THE JOINT CHOICE OF AN INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION AND DESTINATION*

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between an individual's occupation choice and destination choice. It portrays the relationship as an interaction between the supply of occupational skills by individuals and demand by different labor‐market regions. The unusual merger of a multinomial logit model of occupational choice and the conditional logit model of destination choice in a simultaneous equation framework requires derivation of a unique variance–covariance matrix. Results indicate strong association between supply of (migration) and demand for (industry mix) an individual's occupational skills. These effects are especially strong for destinations experiencing slow economic growth, while relatively unimportant for high‐growth locations.     

The Urban Emergence of a New Information Industry: Sydney's Multimedia Firms

This paper analyses the multimedia industry in Sydney. It seeks to understand whether the emergence of the industry has involved dense horizontal and vertical inter‐firm linkages characteristic of an industrial cluster, or whether the industry has grown because of general urbanisation economies related to such factors as skilled labour supply and market demand. The industry is highly concentrated in and around central Sydney. This provides the best access to firms’ main clients, notably advertising companies and other multimedia firms. It also reflects the centralised location of skilled labour such as web designers. While there is evidence of an emerging inner Sydney multimedia cluster which includes graphic design and advertising and related media, the main driver of the industry's development appears to have been general demand from advertising and related media companies, in association with the pool of computer graphics talent generated by these companies.     

Equality‐led Development and the Demand‐ and Supply‐side Effects

This contribution to the Forum Debate on global development focuses on the dimension of functional income distribution between labour and capital and its demand‐side and supply‐side effects. The article summarizes recent literature that has sought to explain the reasons behind the global fall in the labour share. It then discusses the demand‐side effects of the declining wage share on growth, based on the post‐Keynesian/post‐Kaleckian literature. The author presents an alternative policy scenario for the G20 based on a mix of increasing wage share and public investment, before discussing the supply‐side effects of rising inequality. The article concludes with some policy implications for equality‐led development.     

Whose Wealth Is It Anyway? Mozambique's Outstanding Economic Growth with Worsening Rural Poverty

Despite rapid economic growth and massive inflows of aid, rural poverty in Mozambique is worsening. Agricultural production and productivity have not increased in the last decade. Use of chemical fertilizers and other modern technology is at a low level and decreasing. The present development model emphasizes that the role of government and donors is to provide human capital and infrastructure, while the private sector is responsible for economic development and ending poverty. The most recent national surveys confirm what is being seen elsewhere in Africa — that this non‐interventionist strategy does not raise agricultural productivity or reduce poverty. While 80 per cent of Mozambique's population is engaged in agriculture, this sector contributes only 20 per cent of GDP. This suggests that investments in agriculture are likely to generate pro‐poor growth, both to rural and urban dwellers. This policy failure is increasingly recognized, but donors and government have invested too much political capital in the current policy to change easily.     

Housing Market Dynamics Under Stochastic Growth: An Application to the Housing Market in Boulder, Colorado

Recent housing-market studies have modeled slow stock and price adjustment with some success. However, the empirical procedures used in these models break down if housing stocks or prices are driven by stochastic growth. In this paper I suggest an error-correction model for analyzing housing supply and demand under conditions of stochastic growth for a regional housing market. The model is applied to the housing market in Boulder, Colorado from 1981 through 1995—a period of rapid growth in housing values in the area. Long-run housing supply and demand are shown to be inelastic with respect to changes in the price of housing. The results indicate that developers respond more accurately to housing-market disequilibrium attributable to supply-side disturbances than to disturbances generated by changes in the demand for housing. On the other hand, price appreciation is driven primarily by demand disturbances.     

