economic growth. Our state-centred analysis reveals that such an environmental strategy, the making of Chinese green urbanism, is promoted like a political mission, despite its operation by the development corporation. We argue that, while the socio-ecological fix facilitates capital accumulation, its deployment must be understood through state politics and actors.