Working holiday makers in Australia: food security,climate change,and the backpacker tax

This commentary considers an often overlooked contribution to food security in Australia—the labour of working holiday makers. Their ability to act as a flexible and mobile temporary workforce is essential to the maintenance of the Australian agricultural industry. Previously, no tax was payable on income below $18,200, but a 2015 proposal to increase their tax rate sparked a vigorous political debate and so revealed their importance to the agricultural industry. A decline in backpacker numbers would cause agriculture to shrink to cope with smaller workforces. But the effects of climate change are expected to further shrink agricultural areas as extreme events and hotter temperatures impact crops, livestock, and the productivity of agricultural workers. Issues that appear manageable when viewed in isolation, such as increases in the tax rate on working holiday makers, become more problematic when viewed in conjunction with other impacts affecting agriculture. Thus, the ‘backpacker tax’ risks making food security harder to maintain at a time when Australia's agricultural system is already vulnerable to climate change.     

LABOUR MOBILITY AND PLANT PERFORMANCE: ON THE (DIS)SIMILARITY BETWEEN LABOUR‐ AND CAPITAL‐INTENSIVE SECTORS FOR KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION AND PRODUCTIVITY

In this article we analyse differences between capital‐ and labour‐intensive sectors with regard to the impact of workforce composition and labour mobility on plant performance. By the use of geo‐referenced longitudinal employer–employee data on a micro level, we analyse labour flows between plants within and between labour market regions. The analysis is carried out using weighted least squares (WLS) regression analysis combined with additional variance analysis (ANOVA). The results show that there are differences between the sectors with regard to both in‐house workforce composition and type of skill inflow. A high degree of related knowledge in the in‐house workforce has a strong positive effect on plant performance in the labour‐intensive sectors. The analysis of labour inflow indicates that knowledge in the capital‐intensive sectors is localized – only intra‐regional labour flows give rise to increased plant productivity. In the labour‐intensive sectors, the geographic and cognitive dimensions complement one another; similar knowledge needs to be non‐local in order to be beneficial to plant performance, and unrelated knowledge mainly contributes to plant productivity growth when it is local.     

The “Commons” Versus the “Commodity”: Alter‐globalization,Anti‐privatization and the Human Right to Water in the Global South

Abstract: In response to the growth of private sector involvement in water supply management globally, anti‐privatization campaigns for a human right to water have emerged in recent years. Simultaneously, alter‐globalization activists have promoted alternative water governance models through North‐South red‐green alliances between organized labour, environmental groups, women's groups, and indigenous groups. In this paper, I explore these distinct (albeit overlapping) responses to water privatization. I first present a generic conceptual model of market environmentalist reforms, and explore the contribution of this framework to debates over ‘neoliberalizing nature’. This conceptual framework is applied to the case of anti‐privatization activism to elucidate the limitations of the human right to water as a conceptual counterpoint to privatization, and as an activist strategy. In contrast, I argue that alter‐globalization strategies—centred on concepts of the commons—are more conceptually coherent, and also more successful as activist strategies. The paper concludes with a reiteration of the need for greater conceptual precision in our analyses of neoliberalization, for both academics and activists.     

FORCED LABOUR AND RISING FERTILITY IN COLONIAL INDONESIA

This paper presents empirical evidence to support the labour demand theory of rising reproductive fertility in colonial Indonesia. According to this theory, birth rates in nineteenth-century Java rose as a direct result of the labour burden imposed upon women and their children by the Cultivation System of compulsory labour services. The theory was conceived in the 1970s as a reaction against the assumption that rapid population growth in colonial Indonesia must have reflected improvements in economic and health conditions under Dutch rule. The difficulty of testing the labour demand theory empirically, together with its counterintuitive quality and its ideological origins, led it to be sceptically received. However, newly-assembled statistical data from Minahasa—one of the few areas outside Java where compulsory cultivation services were introduced in the nineteenth century—suggest that the theory is in fact correct. The existence of a positive link between labour demand and fertility helps explain not only the paradox of population growth without rapid economic growth or public health improvements in nineteenth-century Java, but also the ‘involutionary’ cycle of agricultural intensification, population growth and impoverishment which seems to be a recurrent feature of Southeast Asian history.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

LABOUR FORCE GROWTH IN SINGAPORE

Singapore's labour force participation rates are at high levels. Age-specific rates, especially of men, have approached those of developed countries. The current very low total fertility rate of 1.25 would have major implications for Singapore's labour supply and economy in a closed population. Multi-pronged approaches such as measures to increase fertility, increase labour force participation, and to augment the local workforce with migrants are discussed. In the context of Singapore's physical land constraint, continued growth in the labour force in the long term would be challenging. Future gross domestic product growth is likely to be more sustainable via labour productivity growth. Identifying new niche areas of growth and having a nimble and quality workforce would become more important than labour force growth.     

KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS,ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,AND SKILL INTENSITY OF CHILEAN MANUFACTURING PLANTS*

ABSTRACT Knowledge spillovers are an important source of economic growth. In this study, we identify a mechanism through which knowledge spillovers occur among plants in the Chilean manufacturing industry. A plant‐level production function is estimated with the absorptive‐capacity hypothesis, that is, employment of skilled workers is a key channel through which knowledge is transmitted across plants. Results show that a plant's productivity from spillovers increases with its skill intensity, which is measured by the share of skilled workers in total employment. We also find that plants in a region with a large knowledge stock increase their skill intensity to benefit more from spillovers. Our results suggest that an increase in regional knowledge stock is the most effective policy to improve a plant's productivity. However, policies that encourage a plant to employ high skill‐intensive production also enhance its productivity.     

Time,Waste, and the City: The Rise of the Environmental Industry

In many US cities, especially those in the Rust Belt, the environmental goods and services (EGS) industry has played a significant role in restructuring local economies to promote new, flexible, and “creative” forms of service‐based labour. And yet much of the environmental work conducted in these cities has been directed at an industrial past, cleaning up the waste left over from long‐departed manufacturing sectors. Returning to David Harvey's earlier work on the urban process, this paper develops a theory of waste switching that situates EGS within a larger renegotiation of space and time across city landscapes. This theory is fleshed out in case studies of the EGS industry in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee, where new cycles of accumulation have been built on refuse, toxins, and dead labour. These “toxi‐cities” and their cleanup challenge traditional conceptions of urbanisation as spatially—but also temporally—bounded.     

The effect of congestion and agglomeration on multifactor productivity growth in Dutch regions

It is well known that labour productivity growth in Europe isslowing down, against an increasing growth rate in the US. TheNetherlands is one of the countries in Europe with the lowestgrowth rates of productivity. This article looks at this phenomenonfrom a regional perspective and presents the results of a growthaccounting exercise applied to regional industry data of TheNetherlands between 1995 and 2002. We find that slow productivitygrowth in The Netherlands is particularly situated in the economiccore regions and is caused by slow multifactor productivity(mfp) growth. A substantial part of this slow mfp-growth canbe explained by the fact that positive agglomeration advantagesare overruled by negative congestion effects caused by trafficjams.     

Women in the Urban Informal Sector: Perpetuation of Meagre Earnings

The argument of exploitation of women workers in the labour market notwithstanding, this article examines whether women in India are unable to participate fully in the labour market because they are required to combine their household activities with income yielding jobs. They are constrained to work in the neighbourhood of their residence (the location of the residence having been decided upon by male family members), and can access jobs only through informal contacts (which usually means they end up in jobs similar to those of the contact persons), both of which reduce their bargaining power considerably. The tendency for specialized activities to be concentrated in different geographic locations of a city further restricts the possibility of women workers being engaged in diverse jobs and thus aggravates the situation of an excess supply of labour in a particular activity. Constrained choice, limited contacts of women and physical segmentation of the labour market perpetuate forces that entrap women workers in a low‐income situation with worse outcomes than those of their male counterparts. Consequently with greater intensity of work they still continue to receive low wages, while residual participation in the labour market restricts the possibilities of skill formation and upward mobility. All of these factors offer a substantive basis for policy recommendations.     

The Macro‐Economic Effects of Directed Credit Policies: A Real‐Financial CGE Evaluation for India

The effectiveness of directed credit programmes as an instrument for economic development is the subject of considerable debate. However, the focus of this debate is almost exclusively on the intra‐sectoral effects of directed credit and its adverse effects on financial sector performance, neglecting possible spillover effects on demand, production and investment in the rest of the economy. This article tries to fill this gap by examining the macro‐economic effects of directed credit in India with the help of a novel real‐financial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Focusing on credit rather than money, the model goes beyond earlier modelling approaches by (1) incorporating directed credit policy and credit rationing; (2) recognizing the dual role of credit for working capital and investment; and (3) allowing for switches between credit‐constrained, capacity‐constrained and demand‐constrained regimes. The results from short‐ and medium‐term simulation experiments with the model indicate that, when credit market failures result in rationing as in India’s agricultural and small‐scale industrial sectors, the macro‐economic effects of directed credit are likely to be significant and positive.     

On wine,rent and regions: labour market change and housing market processes in non‐metropolitan South Australia

This article reports on research into the relationship between labour market change and the private rental market in non‐metropolitan South Australia for the period 1990–2000. Using Small Area Labour Market data, Census data and records from the Residential Tenancy Tribunal the study investigates the capacity of the private rental market to respond to labour market and population growth. The article finds that there is considerable ‘stickiness’ within the private rental market in regional South Australia and that there has been a limited supply response to changing levels of demand. This has contributed to housing and labour shortages in some regions and over supply in others. Each circumstance has generated considerable dilemmas for public policy. The reasons underlying the imperfect market response are considered and the implications for the future development of the regions are discussed.     

Globalisation Lived Locally: A Labour Geography Perspective on Control,Conflict and Response among Workers in Kerala

Abstract: Supported by the labour geography framework, I analyse how spatial practices of labour shape the economic geography of capitalism, by looking into a model not at a global but at a very local scale of organisation and showing its effectiveness while confronting social actors organised at global or extra‐local scales. Questioning global stereotypes on economic responses to globalisation, I argue that labour becomes actively involved in the very process of globalisation and the expansion of capital, empirically demonstrating the relevance of this in the globalisation literature. I deal with one region—Kerala—and processes in its labour markets, taking the case of apparel workers in an export‐promoting industrial park.     

The problem of “technological unemployment” in the industrial research of the 1930's in the United States∗

The article surveys the findings and debates about “technological unemployment” carried out in the 1920's and 1930's in the United States. The huge productivity increases of the 1920's had sizable labour‐displacing effects, which were not matched by the job‐creating trends of prosperity. Unemployment was therefore a sizable and observable phenomenon as early as the late 1920's, while manufacturing employment shrank. After 1929, it was found that the Depression had hit production and investment hard, but productivity per man‐hour continued to increase. This meant that, because of the increases in population of working age and because of technological progress, in the late 1930's it would have been necessary to outgrow the levels of investment and production of 1929 in order to bring unemployment down to the 1929 rate. Even the recovery of 1937 remained much below those levels: the cause was seen in the behavior of large, concentrated industrial firms that administered prices and only applied technological advances in order to reduce costs. Their limited spending did not foster enough demand to move the economy out of the slump. The recovery was eventually brought about not by spontaneous, market‐driven economic behaviour, but by the deus‐ex‐machina of war‐induced Government spending.

A separate study of the theories of technological progress out‐distancing the job‐creating trends of prosperity is in preparation.     

Global Value Chain Participation and the Labour Share: Industry-level Evidence from Emerging Economies

Participation in global value chains (GVCs) has been proposed as a central means for emerging economies to develop and technologically upgrade. However, the effects of GVCs on income distribution in the global South remain underexplored. This article presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the labour share in seven emerging economies for the period 1995–2014. Drawing on industry-level data from global input-output tables, the authors focus on how GVC participation — in particular offshoring of production from advanced to emerging economies — affects the labour share of different skill groups within manufacturing and service industries. They also estimate the effects of GVCs on productivity, real wages and the capital–value added ratio, to shed further light on the channels through which GVCs affect the labour share. In both industry groups, findings show that integration into GVCs with advanced economies has a negative effect on the labour share in emerging economies, particularly for medium-skilled workers. In contrast, higher union density and government consumption spending have positive effects on the labour share. Thus, labour in emerging economies loses out relative to capital as production becomes more integrated across borders.